Pechino spinge per un maggiore ruolo del Centro-Asia per la stabilizzazione dell’Afghanistan
BRIAN SPEGELE e WAYNE MA
– Prima giornata dell’annuale vertice centro asiatico dei 6 paesi della Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)[1] a Pechino: Russia e Cina cercano di creare un contrappeso Usa e alleanze occidentali;
– il vertice centrato sulla questione afghana;
o il presidente cinese, Hu Jintao, ha chiesto maggiore sforzo da parte di Cina Russia e paesi centro-asiatici per la stabilizzazione dell’Afghanistan, in vista del ritiro truppe Nato dal 2014. Il portavoce cinese per gli Esteri ha escluso che SCO possa fungere da blocco militare.
o Hu Jintao: continueremo a gestire da soli gli affari regionali … contro turbolenze dall’esterno, e ad avere un maggiore ruolo per l’Afghanistan.
o SCO deve divenire una forza indispensabile per la sicurezza della regione.
– Il recente coordinamento Russia-Cina su Iran e Siria esempio del tentativo di coordinamento politico, mentre cresce pressione di Usa ed Europa. Rimangono molti ostacoli ad azioni coordinate russo-cinesi sul fronte sicurezza, compresa la complessità delle loro relazioni economico e politiche.
– Un punto centrale del vertice sono i legami economici e strategici di Cina e Russia con l’Iran.
– Ahmadinejad chiede a Pechino assicurazioni sulle relazioni energetiche tra i due paesi, da cui dipende una importante quota degli introiti dello Stato iraniano.
o L’Iran era nel 2011 il terzo maggior fornitore di greggio della Cina, dopo Arabia Saudita e Angola(557 000b/g), anche se le forniture sono calate ad inizio anno, sembra per una disputa commerciale.
– Il presidente di China Development Bank, grande finanziatore di progetti infrastrutturali cinesi all’estero: nonostante le pressioni occidentali, non cambieranno le importazioni cinesi dall’Iran.
o Il presidente iraniano cerca di intascare l’appoggio di Russia e Cina sulla questione del nucleare, durante il vertice dei leader centro-asiatici. Pechino è contraria ad armi nucleari in MO.
– Russia e Cina cercano di convincere Teheran a rispondere diplomaticamente alle provocazioni. Nel vertice di Baghdad di maggio, Pechino ha chiesto che l’Iran cooperi maggiormente con l’IAEA; i negoziati con l’IAEA darebbero spazio di manovra alla Cina, secondo un analista di Eurasia Group.
– Nessun segnale di cambiamento di Russia e Cina su questione siriana; emessa dichiarazione congiunta: Russia e Cina continuano ad opporsi risolutamente all’utilizzo della forza militare in Siria, e a promuovere un cambio di regime.
– Putin e il probabile successore di Hu Jintao, l’attuale vice-presidente Xi Jinping, continuerà la cooperazione militare, come ad es. in esercitazioni congiunte.
– Russia e Cina si impegnano a rafforzare la loro cooperazione sull’energia nucleare; rivelati particolari su un investimento congiunto (che sperano giunga a $4MD) in una società russa per il legname.
– Contraddizioni Russia-Cina:
– la Russia sospettosa rispetto alla veloce crescita economica e ascesa strategica della Cina; scarsi progressi per i negoziati fermi su grandi progetti di gasdotti.
o Il russo Gazprom chiede lo stesso prezzo che ottiene dall’Europa; il cinese CNPC vuole uno sconto soprattutto per il gas estratto in Siberia orientale, che andrebbe perso se non venduto alla Cina;
o la Cina non ha fretta di concludere accordi, vista la congiuntura in rallentamento, e la scoperta di riserve di gas da scisti bituminosi, che sarebbero le maggiori del mondo; le forniture alternative dal Turkmenistan (+76% sull’anno precedente, a circa 4,8 mn. di tonnellate nel periodo gennaio-aprile).
Negli ultimi anni la Cina ha cercato di rafforzare le infrastrutture per l’accesso alle risorse centro-asiatiche, per diversificare le fonti, dati i timori di instabilità per Iran e Sudan, fornitori tradizionali.
[1] Ne fanno parte Cina, Russia, Kazakistan, Kyrgyzistan, Tajikistan e Uzbekistan; Iran, India, Pakistan e Mongolia partecipano come osservatori.
Beijing Pushes for Greater Central Asian Role in Stabilizing Afghanistan
– BEIJING—China President Hu Jintao called for greater efforts by China, Russia and Central Asian nations to help stabilize Afghanistan to prevent wider regional disruptions, underscoring the group’s broader aspirations for a coordinated response on security issues—as well as its worries.
– Mr. Hu’s remarks, published in an interview with the Communist Party’s flagship People’s Daily newspaper on the first day of a Central Asia summit of the six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Beijing, suggests unease in Beijing about stability in neighboring Afghanistan following a planned drawdown of North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops by 2014.
– "We will persevere in managing regional affairs by ourselves, guard against turbulence and shocks from outside the region, and play a bigger role in Afghanistan’s restoration of peace," Mr. Hu said in the interview. The group should "become an indispensable force in dealing with this region’s security issues," he said.
– With the group, Russia and China appear to be attempting to establish a counterbalance to U.S. and other Western-dominated strategic partnerships.
– Recent coordination over Iran and Syria have been examples of how the countries’ leaders are in some cases coordinating policy as they come under growing pressure from the U.S. and Europe.
– Still, many barriers remain before the countries could act cohesively on the security front, including complex economic and political ties between Russia and China.
– Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin at a daily press briefing Wednesday ruled out any possibility that the organization would serve as a military bloc.
– Along with Russia and China, other organization member states are Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Iran holds observer status, as do India, Pakistan and Mongolia. Afghanistan’s president, Hamid Karzai, was also expected to take part in the summit.
– The group is expected to focus on Afghanistan ahead of the NATO drawdown. Beijing in particular worries that a resurgent Taliban opposition could serve to destabilize its close ally Pakistan, analysts say.
– Russia and China showed no signs of relenting on the issue of Syria, despite evidence violence against civilians there has ramped up. A joint statement published on the website of China’s Foreign Ministry on Wednesday reiterated that the two "resolutely oppose" the use of military force in Syria as well as calls for regime change there.
– In a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and China Vice President Xi Jinping—seen as the likely successor to President Hu Jintao—the two sides vowed to continue military cooperation in areas such as joint exercises.
– But Russia at times remains mistrustful of China’s rapid economic and strategic rise, according to analysts, and the two countries appeared to make little visible progress on stalled negotiations over major gas-pipeline projects.
– China has worked to bolster infrastructure to access resources in Central Asia in recent years, as part of a global bid to shore up energy sources needed to fuel economic expansion. Analysts say Beijing in part is seeking to diversify its resource providers as it has seen growing stability concerns from traditional energy suppliers like Iran and Sudan.
– Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao met with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Wednesday, and reiterated Beijing’s calls that it opposes efforts by a country in the Middle East to pursue nuclear weapons. Tehran is under pressure from Washington and Europe over its nuclear program. The U.S. is worried Iran is developing nuclear weapons, while Tehran says its purposes are peaceful. Mr. Ahmadinejad while in Beijing this week is seeking reassurances that its energy ties with China are sound, experts say. Iran remains a major supplier of Chinese crude, though supplies fell off sharply early this year after what people involved in the matter said was a commercial dispute.
– Mr. Ahmadinejad brought his anti-U.S. rhetoric to China, telling students at a speech at Peking University on Wednesday that America was like a wolf that stole the wealth of others. "A wolf can tear apart over 1,000 other animals in its lifetime. But in our world today we have a capitalist controlling power that in order to fill its pockets can launch a global war," he said, according to a person at the talk.
– Chen Yuan, the chairman of China Development Bank, which is a major financing arm for Chinese government overseas infrastructure projects, said imports from Iran would not change despite pressure from the West. "China has always imported oil from Iran and continues to do so now. There’s no difference now compared to before," he said.
– Analysts say Beijing and Moscow are unlikely to publicly pressure Iran during the summit. Mr. Hu, in Wednesday’s interview, reiterated long-standing calls by Beijing that concerns over Iran’s nuclear program be dealt with diplomatically, and those involved in negotiations should avoid steps that might further escalate tensions.
Asia Summit to Debate Nuclear Iran
Tehran Seen Pressing Russia, China for Support Over Its Standoff With West; Syria Also a Key Topic
By BRIAN SPEGELE and WAYNE MA
The Asian summit will spotlight China’s growing demand for energy. Mr. Putin met Mr. Hu in Beijing Tuesday.
– BEIJING—Iran’s president will attempt to shore up support from Russia and China during a closely watched summit of Central Asia leaders beginning Wednesday in Beijing, just as concerns rise over Tehran’s nuclear program.
– Meanwhile, the meeting provides an opportunity for Russia and China to seek to persuade Iran to tamp down provocations in a friendlier atmosphere than meetings with a heavy Western presence.
– Russia and China are also expected to discuss Syria, as they face increasing international pressure to more forcefully respond to attacks on civilians there. The two have blocked international efforts to take a tougher stance against Damascus.
– The annual meeting of leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will spotlight China’s growing demand for oil and natural gas and its efforts to build stronger ties with resource-rich Central Asian nations. It comes as Russia and China remain deadlocked in negotiations over major gas-pipeline projects once intended to highlight energy cooperation between the countries.
– As concerns rise over Iran’s nuclear program, China and Russia’s economic relationship with Tehran will be closely watched at the Asia Summit. The WSJ’s Deborah Kan speaks with reporter Brian Spegele.
– Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing on Tuesday and met with China President Hu Jintao. The two pledged to deepen cooperation on nuclear power, among other matters; further details weren’t disclosed. The two countries also unveiled details of a previously announced investment partnership that they hope will raise as much as $4 billion, and a person familiar with the matter said its initial investment will be about $200 million in a Russian timber company. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also arrived late Tuesday.
– Along with Russia and China, other organization member states include Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Iran holds observer status, as do India, Pakistan and Mongolia.
– Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai is also expected to attend. Leaders may discuss regional security cooperation, particularly as an expected withdrawal from Afghanistan by North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces draws nearer and Afghanistan’s stability comes under scrutiny.
– China’s and Russia’s close economic and strategic ties to Iran will play a central part in this week’s talks, with Iran looking for support as it deals with rising pressure from the U.S. and Europe over its nuclear ambitions. Washington has voiced increasing worries that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. Tehran insists its efforts are peaceful.
– Iran, which relies on China for oil revenue and strategic support, will likely seek to mollify Beijing that it has taken steps to address international concerns. Hopes for progress were dealt a setback last month during talks in Baghdad. China in its public statements has been calling for improved cooperation between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency even as it has dismissed U.S. calls for tougher measures against Iran.
– China "will try to persuade the Iranians to be more forthcoming and more engaged in diplomacy," said Michal Meidan, a China analyst for political-risk consultancy Eurasia Group, adding that IAEA talks "give China room for maneuvering."
– Meanwhile, Mr. Ahmadinejad likely will be seeking reassurances over energy ties to Beijing. Iran is a major supplier of Chinese crude, but shipments were sharply curtailed this year in what people familiar with the matter have described as a commercial dispute. While resolved, the dispute underscores the give-and-take in China-Iran relations. "The Iranians are concerned that the Chinese are making backup plans," Ms. Meidan said.
– Analysts say signing major energy deals with Iran right now would be too provocative, and Beijing is likely to warn Tehran against provoking conflict in a region where tensions already run high.
– China has aggressively diversified its sources of imported oil in recent years, a trend analysts partly attribute to concerns over the stability of Iranian oil supply. Iran was China’s third-largest oil supplier last year, with about 557,000 barrels a day, after No. 1 Saudi Arabia and No. 2 Angola.
– As part of China’s global quest for resources to support its booming economy, it has sought to bolster energy infrastructure with its neighbors. But negotiations to embark on major Russia-China pipelines projects have stalled. Analysts say newly available energy resources coupled with China’s moderating economy have made China’s need for a gas deal with Russia less pressing for now, particularly as Beijing and Moscow remain divided over pricing.
– Russian state-controlled natural gas giant OAO Gazprom wants gas prices similar to those it receives in Europe, while China National Petroleum Corp., the country’s largest energy producer, is holding out for a discount, especially on gas piped out of eastern Siberia, which it argues would go to waste if not sent to China.
– "China is taking a wait-and-see attitude when it comes to new deals, especially with natural gas, because the economy is slowing down markedly," said Gordon Kwan, head of energy research for Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong. "There’s no urgency to do major new deals especially when China sits atop the world’s largest shale gas resources."
– Growing alternative gas supplies, in particular from nearby Turkmenistan, have also slowed Russia-China talks. China’s natural-gas imports from Turkmenistan rose to about 4.8 million tons in the January-to-April period, up 76% from a year earlier.
Write to Brian Spegele at brian.spegele@wsj.com and Wayne Ma at wayne.ma@dowjones.com
A version of this article appeared June 6, 2012, on page A12 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Asia Summit to Debate Nuclear Iran.