Resistenza degli irlandesi alla pressione Ue di accettare un salvataggio
MARCUS WALKER, BRIAN BLACKSTONE e NEIL SHAH
● A sei mesi dalla creazione di un fondo di salvataggio UE+FMI di €750 MD, la crisi del debito UE entra in una nuova fase,
o con l’Irlanda che non cede alla pressione della BCE e dei governi nazionali perché chieda aiuto, nel timore di danneggiare la propria posizione presso gli investitori internazionali, e riluttante a ulteriori misure di austerità condizione di un salvataggio.
o In caso di mutamenti nell’economia irlandese verrebbe colpito l’Investimento estero diretto, che rappresenta il 66% del PIL irlandese, contro il 20% medio della UE.
– La preoccupazione che il blocco monetario si sgretoli,
o viene alimentata dalle pubbliche dichiarazioni del ministro Esteri portoghese che paventa per il Portogallo l’espulsione dalla zona euro, in caso non riesca a far fronte ai suoi problemi economici.
o Se la crisi, finora limitata a paesi piccoli come Grecia e Irlanda, si diffonde a Spagna e Italia, sarà messa a dura prova la capacità della UE di sostenere la situazione;
o Il salvataggio di uno dei grandi UE potrebbe scatenare reazioni politiche in paesi come la Germania, con i cittadini tedeschi contrari a sostenerne il costo.
o Anche un salvataggio precoce dell’Irlanda potrebbe innescare la pressione dei mercati per altri salvataggi.
– Germania e Francia insistono sulla autonomia dell’Irlanda sulla decisione se chiedere o non chiedere aiuto.
– L’Irlanda ha dichiarato di non avere urgenza di pagamento delle obbligazioni statali, e di non essere di fronte ad una crisi di liquidità disponendo di forti riserve in denaro.
Nuova ondata di emigrazione in Irlanda a seguito dello scoppio della bolla immobiliare.
By MARCUS WALKER,BRIAN BLACKSTONE And NEIL SHAH
– Europe’s debt crisis entered a critical new phase as Ireland resisted pressure from the European Central Bank and national governments to seek a bailout amid growing concern that the currency bloc could unravel.
Ireland fiercely denied that it was in bailout talks, and European officials publicly insisted Dublin was under no pressure to seek help.
– Feeding concerns about the euro, Portugal’s foreign minister openly speculated over the weekend that his own country’s debt troubles may ultimately trigger its expulsion from the euro zone. Portugal faces "a scenario of exit from the euro-zone" if it fails to tackle its economic challenges, Foreign Affairs Minister Luis Amado told a Portuguese weekly.
– Greece’s Prime Minister George Papandreou, in a newspaper interview over the weekend, raised the possibility of extending repayment of his country’s €110 billion ($150 billion) bailout—comments that could compound investor fears that the country is headed toward default despite the financial rescue.
Europe’s most pressing concern remained Ireland, however.
– European officials were privately prodding Dublin to put aside national pride and act quickly on a bailout in the hope that doing so will preempt a repeat of the months-long ordeal earlier this year that pushed Greece to the brink of bankruptcy and nearly undid the euro. German and French officials insist the decision to apply for a bailout is Ireland’s alone, a sign that Europe’s larger governments don’t want to appear to be twisting the arm of a smaller member state.
– Ireland is resisting pressure to ask for aid because the move could hurt its standing with international investors, embarrass the government at home, and open the way to external meddling in the country’s financial affairs, observers say.
– The country has stressed that it faces no imminent bond repayments and holds significant cash reserves, so it doesn’t face an immediate crisis of liquidity or solvency despite investors’ recent flight from Irish debt.
– Nevertheless, Irish Justice Minister Dermot Ahern told national radio broadcaster RTE Sunday that he wouldn’t rule out that the country could seek help. The Finance Ministry said Dublin is in talks with European officials about "market conditions."
– As Ireland copes with the aftermath of a large property bust, it faces a new wave of emigration but also innovation, as a group of architects band together to create a micro economy. WSJ’s Andy Jordan reports from Dublin.
– The standoff over Ireland comes as European finance officials prepare to debate possible action at meetings in Brussels that begin on Monday. If European governments fail to agree on a unified approach to the Irish crisis this week, market pressure will likely resume.
– After months of relative calm in the wake of the European Union’s rescue of Greece and the establishment of a bailout fund, signs of deterioration in Ireland, Portugal and other countries have reignited concerns that the EU will be unable to cope with the mounting debt levels in the euro zone’s weakest members.
Reassurances from European leaders late last week that investors wouldn’t be forced to bear the pain of any bailout in the near term helped stabilize the region’s bond markets and the euro on Friday, but policy makers remain concerned that allowing Ireland’s problems to fester could renew the selloff.
– The latest debate comes six months after EU governments established a €750 billion rescue fund with the International Monetary Fund to rescue flagging members of the 16-nation euro currency area.
The ECB and other European policy makers are encouraging Ireland to accept a bailout to restore confidence in its solvency and stop the spread of financial-market turbulence to other euro members, officials said.
– Many European officials believe that early action on Ireland would be better than waiting until markets force the country’s hand, recalling that repeated delays in coming to Greece’s aid this spring led to a near-collapse of investor confidence in the whole euro zone, officials say.
– Until now, the crisis has been mainly limited to smaller countries such as Greece and Ireland with liabilities that are relatively manageable for the EU. If the crisis spread to Spain or Italy, however, the EU’s ability to shoulder a bailout would be severely tested.
Once a country makes a formal aid request, money from the European Financial Stability Facility is available within weeks.
* A euro-zone member can request aid only if it is unable to finance itself at ‘acceptable’ rates.
* A deficit-reduction program must be negotiated with the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund, which, with the ECB, send experts to hammer out details.
* Euro-zone finance ministers must approve the austerity program.
* The 16 euro-zone finance ministers must unanimously approve the loan size, price and duration.
* Once the loan is approved, the EFSF can dispense funds in several working days.
– A rescue effort for one of the bigger countries would face political backlash in countries such as Germany, where citizens are increasingly unwilling to pay debts of other euro members.
– However, some officials from other indebted euro-zone countries worry that an early rescue of Ireland, several months before it faces a possible cash crunch, could backfire by triggering market pressure for other bailouts.
The Irish government is due to present a budget to parliament on Dec. 7. ECB officials worry that, given worsening financial-market jitters in the past two weeks, that may be too long to wait for a concrete deficit-reduction plan.
– ECB officials are advising Dublin that tapping the EU’s emergency-loan facility could help Ireland to enact a credible budget and recapitalize its teetering banking system.
The ECB believes that having IMF and EU oversight of Ireland’s budget—a prerequisite for a bailout—would give added international credibility to Dublin’s austerity measures. The Irish are trying to rein in a budget deficit that is expected to top 30% of gross domestic product this year.
– Ireland’s government remains reluctant to accept the deepened austerity that a bailout would likely entail. An EU-led rescue package would include a tough policy program drawn up in conjunction with the IMF, people familiar with the matter say.
Ireland has repeatedly said it isn’t seeking a bailout from the EU or the IMF. Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan told RTE Radio One Friday that "we have not, contrary to much speculation, applied to join any facility, or avail of any facility."
Ireland’s government continued on Sunday to deny reports it is talking with the EU about accepting emergency aid. That sets the stage for a standoff with some European officials worried about an escalation of the crisis ahead of key meetings of euro-area finance ministers this week.
However, Mr. Lenihan said, "Our European partners are anxious to bring this matter to a resolution," adding that Irish officials are "in constant liaison with the Central Bank and with the [European] Commission."
– Changes in Ireland’s economy could rattle foreign direct investment, which represents over 66% of its GDP, above the roughly 20% average in the EU.
"The line will be held, and strongly held," says Danny McCoy, director-general of the Irish Business and Employers Confederation in Dublin. "Ireland is doing everything it can to keep control of its own destiny."
The big challenge for Prime Minister Brian Cowen’s coalition government is maintaining the support of key lawmakers from the premier’s Fianna Fail party, the Green Party and independent lawmakers who are bristling at the prospect of severe budget cuts in their constituencies.
—Santiago Perez and David Gauthier-Villars contributed to this article.