WSJ 120126
L’IRAN STA PENSANDO DI ANTICIPARE L’EMBARGO PETROLIFERO DELLA UE
BENOÎT FAUCON
– A seguito del consenso UE all’embargo petrolifero contro l’Iran – l’importazione di 600 000 b/g dal 1° luglio – il parlamento iraniano sta pensando di interrompere bruscamente, già dalla prossima settimana l’export di petrolio verso l’Europa, pari al 5,8% del fabbisogno europeo nel 2010 – per danneggiare la UE facendo salire i prezzi.
o Secondo la società di consulenza Petromatrix, la mossa iraniana sarebbe inefficace sul medio termine, e fornirebbe il pretesto ai paesi arabi del Golfo di sostituire il petrolio iraniano;
o e la International Energy Agency potrebbe fornire alla UE una quota delle sue riserve strategiche.
– A dic. 2011 l’Iran aveva minacciato la chiusura dello stretto di Hormuz, da cui passa oltre la me-tà dell’export dei paesi OPEC.
– Il parlamento iraniano ha chiesto all’OPEC di intervenire contro l’Arabia Saudita (maggior produttore OPEC), che si è detta pronta a fornire il petrolio che verrebbe a mancare. (A metà dicembre c’era stato un accordo Iran-Arabia Saudita, per il mantenimento del livello di produzione)
– L’Arabia Saudita produce circa 1,5 mn b/g oltre la propria quota OPEC, la maggior parte dei membri Opec non rispettano le quote stabilite ma non aggiornate da tre anni.
– L’Opec ha cercato di rimanere fuori dagli scontri; il suo presidente è Abdel Karim al-Luaiby, ministro iracheno del petrolio: l’Opec non deve occuparsi di politica.
o Mentre il presidente iraniano Ahmadinejad ha minimizzato le conseguenze delle sanzioni UE sull’economia iraniana,
o Il capo della Banca centrale iraniana ha comunicato la svalutazione del Rial, la moneta iraniana, rispetto al dollaro (da 11 296 rial/$ a 12 260 rial/$, probabilmente a riconoscimento della sua forte svalutazione sul mercato nero a causa delle nuove sanzioni contro l’Iran.
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WSJ 111208
IL GIAPPONE IMPONE NUOVE SANZIONI ALL’IRAN
YOREE KOH
– Dopo le decisioni di Usa, Uk e UE, anche il Giappone ha comunicato nuove sanzioni finanziarie contro l’Iran,
– ma non ridurrà le sue importazioni di petrolio iraniano, circa il 10% del totale delle sue importazioni di petrolio.
Wsj 120126
Iran Mulls Pre-empting EU Oil Embargo
By BENOÎT FAUCON
LONDON—Iran said Thursday it was considering pre-empting a European Union[e] oil embargo and called on the Organiza-tion of Petroleum Exporting Countries to intervene against a Saudi pledge to fill the supply gap, as its strongest response to date to the EU ban drove oil prices higher.
– In remarks carried by Iran’s parliament website Icana, Mohammad Karim Abedi, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said that at "the first open session of parliament [Sunday], we will pursue sanctions against Europe.
– "It could happen next week, not in six months [the date when] Europe has claimed the boycott will begin," he said.
– Monday, the EU agreed to ban Iranian oil imports—about 600,000 barrels a day—from July 1 as it ratchets up pressure over Tehran’s controversial nuclear program. But Iranian lawmakers want an abrupt halt of the exports—accounting for 5.8% of EU needs in 2010—in order to push prices higher and hurt European economies.
– Iran last month warned it could block the Strait of Hormuz export route used for over half of OPEC’s exports. The rhetoric worked, driving the Brent crude oil contract up over 1% Thursday to hit an intra-day high of $111.40 a barrel.
– Iranian lawmakers are also stepping up pressure on Saudi Arabia, which has said it was ready to fill the gap, and called on OPEC to intervene.
– Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, has said it was ready to supply additional oil to its customers with-out mentioning Iran. But Tehran, which has already cautioned the Saudis against such move, is now threatening to drag the producer group into the spat.
– Nasser Soudani, deputy head of the Iranian parliament’s Energy Commission, called on OPEC to hold an "urgent meeting" to condemn what he called a Saudi violation of its commitments and come up with a strategy for its expulsion, Iranian agency ISNA reported.
– Saudi Arabia is producing about 1.5 million a barrels a day above its OPEC quota. But most OPEC members aren’t re-specting the allocations, which haven’t been updated in three years.
– The verbal escalation comes after the Saudis and Iranians in mid-December managed to patch up their differences, moving on from a cantankerous June OPEC meeting by agreeing to keep production unchanged. But tensions resumed soon after when Iran late last month warned it could block the Strait of Hormuz, an export route used for over half of OPEC’s exports.
– OPEC, however, has tried to stay away from the mounting confrontation. Abdel Karim al-Luaiby, Iraqi oil minister and OPEC president, said Sunday in Tehran that the group shouldn’t dabble in politics.
– Swiss-based consultancy Petromatrix said the Iranian response was likely to be ineffective in the me-dium term. A pre-emptive embargo will provide justification for the Arab countries in the Gulf to replace Iranian oil, it said.
– The International Energy Agency could also release some of its strategic stockpiles to make up for the loss, Petromatrix said.
– In contrast with the vocal reaction of Iranian lawmakers, the country’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also brushed off the likely impact of the coming EU sanctions, with reports citing him as saying Thursday that "the Iranian nation won’t be hurt."
– Still, the country’s central bank head said Thursday that Iran is devaluing its official currency rate from rials to dollars starting Saturday, possibly acknowledging a drop in the value of the rial on the informal market amid the mounting sanctions.
In televised remarks reported by state news agency IRNA, Mahmoud Bahmani said the rate would be reduced to 12,260 rials from 11,296 rials.
– The rial has dropped sharply against the dollar on the black market in recent weeks as Ira–nians brace for the economic impact of the new sanctions, including the EU oil embargo.
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Wsj 111208
MIDDLE EAST NEWS
DECEMBER 8, 2011, 9:45 P.M. ET
Japan Imposes New Iran Sanctions
By YOREE KOH
– TOKYO—Japan said it will impose a fresh round of financial sanctions against Iran, after steps taken by the U.S., U.K. and the E.U. in recent weeks to intensify the global crackdown on Tehran’s nuclear development program.
But energy-starved Tokyo rejected pressure to curb imports of Iranian oil.
– With the new sanctions, approved by Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s cabinet Friday morning, Japan said it will freeze the assets of an additional 106 organizations, one individual and three banks, widening to more than 350 the circle of Iran-based entities believed to be linked to the country’s nuclear development program and subject to these restrictions.
Masaru Sato, a spokesman for the foreign ministry, said that the latest action has been under review since the International Atomic Energy Agency reported in early November that Iran is building a nuclear bomb and was made "in close coordination with the international community."
– But Japan did nothing to curb Iranian crude oil imports, a step that some Western nations have urged, and would apply more direct pressure on Tehran.
"We would like to be careful in dealing with sanctions against Iran, which produces large amounts of crude oil, taking into consideration possible impacts on crude oil prices and the global economy," Yukio Edano, the minister of economy, trade and industry said Friday morning.
– Iranian crude oil commands a significant chunk of Japan’s energy supply, making up roughly 10% of the country’s intake. Government officials in both the economy and foreign ministries sig-naled a wariness to curb Iranian imports that may further shake Japan’s ability to secure a stable energy supply in the wake of the March 11 disasters that idled many of the country’s nuclear reactors.
– Meanwhile, the E.U. is reviewing a possible Europe-wide ban on Iranian crude shipments.
—Mari Iwata contributed to this article.
