L’esposizione delle banche suscita nella UE preoccupazioni di contagio
● Il rischio di estensione della crisi irlandese all’intera Europa è dato dall’esposizione delle banche europee verso l’Irlanda, con oltre $650MD (dati della Bank of International Settlements – BIS, al 31 marzo 2010),
o in prestiti, obbligazioni statali e altri titoli di debito emessi da società, individui e governi nazionali e locali.
– Le più esposte sono le banche del UK, al primo posto Royal Bank of Scotland PLC – (RBS), tramite la sua filiale irlandese Ulster Bank) con circa $222 MD verso varie istituzioni irlandesi, pari a circa ¼ del totale. Di questi circa $42 MD è in forma di prestito al settore bancario irlandese in crisi.
Seguono a breve distanza le banche tedesche detengono quasi $206 MD, di cui $46MD verso le banche irlandesi.
o Secondo gli analisti l’esposizione totale di RBS è di £54,4 MD, di cui £53,3 MD di esposizione al dettaglio e commerciale, di cui 1/3 in ipoteche residenziali ($9MD, con provvigioni accantonate pari al 40% dei prestiti in sofferenza); RBS ha anche £1MD di esposizione verso il debito sovrano e altro debito del settore investment banking.
o La seconda banca del UK con maggiore esposizione verso l’Irlanda è il gruppo bancario Lloyds, £27MD, di cui £11Md di prestiti in sofferenza del settore immobiliare e delle aziende (£5MD i fondi accantonati per il portafoglio in sofferenza); sarebbe limitata la sua esposizione verso il debito sovrano (Commissione dei supervisori bancari europei – CEBS).
o Le altre maggiori banche britanniche, HSBC Holdings PLC and Barclays PLC, non hanno operazioni significative al dettaglio, minima anche la loro esposizione verso il debito sovrano (dati CEBS)
Banks’ Exposure Stirs EU Contagion Worries
– LONDON—One reason why Ireland’s problems could ripple throughout Europe is that banks across the continent are holding huge quantities of loans, bonds and other debt issued by Irish companies, individuals and national and local governments.
– All told, European banks were sitting on more than $650 billion of exposure to Ireland as of March 31, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
– The U.K. banks are the international lenders with the most at stake. As of March 31, the latest data available, the banks had exposure of about $222 billion to a variety of Irish institutions, according to BIS. That’s about one-fourth of the world’s exposure to Ireland.
o About $42 billion of the U.K. banks’ exposure is in the form of lending to Ireland’s battered banking sector.
– German banks aren’t far behind the U.K. They had a total of almost $206 billion in exposure to Ireland, according to the BIS, including $46 billion of exposure to the country’s banks.
– Among U.K. banks with exposure to Ireland, Royal Bank of Scotland PLC is at the head of the pack, largely through its retail and commercial Irish unit Ulster Bank, but also due to investment-banking holdings of government debt. According to analysts and people close to the bank, RBS’ total exposures to Ireland stand at £54.4 billion, with £53.3 of retail and commercial exposure, a third of which is residential mortgages.
– The bank also has about £1 billion in exposures to Irish sovereign and other debt in its investment-banking trading book.
RBS’s share price slumped Tuesday as EU and Irish officials tussled over a rescue package, closing down 3.45%, at 40.86, on the London Stock Exchange.
– "We believe that these worries are overdone with RBS’s direct exposure to Irish [government] debt at very modest levels and other exposures being actively managed," wrote UBS AG analyst John-Paul Crutchley late last week.
– In a note, he pointed out that RBS’s 9 billion in loans to real estate developers—the sector that suffered most when the real estate boom ended—has provisions set aside on 40% of the souring loans in that portfolio.
– Lloyds Banking Group PLC has the second-largest exposure to Ireland of the U.K. banks. It has £27 billion of Irish loans outstanding, including £11 billion of problem loans, largely related to the property and corporate sectors. As of June 30th, the bank had set aside £5 billion against that troubled portfolio.
– According to the Committee of European Bank Supervisors, which conducted stress tests on all Europe’s banks in July, Lloyds has minimal sovereign exposure. Lloyds said in August it will exit its Irish business given the difficult environment there.
– The other major UK banks, HSBC Holdings PLC and Barclays PLC, don’t have significant retail operations in the country, and their sovereign exposures are also minimal, according to CEBS data and the banks’ disclosures.
It wasn’t immediately clear why the banks’ reported exposures are less than the total UK bank exposure figures reported in March by the BIS, though it could be due to changes in the banks’ holdings since March or different ways of assessing derivatives contracts and guarantees.