se Pyongyang ignora gli avvertimenti della Cina e degli altri paesi continuando i test nucleari, Pechino potrebbe revocare il trattato di quasi alleanza militare col Nord Corea e mettere fine ai rapporti di stretta amicizia con il paese vicini.
- Gli analisti cinesi credono che se Pyongyang ignora gli avvertimenti della Cina e degli altri paesi continuando i test nucleari, Pechino potrebbe revocare il trattato di quasi alleanza militare col Nord Corea e mettere fine ai rapporti di stretta amicizia con il paese vicini.
- In Luglio Cina e Nord Corea hanno celebrato il 45° anniversario del "Trattato di amicizia e mutua collaborazione", che è di fatto un’alleanza militare.
- Gli osservatori nordcoreani dicono che il regime di Kim sta attraversando un delicato periodo di transizione per la selezione del suo successore, troppa pressione dall’esterno potrebbe rafforzare gli intransigenti e un approccio tipo aspettare-e-vedere potrebbe quindi essere più saggio.
- E’ anche importante da notare che il test del NCorea e il programma nucleare iraniano sono connessi: la Cina non vuole mostrarsi troppo dura col NCorea, essendo conciliatoria con l’Iran.
- Pechino teme che il collasso del Ncorea porti all’immigrazione di milioni di rifugiati in Cina. La Cina ha cominciato la costruzione di una recinzione lungo il confine col Ncorea, ma è molto improbabile che i soldati dell’Esercito di Liberazione aprirebbero il fuoco sui rifugiati. Analisti dicono che è una ragione per cui Pechino ha fornito aiuti a Pyongyang negli anni recenti.
- Dal collasso dell’Unione Sovietica, la Cina è stato il maggiore partner commerciale del Ncorea e probabilmente il suo più stretto alleato. Il commercio tra i due paesi è salito alle stelle negli ultimi anni. Dal 2000 al 2005, il commercio è salito dai 488 milioni $ a 1,58 miliardi $, a un tasso di crescita annuale del 26,5%.
Un segno della maggiore pressione di Pechino su Pyongyang è dato dalla chiusura da parte della Cina di tre dei suoi quattro uffici doganali nel Nord Est che gestiscono il commercio col Nord Corea.
Oltre alla chiusura di uffici doganali, c’è stato un arresto da parte delle banche cinesi di trasferimenti finanziari al Nord Corea su ordine del governo.
Esso potrebbe diventare uno svantaggio strategico per la Cina se la mossa di Pyongyang avesse come risultato che le forze straniere si impegnino nella penisola. Pechino certamente non vorrebbe aiutare il Nord Corea in questa eventualità.
Una scuola di pensiero fra i politicanti cinesi sostiene che il regime di Kim è stato troppo a lungo isolato e che non può essere isolato più di così, quindi, al di là di aiutare gli intransigenti, ogni misura sarebbe inutile.
Quest’anno vedrà un balzo in avanti dal momento che nei primi 7 mesi dell’anno il commercio ha già raggiunto i 900 milioni di $. Nel 2005, gli investimenti della Cina in Ncorea sono stati in totale di 127,22 milioni $, nella prima metà del 2006 gli investimenti sono saliti a 86,43 milioni $.
Gli investimenti cinesi includono cibo, elettronica, chimica, medicine, industria leggera, abbigliamento, industria mineraria e trasporti. Combustibile e cibo contano per i due terzi degli export cinesi al Ncorea. La questione è come il Ncorea copre il deficit di 500 milioni $ di commercio con la Cina.
Gli analisti tendono a credere che questo sia l’ammontare di aiuti di Pechino a Pyongyang.
All teeth and lips – for now
By Scott Zhou
SHANGHAI – If Pyongyang ignores tough warnings by China and other countries and goes ahead with a second nuclear test, Beijing could likely revoke a military-ally-like treaty with North Korea to end the "blood and flesh" friendship with its neighboring country, Chinese analysts say.
There are also signs that Beijing has escalated its pressure on Pyongyang ahead of its reported second nuclear test, as China has closed three customs offices in northeastern China that
All teeth and lips – for now By Scott Zhou SHANGHAI – If Pyongyang ignores tough warnings by China and other countries and goes ahead with a second nuclear test, Beijing could likely revoke a military-ally-like treaty with North Korea to end the "blood and flesh" friendship with its neighboring country, Chinese analysts say. There are also signs that Beijing has escalated its pressure on Pyongyang ahead of its reported second nuclear test, as China has closed three customs offices in northeastern China that handle trade with North Korea.
In July, China and North Korea celebrated the 45th anniversary of
the "China-DPRK Friendship and Mutual Collaboration Treaty", which contains a clause stipulating that each side will help the other defend against any foreign invasion. That is, virtually tieing the two countries as military allies.
But the commitment, especially from the North Korea side, has been highly unreliable. Pyongyang stood by idle when China and the former Soviet Union engaged in military conflicts in the 1960s.
And now, particularly in light of North Korea conducting its nuclear test, the treaty could become a strategic liability for China should Pyongyang’s moves result in foreign forces becoming involved on the peninsula. Although the possibility is slim at this stage, but increasing in the face of North Korea’s defiance, Beijing certainly does not want to help North Korea in such an eventuality.
Pyongyang’s nuclear test caught Beijing by surprise, prompting a fierce debate among policymakers about what to do with the "friend", sources say. One of the options being considered is for Beijing to use the treaty as leverage to press Pyongyang to fall into line and return to the six-party talks on its nuclear program, as all the other countries involved – China, Russia, the US, Japan and South Korea – are demanding.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice held talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing on Friday. Both sides agreed to make efforts to bring North Korea back to the six-nation talks, according to Xinhua News Agency. Also on Friday, Chinese State Councilor and former foreign minister, Tang Jiaxuan, told Rice that his trip to North Korea this week "had not been in vain".
Tang was sent to deliver a personal message from President Hu Jintao to Kim Jong-il. It is unclear whether Tang brought up the treaty issue when he met Kim. But on Thursday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao, when asked about Tang’s Pyongyang visit, said the six-party negotiations remained a valid mechanism in dealing with North Korea’s nuclear issue.
All the same, China has escalated pressure on North Korea. Beijing-based Global Times, a sister publication of the Chinese Communist Party’s flagship newspaper, the People’s Daily, reported that China had closed three customs offices in northeastern China that handle trade with North Korea.
It said the closures involved border offices in Donggang and Shanghekou, both in Liaoning province, and one in the city of Tumen, in Jilin province. Before the action was taken, Beijing formally operated four customs points with North Korea. Now only the customs point of Dandong, facing the North Korean border city of Shinuiju across the Yalu River, is open to handle bilateral trade.
Chinese banks are also reported to have stopped financial transfers to North Korea under government orders.
Rice’s daunting task in
her Beijing visit will be to persuade the "teeth" to the "lips" to remain intact. The China-North Korea relationship has often been likened to that of the "teeth and lips", following a Chinese idiom that says that when the lips are gone, the teeth feel frigid.
But Rice could also get some advice from Beijing on the dynamics in play in Kim’s regime: enforcing tough sanctions and even tightening the squeeze is not the only option.
North Korea watchers say that the Kim regime is entering a delicate period of selecting a successor to Dear Leader Kim. Too much outside pressure would give leverage to hardliners, and a wait-and-see approach could therefore be a wiser option.
One school of thought among China’s policymakers argues that the Kim regime has been isolated for so long that it cannot be "further" isolated, so, beyond helping hardliners, any measures will be a waste of time.
Therefore, until such time as a second nuclear test, Beijing is expected to seek a balance. On the one hand, it thinks that Pyongyang needs to be taught a lesson, as China’s number two leader, Wu Bangguo, said this week – that Pyongyang should be made to pay a "high price". One the other hand, out of its geopolitical and strategic concerns, China will make all effort to avoid a sudden collapse of the North Korea regime.
It is also important to note that North Korea’s test and Iran’s nuclear program are linked. That is, China does not want to show that it is too harsh on North Korea, while being conciliatory to Iran.
Beijing fears that the collapse of North Korea would result in millions of refugees flooding into China. China has begun to build a fence along its border with North Korea, but it is highly doubtful if People’s Liberation Army soldiers would open fire on refugees. Analysts say this is one reason Beijing has given aid to Pyongyang in recent years.
Since the collapse of the former Soviet Union in the early 1990s, China has been North Korea’s biggest trade partner and arguably its closest ally. Trade between the two countries has skyrocketed in recent years. From 2000 to 2005, trade jumped from US$488 million to $1.58 billion, at an annual growth rate of 26.5%.
This year will see a leap forward as in the first seven months trade had already reached $900 million. In 2005, China’s investment in North Korea totaled $127.22 million, in the first half of 2006, investment soared to $86.43 million.
China’s investment in North Korea involves food, electronics, chemicals, drugs and medicine, light industry, garments, mining and transportation. Fuel and food account for two-thirds of China’s exports to North Korea. This raises the question, how does North Korea cover its $500 million trade deficit with China? Analysts tend to believe this is the amount of aid Beijing gives to Pyongyang.
Border trade plays an important role. Liaoning and Jilin provinces in northeast China have been busy expanding and facilitating trade with North Korea. Hunchun, a small town in Jilin, bordering North Korea and Russia, plans to launch a project to build a trilateral free-trade zone.
Scott Zhou is a freelance writer based in Shanghai.is a freelance writer based in Shanghai.