– Per il 2025 oltre la metà della popolazione mondiale (1MD di nuovi consumatori nelle città dei PVS) farà parte dei consumatori, portando i consumi annuali dei PVS a $30mila MD, contro i $12mila MD del 2010, il 50% del totale mondiale contro il 32% del 2010.
o Ad es. per il 2020, oltre la metà di tutte le famiglie cinesi urbane farà parte della piccola-media borghesia, contro il 6% nel 2010.
o
–
Legenda: 1. consumatori: hanno un reddito quotidiano disponibile è >o = a $10; sotto-consumatori, <$10, reddito calcolato a PPP; 2. stime
– I maggiori gruppi economici dei paesi sviluppati traggono però solo il 17% delle loro entrate dai PVS, che però rappresentano il 36% del PIL globale.
– Fra 15 anni quasi il 60% del circa 1 miliardo di famiglie con un reddito annuale superiore a $20 000, sarà nei PVS.
– Già oltre la metà degli internauti sono nei PVS;
– nei PVS la popolazione urbana aumenta di 65 milioni l’anno; nei prossimi 15 anni 440 città nei PVS (circa 600 milioni; produrranno da sole il 47% della crescita del PIL globale (23mila MD), e il 40% dell’aumento dei consumi; la maggior parte di queste città sono città di media dimensione, come Ahmedabad, Huambo, Medan, o Viña del Mar. Di queste 400 città emergenti, 242 sono in Cina. Tra le 440 grandi città ci sono 20 megalopoli, che si prevede produrranno una aumento del PIL di $5 800 MD.
– Le 600 maggiori città del mondo con poco più del 20% della popolazione mondiale produrranno nel 2010-2025 quasi la metà della crescita del PIL mondiale, pari a circa $34mila MD; nel 2025 produrranno il 65% della crescita del PIL mondiale.
– Per il 2025 occorreranno $20mila MD di investimenti nelle città, contro i $10mila MD attuali;
– [in: Urban world: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, McKinsey, giugno 2012]
– La Cina contribuisce con la quota più alta alla crescita della domanda urbana in categorie chiave:
Medio Oriente & Africa
domanda di container
PIL misurato in base ai tassi di cambio previsti;
– Nel 2007-2010 il PIL delle grandi città cinesi è passato dal 20% al 37% di quello delle grandi città Usa; nei tre anni si sono formate tre grandi megalopoli con oltre 10milioni di abitanti.
– Se permane la tendenza in atto, nel 2030 la popolazione urbana cinese raggiungerà il miliardo; in 20 anni la Cina avrà 350 milioni di abitanti in più, pari alla intera popolazione Usa. Nel 2025 avrà 221 città con oltre 1 milione di abitanti, e 23 città con oltre 5 milioni.
– L’India ha una popolazione giovane e in forte crescita, che
– Nel 2007-2010 il PIL delle città dell’America Latina è passato dal 26% di quelle europee; nel 2010 è arrivato al 37%.
– Il PIL complessivo dell’Africa era nel 2008 di $1600 MD, circa come quello di Brasile o Russia. Dal 2000Si è avuta un’accelerazione della crescita economica di 27 dei 30 maggiori paesi; le risorse naturali hanno rappresentato direttamente il 24% della crescita del PIL africano nel 2000-2008.
– Aumentato il flusso di capitali esteri in Africa da $15MD nel 2000 a $87MD nel 2007.
– Si prevede che industria per il consumo, agricoltura, risorse e infrastrutture potrebbero generare annualmente $2600 MD di PIL per il 2020, $1000 MD più di oggi.
– Oggi il 40% degli africani vive in aree urbane; nei prossimi 10 anni si preve che il numero di famiglie con un reddito disponibile per i consumi aumenti del 50%, raggiungendo i 128 milioni; per il 2030 le 18 maggiori città africane potrebbero avere un potere d’acquisto combinato di $1300 MD.
– Secondo le proiezioni di McKinsey, per rispondere alla crescita della domanda derivante dall’urbanizzazione indiana, ogni anno dovranno essere costruite 700-900 milioni di m2 di superfici per uso residenziale e commerciale; 350-400km di metropolitana e strade sotterranee, oltre 20 volte la capacità di costruzione dell’India nell’ultimo decennio; 19-25000 km di carreggiate stradali, pari quasi al totale di quelle costruite nello scorso decennio.
– Si stima che l’investimento di capitale pro-capite dell’India dovrebbe essere di $134 (pari a circa $1200 MD in 20 anni), quasi 8 volte quello attuale di $17 – che è solo il 14% di quello cinese ($116), e meno del 2% di quello di New York ($292).
Se continua la forte crescita attuale indiana, nei prossimi 20 anni il livello dei redditi triplicherà, e nel 2025 l’India passerà dal 12° posto mondiale come mercato di consumo al 5°, decuplicando il numero di piccola-media borghesia dagli attuali 50 milioni a 583 milioni.
– By 2025, more than half of the world’s population will have joined the consuming classes, driving annual consumption in emerging markets to $30 trillion. Global companies must master ten key disciplines—or miss the defining growth opportunity of our times.
CEOs recognize that winning in emerging markets is the key to long-term growth.
– Yet the largest companies headquartered in developed economies derive only 17 percent of their revenues from emerging markets, even though these markets represent 36 percent of global GDP. Despite advantages in scale, technology, and access to capital, multinationals often lose out to local competitors.
No single formula or capability can guarantee success in emerging markets. We believe global companies must master ten disciplines to compete effectively. As with a decathlon, winning depends on all-around excellence. Sitting out an event is not an option.
Target urban growth clusters
Most multinationals make decisions at the country rather than city level in emerging markets. Given the diversity of consumer preferences, purchasing power, and market conditions in emerging societies, a failure to acknowledge the importance of cities can be a fundamental strategic error. Strategies based on clusters of fast-growing “middleweight” cities are more effective than attempts to achieve blanket coverage of an entire country or region or to chase growth in scattered individual cities.
Anticipate moments of explosive growth
In emerging markets, timing matters as much as geography. Demand for a particular product typically follows an S-curve: there is a “warm-up zone” as growth gathers steam and consumer incomes begin to increase, a “hot zone” where consumers have enough money to buy the product, and a “chill-out zone” in which demand eases. Per capita income is the critical variable, but the takeoff point and shape of the S-curve vary greatly between products.
Devise segmentation strategies for local relevance and global scale
Too often, multinationals classify emerging-market consumers into two groups: at one extreme, the nouveau riche, eager to flaunt their wealth; at the other, the poor, for whom the overriding purchase criterion is getting the lowest price. With the number of mainstream consumers on the rise in emerging markets—more than half of all Chinese urban households, for example, will be solidly middle class by 2020, up from 6 percent in 2010—companies must craft nuanced product strategies balancing scale and local relevance.
Radically redeploy resources for the long term
Companies based in emerging markets redeploy investments across business units at much higher rates than companies domiciled in developed markets. Developed-country companies find it hard to match the agility of their emerging-market rivals for many reasons. But to compete effectively in emerging markets, multinationals must be willing to place big bets and ride them for the long term.
Innovate to deliver value across the price spectrum
Emerging markets offer greenfield opportunities to design and build products and services with innovative twists on their best-in-class equivalents in established markets. Whether a company sells basic products or services to challenge low-cost local players or seeks to entice consumers to adopt new products and services comparable to global offerings, competing effectively often requires innovating and localizing, while redesigning product lines, service operations, and supply chains.
Build brands that resonate and inspire trust
Emerging consumers are embracing new ideas and ways of living. They are highly receptive to effective branding efforts, but also quick to dump one brand for the next new thing. They also wrestle with new product choices in a cluttered marketing environment and a fragmented retail landscape. This has significant implications for brand and marketing strategies. Among them: in emerging markets, multinationals must work harder to ensure that their products are included in consumers’ initial consideration sets—the short list of brands consumers might purchase. This in turn favors brands with high visibility and an aura of trust.
Control the route to market
Our research underscores the importance in emerging markets of managing how consumers encounter products at the point of sale. In China, 45 percent of consumers make purchasing decisions inside shops, compared with just 24 percent in the United States. Yet managing the consumer’s in-store experience is an enormous challenge, especially in middleweight cities, where the biggest growth opportunities lie. Multinationals should be prepared to build much larger in-house sales operations in these countries and to devote far more time and energy than they do in their home markets to categorizing and segmenting sales outlets and to monitoring the quality of the in-store experience.
Organize today for the markets of tomorrow
In theory, global companies should enjoy substantial advantages over local rivals, including shared infrastructure and protection against individual country and currency risks. As global companies grow bigger and more diverse, however, the costs of coping with geographic and product complexity rise sharply. Large multinationals can reduce this “globalization penalty” by rethinking organizational structures and processes—for example, focusing on a few key management processes for which global consistency is advantageous, while allowing variability and local tailoring in others, and clarifying the role of the corporate center.
Turbocharge the drive for emerging-market talent
Unskilled workers may be plentiful in emerging societies, but skilled managers are scarce and hard to retain. Increasingly, local stars prefer working for local employers that can offer more senior roles. Beefing up salaries is, at best, a partial solution. Global firms must develop clear talent value propositions—employer brands—to differentiate themselves from local competitors. We believe many multinationals should aspire to multiply the number of leaders in emerging markets tenfold, and to do so in one-tenth of the time they would take back home.
Lock in the support of key stakeholders
Successful businesses need the support of stakeholders in government, civil society, and the media (increasingly shaped by online commentators). Managing these relationships effectively can have a huge impact on a company’s market access, ability to engage in merger or acquisition activity, and broader reputation. Global companies must devote far more time and effort to building such support in emerging markets than they would in developed ones. Senior executives should make a systematic effort to identify key regulators, community leaders, and business partners and to understand their needs. They also must ensure that public-affairs and external-relations teams are as well staffed in emerging markets as in markets back home.
McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) 2010.06
Lions on the move: The progress and potential of African economies
June 2010 | by Charles Roxburgh, Norbert Dörr, Acha Leke, Amine Tazi-Riffi, Arend van Wamelen, Susan Lund, Mutsa Chironga, Tarik Alatovik, Charles Atkins, Nadia Terfous, Till Zeino-Mahmalat
Africa’s collective GDP, at $1.6 trillion in 2008, is now roughly equal to Brazil’s or Russia’s. While Africa’s increased economic momentum is widely recognized, less known are its sources and likely staying power. Among the key findings:
Foreseeing the potential rise of Africa’s economic lions
MGI’s London-based Director Charles Roxburgh and South Africa-based Principal Arend Van Wamelen discuss the sources and staying power of Africa’s economic growth, the continent’s compelling business opportunities, and the rise of the African urban consumer.
Africa’s growth acceleration was widespread, with 27 of its 30 largest economies expanding more rapidly after 2000.
– All sectors contributed, including resources, finance, retail, agriculture, transportation and telecommunications. Natural resources directly accounted for just 24 percent of the continent’s GDP growth from 2000 through 2008. Key to Africa’s growth surge were improved political and macroeconomic stability and microeconomic reforms.
Future economic growth will be supported by Africa’s increasing ties to the global economy.
Rising demand for commodities is driving buyers around the world to pay dearly for Africa’s natural riches and to forge new types of partnerships with producers.
– And Africa is gaining greater access to international capital; total foreign capital flows into Africa rose from $15 billion in 2000 to a peak of $87 billion in 2007.
Africa’s economic growth is creating substantial new business opportunities that are often overlooked by global companies.
MGI projects that at least four groups of industries—consumer-facing industries, agriculture, resources, and infrastructure—together could generate as much as $2.6 trillion in revenue annually by 2020, or $1 trillion more than today.
Today the rate of return on foreign investment in Africa is higher than in any other developing region.
Early entry into African economies provides opportunities to create markets, establish brands, shape industry structures, influence customer preferences, and establish long-term relationships. Business can help build the Africa of the future.
The rise of the African urban consumer also will fuel long-term growth.
– Today, 40 percent of Africans live in urban areas, a portion close to China’s and continuing to expand. The number of households with discretionary
– income is projected to rise by 50 percent over the next 10 years, reaching 128 million. By 2030, the continent’s top 18 cities could have combined spending power of $1.3 trillion.
To understand the growth opportunities and challenges of individual economies, MGI developed a framework that groups them in four broad clusters: diversified economies, oil exporters, transition economies, and pre-transition economies. Though imperfect, this framework can guide business leaders and investors developing strategies for the continent and policymakers working to sustain growth.