Il Pakistan cercherebbe un suo ruolo nei negoziati Usa-Afghanistan
Il Pakistan offre di mediare tra talebani e Washington
● In una regione in cui Pakistan, India, Cina, Iran, etc. competono per il potere, la proposta pakistana sta a sottolineare che per giungere ad una soluzione della guerra occorrerà tener conto dei paesi vicini all’Afghanistan.
● Secondo funzionari occidentali non meglio identificati, gli Usa non possono permettersi di impantanarsi nel conflitto afghano, e devono tirarsi a bordo i pakistani per garantire il controllo dell’Afghanistan, quando si ritireranno. Il Pakistan è il solo alleato USA in grado di farlo. (CBS News)
● Il Pakistan vuole un ruolo centrale nella guerra afghana, ha offerto la sua mediazione con le fazioni talebane sul proprio territorio, a lungo sue alleate,
o per poter mantenere la propria influenza in Afghanistan (in particolare nel Sud), dopo il ritiro americano, e contenervi la crescente presenza indiana.
o Un’ala dell’Amministrazione Obama è per consentire ai pakistani di tenersi gli Haqqani come parte della loro influenza nel Sud Afghanistan,
o ma solo se i pakistani li costringono a rompere con al-Qaeda, e a sgomberare i loro guerriglieri dall’area.
o Le Figaro: Non è affatto certo che il Pakistan sia in grado di costringere gli Haqqani a separarsi da al-Qaeda.
– Le Figaro definisce la proposta pakistana “un grosso masso nel giardino dell’India”. I pakistani possono chiedere agli americani di fare pressione sull’India perché riduca le proprie ambizioni e la propria influenza in Afghanistan; sanno che gli Usa hanno interesse ad avere un regime amico a Kabul, dove da tempo prevedono il ritorno al potere di “certi talebani”.
o Per questo l’esercito pakistano, nonostante le pressioni americane, non ha mai lanciato importanti operazioni contro i talebani afghani in Pakistan, né contro la “rete Haqqani” né contro la “Shura (Consiglio) di Quetta”, vale a dire il governo dei talebani afghani in esilio, rifugiato nel Belucistan, il cui capo è il Mullah Omar.
– Il Pakistan può esercitare la propria influenza sulla rete talebana di Jalaluddin e Siraj[uddin] Haqqani, il maggiore (“più letale” secondo Washington) raggruppamento di forze che combatte i soldati americani e Nato in gran parte del Sud Afghanistan, dove avrebbe 4000 guerriglieri; la loro roccaforte è nel Nord Waziristan, area tribale pakistana.
o Le forze Jalaluddin and Siraj Haqqani, alleate di al-Qaeda, sono da tempo anche legate ai militari e all’intelligence pakistana.
o Il Pakistan fu uno degli unici tre paesi (con Arabia Saudita e Emirati Arabi Uniti) a riconoscere il regime talebano al governo in Afghanistan, dove mantenne la propria ambasciata; gli stretti legami con il movimento talebano furono rotti dal generale Musharraf dopo l’11 settembre.
o L’offerta pakistana è stata avanzata dal generale Ashfaq Parvez Kayani [altra dizione “Kiyani] durante un incontro con la presenza del capo di stato maggiore, Mullen, del capo del comando centrale, Petraeus, del comandante delle truppe americane ed alleate in Afghanistan, McChrystal.
o Kayani ha di recente rilasciato la sua prima conferenza stampa ad alcune organizzazioni occidentali, offrendo l’aiuto pakistano ad addestrare reclute per un nuovo esercito e polizia afgani.
o Finora gli USA hanno preferito che il Pakistan combattesse i talebani, chiedendo che attaccassero la base di Haqqani nel Nord Waziristan, piuttosto che negoziare con essi, e non hanno accettato il nuovo approccio del Pakistan.
– Il generale Kayani ha fatto comprendere che per l’esercito pakistano l’India è ancora il maggior nemico, che l’esercito pakistano non ha forze sufficienti per aprire un nuovo fronte nel Nord Waziristan, sguarnendo il fronte orientale; ha anche dichiarato apertamente che il Pakistan ha “interessi strategici di lungo termine in Afghanistan”.
o La riluttanza pakistana ad attaccare gli Haqqani, fa in modo che questi rimangano una merce di scambio al tavolo negoziale e uno strumento che il Pakistan può utilizzare nell’Afghanistan del dopoguerra. È da vedere se il Pakistan è in grado di farlo. (Syed Rifaat Hussain, professore di relazioni internazionale presso l’Università di Islamabad, vicino all’Esercito pakistano).
– Una base per un accordo USA-Pakistan sarebbe che il Pakistan riesca a distaccare la rete Haqqani dai leader di al-Qaeda. Sinora i pakistani hanno avuto scarso successo in quest’opera. I pakistani vorrebbero prima sapere dove andrebbero i guerriglieri di al-Qaeda, e se verrà loro consentito di trasferirsi liberamente in Yemen, o altrove.
o Dal 2001, quando i leader di al-Qaeda se ne sono andati dall’Afghanistan, hanno usato le aree tribali per legarsi strettamente agli Haqqani e ad altri gruppi di guerriglieri, compresi i talebani pakistani.
Il 30 dicembre 2009 gli Haqqani avrebbero aiutato al-Qaeda e i talebani pakistani in un attacco suicida contro una base CIA in S. Afghanistan, con 6 vittime americane; dopo questo attacco gli americani hanno aumentato i bombardamenti sul N. Waziristan, aiutati dall’intelligence pakistana.
February 10, 2010
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Pakistan has told the United States it wants a central role in resolving the Afghan war and has offered to mediate with Taliban factions who use its territory and have long served as its allies, American and Pakistani officials said.
– The offer, aimed at preserving Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan once the Americans leave, could both help and hurt American interests as Washington debates reconciling with the Taliban.
– Pakistan’s army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, made clear Pakistan’s willingness to mediate at a meeting late last month at NATO headquarters with top American military officials, a senior American military official familiar with the meeting said.
It is a departure from Pakistan’s previous reluctance to approach the Taliban. The meeting included the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen; the head of Central Command, Gen. David H. Petraeus; and the commander of American and allied troops in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the official said.
“The Pakistanis want to be part of discussions that could involve reconciliation,” the official said.
Pakistan’s desire to work with the United States in an Afghanistan endgame is likely to be discussed when the national security adviser, Gen. James L. Jones, visits Islamabad, this week. So far, the United States has been more eager to push Pakistan to fight Taliban than to negotiate with them, and has not endorsed Pakistan’s new approach.
– The Pakistani offer makes clear that any stable solution to the war will have to take into account Afghanistan’s neighbors, in a region where Pakistan, India, China, Iran and others all jostle for power.
Pakistani officials familiar with General Kayani’s thinking said that even as the United States adds troops to Afghanistan, he has determined that the Americans are looking for a fast exit. The impression, they said, was reinforced by President Obama’s scant mention of the war in his State of the Union[e] address.
– What the Pakistanis can offer is their influence over the Taliban network of Jalaluddin and Siraj Haqqani, whose forces American commanders say are the most lethal battling American and NATO soldiers in Afghanistan.
– From their stronghold in Pakistan’s tribal area of North Waziristan, the Haqqanis exert sway over large parts of southern Afghanistan and have staged major terrorist attacks in Kabul, American officials say.
– They are close allies of Al Qaeda. But they also have long ties to Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies that have protected them inside Pakistani territory.
– In return for trying to rein in the Haqqanis, Pakistan will be looking for a friendly Afghanistan and for ways to stem the growing Indian presence there, Pakistani and American officials said.
– In briefings last week with reporters at his army headquarters, the usually reticent General Kayani repeated his offer at NATO to play a constructive role, while making it clear Pakistan was seeking broad influence in southern Afghanistan. The Haqqani network would be one of Pakistan’s strongest levers to do that.
– American officials said Washington was still debating the contours of any negotiated solution. But a baseline for Pakistan, they said, would be for it to engineer a separation between the Haqqani network and the Qaeda leadership.
– For the moment, the United States has been looking instead for military help from Pakistan to tamp down Taliban and Qaeda strength in southern Afghanistan, where the Haqqanis command an estimated 4,000 fighters, American military officials say.
– The Americans have been pushing General Kayani to launch an offensive against the Haqqanis’ base in North Waziristan.
– At the Jan. 26 NATO meeting with General Kayani, American military commanders reviewed the list of hardware — MI-17 helicopters, ammunition for Cobra attack helicopters, body armor, armored vehicles — that has been put on a fast track to the Pakistani military as an inducement to take on the Haqqanis.
But General Kayani, who pleased the Americans with an operation against the Pakistani Taliban in South Waziristan last fall, was unmoved. “There is no need at this point to start a steamroller operation in North Waziristan,” he told reporters last week.
Last month he took General McChrystal on a helicopter tour over the mountains of the Swat Valley, where Pakistani paratroopers landed last summer to flush out Taliban insurgents.
– The message was that the Pakistani Army still regarded India as its primary enemy and was stretched too thin to open a new front.
– The reluctance to take on the Haqqanis preserves them as both a prize to be delivered at the negotiating table and a potential asset for Pakistan in postwar Afghanistan, said Syed Rifaat Hussain, professor of international relations at Islamabad University, who is close to the Pakistani Army.
– “Haqqani is the guy we are banking on to regain lost influence in Afghanistan,” Mr. Hussain said. “When Pakistan says we are well positioned to help, that means the Haqqanis.”
– One strand of thinking within the Obama administration calls for allowing the Pakistanis to keep the Haqqanis as part of Pakistan’s sphere of influence in southern Afghanistan, but only if Pakistan forces the Haqqanis to break with Al Qaeda and to push militants out of its areas, an American official said.
– That would be a tall order for Pakistan, Mr. Hussain said. “The question is, how much influence do we have over Haqqani?” he said. “We have influence but not controlling influence.”
– Since Qaeda leaders escaped Afghanistan in 2001, they have used Pakistan’s tribal areas to cement their ties to the Haqqanis and other militants, including the Pakistani Taliban.
– A chilling example came on Dec. 30 when, according to American officials, the Haqqanis helped Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban stage a suicide attack at a C.I.A. base in southern Afghanistan, killing seven Americans working for the agency.
– Since that attack, the Americans have escalated drone strikes in North Waziristan, with the help of intelligence provided by Pakistan, a demonstration that Pakistan’s ability to shield the Haqqanis extends only so far.
– Pakistani efforts to persuade the Haqqanis to break with Al Qaeda have not made much headway, according to Pakistani intelligence and military officials, who declined to be named because they were not authorized to talk about the issue.
– According to a Pakistani military official, the Pakistanis would first have to resolve where Qaeda fighters would go and whether they might be given safe passage to Yemen or another location.
As the Pakistani military works out the details of its negotiating stance on Afghanistan, Washington is taking notice, said Daniel Markey, senior fellow for South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“The United States side is pretty worried about seeing a deal emerge that suits everyone other than us,” he said.
Ismail Khan contributed reporting from Peshawar, Pakistan.
February 10, 2010 1:12 PM
(AP/Inter Services Public Relations)
– Pakistan has offered to mediate talks between U.S. officials and members of Afghanistan’s Taliban movement aimed at ending the conflict in the central Asian country, a senior Pakistani government official told CBS News’ Farhan Bokhari Wednesday.
– Commenting on a report published earlier today in The New York Times, the Pakistani official confirmed the offer made by General Ashfaq Parvez Kiyani (Pakistan’s army chief of staff) during a visit last month to NATO headquarters in Belgium.
"Pakistan is best-placed to be a facilitator of a conciliatory move," said the official, who spoke to CBS News on condition of anonymity. "That is what we have now told our American friends.
"Pakistan has the clout to try to bring some otherwise irreconcilable elements to the table," the official added.
– Last week, General Kiyani met with journalists from a few selected Western news organizations (including CBS News) for his first-ever on the record press briefing at the Pakistan army’s heavily-fortified headquarters in Rawalpindi, just outside Islamabad.
-The high point of General Kiyani’s briefing was a signal to the U.S. and its NATO allies, offering a role for Pakistan in training recruits to a newly-planned national army and national police force for Afghanistan.
– Following General Kiyani’s briefing, Pakistani officials said that country’s role was likely to be significant, as it had established close links in the past with Islamic militants, including the Taliban during their rule of Afghanistan. (Pakistan was one of just three countries which recognized the Taliban regime — the others being Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — and maintained an embassy in Kabul.)
– Following the 9/11 terror attacks, Pakistan’s former military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, abandoned his country’s closely-built ties with the Taliban movement.
Responding to news of Pakistan’s offer to the U.S., Western diplomats in Pakistan expressed mixed reaction. Some warned that the offer of support to the U.S. was unlikely to gain much momentum, given Washington’s suspicions over the Pakistani security establishment’s continued links with Taliban militants.
– For months, Western officials have privately complained about an inadequate push by Islamabad against members of the network of notorious Afghan warlord Sirajuddin Haqqani. Known to some as the "Haqqani network," this group (which is allied with the Taliban) is thought to have carried out a number of attacks on Western troops in Afghanistan during the past year.
– But others said the U.S. cannot afford to lock itself in an open-ended conflict in Afghanistan, and needs to bring Pakistan on board in order to guarantee security mechanisms remain in place once U.S. troops have left.
"I know there are many who will criticize reliance on Pakistan given Pakistan’s own history," said a senior Western diplomat in Islamabad who spoke to on condition of anonymity. "But the U.S. needs an ally who is able and willing to hold the security apparatus together. In this case, Pakistan is not one such ally; in fact, it’s the only U.S. ally."
The diplomat characterized General Kiyani’s offer as "a serious new beginning."
Par Marie-France Calle le 10 février 2010 12h04 | Lien permanent | Commentaires (14)
– Le Pakistan – ou plus exactement l’establishment militaire pakistanais – a fermement offert ses bons offices aux Américains pour amener à la table des négociations les talibans afghans qui se trouvent en territoire pakistanais.
o Une manière pour Islamabad de placer ses pions en Afghanistan dans la perspective d’un départ des troupes de l’Otan. Et une grosse pierre dans le jardin de l’Inde.
– Le New York Times le confirme dans son édition d’aujourd’hui, le général Kayani a proposé la médiation pakistanaise aux Américains lors d’une réunion aux quartiers généraux de l’Otan à Bruxelles, le mois dernier. " Il s’agit là d’un changement d’attitude du Pakistan, qui s’était toujours montré réticent à approcher les talibans", relève le quotidien américain. Indiquant que le chef d’état-major des armées US, Mike Mullen; le commandant du "Centcom", le général David H. Petraeus; et le commandant des forces de la coalition en Afghanistan, le général Stanley McChrystal, participaient à cette réunion.
"Les Pakistanais veulent prendre part aux discussions qui pourraient conduire à une réconciliation" en Afghanistan, a confié au New York Times un haut-gradé américain.
– La motivation pakistanaise est claire : en jouant un rôle actif dans des négociations entre les talibans et les Etats-Unis, Islamabad entend bien préserver son influence en Afghanistan après le départ des troupes de l’Otan.
o Les Pakistanais savent qu’ils ont tout intérêt à avoir un "régime ami" à Kaboul, où ils anticipent depuis longtemps le retour de "certains talibans" au pouvoir.
o C’est d’ailleurs la raison pour laquelle, malgré les pressions répétées des Etats-Unis, l’armée pakistnaise n’a jamais lancé d’opérations d’envergure contre les talibans afghans qui se trouvent au Pakistan. Pas plus contre "le réseau Haqqani", qui a trouvé refuge dans la zone tribale du Waziristan du Nord, que contre la "Choura (Conseil) de Quetta", en clair le gouvernement des talibans afghans en exil, qui a trouvé refuge au Baloutchistan, et dont le chef n’est autre que Mollah Omar.
– Or, les Haqqanis sont liés à Al-Qäïda et Washington les considère comme étant les "forces les plus léthales" en Afghanistan, comme le souligne le New York Times. Ils contrôlent la plupart des opérations contre les forces de la coalition dans le Sud-Afghan et seraient à l’origine de nombre d’attentats meurtriers à Kaboul. Ils auraient également aidé à organiser l’attaque-suicide du 30 décembre 2009 contre la base américaine Chapman, tuant sept agents de haut niveau de la CIA. Pour autant, Islamabad ménage les Haqqanis.
– Pour les Etats-Unis, l’offre de médiation du général Kayani est à double tranchant. Elle pourrait, certes, les aider à "sortir du bourbier afghan". Mais Washington n’a pas encore clairement défini les contours d’une solution négociée du conflit afghan. Il y a un point, cependant sur lequel les Américains ne sont pas prêts à transiger, les talibans afghans doivent cesser de coopérer avec Al-Qaïda.
– Le Pakistan est-il en mesure de forcer les Haqqanis à se séparer d’Al-Qaïda ? Rien n’est moins sûr. Mais tant que la question reste ouverte, les Haqqanis représentent un énorme atout pour Islamabad.
– Les Pakistanais pouvant notamment se payer le luxe de demander aux Américains de faire pression sur l’Inde, lui demandant de réduire ses ambitions et son influence en Afghanistan.
– Le général Kayani a été clair sur le sujet. Le chef des armées pakistanaises, qui ne s’était jamais beaucoup exprimé, et surtout pas devant les médias, a donné la semaine dernière deux conférences de presse, l’une pour les journalistes étrangers (les Indiens n’ont pas été invités…), l’autre pour les journalistes pakistanais. Il y a réitéré qu’une offensive pakistanaise dans le Nord-Waziristan n’était pas à l’ordre du jour, car il était hors de question de dégarnir le front Est, à la frontière indienne.
– L’armée pakistanaise reste "India-centric", je l’ai dit aux commandants de l’Otan lors de la réunion de Bruxelles, a-t-il indiqué. Kayani a également affirmé sans détours que le Pakistan avait des "intérêts stratégiques à long terme en Afghanistan" et qu’il était vital de les conserver. "L’Afghanistan est mon passé, mon présent et mon avenir", a martelé Kayani. Précisant: "Nous voulons conserver une profondeur stratégique en Afghanistan, sans pour autant vouloir le contrôler".