+ Wsj 110422, Gli Usa lanciano attacchi con in droni sulla Libia
– Il capo dello stato maggiore congiunto, ammiraglio Mullen: un mese di bombardamenti aerei ha distrutto il 30-40% delle capacità militari di Gheddafi, ma non è riuscito a dare una svolta significativa al conflitto.
– Il senatore repubblicano Usa dell’Arizona, McCain, forte sostenitore dell’intervento in Libia, già favorevole ad aiuti in denaro e armi ai ribelli in misura simile a quelli in sostegno dei ribelli anti-occupazione Urss in Afghanistan, anni ’80:
– Solo 6 paesi Nato sono impegnati nella guerra libica; gli Usa devono accrescere il proprio ruolo negli attacchi aerei Nato: il conflitto libico verso uno stallo, potrebbe offrire ad al-Qaeda la possibilità di prendere il controllo della Libia. Gli Usa devono riconoscere il Consiglio di transizione dei ribelli come governo legittimo, come già fatto da Francia, Italia e Qatar.
– Aiutare i ribelli, che sono fortemente inferiori per mezzi corazzati, equipaggiamenti e addestramento, con sostenuti attacchi aerei; togliere gli strumenti di propaganda di Gheddafi distruggendo le sue trasmittenti tv.
– Favorevole ad incremento bombardamenti anche il sen. rep. del Sud Carolina, Lindsey Graham.
– L’Amministrazione Obama la scorsa settimana ha autorizzato l’utilizzo dei droni e lo stanziamento di $25mn. di armi alle forze ribelli.
– Gates: un cambio di regime imposto dall’esterno, come per Irak e Balcani, è molto difficile, funziona meglio quando è fatto dall’interno, come per Tunisia ed Egitto; cerchiamo di proteggere l’opposizione, di ridurre le capacità militari di Gheddafi.
– Approvati dagli Usa gli attacchi missilistici con due aerei droni Predator sulla Libia per “scopi umanitari”, in risposta ad un cambiamento della tattica dei militari libici che si nascondono nei pressi di civili in aree urbane, alle quali i droni possono avvicinarsi maggiormente.
– La decisione Usa nel quadro dei recenti tentativi di superare lo stallo nei rapporti di forza Gheddafi-ribelli (GB e Francia hanno deciso l’invio di istruttori militari, utile secondo Gates a migliorare le capacità di comunicazione e di coordinamento dei ribelli).
– Obama avrebbe preferito lo facessero gli alleati …
– Non confermata la base di partenza dei droni americani, che per le loro operazioni partono spesso da quella di Jibuti, Corno d’Africa.
AfPak giunge in Africa
– È in vista il Vietnam di Obama, come sostenuto dall’ammiraglio Mullen, che ha dichiarato che si sta “certamente andando verso uno stallo”.
– Spaccare la Libia sarebbe la premessa per spaccare altri paesi africani dove la Cina ha fatto grossi investimenti; se l’Occidente entrasse militarmente in Nordafrica, ci sarebbero ripercussioni nel Sahel, già in fermento; Mali e Niger stanno ricevendo armi dai “ribelli” libici, che poi finiscono nelle mani di al-Qaeda del Maghreb (AQIM).
– Stallo, e danni collaterali, come in AfPak, dove un drone Predator ha fatto almeno 25 vittime a Mir Ali, Nord Waziristan, proprio mentre i ribelli libici davano il benvenuto ai droni.
– La Nato ha attaccato per la seconda volta in 5 settimane il complesso che ospita Gheddafi in Tripoli, dichiarando come obiettivo un “centro comunicazioni” al suo interno.
– L’attacco ha avuto luogo dopo la presentazione dei piani per la Libia dell’ex segretario di Stato Usa, Henry Kissinger:
o invadere la Libia, e restarci almeno fino alla primavera 2012; obiettivo
o mantenere Medio-Oriente e Nordafrica (Mena) in scompiglio come diversivo che Washington dovrebbe utilizzare per attaccare l’Iran per conto di Israele, a beneficio del complesso militar-industriale.
– Gheddafi sarebbe perfetto per questa farsa anglo-franco-americana:
o è un panafricano convinto, difensore dell’unità africana;
o la Libia non ha debiti verso le banche internazionali;
o non ha preso denaro a prestito dall’FMI per riforme strutturali;
o ha usato i proventi petroliferi per servizi sociali, tra cui il progetto Great Man River, e investimenti nei paesi sub sahariani.
– I droni americani, cinque per ora, con base in Sud Italia, al posto di soldati sul terreno, in modo da poter sostenere che gli Usa non stano aumentando l’impegno bellico.
Escobar ironizza: che peccato che il gruppo North Grumman non possa ancora dispiegare il suo potente X-47B, agile drone assassino che sarà pronto solo nel 2013, dopo la rielezione di Obama.
April 24, 2011
McCain Raises Specter of Libyan Stalemate
– Senator John McCain warned on Sunday that he feared the conflict in Libya was heading toward a “stalemate” and threatened to create a vacuum that could result in Al Qaeda gaining control of the North African country.
Speaking from Cairo, Mr. McCain, a strong advocate of intervention in Libya, said that Al Qaeda could take advantage of an encroaching stalemate as a tenacious Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi continued to cling to power.
– "I really fear a stalemate," said Mr. McCain, Republican of Arizona, speaking on CNN television’s “State of the Union” program after visiting the rebel strongholds in Libya. He said the rebel fighters were “badly outgunned in armor, in equipment, in training” against forces loyal to Col. Qaddafi.
– Mr. Qaddafi’s forces bombarded Misurata on Sunday, a day after rebels celebrated a retreat of government forces from the western Libyan city, Reuters reported, citing a telephone interview with the rebel spokesman Abdelsalam from Misurata. “Qaddafi’s brigades started random bombardment in the early hours of this morning. The bombardment is still going on,” he said.
– Mr. McCain said he feared it was “very possible” that Al Qaeda could come in and take advantage a potential stalemate, but he insisted he did not agree with calls for the United States to bomb Tripoli or put troops on the ground. “We have tried those things in the past with other dictators, and it’s a little harder than you think it is,” he said.
– Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, also called for robust air support for the rebels and told CNN that NATO forces should bomb Col. Qaddafi’s inner circle. “I think the focus should now be to cut the head of the snake off,” he said.
– Mr. McCain told CNN that he supported the first missile attack from a drone aircraft in Libya as fighting in the rebel-held city of Misurata became increasingly bloody. “I’m glad the Predator is now in the fight,” McCain said. “We need the American air assets back in a heavier way.”
– The unmanned plane was used for the first time in the conflict in Libya on Saturday to attack a site near Misurata. But the Obama administration is deeply resistant to expanding American military involvement. The administration last week authorized the use of armed drones in Libya and a $25 million contribution of nonlethal military surplus for the rebel forces.
– Mr. McCain’s warning of a stalemate in Libya echoed comments on Friday by the top American military officer. Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that a month of airstrikes had destroyed 30 percent to 40 percent of the capabilities of the military forces loyal to Col. Qaddafi, but had not yet drastically tilted the conflict with opposition militias one way or another. He cited shifts in tactics by Libyan forces that made it difficult for NATO warplanes to distinguish them from the rebel fighters and civilians.
– Britain and France have been leading air strikes against Col. Qaddafi’s forces in a NATO-supported operation mandated by the United Nations Security Council in the name of protecting civilians from atrocities.
– Mr. McCain said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” program that the United States should increase its role in North Atlantic Treaty Organization air attacks against Libya, saying that only six NATO nations were engaged in the conflict. He also reiterated his call for the United States to recognize the rebels’ governing council as the country’s legitimate government, as France, Italy and Qatar have done. He has previously called for the United States to provide the rebels with money and arms on a scale similar to what the United States did in support of those who fought the Soviet Union’s occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s.
He also insisted that destroying Col. Qaddafi’s television broadcast capabilities could prove instrumental in depriving him of the propaganda machine he was using to try and frighten the Libyan people in submission.
U.S. Launches Drone Strikes in Libya – Attacks Aim to Protect Civilians Amid a Shift in Strategy by Gadhafi’s Troops; ‘the Character of the Fight Has Changed’
By JULIAN E. BARNES
The U.S. will deploy armed drones over Libya in a move it claims will aid the "humanitarian situation" in the north African nation. WSJ’s Nathan Hodge says the experience in other conflict zones suggests the deployment should work.
– WASHINGTON—The U.S. said it is starting to use armed drones to carry out missile strikes against Col. Moammar Gadhafi’s troops in Libya, despite the Obama administration’s vow to leave such offensive missions to its allies.
– Defense officials said the airstrikes—which will target Libyan troops hiding near civilians in urban areas—were necessary to respond to a shift in tactics by the Libyan military. Allied aircraft have proved unable to fully protect civilians and rebel forces under heavy attack from Gadhafi loyalists. The drones can get closer, allowing more-precise strikes, and loiter longer, giving them a better chance of finding hidden targets.
"The president has said where we have unique capabilities, he is willing to use those," Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday, as he announced the drone strikes.
– The U.S. is putting two Predator drones, each equipped with two Hellfire missiles, in Libyan airspace around the clock. The first Predator attack sorties were launched Thursday, though after the aircraft took off, weather conditions prevented any strikes.
President Barack Obama has based his Libya policy on the notion that the U.S. would take a back-seat role in protecting rebels and civilians from Col. Gadhafi’s forces. After leading the initial attacks last month, the U.S. turned over responsibility for hitting armored columns and other ground forces to French, British and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization nations.
Marine Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the shift was necessary because the Libyan military has altered its tactics. Libyan units are now trying to blend in with civilians in congested areas, such as the besieged city of Misrata.
– "The character of the fight has changed," Gen. Cartwright said. "Things that are out in the open know that they will probably perish if a NATO bird sees them. You are seeing a much more dispersed fight, people that are digging in or nestling up against crowded areas."
– The U.S. move follows other recent steps ratcheting up the allied mission to overcome what appears to be a bloody stalemate between Libyan government and rebel forces. Britain, France and Italy have said they will put military trainers on the ground in Libya to aid the rebels. Mr. Gates said the training assistance could address a key rebel weakness, improving rebels’ ability to communicate and battlefield coordination.
– Mr. Gates denied that the addition of armed Predators signaled a re-escalation of the U.S. role. He also expressed confidence that NATO would be able to continue enforcing the no-fly zone and weakening the Libyan military. As Libya’s military strength is eroded by allied attacks, Col. Gadhafi should be less able to squelch future uprisings in Libyan cities, Mr. Gates said.
"Day after day," Mr. Gates said, "the capabilities of his military are being reduced."
Although Mr. Obama has said the NATO military operation won’t cease as long as Col. Gadhafi remains in power, Mr. Gates emphasized that regime change in Libya remains a political—not a military—goal.
It was critical, he said, for the Libyans, not NATO, to oust Col. Gadhafi.
– "Regime change imposed from the outside, as we have seen in Iraq and in the Balkans, is incredibly difficult and works best as we have seen in Tunisia and Egypt when it is done from within," Mr. Gates said. "We are trying to provide enough space to protect the opposition…. To the extent we can we are reducing his [Col. Gadhafi’s] military capability."
Drones have been used for reconnaissance missions from the start of the conflict, but in recent days, NATO commanders had asked the U.S. to provide armed Predator strikes.
Mr. Gates said the use of the drones to strike targets in Misrata, and potentially other cities under Libyan military attack, is consistent with the United Nations-endorsed mission of preventing a humanitarian disaster.
The Predators being used in Libya weren’t taken from Afghanistan, Gen. Cartwright said. The U.S. has often operated Predators from its base in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa, though officials declined to identify exactly where the drones would be based during the Libya mission.
AfPak comes to Africa
– Be it liberal hawk or neo-conservative interventionism, one’s got to love the proficient American way of techno war. Just as quite a few insider circles in Washington – and London – had been making a lot of noise for ramping up Western interventionism in Libya, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) this Monday hit Muammar Gaddafi’s Bab al-Azizya compound in Tripoli for the second time in five weeks.
– NATO insists it was not targeting the colonel – but a "communications center" inside the compound. Right; as if United Nations Security Council resolution 1973 authorized bombing Gaddafi’s compound as a means of "protecting civilians".
– This "kinetic activity" took place after former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger had been hammering his endgame for Libya on at least three different occasions; at George Washington University’s Elliot School of International Affairs; at an Aspen Institute session on "Values and Diplomacy", also in Washington; and at the Bretton Woods II conference in New Hampshire.
– Kissinger’s plan: invade Libya and keep this thing going until at least the spring of 2012. The (wacky) agenda; keep MENA (Middle East/Northern Africa) in total disarray as a diversionist tactic/pretext for Washington to attack Iran on behalf of Israel – to the benefit of the military-industrial complex. Maybe prospective US presidential candidate Field Marshall von Trump – aka the Donald – should command the invasion.
– Gaddafi is the perfect villain for this Anglo-French-American farce unworthy of French playwright Georges Feydeau. For all his dictatorial megalomania,
o Gaddafi is a committed pan-African – a fierce defender of African unity. Libya was not in debt to international bankers.
o It did not borrow cash from the International Monetary Fund for any "structural adjustment".
o It used oil money for social services – including the Great Man Made River project, and investment/aid to sub-Saharan countries. Its independent central bank was not manipulated by the Western financial system. All in all a very bad example for the developing world.
– Breaking up Libya would be just the hors d’oeuvres for breaking up other parts of Africa where China has sizable investments. Yes, because if Western boots hit the ground in northern Africa, the "footprint" will reach the Sahel – which is already in turbulence; Mali and Niger are receiving weapons from the "rebels" in Libya that are ending up in the hands of al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM). The powers that be in Algeria and Morocco – where pro-democracy protests continue non-stop – are already freaking out.
All these variables should be kept on close watch. For the moment, this spring’s humanitarian blockbuster has got to be The Drones of Libya – another Pentagon/White House/State Department co-production straight out of Hollywood, sorry, Creech Air Force Base in Nevada.
– Why haven’t they thought about this before; an army of drones (only five for the moment, based in southern Italy) instead of boots on the ground. Pentagon chief Robert Gates actually claimed the drones will strike Libya for "humanitarian reasons" (any hint of irony was as invisible as a drone camera). Gates had already misled the US Congress a few weeks ago, saying that the US role in Libya would end once NATO was in command.
– So now it’s time to crank-up that X-Box; time for the "cubicle warriors" to raise hell by dragging a mouse. Here’s American techno war at its best; bring on the kids who grew up playing video games to fight – virtually – in the desert; the system’s controls after all are modeled after video games.
– Here are some things the Hellfire missiles will be up against in Libya. A gross domestic product per capita of US$14,192; unemployment benefits of around $730 a month; nurses being paid $1,000 a month; no major taxes; free education and medicine; interest-free loans for buying a car and an apartment. Quite a few unemployed Americans wouldn’t mind a one-way ticket to Tripoli.
– The attack of the drones is on so Washington may pretend it’s not by any means expanding its "kinetic military action" – which is not a war. Kissinger was right on at least one count after all: President Barack Obama has made a bet on this air war to run through 2012 and feed on his re-election.
Then there’s that pesky "collateral damage" issue (Who cares? Drones can fly 24 hours straight and provide, in Pentagon newspeak, "extended persistence"). Gaddafi’s military has already morphed into civilians and are melting away Mao Zedong and Ho Chi Minh-style. Obama’s Vietnam looms – what with Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, saying this is "certainly moving toward a stalemate".
– Stalemate (and "collateral damage") as in AfPak; at least 25 people were killed by a Predator in Mir Ali, 35 kilometers east of Miranshah, in the North Waziristan tribal area – just as the arrival of the drones was hailed by the Libyan "rebels". Enterprising Gaddafi-related forces – and tribals – anyway are already busy working on their Pakistani-inspired shoot-a-Predator techniques, as in groups of four people placed apart using rocket-propelled grenades.
– What a pity Northrop Grumman still cannot deploy its mighty X-47B – a lean, mean killer drone which was launched last February with its own Blue Oyster Cultish music video (see here ). The killer will only be available in 2013 – after War-o-Bama gets re-elected.
Meanwhile, a clean video game war will run with a few "morally acceptable" accidents (as in "collateral damage"). And here operation Odyssey Dawn comes back full circle. The US is back where it feels most comfortable – not playing Ulysses in the Mediterranean, but playing Zeus from above, with Predators instead of thunderbolts.
A super fresh, old-school, throw down, futuristic dance contest remix of Fatboy Slim’s Weapon of Choice would now be in order. Featuring, instead of Christopher Walken, a Pixar-designed dancing drone. And as master of ceremonies, Field Marshall von Trump, finally free to invade and take the oil. Didn’t work in Iraq. Might as well work in Libya.
Pepe Escobar is the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble Books, 2007) and Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge. His new book, just out, is Obama does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009).