Taiwan approva uno storico accordo commerciale con la Cina /la Taiwan Cooperative Bank alla ricerca di opportunità in Cina
By TING-I TSAI
JOY C. SHAW, J.R. WU e TING-I TSAI
– Il parlamento di Taiwan (controllato dal partito filocinese Kuomintang)
● ha approvato l’ampio accordo commerciale con la Cina (ECFA, Accordo Quadro di Cooperazione Economica) siglato il 29 giugno,
o [Asia Times:] che avrà riflessi sociali e politici oltre che sui rapporti economico-commerciali.
o per entrambi i paesi, i dazi delle merci concordate – ora al 15% – caleranno al 10% o meno nel primo anno, al %5 o meno nel secondo anno, e a zero nel terzo anno.
o 267 merci cinesi (valore $2,86 MD, il 10,5% dell’export verso Taiwan) possono da subito essere esportate a Taiwan con dazi ridotti o nulli; viceversa, 539 prodotti di Taiwan (valore $13,83 MD, pari a circa il 16,1% dell’export verso la Cina) potranno entrare in Cina senza dazi;
o la Cina apre 11 settori dei servizi a società taiwanesi (banche, commercialisti, assicurazioni, ospedali, manutenzione degli aerei … )
o maggiori possibilità di investimento reciproco, i capitali cinesi potranno investire in diversi settori a Taiwan, compreso immobiliare, banche, Borsa e manifatturiero.
o Le banche di Taiwan, che devono competere nel sovraffollato mercato domestico, da anni aspettavano l’apertura del mercato cinese. Ora, ad. es. la statale Taiwan Cooperative Bank, che gestisce la maggior rete bancaria di Taiwan, sta iniziando i negoziati con 4 banche cinesi per una cooperazione strategica. Taiwan Cooperative intende aprire nei prossimi mesi la sua prima filiale nel Sud-est Cina, Suzhou, per servire circa 8000 imprese di Taiwan; previste filiali anche in altre città cinesi, come Chongqing, Shenyang, Zhengzhou, Dalian and Chengdu.
o Le banche di Taiwan, che hanno filiali in Cina da due anni, possono operare in Cina con la divisa locale, lo yuan;
o sarà negoziabile quasi tutto eccetto i prodotti agricoli e le industrie classificate di sicurezza nazionale.
– Dopo a ripresa economica dalla crisi finanziaria, il primo trimestre 2010 ha segnato la maggiore crescita di Taiwan in 32 anni.
o L’economia di Taiwan è centrata sull’export; +5% previsto per quest’anno; PIL secondo trimestre 2010 previsto + 10,5% sull’anno precedente.
o La Cina è il maggior partner commerciale di Taiwan, il suo maggior sbocco per gli investimenti; in Cina sta aumentando il numero di taiwanesi.
● Approvato il Trattato, Taiwan sollecita tuttavia gli USA a fornire aerei militari e sottomarini aggiornati (compresi F16 C/D e sottomarini diesel), a seguito del rapporto del Pentagono sull’aumento degli armamenti della Cina,
o compreso l’arsenale missilistico cinese nello stretto di Taiwan;
o il ministero della Difesa di Taiwan stima che i missili cinesi passeranno dai 1 400 attuali a 2000; la Cina non esclude l’utilizzo della forza per riprendersi Taiwan, persa nel 1949.
o Nel 1979 il Congresso americano approvò il Taiwan Relations Act, legge che impegna gli Usa a fornire a Taiwan “armi difensive”.
– Secondo Chung-hua Institution for Economic Research, think tank governativa di Taiwan, una volta implementato l’accordo potrebbe incentivare la crescita economica di 1,65-1,72 punti percentuali;
o e creare 257 000-263 000 nuovi posti di lavoro a Taiwan.
o Senza un accordo di libero scambio con la Cina, Taiwan non potrà competere con gli altri partner commerciali della Cina, che vi accedono senza dazi.
– L’opposizione parlamentare è contro l’accordo, che la Cina userebbe per raggiungere l’obiettivo politico della riunificazione di Taiwan.
– Il DPP (Partito Progressista Democratico), che è per l’indipendenza di Taiwan, non è di principio contro un accordo economico con la Cina, ma si oppone al ECFA, perché intempestivo, in una fase in cui danneggia industrie e lavoratori di Taiwan. Da un sondaggio DPP il 70% della popolazione pensa che l’accordo beneficerà solo i maggiori gruppi economici, non i cittadini comuni.
o Le forze contrarie all’accordo (compreso il DPP) temono che Taiwan venga inondata da merci, e forse anche da lavoratori cinesi, a basso costo;
o gli strati impiegatizi temono l’aumento dei prezzi immobiliari; e i liberi professionisti temono la concorrenza cinese.
o Si prevede che DDP assumerà una posizione più centrista sugli scambi economici e commerciali con la Cina, dato che buona parte dei suoi elettori (tra cui esportatori di frutta e industrie nel Sud) ha bisogno di commerciare con la Cina.
o Da parte sua Pechino vorrà ingraziarsi il DPP, sapendo che in futuro potrebbe andare al governo.
o Nelle presidenziali del 2000 con Chen Shui-bian il DPP pose termine ai cinque decenni di governo del Kuomintang, sconfitto di nuovo nel 2004, con una campagna indipendentista e anti-Cina, che potrebbe non essere più valida come futura arma elettorale;
– Dalla vittoria elettorale del Kuomintang nel 2008, Taiwan e la Cina hanno lanciato collegamenti diretti per trasporti e posta, aumentati i turisti cinesi a Taiwan.
– Le lezioni amministrative di novembre saranno una verifica dell’impatto del ECFA sull’elettorato.
– In ogni caso, dato che l’ECFA avvicinerà economicamente Taiwan alla Cina, l’isola ne diventerà anche economicamente più dipendente;
o il trattato rafforzerà l’influenza politica dei circoli economici filo-cinesi (e dei cinesi che hanno investito a Taiwan) già attenti a non irritare Pechino su questioni umanitarie.
o L’esperienza di Hong Kong, ex colonia britannica, tornata cinese nel 1997, ha dimostrato che i capitali cinesi e la maggiore integrazione con il mercato cinese possono avere molta influenza sulle relazioni.
Un ricercatore dell’università di Taipei prevede che nei prossimi 10 anni ci sarà una graduale e pacifica riunificazione con la Cina, come Hong Kong, anche se non di nome.
Trade deal casts shadow on Taiwan
– TAIPEI – The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), a landmark trade pact Taiwan signed with mainland China in late June, is set to have an impact across Taiwanese society and politics well beyond increasing business between the former foes facing each other across the Taiwan Strait.
– Taiwan’s opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DDP), which favors Taiwan’s independence, is not strictly opposed to an economic exchange agreement with China, but was strongly against signing the ECFA on the grounds that the timing was not right and the agreement would hurt Taiwan’s industries and workers.
– With time, however, the DPP is likely to move toward a more centrist position on closer economic exchange and trade with China, say analysts, because it has little choice. Many of its constituents, including fruit exporters and industries in the south where DDP’s supporters concentrate, also need trade with the mainland.
In recent months, DPP officials have not flatly ruled out such the possibility of meeting Chinese officials in the mainland in the near future, as speculated in Taiwan’s media.
– For its part, Beijing will be eager to woo the DPP, for it knows that in a democracy, power can easily transfer from one party to another in elections.
– Beijing has long said it is open to negotiating with political parties and individuals in Taiwan, as long as they are not bent on pushing for independence for the island. The DPP also needs China’s cooperation in the economy to win elections, as economic issues are the bread and butter issues for voters.
– But while both sides will probably wish to establish a channel for negotiations, if one does not already exist, in order for there to be open contact and negotiations, the two sides will have to overcome their differences over how they see Taiwan’s status. If DDP officials do go to Beijing, they may have to tone down their rhetoric about Taiwan independence – and this may risk losing some of their hardcore pro-independence supporters.
– The DPP’s Chen Shui-bian won a historic victory in the 2000 presidential election to end the Kuomintang’s (KMT) five decades of rule, and again defeated his KMT challenger in his reelection in 2004 by mainly using anti-China rhetoric and putting forward Taiwan independence as a major theme in his election strategy. But it can be expected that the DPP can no longer use this as an election weapon.
– One gauge of the popularity of the ECFA with the electorate will be the mayoral elections in five municipalities in Taiwan in November. The race for the top seat in each of the island’s five biggest cities is considered a bellwether for the 2012 presidential election. Beijing will be eager to see incumbent Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou is sure secure reelection and is therefore likely to continue giving economic concessions to Taiwan.
If the public perceives the benefits of closer economic ties with China as outweighing the disadvantages, this can work to the KMT’s favor. But with such a short time since the signing of the ECFA and so much uncertainty about its impact, the pact may not yet be a blessing for the party.
– One thing is certain. As the ECFA brings Taiwan closer economically to China, the island will inevitably become more economically dependent on the mainland, which will make it increasingly difficult for Taiwan to assert independence even if the island would one day choose to do so.
Ma has repeatedly assured the public that the ECFA is an economic, not political, pact, and has pledged he will not discuss unification with China as long as he is in office. However, this does not ease immediate concerns that the ECFA may influence Taiwan’s politics, society, culture and democratic way of life.
– The trade deal may further increase the already powerful political influence of Taiwan’s pro-China businesses and mainlanders who have invested in the island. This could in turn result in more effective pressure on Taiwan’s central and local governments to bow to Beijing on various issues.
– Last year, hotel and tourism industry officials in the traditionally pro-independence city of Kaohsiung, in southern Taiwan, urged its mayor not to show a film about exiled Uyghur activist Rebiya Kadeer for fear of losing mainland tourists. Beijing, which blames Kadeer for last year’s riots in its western Uyghur-populated Xinjiang region, had objected to the film being shown. DPP mayor Chen Chu eventually gave the go-ahead for the screening of the film.
As seen in China’s response to other countries taking actions of which it disapproves – such as the United States selling weapons to Taiwan or hosting visits by the Dalai Lama – Beijing can easily take away what it gives. Tourism industry officials in Kaohsiung reported suffering a lost in Chinese tourists after the film was shown and after the city invited the Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama to visit earlier last year.
– The experience of Hong Kong, the former British territory which returned to Chinese sovereignty in 1997, has shown that Chinese money and increasing integration to the Chinese market can have a big impact on relations. Even some Hong Kong media practice self-censorship, especially those owned by tycoons who have investments in China.
Increasingly, Taiwan’s government, like that of other countries, may find it difficult to separate its economic and political relations with China, analysts say.
– "Because mainland China’s influence is so strong, it will exert a lot of pressure on Taiwan," said Joseph Cheng, a political science professor at City University in Hong Kong. "This is also related to China’s growing international influence. This happens in France. This happens in the United States. That kind of pressure certainly would become greater and greater."
Even so, "Taiwan is aware of this kind of pressure, so there’s a lot of self-awareness and so it’s easier for Taiwan to be able to deal with that," Cheng said. "Beijing is also aware that if it puts too much pressure on Taiwan, it will harm its charm offensive. But the big question is whether China will eventually be democratic, so it won’t be a threat."
Analysts agree that regardless, the trade deal could gradually narrow the gap in understanding between people and governments on both sides as there will be much more interaction than before. For instance, more government officials, business leaders and ordinary people from one side will be visiting the other.
– "If you look forward 10 years from now, Taiwan will likely go toward gradual, peaceful unification with China, like Hong Kong, in all but name," said Sung Kuo-chen, a research fellow specializing in Taiwan-China relations at the National Chengchi University in Taipei. "It will become a Chinese Taipei [a name China agrees for Taiwan to use in international activities]. It’s because China is so big, it’s so powerful politically and economically, Taiwan will gradually become Sinicized. There may be some resistance, but it’s the reality."
– Sung added: "It’s already the trend. As more investments, more mutual trust, more business contacts, more direct flights occur between the two sides – to a point where you can go to work in the morning in China, and come home to Taiwan in the evening – it’s inevitable, but the government won’t admit this."
He and others believe the ECFA is a step toward unification, but it won’t be the last. "There will be a long way to go afterwards, but it will go toward that result," Sung said.
President Ma, in an effort to ease people’s concern about unification with China, has vowed to safeguard Taiwan’s sovereignty and has said the deal can be canceled anytime the island’s interests are in jeopardy. He urged people to have faith in Taiwan’s democracy, Taiwan’s people, and its free press.
– "Everybody has to understand that Taiwan is not like Hong Kong. We are an independent country with full sovereignty. Taiwan’s future will be decided by its 23 million people," Ma told a press conference before the deal was signed.
"Never underestimate Taiwan’s democracy and press freedom. There are things that Taiwan can do to really strengthen our democracy and really solidify our sovereignty," the president said. "I think our press freedom and other things will help. So I keep telling people, you have to trust Taiwan’s people and Taiwan’s democracy. I think that will have a very important power in making Taiwan free and democratic."
Still, many people in Taiwan believe the island must begin to prepare for the possible outcomes of integrating the Taiwanese and Chinese economies.
– Many analysts and President Ma believe economic integration could pave the way for long-term peace between the two sides, partly because it would make military conflict more costly. They believe the agreement could help stabilize China-Taiwan relations, and eventually remove one of the two flash points in Asia, the other being the Korean peninsula.
"In the past, the two sides had political disputes," said Sung. The trade agreement "allows both sides in one breath to break through that. More and more people will travel between the two sides; both sides’ understanding will increase, both sides’ mutual trust will increase, and this will reduce cross-strait hostility and will be helpful toward peace. It’s because they will be very integrated.”
– However, a journal published by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense this year indicated that China is still increasing its buildup of missiles across the Taiwan Strait, with many aimed in Taiwan’s direction.
– The number of Chinese missiles is expected to reach about 2,000 this year, up from the present estimate of around 1,400.
– Taiwan hopes to buy more weaponry from the United States to strengthen its military muscle to defend the island from a possible China invasion.
The this year’s trade agreement reduces tariffs on exports from both sides and allows unprecedented access to each other’s markets.
– Around 250 types of mainland products will immediately be able to enter Taiwan with reduced or no tariffs. Beijing, reflecting its concern to avoid a backlash in the island it hopes to reunify with one day, allowed a greater number of Taiwanese products – around 500 – to enter the mainland tariff free.
– The agreement will also eventually allow many more businesses from each side to invest in the other. That means Chinese capital can eventually invest in many sectors in Taiwan, including property, banking, stocks, and manufacturing. Other than farm products and industries related to national security, almost everything else is up for negotiation.
– Opponents of the trade deal, including the DPP, believe it will result in Taiwan being flooded by cheaper mainland goods and also even eventually workers, causing job losses, and increasing the island’s wealth gap.
– White collar workers fear property prices will skyrocket, making home purchases unaffordable for many young people, and that medical and other professional jobs will be lost to Chinese competitors, even though the agreement at present does not allow mainland workers to work on the island.
– "According to our public opinion polls, 70% of the people feel the ECFA will only benefit the elite business community, not ordinary people," said Hsiao Bi-khim, the DPP’s international affairs director.
– The impression from talking to people on the island is that they do have many concerns. Nevertheless, supporters of the agreement, including President Ma and big businesses seeking greater access to China’s market, believe the ECFA will boost trade, economic growth, investments and jobs in Taiwan.
– They said it will also keep the island from becoming marginalized and from losing out to its competitors. China is Taiwan’s biggest trade partner and export market.
– Without tariff-free trade with China, Taiwan will not be able to compete with China’s other trade partners, whose exports will enter the mainland tariff free.
President Ma has pledged to take a gradual approach to tariff reductions on sensitive products and to set aside NT$3 billion (US$93 million) over the next 10 years to help industries and workers vulnerable to mainland competition. But he has insisted that more jobs will be created rather than lost as a result of ECFA and that the trade deal will be good for Taiwan in the long run.
The government said it is expected to boost trade in the export-dependent economy by 5%, raise economic growth by about 1.6% and create about 260,000 jobs.
President Ma said signing the agreement will also enable Taiwan to negotiate free-trade agreements with other countries, which it has so far been unable to do due to objections from Beijing.
But FTA negotiations take a long time, and so far there seems no real progress in Taiwan’s attempts to sign such agreements with its other trade partners.
– Nor has China said it would support the island signing free-trade agreements with other countries. China still considers the island as its own province, though it has been ruled separately since the end of a civil war in 1949. Beijing also has not agreed to remove missiles and has not renounced the use of force to eventually reunify with the island.
Cindy Sui is a freelance journalist based in Taipei.
Taiwan Approves Historic Trade Deal With China
By JOY C. SHAW, J.R. WU and TING-I TSAI
– Taiwan’s legislature Tuesday approved a wide-ranging trade pact with China, removing the final hurdle to a historic accord that has stirred controversy on the island but will reduce tariffs on hundreds of products on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and deepen economic ties between the one-time enemies.
– The legislature was widely expected to approve the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement even as opposition Taiwanese lawmakers lobbied against the pact, which they said China will use to ultimately reach its political aim of reunifying Taiwan with mainland China.
– The approval came as Taiwan Tuesday urged the U.S. to sell it upgraded military jets and submarines, in response to a Pentagon report that concluded China’s arms build-up is giving it a wider military advantage over the island.
"We hope the U.S. can soon approve the sales of defensive weapons in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act, including F16 C/Ds and diesel submarines," said Yu Sy-tue, spokesman for Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.
– The Taiwan Relations Act, passed by the U.S. Congress in 1979, requires the U.S. to provide the island with "arms of a defensive character".
– The Legislative Yuan, Taiwan’s parliament, is dominated by the China-friendly Kuomintang Party. The approval of the ECFA–carried by a live television broadcast of the vote–comes after representatives of China and Taiwan signed the accord on June 29.
– Taiwan government think tank Chung-hua Institution for Economic Research earlier said that once the pact is fully implemented it could raise Taiwan’s economic growth by 1.65 to 1.72 percentage points. It also expects the trade pact to generate 257,000-263,000 new jobs in Taiwan.
– Taiwan’s economy recovered from the global financial crisis with year-on-year growth in the first quarter this year reaching a 32-year high, but the momentum is slowing amid uncertainties about the strength of the global recovery. The export-oriented economy’s gross domestic product in the second quarter is expected to expand 10.5% from a year earlier, easing from the first quarter’s 13.3% pace, according to a Dow Jones Newswires economists’ poll.
– Taiwan’s main opposition Democratic Progressive Party has also criticized the trade pact, saying it will take away jobs of low-income people, and that the KMT-led government’s negotiation with China has not been transparent enough.
– "Economically, ECFA benefits only a minority–those big corporations–while most general public and laborers would fare worse," DPP lawmaker Gao Jyh-peng said after the vote. Mr. Gao reiterated that the wide-ranging trade pact will make Taiwan dependent on China.
"In the future it will lead in the direction of reunification," Mr. Gao said.
– China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner, its largest investment destination, and now also home to a growing number of Taiwanese people.
– After decades of hostility, the trade agreement comes after several years of increasing economic ties between Taiwan and China, removing many of the remaining barriers to cross-strait trade and investment.
– Nonetheless, China hasn’t ruled out the use of force to reunite Taiwan with the Chinese mainland. The two sides split in 1949 after a civil war.
– Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou has said ECFA will help the island integrate more with the regional economy, arguing the deal will make it easier for Taiwan to sign free-trade agreements with other countries, which have been afraid of riling China.
Since Mr. Ma came to power in 2008, Taiwan and China have launched direct transport and postal links and boosted the number of Chinese tourists coming to Taiwan.
– Chinatrust Financial Holding Co. President Daniel Wu said last week that his firm is looking for a partner in China to help expand its mainland business, while SinoPac Securities, a unit of SinoPac Financial Holdings Co., this week agreed to sign an intent to cooperate on business information exchange with China’s Guosen Securities Co.
– Industrial Bank of Taiwan Monday said its recent decision to sell its asset management unit to a subsidiary of Taishin Financial Holding Co. will allow it to focus on its core business and planned expansion into China. IBT said it wants to set up a representative office in the Chinese municipality of Tianjin and a financial leasing company in the region around Shanghai, as well as look for a suitable strategic partner for cooperation in the investment trust and securities business.
– However, regulatory hurdles remain in Taiwan and China before financial institutions on both sides will be able to directly invest in each other.
– Under ECFA, China agreed to open 11 service sectors to Taiwan companies, such as banking, accounting, aircraft maintenance, insurance and hospitals.
– China will allow Taiwan banks operating on the mainland to conduct business in its local currency, the yuan, after they have established a branch in China for two years. It will conditionally allow the China branches of Taiwan banks to apply to offer yuan loans to China-based Taiwan companies, though banking regulators in China and Taiwan aren’t yet considering allowing banks from the two sides to invest in each other.
– Also under the trade pact, China will reduce tariffs on 539 Taiwanese goods worth $13.83 billion, accounting for around 16.1% of the island’s China-bound exports, while Taiwan will reduce tariffs on 267 Chinese goods worth $2.86 billion, accounting for 10.5% of Chinese exports to Taiwan.
– For both sides, tariffs on the affected goods will drop to 10% or lower in the first year, 5% or lower in the second year, and zero in the third year, from as high as 15% now.
Taiwan Cooperative Seeks Opportunity in China
– TAIPEI — The Taiwan Cooperative Bank, which operates Taiwan’s largest banking network, is in early talks with four Chinese banks on strategic cooperation in areas such as syndicated loans and credit business, Chairman Liu Deng-Chen said on Wednesday.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Liu declined to name the four banks, saying only that they included state-controlled and city commercial banks.
– The government-controlled Taiwan Cooperative Bank is chasing opportunities in China created by a sweeping trade liberalization deal, the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, or ECFA, which passed the Taiwan legislature on Tuesday.
– Mr. Liu, who recently returned from a visit to China, expressed optimism that Taiwan banks have an edge over foreign players such as HSBC Holdings PLC and Citigroup Inc in China.
"We speak the same language and our cultures are similar," he said.
– Taiwan Cooperative plans to open its first branch in China’s Southeastern city of Suzhou to serve the area’s some 8,000 Taiwanese enterprises in the next few months, subject to approval from Chinese banking regulators, Mr. Liu said.
– Taiwan banks are struggling at home in a crowded market and have been waiting for years for a breakthrough in relations across the Taiwan Strait that would allow them to pursue potentially lucrative opportunities on the mainland.
In June, Taiwan and China signed the ECFA, in which Chinese authorities agreed to allow Taiwanese banks to conduct business in local currency once they have set up a branch in China for two years. ECFA will allow the China branches of Taiwanese banks to apply to offer yuan loans to China-based Taiwanese companies if the branches are profitable after the first year of operation.
– Mr. Liu said making a profit from the Suzhou branch is the bank’s first priority next year, as it is considering more branches in Chinese cities, such as Chongqing, Shenyang, Zhengzhou, Dalian and Chengdu.
Taiwan financial institutions are rushing to develop business in China. Chinatrust Financial Holding Co. said last week it is looking for a partner in China to help expand its mainland business, while SinoPac Securities, a unit of SinoPac Financial Holdings Co., announced this week it is working on a business information exchange with China’s Guosen Securities Co.
"We have waited for years to go to China to serve our clients," Mr. Liu said, "This is late, but it is better than never."