Dati Dept. of Commerce e Fed sul 3° trim. 2005:
- crescita PIL 4,3%, profitti in calo –3,7% sul II trim
(effetto Katrina?), ma +9,4% su anno precedente. - Forte andamento consumi famiglie (+4,2% annuo) e
investimenti imprese (+8,8%) ha fatto da traino. - Inflazione al consumo esclusa energia e alimentari
resta bassa (+1,2%), ma vi sono tensioni sui prezzi degli input (ingrosso), che
tendono a trasferirsi sul consumo nella regione del centro-nord Atlantico. - FED ha fatto bene ad aumentare i tassi data la forza
dell’economia, e li aumenterà ancora.
It Keeps Going, and
Going … / Continua ad andare e andare….
Editoriale WSJ, ottimista (come al solito) su economia USA:
- 10° trim consecutivo di crescita PIL, a ritmo medio
vicino al 4%. - Economia USA forte su quasi tutta la linea: ordini di
beni durevoli +10,5% annualizzato [proiezione su base annua della crescita
rispetto al trim precedente –ndr] e +6% annuo, - investimenti privati lordi +5,8%, +12% attrezzature e
software. - Punto debole: export +0,8%,ma dovuto a bassa crescita
mercato EU. - Senza forte crescita import USA e Cina, economia EU
sarebbe moribonda… - I rischi per l’economia mondiale stanno più nella bassa
crescita EU che negli “squilibri” USA. - Riconoscere il merito dei tagli alle tasse di Bush 2003
per la forte crescita USA e mondiale.
Rischi:
1)
inflazione al consumo 3,1%, oro ha toccato i 500$ l’oncia per
la prima volta in 18 anni (investitori scommettono su inflazione futuro). Fed
dovrà continuare a restringere il credito, alzando i tassi.
2) Tentazioni di aumento tasse e protezionismo anti-Cina in
Congresso, il quale non è stato capace di prolungare gli sgravi fiscali su capital gain e dividendi
dal 2008 al 2010
Nota. Rapporto Department of Commerce fornito in
file Pdf a parte, per documentazione.
By JOI PRECIPHS
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
December 1, 2005; Page A2
The U.S. economy continues to show momentum,
growing at a revised 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter, the fastest pace
since the first quarter of 2004. Corporate profits fell, but excluding
the effects of the late-summer Gulf Coast hurricanes, they remained healthy.
The Commerce Department last month had
estimated annual growth of 3.8% in the July-to-September period for gross
domestic product, the broadest measure of U.S. goods and services. Increased consumer
spending on nondurable goods, such as food and clothing, and greater business
spending were behind the upward revision, the department said in a report
released yesterday.
Treasury Secretary John Snow, in a
prepared statement, called the growth "outstanding" and "very
good news for American workers and those seeking jobs." A minimum annual
growth rate of 3% to 3.5% is considered a good sign of prosperity and favorable
for adding new workers to the economy. Although previous third-quarter growth
estimates exceeded those rates, the earlier data also gave off mixed inflation
signals, which caused concern among some analysts.
Inflation indicators in yesterday’s report, though, were revised downward. Consumer
prices excluding food and energy, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation
measure, rose at a 1.2% annual rate, down 0.1 percentage point from the
original estimate. That would be the lowest core-inflation rate in more than
two years.
"There’s no sign here that the
economy is overheating," said Alan Skrainka, chief market strategist
with Edward Jones. "I think the Federal Reserve has done a good job.
By hiking [interest] rates they’ve sort of headed off any inflationary
pressures in the system."
Nevertheless, a roundup of anecdotal reports
for the Fed appeared to reinforce the case for further increases in short-term
rates. Most of the Fed’s 12 regional districts reported
"persistent" input-price pressures and concerns about high energy
prices, and some firms were able to pass on higher costs to consumers, the
Fed’s "beige book," released yesterday, said.
"Most districts reported increasing
input prices, particularly of energy-related products, construction and raw
materials, and transportation," the Fed said. "In response to
higher input prices, some businesses in the New York, Philadelphia and
Richmond Districts were able to pass along a portion of increased costs to
consumers."
The beige book is a summary of economic
activity prepared for use at the central bank’s policy meetings. At its next
meeting Dec. 13, the Fed is likely to raise its target for short-term
interest rates to 4.25% from 4%.
The economy grew at a "solid" pace
or improved in most districts, but conditions were "mixed" in the St.
Louis district, and the economy "grew slowly" in the Philadelphia
district, the Fed said. (Full text3)
In the Commerce Department report, overall
consumer spending increased at a 4.2% annual rate, exceeding the projected
3.9%. Spending on big-ticket items such as refrigerators and cars slowed
slightly. Purchases of nondurable goods surged 3.6%, exceeding the
projected 2.6%. Housing spending came in at 8.4%. Business-investment
spending rose at 8.8%, above the projected 6.2% rate.
Meanwhile, corporate profits after taxes
dropped 3.7% to $938.5 billion in the third quarter, which Bank of America
Senior Economist Peter Kretzmer said was most likely because of losses from
hurricane-related insurance payouts and uninsured expenses. Year-over-year,
however, profits increased 9.4%.
"My suggestion would be that people just
recognize how well the economy is performing," Mr. Skrainka said.
It
Keeps Going, and Going …
December 1, 2005; Page A16
We interrupt your daily doom-and-gloom
programming with a word from the real economy: It’s even better than
advertised. October’s estimate of 3.8% third-quarter GDP growth was revised
upward yesterday to 4.3%, which means the expansion was moving fast enough
in late summer to blow right past Hurricane Katrina.
This represents the fastest expansion
since the first quarter of 2004, as well as the 10th consecutive quarter of
growth averaging close to 4% on an annual basis. So much for those
predictions of recession we heard in the spring, and again in September. In
fact, has there ever been a U.S. expansion this robust that has been
accompanied by so much disbelief and predictions of imminent collapse? Not
since the 1980s, we’d guess.
The third-quarter GDP revisions were
especially notable for showing strength nearly across the board.
Durable-goods orders were particularly strong, increasing at an annual rate of
10.5% and up 6% from the third quarter of 2004. Gross private investment
grew at 5.8%, real equipment and software spending at nearly 12%. In other
words, business investment has been a major growth driver, contrary to the
conventional wisdom that consumers have been sustaining growth only by emptying
their "over-extended" wallets. This bodes well for future growth,
even as the housing market continues to cool.
If there was a third-quarter weak spot, it
was exports, which grew at an annual rate of just 0.8%. But that says more
about the anemia of certain large markets overseas (read: Europe) than
it does about the American economy. Which makes it ironic that the
Paris-based OECD made a point in its report this week to warn about the
"increasing" risks to the global economy caused by American
"imbalances." This is one more warning about the U.S. "twin
deficits," in trade and the budget, neither of which is the world’s
largest economic worry.
The trade deficit results in part from
rapid U.S. growth sucking in goods from around the world. Without exports to
America and a fast-growing China, much of Europe would be moribund. As for budget deficits, we’ve been harder than anyone on
Congressional spendthrifts. But it’d be nice if the OECD conceded that the Bush
tax cuts of 2003 had something to do with the recent American, and global,
boom. Those 10 quarters of 4% growth happened to begin almost precisely at
the time it became clear tax cuts on dividends, capital gains and income were
going to pass the Congress.
None of which is to say that there aren’t risks
on the horizon. The biggest is inflation; the price index for personal
consumption, which is used to adjust the GDP numbers for inflation, was up
3.1% from the third quarter of last year and was running at an annualized
3.6% in the third quarter, according to yesterday’s estimate. The price
of gold also crossed above $500 an ounce Tuesday for the first time in 18 years,
and although it fell back to around $497 an ounce yesterday, it’s still up
substantially in the last year. We think this gold boom represents an
investor bet on future price increases.
The policy risk is that inflation will keep
surprising markets on the high side, and thus the Federal Reserve will have
no choice but to keep tightening credit for longer (and with higher interest
rates) than investors now imagine. We’re not smart enough to know how this
will turn out, but Ben Bernanke and his Fed brethren should be doing a lot of
collar tugging as they watch price signals. They’re the ones who created these
inflation expectations.
The other big danger is policy mistakes
out of Washington. With President Bush’s approval at low tide, all sorts of bad
ideas are on the loose — from "windfall profits" taxes on oil
companies to tariffs against China. The Republican Congress is in such
disarray that it hasn’t been able to extend even for two years — to 2010 from
2008 — the 15% tax rates on capital gains and dividends that have
contributed so much to this expansion. The threat of their expiration will
start to affect business and investment decisions well before the clock strikes
midnight on December 31, 2008, unless Congress acts.
Those risks aside, last quarter’s GDP numbers
show that the U.S. economy can withstand natural disasters, rising interest
rates, $70 oil, $4 gasoline — and the relentless pessimism of elite
forecasters who said today’s prosperity could never happen.