Sondaggio ABC News su 1711 iracheni (margine errore 2,5%):
- 75% hanno fiducia nelle elezioni
- due terzi si
aspettano un milglioramento nei prossimi mesi - due terzi sono contrari alla presenza di truppe straniere
- solo 44$ ritengono che situazione Irak sia migliore che
prima della guerra. - Modifica a legge elettorale attribuisce a ciascuna regione
n° seggi in proporzione a popolazione, non più votanti: i sunniti dovrebbero
ottenere una cinquantina di seggi, indipendentemente dal tasso di
partecipazione, al posto dei 17 attuali. - Tra le questioni centrali per
futuro governo è il ministero Interni, ora detenuto da sciita capo di
milizia, Bayan Jabr, formatosi alla scuola dei Guardiani della
Rivoluzione iraniani. - Sunniti chiedono il ministero; esponenti sciiti e
curdi si sono detti disposti a discuterne. L’ambasciatore US Khalilzad
si è proposto come mediatore per la formazione del prossimo governo (previsto
per gennaio-febbraio).
Minority Party Could Claim
Greater Role in Government,
Pose Thorny New Dilemmas
By FARNAZ FASSIHI in Baghdad, Iraq, and YOCHI
J. DREAZEN in Washington
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
December 14, 2005; Page A1
After largely sitting out two elections this
year, Sunni Arabs likely will vote in big numbers in Iraq’s parliamentary
contest tomorrow, claiming a greater role in its next government and possibly
reshaping its political landscape.
Whether that means more stability in a
country torn by ethnic strife and a violent insurgency is the election’s
essential question. There are some promising signs: Sunni leaders have strongly
encouraged voting, and a high turnout in key areas could win their community —
about a fifth of Iraq’s population — as many as 50 of the parliament’s 275
seats. That could persuade some Sunnis — who are believed to make up the bulk
of insurgents — to lay down arms.
Still, the new government will face steep
hurdles in convincing Sunnis they can accomplish more through politics than
violence. Shiites and Kurds still will dominate the government and are likely
to resist many Sunni demands, including rewriting parts of the new
constitution.
Sunnis, who monopolized political power under
ousted leader Saddam Hussein, have so far mostly sat out the U.S.-led
post-invasion political process. Many prominent Sunnis have been excluded by
Shiite and Kurdish leaders because they were too close to Mr. Hussein. Others
have snubbed the process to protest the U.S.-led occupation. Some who have
taken formal roles have been killed.
National turnout in tomorrow’s vote, the
first to choose a full, four-year government, is expected to be as high as 70%,
exceeding the level of the year’s first election in January. U.S. military
commanders say extensive security measures — including sealing the country’s
borders and banning vehicular traffic — will make it difficult for insurgents
to disrupt the balloting.
In an ABC News poll this week, nearly 75%
of Iraqis expressed confidence in the elections, and two-thirds said they
expect conditions in their country to improve in coming months. But the poll of
1,711 Iraqis, which has a margin of error of 2.5%, also found two-thirds
opposing the presence of U.S. and other foreign troops, and just 44% believing
Iraq is better off now than it was before the war began in 2003. The poll
was conducted with Time magazine and other media outlets.
Going forward, officials have set several
crucial benchmarks. They include:
- The ability of Iraqi politicians to name a
new government quickly, avoiding the months of drift that followed January’s
elections; - Whether the powerful Interior Ministry,
which oversees Iraq’s security, goes to a candidate acceptable to the Sunnis or
to a hard-line Shiite; - The ability — and desire — of the
government to stem possible Shiite Islamist pushes to make Iraq a more
theocratic country or to strengthen its ties to Iran; - Thether the government seeks a specific
timetable for drawing down U.S. forces in Iraq.
The first may be the most important.
"It’s a mistake for anyone to declare victory just because elections
happened here," said an American diplomat who spoke on the condition of
not being named. "The sealing step…is government formation."
The Bush administration, which concedes it
was too hands-off after prior elections, is mounting a concerted effort to
quickly form a government. The push is being led by U.S. Ambassador to Iraq
Zalmay Khalilzad. The goal is to have a new prime minister and cabinet named in
late January or early February.
Mr. Khalilzad has taken a different approach
than his predecessor, John Negroponte, who, while forceful in private, rarely
criticized Iraqi politicians publicly, according to one Western diplomat
familiar with both men. Since arriving earlier this year, Mr. Khalilzad has
been far more outspoken. Yesterday, he told reporters he would be willing to mediate
talks if asked by the Iraqis, a role he successfully played in marathon talks
over the constitution earlier this year.
U.S. officials also are willing to shuttle
specific proposals about the allocation of leadership posts among Iraqi’s
competing groups, diplomats say. While Shiites and Kurds are expected to again
win big in the election, each group likely will fall short of the roughly 90
seats needed to ensure it can secure key posts for its candidates. That could
turn the Sunnis into kingmakers.
Diplomats say leaders already have begun
exploratory talks about the next government. One diplomat familiar with the
matter said Sunni leaders have talked with former prime minister Ayad Allawi, a
Shiite, about backing his bid to return to that post.
One reason Sunnis likely will win more seats
this time around: an electoral-law change that apportions seats to each of
Iraq’s 18 districts according to its population. The change means Sunnis, who
hold only 17 seats in the interim parliament, are effectively guaranteed a
minimal number in Sunni-dominated regions even if turnout is low, perhaps as
many as 50. That would gain them a greater voice in picking the prime
minister and other key posts — and their biggest government role since the
Hussein era.
The electorate clearly is more involved this
time. Posters of candidates adorn the walls of the capital, while television
and radio regularly are broadcasting campaign ads for various political slates.
Candidates are far bolder than they were a year ago in campaigning, some
even traveling around the country.
In January’s campaign, the names of
candidates on most lists were withheld from voters due to fear of retaliation,
while insurgents threatened voters. That hasn’t happened this time, and the difference is not lost on Iraqis.
Still, post-election wrangling is likely to
begin quickly. Sunnis already are talking about amending key parts of the
constitution drafted by the current government of Kurds and Shiites, such
as the creation of a federal Iraq with a decentralized power structure.
Sunnis, viewing themselves as an embattled minority, prefer a strong central
government. That means an issue Kurds and Shiites both consider settled could
be reopened.
Sunni leaders also will push for control of
the Interior Ministry, which sits at the center of a recent spate of
prisoner-abuse allegations, or at least ensure that the next Interior minister
is sympathetic to their concerns. The ministry currently is headed by Bayan
Jabr, a hardline Shiite militia leader who was trained by the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard. Shiite and Kurdish leaders have said they would
consider the possibility of a Sunni heading the ministry.
"The first thing we want to do if we
become a part of the government is be in charge of security," said Tariq
al-Hashemi, head of the Iraqi Islamic Party, the main party leading
the Sunni bloc in elections. "We feel the Sunnis have been wrongly
targeted and abused."
Sunnis also are expected to press for a
timetable for the withdrawal of foreign troops. Salih al-Mutlaq, head of the
nationalist Sunni slate, Iraqi Front for National Dialogue, said his
slate’s priority is "ending the occupation, liberating Iraq from foreign
forces."
Kurds and Shiites, however, have repeatedly
voiced concern about the risk of Iraq descending into civil war if U.S. troops
leave early.