Ricercatore presso l’Istituto di studi europei, russi ed eurasiatici, università di Carleton Canada.
● Tesi Asia Times:
o Da circa un anno e mezzo, la cancelliera tedesca Merkel ha aumentato le capacità di manovra tedesche, riallacciandosi alla politica del XIX secolo centrata su un’intesa con la Russia; lo spostamento del baricentro di alleanze della Germania è stato facilitato dalle recenti elezioni parlamentari tedesche.
o La Germania, potenza mondiale, deve andare oltre l’alleanza con Russia e Turchia.
– Durante la visita della cancelliera tedesca Merkel ad inizio luglio, il presidente kazako, Nazarbaev, si è dichiarato (a sorpresa, secondo una esperta tedesca) pro gasdotto Nabucco (gas dal Caspio all’Austria, via Turchia, Bulgaria, Romania e Ungheria), e ha criticato la lentezza dell’Europa nell’attuazione del progetto.
– La presa di posizione kazaka è un’opportunità cruciale che la UE non può permettersi di perdere: entro 12 mesi si deciderà sugli investimenti per una serie di progetti, tra cui Nabucco e il concorrente South Stream (sponsorizzato dalla Russia).
o Nazarbaev: non ancora pronte le condizioni per consentire la partecipazione del Kazakistan a Nabucco: un gasdotto sottomarino, o un impianto di liquefazione sulla sua costa del Caspio.
o Nazarbaev critica la UE anche per il progetto KCTS (Sistema di trasporto Kazakistan-Caspio) per portare il petrolio da Kashagan a Eskene, poi nei pressi di Tengiz e al porto di Kuryk presso Aqtau; da Aqtau per nave attraverso il Caspio fino all’Azerbaijan, dove entrerebbe nell’oleodotto Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC), dall’Azerbaijan al Mediterraneo orientale.
o Nel 2009 la Francia ha aderito al progetto, in vista della partecipazione di Total al consorzio di sviluppo di Kashagan e nella gestione di BTC.
§ Dato che la costruzione dell’oleodotto presenta dei problemi, il greggio potrebbe inizialmente essere trasportato via nave in Azerbaijan … ma anche per questo occorrono nuove infrastrutture … Si calcola che le petroliere non sarebbero più economicamente vantaggiose dopo il 2017 …
§ all’oleodotto potrebbe essere associato un gasdotto da Kashagan, ed uno dal Turkemenistan potrebbe confluire nella parte kazaka del Caspio, che eviterebbe la necessità di risolvere la disputa con l’Azerbaijan sul deposito di Kyapaz/Serdar che ha finora bloccato la cooperazione energetica tra i due paesi.
– La Merkel – prima in Russia ed ora in viaggio la Cina – sta creando le premesse diplomatiche a favore dell’industria tedesca.
– La visita in Russia – accompagnata da due decine di leader economici – fa da ammenda alla scarsa attenzione verso questo importante partner economico rimproveratale all’interno,
o e risponde alla nuova legge varata dal presidente russo, Medvedev che, riducendo da 208 a 41 il numero delle “imprese strategiche”, apre maggiori possibilità di investimento ai gruppi esteri, a sostegno del programma russo di modernizzazione economica e produttiva (e politica). La Germania è particolarmente interessata al rinnovamento della struttura industriale russa, settore energia in primis.
– Medvedev ha menzionato la Germania come primo partner per la modernizzazione, seguita da Francia, Italia, resto della Ue e USA.
– La Merkel interessata a sviluppare le relazioni economiche con la Cina, in crescente competizione con la Germania per l’import di materie prime dalla Russia, e per l’export di prodotti finiti in Russia.
La Cina è in concorrenza con la Ue per le esportazioni energetiche dal Kazakistan, dove ha una forte presenza ed ha investito per quasi un decennio in oleo- e gasdotti verso la Cina occidentale, e da qui verso il centro e soprattutto le sue regioni costiere orientali.
Asia Times 100731
La Cina trova un amico nella Germania
Jian Junbo
Tesi Asia Times:
● Cina e Germania stanno stringendo le relazioni di alleanza, come non sembrava possibile solo tre anni fa; Pechino potrebbe avvantaggiarsene nei rapporti di potenza internazionali.
● La Germania potrebbe essere per la Cina un alleato importante per rafforzare le sue relazioni con la UE e i suoi paesi membri, diversi dei quali hanno ancora un atteggiamento antagonistico verso la Cina.
—————–
– Terza visita in Cina della Merkel dall’inizio del suo cancellierato nel 2005, accompagnata da una delegazione di ministri e manager che si sono assicurati contratti per miliardi di € per i grandi gruppi tedeschi (Siemens, Daimler Benz, BASF e VW);
o firmato un comunicato congiunto, il secondo dalla ripresa delle relazioni diplomatiche nel 1972.
o Il presidente cinese parla di “significato storico” della visita della Merkel, espressione che segnala le attese cinesi di partnership strategica con la Germania, e non solo di relazioni economiche.
o Berlino sembra però più concentrata sulle relazioni economiche: la Cina è il maggior mercato estero della Germania; la Germania è il maggior partner commerciale cinese in Europa.
– 2009/2008: export tedesco in Cina €36,5 MD (+7% – dati Faz); import €55,5 MD; nello stesso periodo l’export tedesco complessivo – 18%, per crisi globale.
o Siemens, gigante tedesco dell’elettromeccanica, che funge da indicatore per l’andamento economico globale e tedesco: profitti trimestrali +9% ($1,38MD), anche grazie alla crescita delle vendite in Cina ed India.
o VW, maggior gruppo europeo dell’auto: profitti netti moltiplicati più di 5 volte (€1,35MD), grazie a +45% delle vendite in Asia; in particolare, +46% in Cina, a 951mila veicoli nel primo semestre 2010;
o Per VW la Cina è divenuta il suo primo mercato, sorpassando la Germania (vendite -16%, a 533mila). Un anno le vendite di VW nei due mercati erano circa alla pari.
– Nell’ott. 2007 la coalizione di governo tedesca emise un documento sulla strategia per l’Asia, il cui veniva individuata come centrale la bilancia di potenza tra i grandi paesi asiatici, e la necessità di attribuire maggiore importanza alle relazioni con Giappone e India; dare la preferenza ai rapporti con i paesi asiatici democratici (Giappone, India, Sud Corea ed Australia.
– La Cina in ascesa era ritenuta un’opportunità ma anche una sfida.
– Inizio 2008, Giochi olimpici di Pechino, circolarono voci secondo cui la Germania sosteneva finanziariamente e politicamente il “Movimento per il Tibet libero”; al contempo la Merkel assicurò il riconoscimento della politica cinese di “una sola Cina”, cioè niente appoggio all’indipendenza tibetana.
● Ottobre 2008, scoppio della crisi finanziaria internazionale à inizia a cambiare l’atteggiamento della Germania verso la Cina.
– Merkel ha visitato Xi’an, antica capitale di varie dinastie cinesi, a dimostrazione del rispetto di Berlino per verso la cultura cinese, considerata alla pari con quella tedesca.
– Data l’importanza della Cina per la Germania, la Merkel si è astenuta da critiche su questioni umanitarie, democrazia etc.
Nazarbaev faults Europe on Nabucco
By Robert M Cutler
– President Nursultan Nazarbaev of Kazakhstan publicly endorsed the Nabucco natural gas pipeline earlier this month – then criticized Europe for putting too much talk into the project and not enough action.
– Nabucco is projected to bring natural gas from the Caspian Sea basin to the Baumgarten gas hub in Austria via Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary.
– Putting his personal prestige behind the concept, Nazarbaev stated in Astana last week, at a joint press conference with visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel that "Kazakhstan has never been against Nabucco; the issue is that in Europe there is a lot of talk about Nabucco, but in practice little is being done," he said. "The European Union[e] could work more actively on this."
– Kazakhstan’s participation required either an undersea pipeline or, at a minimum, a gas liquefaction plant on the country’s Caspian Sea coastline, he said, but "nothing is being done on either issue except talk".
– Beate Eschment, a leading German expert on Kazakhstan, told Deutsche Welle that she was "very surprised" by Nazarbaev’s criticism of Europe’s pace in moving the project forward, which she called a " new development".
– Merkel was in Kazakhstan on her way to China. She had already visited Russia earlier in the month. The trips were undertaken mainly with a focus on economic diplomacy on behalf of German industry.
o In Russia, she was responding both to domestic critics who have disparaged her recent inattention to Moscow as an important German economic partner on the one hand and, on the other, to Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev’s signature, in June, on a bill that reduced the number of so-called "strategic enterprises" in the country from 208 to 41 and "federal unitary enterprises” from 230 to 159.
– This move is intended to increase opportunities for foreign investors to assist in Medvedev’s economic modernization program, by which he intends, he said in a speech to the Russian Foreign Ministry two weeks ago, to promote modernization of the political system as well.
– In that speech, which caused a stir in Moscow as reported by Kommersant, he emphasized the fight against organized crime and the strengthening of Russian democracy and civil society as tasks of Russian foreign policy.
– Insofar as the modernization of the economy and production were concerned, he named Germany in the first rank of foreign partners, followed by France, Italy, the rest of the European Union[e] and also the United States.
– Thus Merkel’s delegation included over two dozen German business leaders and scored some successes. The German side had its eyes especially on renovation of the Russian industrial plant, with special attention to the energy sector.
– Merkel was also concerned to promote economic ties in China, which is increasingly competitive with German imports of raw materials from Russia as well as exports of finished goods to Russia.
– China is also highly competitive with Europe for energy exports from Kazakhstan, where it has a strong presence in the sector and for nearly a decade has been building oil and gas pipelines into western China. From there, the resources are transmitted to the central and especially eastern coastal parts of the country to satisfy ever-growing demand.
– Nazarbaev’s criticism of the EU regarding Nabucco is also applicable to the Kazakhstan-Caspian Transportation System (KCTS) project, which is set to take oil from the huge offshore Kashagan deposit to Eskene, onshore near Tengiz, and on to the port of Kuryk, near Aqtau. From there, it will be shipped across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan for insertion into the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline from Azerbaijan to the eastern Mediterranean – the capacity of the pipeline would be increased for the purpose by up to 70% through the use of chemical additives and other technical means – or, alternatively, conveyed to the Black Sea coast for transshipment to Europe. (See Four-way street in Kazakhstan, Asia Times Online, September 18, 2009.)
– France signed onto that project last year, a significant development in light of the French company Total’s participation in the consortium developing Kashagan as well as in operating BTC pipeline.
o However, planning construction of this pipeline has hit snags, and it is possible that oil tankers will do the job of taking the crude to Azerbaijan in the beginning. Even that development, however, requires planning of construction facilities and logistical foresight. Initial start-up for the project, in whatever form it acquires, is still set for 2012.
– A pipeline across the seabed would be most cost-effective. Some estimates say the tanker transportation will not be cost-effective after 2017. A gas pipeline for associated gas from Kashagan could also run to Azerbaijan, and a pipeline from Turkmenistan could be built to join that pipeline in the Kazakhstan sector of the Caspian Sea,
– obviating the need for a solution to the dispute with Azerbaijan over the offshore Kyapaz/Serdar deposit that has up until now blocked bilateral cooperation on energy matters between the two countries.
– With investment decisions falling due within the next 12 months on a series of projects including Nabucco as well as the competing Russian-sponsored South Stream project, Nazarbaev’s public statement should serve to help focus the EU’s attention on the crucial window now approaching and threatening to close.
– Beginning about a year and a half ago, Merkel has been able progressively to increase her margin of maneuver vis-a-vis the German diplomatic tradition, reaching back into the 19th century, of centering its worldview on an entente with Russia. The movement from one coalition partner to another in the wake of the last parliamentary elections has facilitated that development.
– If Germany is to have a truly global profile, and assist Europe in finding its place in the future, then it must not restrict its vision to partnership with Russia and Turkey, and instead go beyond them in both the metaphorical and geographical senses.
Dr Robert M Cutler (http://www.robertcutler.org), educated at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Michigan, has researched and taught at universities in the United States, Canada, France, Switzerland, and Russia. Now senior research fellow in the Institute of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, Carleton University, Canada, he also consults privately in a variety of fields.
Jul 31, 2010
– SHANGHAI – China and Germany are moving toward a closer and friendlier partnership, a process that seemed highly unlikely just three years ago and which could provide Beijing with an influential ally on the world stage.
In mid-July, German Chancellor Angela Merkel paid a four-day visit to China to boost economic and political ties; this was her fourth trip since taking office in 2005. Notably, German President Horst Koehler paid a state visit to China two months ago.
– Merkel’s delegation, which included cabinet ministers and business people, secured contracts worth billions of euros for leading German corporations such as Siemens, Daimler Benz, BASF and Volkswagen. The countries also signed a joint communique, their second since they established formal diplomatic relations in 1972.
– When Merkel assumed office in November 2005, Beijing feared her hardline policy would seriously challenge the traditionally friendly Sino-German relationship. During her first China visit as head of government in September 2007, she talked openly about the importance of human rights and Chinese leaders did not take kindly to being lectured to.
– More upsetting for Beijing was that shortly after returning home from China, Merkel met the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader whom Beijing considers a separatist.
– Then, a month later, in October 2007, Merkel’s ruling coalition issued a report on its Asia strategy in which a new German-China policy was outlined.
– It stressed that Germany should balance its foreign policies among big Asian countries, which signaled that Merkel would attach greater importance to Germany’s relations with countries such as Japan and India.
– The report said that German partnerships could only be maintained when they were based on shared values and ideas. As such, Germany should form closer relations with democratic states, especially Japan, India, South Korea and Australia. Although seeing a rising China as a window of opportunity for Germany, the report considered China as more of a challenge.
– In early 2008, when the torch for the Beijing Summer Olympic Games was making its way through Europe, members of the Free Tibet movement – which wants independence for Tibet from China – were very active in Germany trying to sabotage the torch relay. There were reports that they were supported financially and politically by German non-governmental organizations and even politicians.
– In Beijing’s view, such antagonism toward China in German civil society was at least acquiesced, if not encouraged, by the German government on the pretext that Germany was a democratic and free society. All the same, in February 2008, Merkel, in a telephone conversation with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, had promised that her administration would actively adhere to the "one China" policy, that is, not support independence for Tibet.
– Then, shortly after the conclusion of the Beijing Olympics, the global financial crisis broke in the United States and quickly spread around the world, with Europe hit hard. In October 2008, Merkel visited China on the sidelines of an Asia-Europe summit in Beijing. Her visit signaled that China-Germany relations had started to improve.
– That improvement has continued, with Wen saying Merkel’s recent visit had "historical significance". The use of these words is important as they signify that major change(s) are underway. With these words, Chinese leaders expect China-Germany ties to become not only closer but also more stable than ever before, so that they evolve into a truly strategic partnership.
– In other words, Chinese leaders hope the partnership will be based not only on economic mutual benefit but also on political trust and strategic dependence, beyond quarrels over ideological differences.
– However, judging from the composition of Merkel’s delegation, Berlin is still more focused on economic matters. In one sense this is understandable as China is the biggest foreign market for Germany, and at the same time Germany is the biggest economic partner of China in Europe.
– Overall, German exports to China amounted to 36.5 billion euros (US$46.2 billion) last year, and imports totaled 55.5 billion euros, according to the German Federal Statistics Office. In the same year, Germany’s total exports dropped 18% due to the global economic slump, while its exports to China climbed 7%, according to the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
– Siemens, an electronics and engineering giant that is a bellwether for the global and German economies, said on Thursday that quarterly profits rose 9% to 1.44 billion euros (US$1.38 billion), in part "because of soaring sales in countries like China and India", the New York Times reported.
– Volkswagen, the largest carmaker in Europe, said net profit rose more than fivefold to 1.35 billion euros, fueled by a 45% surge in sales to Asia. Volkswagen saw huge gains in China, where unit sales rose 46% to 951,000 vehicles in the first six months of 2010.
– China now surpasses Germany, where sales fell 16% to 533,000 vehicles, as VW’s largest market. A year ago, sales in the two countries were almost even.
– The importance of China to Germany is clear, and significantly Merkel refrained from lecturing her Chinese hosts on the importance of human rights, although she did touch on the topic in a speech to students at the Central Party School, the Chinese Communist Party’s top training center for senior officials headed by Vice President Xi Jinping.
– For Beijing, Merkel not bringing up the topics of human rights, good governance and democracy in meetings with Chinese leaders is a constructive attitude toward building a stable and pragmatic partnership. These topics can be addressed in the annual human-rights dialogue between the two countries.
– It is interesting to note that Merkel visited Xi’an, the capital of Shanxi province in northwest China that was the national capital of several dynasties, including the Tang Dynasty (618-907 AD). This city, like Qufu in east Shandong province – the home town of Confucius – is undoubtedly a traditional culture center and in Chinese eyes, Merkel, by going to Xi’an, was showing her respect for Chinese culture. In other words, at least culturally, Berlin is now willing to consider China as an equal partner.
– Merkel also had some kind words, "We must learn to understand China, its great culture and huge potential." This indicates that she is open to discussing issues beyond bilateral ties with China, such as climate change, energy and the world financial order.
A study on European Union-China relations by the European Council on Foreign Relations, an influential think-tank, has suggested that the members of the European Union[e] should unite internally and with other powers, especially the US, to force China to yield to the West on issues such as human rights, trade protection, intellectual property rights and so on.
– The report serves evidence that some Europeans still look at China with antagonism and hostility. Ideological differences between China and Europe become their cheap weapon to fire against China and geo-economic conflicts are a useful excuse to criticize China.
– From this perspective alone, China’s relations with the EU and its member states could and should be strengthened to become more stable and constructive. In this regard, Germany could prove an important ally.
Dr Jian Junbo is assistant professor of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, Shanghai, China.