Quadro trattativa Doha Round (vertice di Hong Kong):
- multinazionali metropoli “alleate” con PVS pro
liberalizzazione import agricolo metropoli da PVS, per ottenere in cambio
apertura PVS a import prodotti industriali e servizi. - Agricoltura pesa solo 1% su PIL USA e 2% UE, ma le lobby
agricole danno battaglia per i loro interessi vitali, e hanno influenza
politica più che proporzionale. - Tariffe medie su tutti i prodotti importati: 4%
per USA e UE, 27,5% per PVS. - Esempi di richieste apertura mercati PVS: Caterpillar
ricicla componenti usate, rivendendoli con garanzia a prezzo = 30% del nuovo.
Ma molti paesi America Latina impongono licenze speciali (Brasile) o vietano
l’import di prodotti usati (Colombia, Peru, Ecuador), per proteggere
l’industria locale. - Anche produttori di attrezzature medicali, telefonini e
componenti auto hanno analoghi problemi per vendita usato. - BMW può vendere in India solo auto grosse, che
pagano tariffe del 100%. Se non ottiene apertura, dovrà costruire fabbrica di
assemblaggio in India (tariffa per componenti = 15%). Ford vorrebbe che Corea
elimini una tassa su auto basato sulla cilindrata (fino a $5.000), che tiene
fuori le auto americane. - Multinazionali dei trasporti come UPS chiedono la
standardizzazione dei codici doganali per evitare lunghi tempi di attesa pacchi
alle dogane per la loro riclassificazione. UPS, che sta crescendo del 35%
l’anno in Cina, teme che nuova regolamentazione postale e nuove tasse ne
blocchino l’espansione. - Le catene di distribuzione chiedono che, quale
condizione per ingresso Russia in WTO, vi sia la riduzione delle
restrizioni (dimensione e localizzazione) per l’insediamento di negozi a
controllo estero. - Una associazione di imprese europee (UNICE?) ha dichiarato
che “non può accettare che il protezionismo agricolo tenga in ostaggio il
negoziato”. - Ma i coltivatori USA di cotone temono la concorrenza di
paesi come Burkina Faso e Benin, i coltivatori di barbabietole vogliono tener
fuori i rivali tailandesi e colombiani. - Tra la fauna presente a HK anche i coltivatori svizzeri di
prezzemolo, protetti da tariffa del 700%, e produttori norvegesi di latte, che
grazie a tariffa del 400% potranno ottemperare a legge che impone spazi coperti
dove lasciar passeggiare le mucche.
Nota. In realtà il protezionismo agricolo beneficia
soprattutto i grandi produttori agricoli, sia europei che USA.
Poor Nations, Multinationals
Form Unlikely Alliance;
Progress May Be Tough
BMW’s End Run in India
By GREG HITT and SCOTT MILLER
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
December 13, 2005 12:30 a.m.; Page A1
HONG KONG — Here’s a simplified scorecard
for the current impasse in global trade talks: United Parcel Service Inc. is
losing; Swiss parsley farmers are ahead.
UPS and an alliance of express-mail carriers
have high hopes for the current talks, known as the Doha Round. They want to
streamline customs procedures and other delivery regulations around the world,
and block countries like China from imposing new restrictions. The delivery companies
are part of a broader coalition of multinationals — from banks to auto
makers — hoping to further open markets, especially those in developing
countries, when trade ministers from the 149-member World Trade
Organization meet here starting today.
But that
won’t happen unless the U.S. and European Union agree, in exchange, to open
their markets more dramatically to agriculture imports.
That bargain is running into resistance from
the likes of Swiss parsley growers, who enjoy a 700% tariff designed to
ensure not a foreign sprig gets sold there. Cut a deal, Swiss activists
contend, and cheaper agriculture products — not just parsley, but poultry, milk
and cheese — would flood in, wiping out the picturesque patchwork of farms
dotting the foothills of the Alps. "We could never compete," says
Heidi Bravo of the Swiss Farmers Union. U.S. agricultural interests, from
cotton growers to sugar-beet farmers, make similar arguments.
So far, Western farmers are prevailing
over the corporate behemoths, even though
agriculture accounts for a tiny fraction of economic output in developed
economies. The pain for agriculture from any deal would be far more
concentrated than the gain for service and manufacturing companies. Farmers,
with their very livelihoods at stake, have been far more aggressive and
effective in moving to thwart the trade round than the multinationals have been
lobbying to advance it.
That’s a big reason why expectations are so
low for this week’s talks, scheduled to end Sunday. Trade ministers had
originally hoped the Hong Kong meeting would produce the basic framework of an
agreement, leaving negotiators a bit more than a year to hammer out precise
language before the round’s mid-2007 deadline. Instead, diplomats are likely to
push into next year the tough decisions on the main contours of the round,
raising serious doubts about whether the negotiations can ever be completed.
Doha is the ninth set of multilateral
free-trade talks since American and European leaders began the process
shortly after World War II. It’s the first, however, to explicitly focus on the
interests of developing countries.
The notion dates back to the riot-torn talks
in Seattle in 1999, when poor nations complained that the WTO was a club for
rich countries. The developing nations succeeded in blocking the launch of a
new round until their economic concerns — particularly on opening of farm
markets — were given greater weight. Supporters argue that lowering barriers
to agricultural imports from developing nations would be one of the best ways
to pull them out of poverty. The Doha Round began in Doha, Qatar, in December
2001, shortly after the Sept. 11 attacks, with Western leaders vowing to show
how a divided world could become more unified through freer markets.
Complex Relationship
Developing nations now find themselves in
a complex relationship with the big multinationals. Both groups, for different
reasons, want to open up Western farm markets. But
local companies in developing nations could also be hurt by the multinationals’
push to knock down trade barriers.
The new focus on helping the poorer nations is more than charity.
Over a half-century of trade liberalization, the U.S. and Europe have gone a
long way toward knocking down barriers and harmonizing business rules between
their own markets. For big Western corporations, the most significant
opportunities in future trade rounds lie in the rest of the world. The U.S.
and Europe impose tariffs averaging about 4% of the price of imported
industrial goods, compared with an average of 27.5% imposed by developing
countries, according to EU estimates.
So joining the trade ministers in Hong Kong
this week will be Joseph Allen, a top executive with Caterpillar Inc.,
the Peoria, Ill., maker of heavy-duty work vehicles. Mr. Allen’s group salvages
old engine components, such as water pumps and transmissions. It cleans and
retools them, gives them a new warranty and sells them for as little as 30% of
the price of newly made parts. This "remanufactured goods" business
grew 15% for Caterpillar in 2004, and it expects similar gains this year.
The products are aimed at countries that
can’t afford Caterpillar’s newest equipment. But many countries block such
goods, to protect local industry or to ensure their markets don’t become
dumping grounds for American junk. Brazil requires special import licenses for
remanufactured goods, which adds costs and extends delivery time. Columbia,
Peru and Ecuador ban the products outright.
After talks between the U.S. and Chile
eliminated Santiago’s 50% tariff on recycled goods in 2003, Caterpillar’s sales
to the country jumped 75% the next year.
Mr. Allen’s efforts to get the WTO to set new
rules for remanufactured goods have been joined by makers of medical
devices, cellphones and auto parts.
BMW AG, which has loaned WTO organizers 250
of its top-of-the line 7-series cars for the Hong Kong event, hopes to make
some headway cutting tariff and nontariff barriers in developing markets. Last
year, the German car maker sold only 122 cars in India, a market of more than
one billion people. That’s partly because of fees and tariffs that more than
double the price of imported cars. And India won’t allow imports of smaller
cars, keeping most versions of BMW’s top-selling 3-series off the market.
Without a Doha breakthrough, BMW’s
unwieldy solution is to open in 2007 what it calls a "complete knock
down" factory in India. Taking advantage of
Indian tariffs of only 15% on car parts, BMW plans to ship unassembled
versions of its 3 and 5 series sedans to the country. There, workers will
put them together so they can be sold as whole cars without paying the 100%
duty.
Ford Motor Co. wants Doha to force South
Korea to curb auto taxes based on engine size,
which, the U.S. government says, are structured to hit 93% of American-made
passenger vehicles. The levies can add as much as $5,000 to the cost of an
American car. That’s one reason imports now make up just 2% of the South Korean
car market. "There’s a lot of pent-up ambition," says Stephen E.
Biegun, vice president for international governmental affairs for Ford.
For the service multinationals, the
goals in Doha are more subtle than knocking down tariffs and duties. They’re worried
about conflicting regulations that add red tape to their cross-border transactions,
and shadowy local rules that also inhibit trade.
Global Express,
the delivery industry’s trade association, opened its annual meeting in Hong
Kong over the weekend. The group is pushing for the Doha Round to approve an
agreement that would standardize "customs codes," the numerical
identifications assigned to imported goods. Some of the 200-plus countries
where UPS operates use different codes for the same product, sometimes hanging
a package up in port for days at a time as officials determine what it is and
what tariffs might apply.
UPS also wants
new WTO guidelines to prevent countries from imposing fresh curbs on
competition before the U.S. firm can cement a large presence. China is
currently UPS’s fastest growing market. Shipments in the third quarter were up
35% from a year ago. But new postal legislation, expected to be finalized
next year in Beijing, threatens to saddle international express delivery
companies with new limits and taxes.
David Abney, president of UPS’s international
operations, says he fears the national postal service will be put in charge of
regulating the entire industry. "We don’t see how they can compete with us
and be in charge of regulating the industry," he says.
Many big service providers see Doha as a
chance to stitch together a consistent global market allowing for more
aggressive expansion. The National Retail Federation, joined by
representatives of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and J.C. Penny Co., will be in town
this week. High on the retailers’ agenda is the possible admission of Russia
into the WTO. They hope to ensure Moscow moves to ease local restrictions on
the size and location of foreign-owned stores, among other things.
The price the U.S. and EU need to pay to
get those concessions is a big cut in protections and subsidies for their
farmers.
In principle, that would seem an achievable
deal. In the U.S., agriculture accounts for less than 1% of economic
activity, according to published estimates from the Central Intelligence
Agency. In the EU, the figure is just 2.2%. Manufacturing and services
make up most of the rest.
A big European business association
recently issued a statement saying that it "cannot accept that
agricultural protectionism holds the round hostage."
Yet that’s just what’s happening. American
cotton growers worry the Doha Round could leave them more vulnerable to
imports from African countries like Burkina Faso and Benin. Steve
Williams, a sugar-beet farmer from Fisher, Minn., is traveling to Hong
Kong to try to fend off concessions that could leave his 700 acres in the Red
River Valley vulnerable to Thai and Colombian rivals.
Shifting Politics
Farmers’ lobbies have been particularly
skilled at taking advantage of shifting politics in Europe. Popular support for
strengthening ties across Europe has been weakening. But the desire to protect
local farmers has remained strong. It dates back to the immediate postwar
period when agricultural self-reliance emerged as a matter of national pride
and security. More recently, European farmers have made convincing arguments
that they help maintain rural infrastructure and preserve the environment and
recreational opportunities.
Norwegian dairy farmer Kari Redse Haaskjold
cares for 20 milk cows on a farm in the middle of the country, where rain and
snow force her to keep the livestock indoors for at least half the year. The
cows are kept in stalls for now, but Oslo’s new animal-welfare law will force
her to provide her cattle with more covered space to roam. That is only
economical, she says, because Norway imposes 400% tariffs on dairy products.
Government support makes up about a third of her total income. A Doha
agreement limiting those benefits and protections would mean "I wouldn’t
be able to continue my farm and neither would my children," she says.
Even in the best of times, such stories are
bound to win more sympathy than the pleadings of multinationals. And these
aren’t the best of times for free-trade advocates. Public anxiety about
globalization has grown sharply, spurred by labor-market dislocations,
especially in manufacturing centers, where trade liberalization may seem as
likely to spur outsourcing as export-creating jobs.
The corporate backers of new trade agreements
have had to fight ever harder in recent years just to win the small deals. In
the U.S., it wasn’t until October that a core group of multinational concerns,
including Caterpillar, Pfizer Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co. and Time Warner
Inc. organized the American Business Coalition for Doha. One reason: the U.S.
business lobby was focused through much of the year on salvaging a modest U.S.
trade deal with six Central American nations, which passed Congress over the
summer with just two votes to spare.