La Turchia manda segnali ambigui sulla Siria
Al-Jazeera Correspondents
– Il governo turco ha approvato (320 a favore su 550) un mandato per operazioni militari contro la Siria, giustificandolo come difesa e deterrenza;
o la decisione è stata presa con la ripresa dei bombardamenti turchi contro le posizioni militari siriane, il 3.ott., in risposta ad un attacco di mortai delle forze siriane contro Idlib, località di frontiera nel S-E Turchia, con 5 vittime turche,
o a fronte di quasi 30 000 vittime della guerra civile in Siria;
o e di 30 000 vittime tra i curdi turchi (compresi quelle cadute in “incidenti operativi”).
o La tensione sul confine turco-siriano si è andata intensificando negli ultimi mesi, con altre scaramucce militari.
– È la maggiore escalation transfrontaliera dei 18 mesi di scontri in Siria.
– Giovedì 4, migliaia di manifestanti nella piazza Taksim a Istanbul contro la guerra, parole d’ordine: “No alla Guerra! Pace subito! Non vogliamo essere soldati degli imperialisti!” (BBC)
– Alcuni striscioni accusavano il partito del primo ministro Erdogan (AKP) di essere un pupazzo degli USA. La polizia ha lanciato lacrimogeni contro i manifestanti.
– Il parlamento turco doveva già votare l’estensione di un’autorizzazione di 5 anni per operazioni militari estere, originalmente per permettere di colpire le basi curde nel Nord Irak.
– La Nato – in riunione di emergenza su richiesta della Turchia, per la seconda volta in 63 anni in base all’art. 4 (un paese membro ritiene minacciata per la propria integrità territoriale, l’indipendenza politica o la sicurezza) – appoggia la Turchia.
– La Turchia ha chiesto all’Onu di agire per fermare l’aggressione siriana;
– la Russia ha chiesto un rinvio delle discussioni ONU; vice ministro Esteri russo: avverte contro la “diplomazia delle bombe”; le tensioni al confine potrebbero fornire “pretesti per interventi militari o iniziative per corridoi o zone cuscinetto.
– Un membro del Consiglio Nazionale Siriano e dell’Esercito Libero Siriano (FSA), Yasser al-Najjar: NO ad un intervento militare occidentale, sì a una “no-fly zone”, che può essere imposta senza intervento militare, ma
o dopo l’appoggio espresso dal capo della Lega Araba, Amr Moussa, ad una no-fly zone sulla Libia, il 12 marzo 2011, ebbe inizio il bombardamento Nato.
o Al-Najjar spera che missili Nato vengano stazionati nel Sud Turchia, per imporre un corridoio umanitario nel Nord Siria;
o non è facile che la Turchia lo consenta.
– Al-Jazeera si chiede se la Siria voglia far entrare nel conflitto la Turchia, e se la Turchia voglia dare il via ad una guerra regionale.
– Negli ultimi anni l’esercito turco ha ripreso gli scontri nella regione con le forze del PKK (Partito dei Lavoratori Curdi);
o il PKK ha ripreso la lotta dopo una sospensione nel 1999- 2004, a causa della perdita delle sue basi in Irak e in parte anche in Siria e le divisioni tra i suoi leader.
o Solo quest’anno sono stati uccisi 700 persone nelle operazioni militari turche di settembre nella regione di confine con Irak e Iran.
o L’intensificazione degli scontri PKK e forze turche deriva da una decisione strategica presa dal siriano Assad, che ha consegnato al PKK e al suo fronte siriano, il Partito dell’Unione Democratica, gran parte del Nord Siria, abitato da curdi.
o Area dove il PKK ha potuto riunirsi in nuove basi, da cui lanciare un grande attacco contro la città di Semdinli. I turchi accusano Assad di fornire armi pesanti al PKK.
o Quando questo conflitto si è aggravato a settembre la giustizia turca ha incarcerato 324 alti ufficiali per aver complottato contro il primo ministro Erdogan. La nuova leadership militare è allineata con Erdogan.
– Durante questi procedimenti giudiziari con le forze turche che sembravano bloccate dal PKK, l’Esercito Libero Siriano spostò la base che aveva in Turchia alla Siria, pronta a combattere Assad sul suo terreno.
– La politica estera del regime Erdogan-Davutoglu oscilla tra la politica di “zero problemi con i vicini” e la politica da grande potenza neo-ottomana:
o il governo turco ha seguito quest’ultima linea quando ha preso una posizione dura contro il regime Assad;
o quando il problema curdo si è ripresentato con forza esso è tornato alla linea “zero problemi”;
o nuovo cambio dopo l’ultimo episodio di attacco siriano.
– Il segnale lanciato dal governo turco è variamente interpretabile:
o accettazione della intensificazione degli scontri militari in Siria, richiesta dall’FSA;
o o tentativo turco di liberarsi dalla sua politica avanzata.
– La riunione del Cairo del Gruppo di Contatto sulla Siria (Egitto, Iran, Arabia Saudita e Turchia), creato dal presidente egiziano Morsi, è stata boicottata dall’Arabia Saudita, senza la quale non ha potuto prendere una posizione utile da portare al CdS ONU.
– Al Cairo gli egiziani hanno proposto 4 principi per il Gruppo di Contatto:
o 1. Cessazione della violenza;
o 2. Rifiuto dell’intervento estero;
o 3. Mantenimento dell’unità del popolo e del territorio siriano;
o 4. mantenimento dell’unità politica.
– Il 4° punto risulta ambiguo data la situazione di guerra civile, e con la Turchia che non crede alla possibilità di unità e che ha chiesto l’allontanamento di Assad.
– Nonostante le divergenze i quattro hanno validi motivi per continuare a far parte del Gruppo di Contatto:
o la Turchia acquista 1/3 del suo petrolio dall’Iran, e intende raddoppiare gli attuali scambi commerciali con esso (€15MD), nonostante le sanzioni UE ed Usa.
o L’offensiva del PKK e le tensioni al confine con la Siria fanno temere alla Turchia di non poter prescindere dai problemi in Siria;
o L’Arabia Saudita ha proposto agli iraniani di non intromettersi nelle questioni della Siria, se questa smette di appoggiare le dimostrazione nell’Est dell’Arabia Saudita;
o è questo il motivo per cui il Qatar ha ripreso a parlare di un intervento arabo in Siria (improbabile dato che le forze armate del Qatar sono costituite per gran parte da Pakistani, e dovrebbe appoggiarsi sul riluttante Egitto per avere uomini).
o L’Iran spera vivamente in una tregua in Siria; quando sembrava che il Gruppo di Contatto rischiasse di non farcela per l’Assemblea Onu, ha proposto al creazione di un nuovo Gruppo per la questione siriana, ma non è facile ci riesca, dato che l’Egitto lo vuole mantenere, e deve comprendere l’Iran, unico paese della regione che ha una credibilità presso Assad (a parte l’Irak).
– Il SI della Turchia ad operazioni militari contro la Siria significano la fine del Gruppo?
– La Nato imporrà una no-fly zone, come richiesto da al-Najjar, e cioè un int4ervento nato nel conflitto siriano?
Attacco con granate – Il parlamento turco approva l’intervento militare in Siria
– Il Parlamento turco ha approvato a porte chiuse, a maggioranza assoluta, la proposta del primo ministro Erdogan che consente al capo del governo di ordinare operazioni militari contro la Siria, per un anno. (lett. “permesso di prendere le misure necessarie “per inviare le forze armate ruche in paesi esteri”)
– Sono continuati gli attacchi delle forze armate turche contro obiettivi siriani, iniziati la notte precedente alla decisione parlamentare; tre decine le vittime.
– Pretesto per la decisione turca l’attacco siriano al villaggio di confine Akcakale, nei pressi del quela c’è il posto di frontiera di Tel Abyad, controllato dall’Esercito Libero Siriano.
– La Nato ha condannato l’attacco di mortai siriano contro la città turca di confine, Akcakale, e chiesto la fine immediata … una dichiarazione dei suoi 28 paesi membri: i recenti indenti sono attacchi del regime siriano contro i confini meridionali della Nato; la Nato è con la Turchia.
– Appoggio alla Turchia anche dai ministri Esteri di GB e Francia.
– Ministro Esteri Usa, Hillary Clinton: sviluppi molto pericolosi; promesso appoggio di Usa a Turchia in particolare nel CdS ONU.
– Il governo tedesco ha reagito con riserbo alle operazioni militari sul confine. Non è chiaro chi in Siria sia stato responsabile dell’inizio degli scontri, se militari del regime, se si sia trattato di un errore, se sia stato uno dei gruppi di opposizione. La Merkel ha condannato gli attacchi siriani, la Germania sta dalla parte della Turchia; ha chiesto maggior moderazione a tutte le parti.
– Il ministro Esteri russo ha chiesto (e sembra ottenuto) ad Assad di dichiarare ufficialmente che l’attacco contro il villaggio di Akcakale è stato un errore, e che non si ripeterà; non ha però segnalato la volontà della Russia di non appoggiare più la Siria. Il ministro dell’Informazione siriano: condoglianze ufficiali per le vittime, ricerca delle cause dell’attacco; la situazione al confine turco-siriano è particolare, dato che vi operano gruppi terroristici, che perseguono diversi obiettivi.
– Il 4 ott. il Fronte al-Nusra, vicino ad al-Qaeda, ha assunto la responsabilità degli attacchi del giorno precedente ad Aleppo.
Il vice-primo ministro turco, Atalay: non è in alcun modo una dichiarazione di guerra alla Siria, si tratta solo di consentire alla Turchia di difendere i propri interessi; la decisione del parlamento ha carattere di deterrenza.
Nach Granatangriff Türkisches Parlament billigt Militäreinsätze in Syrien
– 04.10.2012 · Als Reaktion auf einen tödlichen Granatangriff hat das türkische Parlament Militäreinsätze im Nachbarland Syrien gebilligt. Die türkischen Streitkräfte setzen den Beschuss syrischer Ziele unweit der Grenze fort. Dabei soll es Dutzende Tote gegeben haben.
– Das türkische Parlament hat am Donnerstag in einer geschlossenen Sitzung eine von Ministerpräsident Recep Tayyip Erdogan eingebrachte Vorlage gebilligt, die es dem Regierungschef für die Dauer von zunächst einem Jahr gestattet, Militäreinsätze in Syrien anzuordnen.
– Die Republikanischen Volkspartei (CHP) als größte Oppositionskraft im Parlament kritisierte die Vorlage, da sie „viel zu weit“ gefasst sei. „Damit können sie einen Weltkrieg beginnen“, wurde ein führender CHP-Abgeordneter zitiert.
– Da die von Erdogan geführte Partei für Gerechtigkeit und Entwicklung (AKP) im Parlament jedoch über die absolute Mehrheit der Stimmen verfügt, war die Zustimmung der Volksvertretung schon vor der Abstimmung sicher. Wörtlich ersuchte Erdogan die Abgeordneten um eine Genehmigung, die notwendigen Maßnahmen treffen zu dürfen, „um die türkischen Streitkräfte in ausländische Staaten zu entsenden“.
– Die schon in der Nacht zuvor begonnenen Schläge gegen Stellungen der syrischen Armee wurden auch am Donnerstag fortgesetzt. Die Türkei hatte sich in der Nacht zuvor nach einem Krisentreffen zwischen Erdogan, seinem Stellvertreter Atalay sowie Generalstabschef Özel und Justizminister Ergun zu einem militärischen Schlag gegen Stellungen der regulären syrischen Armee entschlossen.
Dabei wurden bis zum Donnerstagnachmittag nach stark differierenden Angaben bis zu drei Dutzend Personen getötet. Der arabische Sender Al Dschazira meldete unter Berufung auf syrische Quellen, dass 34 Personen als Folge der türkischen Gegenschläge umgekommen seien. Nach anderen Angaben gab es 14 Opfer.
Nato verurteilt Damaskus „aufs Strengste“
– Die Nato verurteilte den Beschuss der türkischen Grenzstadt Akcakale, bei dem Zivilisten getötet wurden, „aufs Strengste“ und verlangte von Syrien „die sofortige Beendigung von solch aggressiven Handlungen gegen einen Verbündeten“. In einer Erklärung aller 28 Mitgliedstaaten hieß es, die jüngsten Zwischenfälle seien Angriffe des syrischen Regimes gegen die Südostgrenze der Nato; der Vorfall vom Mittwoch habe „höchste Sorge“ hervorgerufen, das Bündnis stehe an der Seite der Türkei.
– Die türkische Regierung hatte eine Dringlichkeitssitzung des Nato-Rates einberufen und die anderen Verbündeten um eine solche Erklärung gebeten. Niemand in der Nato wolle ein militärisches Eingreifen in Syrien, hieß es in Brüssel.
Kommentar zu türkisch-syrischem Konflikt: Ein Funke genügt
Türkei-Beschuss bringt neue Eskalation im Syrien-Konflikt
Nato-Rat verurteilt Syrien: Schwerer Beschuss, klare Botschaft
Nach Granatbeschuss: Türkei startet Vergeltungsangriffe auf Ziele in Syrien
Vereinte Nationen bleiben in Syrienfrage zerstritten
Hillary Clinton: „Gefährliche Entwicklung“
– Die amerikanische Außenministerin Hillary Clinton nannte die Entwicklung an der türkisch-syrische Grenze „sehr gefährlich
– “. Die Außenminister Großbritanniens und Frankreichs kündigten ebenfalls eine Unterstützung der Türkei an. „Wir erklären unsere tiefe Solidarität mit der Türkei, aber wir wollen keine weitere Eskalation dieses Vorfalles“, sagte der britische Außenminister Hague. Der französische Außenminister Fabius teilte mit, Frankreich stehe „wie die anderen Alliierten an der Seite der Türkei“.
– Frau Clinton sagte dem Nato-Mitglied Türkei entschiedene Unterstützung insbesondere im Sicherheitsrat der Vereinten Nationen zu.
– Der russische Außenminister Sergej Lawrow ließ jedoch nicht erkennen, dass die Vetomacht Russland von ihrer Unterstützung für das Regime in Damaskus abzurücken gedenke.
– Lawrow forderte das Assad-Regime stattdessen auf, offiziell zu erklären, dass es sich bei dem Beschuss des türkischen Grenzdorfes Akcakale um ein Versehen gehandelt habe. „Über unseren Botschafter in Syrien haben wir mit der syrischen Regierung gesprochen, die uns versichert hat, dass das Geschehen an der Grenze zur Türkei ein tragischer Unfall war und sich nicht wiederholen wird“, wurde Lawrow am Donnerstag von der Nachrichtenagentur Ria Novosti zitiert. Moskau halte es für eine Angelegenheit von „fundamentaler Bedeutung“, dass Damaskus dies auch offiziell mitteile. Der russische Außenminister fügte hinzu, Syrien und die Türkei sollten sich einen Gesprächskanal offen halten, um unter anderem über „Grenzthemen“ sprechen zu können.
Syrisches Regime erklärt „aufrichtigstes Beileid“
– Das Assad-Regime ließ Ankara noch am Mittwoch Beileidsbekundungen übermitteln. Informationsminister Omran al Subi sagte, die zuständigen Behörden seien schon dabei, die Gründe für den Beschuss des türkischen Ortes zu ermitteln. Im Namen der Führung in Damaskus sprach er den Angehörigen der Todesopfer und dem türkischen Volk sein „aufrichtigstes Beileid“ aus. Zugleich rief Subi die Führung in Ankara zur Zurückhaltung auf und forderte einen besseren Schutz der gemeinsamen Grenze.
– Die amtliche Nachrichtenagentur Sana zitierte ihn mit den Worten, bei Grenzzwischenfällen, die bei allen Nachbarländern gelegentlich vorkämen, müssten Regierungen „klug, rational und verantwortungsvoll“ handeln. Zudem sei die Lage im syrisch-türkischen Grenzgebiet besonders, weil dort Terroristengruppen aktiv seien, die alle verschiedene Ziele verfolgten. Die Grenze sei lang und es würden darüber neben Waffen auch Terroristen nach Syrien gebracht, die Anschläge verübten wie jenen am Mittwoch in Aleppo mit Dutzenden Todesopfern.
– Die dem Terrornetz Al Qaida nahestehende Al-Nusra-Front bekannte sich am Donnerstag zu diesen Anschlägen. Subi sagte, Syrien respektiere die Souveränität anderer Staaten und verlange im Gegenzug, dass Terroristen von den Nachbarn daran gehindert würden, über die Grenze nach Syrien zu gelangen.
– Von Oppositionsaktivisten war am Dienstag zu hören, der Beschuss der Grenzstadt sei ein Beweis für die Rücksichtslosigkeit des Assad-Regimes. So etwas habe es in der Vergangenheit an vielen Orten entlang der Grenze gegeben, nur, dass es dieses mal Todesopfer in der Bevölkerung gegeben habe.
– In der Nähe des Grenzorten Akcakale liegt der Grenzübergang Tell Abyad, der von der oppositionellen Freien Syrischen Armee kontrolliert wird.
– Der Vorstoß Erdogans für mögliche künftige Angriffe in Syrien beruft sich auf Artikel 92 der türkischen Verfassung, nach dem es allein dem türkischen Parlament obliegt, eine Kriegserklärung zu billigen. Nur in dringenden Ausnahmefällen darf der türkische Staatspräsident über die Mobilisierung der türkischen Streitkräfte entscheiden. Mehrere Regierungspolitiker sowie ein außenpolitischer Berater Erdogans machten jedoch deutlich, dass es sich bei dem vom Parlament gebilligten Antrag keinesfalls um eine formale Kriegserklärung an Syrien handele. Der stellvertretende Regierungschef Atalay sagte, es gehe nur darum, der Türkei die Wahrung ihrer Interessen zu ermöglichen. Der Entschluss des Parlaments habe „Abschreckungscharakter“.
– Vorrangig bleibe es für die Türkei, in Abstimmung mit der Staatengemeinschaft zu handeln. Atalay hob außerdem hervor, dass sich „die syrische Seite“ für den Vorfall entschuldigt habe. Ein Berater Erdogans teilte mit: „Die Türkei hat kein Interesse an einem Krieg gegen Syrien. Aber die Türkei ist in der Lage, ihre Grenzen zu schützen und wird zurückschlagen, falls erforderlich. Die Türkei hat den gestrigen Vorfall ohne eine Kriegserklärung an Syrien vergolten. Politische und diplomatische Initiativen werden fortgesetzt.“
– Während der Abstimmung in der türkischen Volksversammlung ging die Polizei vor dem Parlamentsgebäude mit Tränengas gegen Demonstranten vor, die gegen einen Militäreinsatz in Syrien protestierten. In dem vom Parlament gebilligten Text heißt es, die „negative Wirkung“ der „andauernden Krise“ in Syrien auf die nationale Sicherheit der Türkei sowie die regionale Stabilität werde immer deutlicher.
– Trotz wiederholter Warnungen und diplomatischer Initiativen der Türkei haben die regulären syrischen Truppen „aggressive Handlungen“ gegen das Territorium der Türkei gerichtet, heißt es in der Vorlage. Diese grenzten an einen bewaffnetetn Angriff. Die Entwicklung habe eine Phase erreicht, die „ernsthafte Bedrohungen und Risiken“ für die Sicherheitslage der Türkei bedeute, weshalb schnell gehandelt werden müsse. Es gehe darum, sich gegen zusätzliche Risiken zu wappnen, denen die Türkei sich ausgesetzt sehen könnte. Ähnliche Einsätze außerhalb der eigenen Grenzen nimmt die Armee bereits seit langem regelmäßig im Nordirak vor, wo sie Stellungen der kurdischen Terrororganisation PKK bombardiert.
– Die Entscheidung der Regierung Erdogan zu einem bewaffneten Gegenschlag gegen syrische Stellungen ist nach Darstellung türkischer Kommentatoren auch im Lichte früherer Grenzzwischenfälle zu sehen, nach denen türkische Politiker jeweils „letzte Warnungen“ ausgesprochen hatten. Nach dem Vorfall vom Mittwoch in Akcakale habe die Regierung daher handeln müssen. Schon Mitte September waren bei Kämpfen zwischen syrischer Regierungstruppen mit Freischärlern der Freien Syrischen Armee in Grenznähe mehrere Personen in Akcakale verletzt worden.
Kanzlerin Merkel ruft zur Besonnenheit auf
– Die Bundesregierung reagierte mit Zurückhaltung auf die Militäraktionen an der türkisch-syrischen Grenze. Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel verurteilte die syrischen Angriffe „aufs Schärfste“. Sie fügte an: „Wir rufen gleichzeitig alle Beteiligten zu großer Besonnenheit auf.“ Frau Merkel versicherte, eine „Verurteilung Syriens“ sei für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland „völlig klar“.
– Deutschland stehe an der Seite der Türkei. In der Bundesregierung hieß es, es sei derzeit unklar, wer auf Seiten Syriens für den Beginn der Kampfhandlungen verantwortlich gewesen sei. Es sei nicht bekannt, ob Soldaten des Assad-Regimes einen gezielten Angriff unternommen hätten, ob es sich um ein „Versehen“ gehandelt habe oder ob es eine der verschiedenen Oppositionsgruppen der Verursacher der Angriffe gewesen seien.
Angriff auf Elitesoldaten Assads
– In dem Ort Qudsaya westlich der Hauptstadt Damaskus ist es offenbar nach einem Sprengstoffanschlag gegen Elite-Truppen des Assad-Regimes und Gefechten zu einer größeren Offensive der Armee gekommen. Nach Angaben von Aktivisten der Opposition wurden dabei mindestens 25 Soldaten aus der Republikanischen Garde getötet. Demnach liegt nahe Qudsayas auf einem Hügel eine Wohnanlage der Elitetruppen des Regimes. Der Sprengsatz sei an einer Straße in der Nähe der Wohnsiedlung gezündet worden.
Oppositionelle teilten mit, Qudsaya sei danach mit Artillerie beschossen worden, das Regime sei auch mit Panzern vorgerückt. Die staatliche Zeitung „Al Baath“ hatte unlängst verkündet, die Militäroperationen zur Sicherung der Provinz Damaskus könnten bald abgeschlossen werden.
Quelle: FAZ.NET mit tens./nbu./cheh./ban.
Turkey sends mixed signals over Syria
By Al-Jazeera Correspondents
DOHA – Turkey’s parliament on Thursday authorized cross-border military action against Syria, if deemed necessary by the government. The mandate, valid for one year, was passed by 320 votes in the 550-seat Turkish parliament, the Anatolia news agency reported on Thursday.
Besir Atalay, one of Turkey’s deputy prime ministers, said authorizing the use of force in Syria was not a declaration of war but was intended as a deterrent.
– The vote came as Turkey resumed shelling Syrian government military positions on Thursday morning in retaliation for a mortar attack which landed over its border in southeastern Turkey killing five of its citizens – a woman and four children from the same family.
– "The Syrian side has admitted what it did and apologized," Atalay said.
Turkish state media said that the attacks by artillery units based in the border town of Akcakale were continuing.
– Several Syrian troops were killed as a result of overnight Turkish shelling at a base near the Syrian border town of Tal al-Abyad, a UK-based Syrian activist group said.
– However, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the authorization was purely deterrence and that his country had no intention of declaring war on Syria, pointing out that the shelling – now in its second day – should be seen as a "warning" to the authorities in Damascus.
"We want peace and security and nothing else. We could never be interested in something like starting a war," Erdogan said at a news conference in Akcakale on Thursday evening.
"The Turkish Republic is a state capable of defending its citizens and borders. Nobody should try and test our determination on this subject."
– Thousands of people gathered in Istanbul’s Taksim Square on Thursday for an anti-war rally. Demonstrators chanted: "No to war! Peace now! We won’t be soldiers of imperialists!" reported the BBC. Some banners accused Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) of being a stooge of the US.
– The parliament had already been due to vote on Thursday on extending a five-year-old authorization for foreign military operations, an agreement originally intended to allow strikes on Kurdish bases in northern Iraq.
The memorandum signed by Erdogan and sent to parliament overnight said that despite repeated warnings and diplomatic initiatives, the Syrian military had launched aggressive action against Turkish territory, presenting "additional risks".
"This situation has reached a level of creating a serious threat and risks to our national security. At this point the need has emerged to take the necessary measures to act promptly and swiftly against additional risks and threats," it said.
– In the most serious cross-border escalation of the 18-month uprising in Syria, Turkey hit back after what it called "the last straw" when a mortar hit a residential neighborhood of the southern border town of Akcakale on Wednesday.
– Security sources said the mortar had come from near Tal al-Abyad and that Turkey was increasing the number of troops along its border.
"Our armed forces in the border region responded immediately to this abominable attack in line with their rules of engagement; targets were struck through artillery fire against places in Syria identified by radar," Erdogan’s office said in a statement late on Wednesday.
"Turkey will never leave unanswered such kinds of provocation by the Syrian regime against our national security."
– Syria said it was investigating the source of the mortar bomb and urged restraint. Information Minister Omran Zoabi conveyed his condolences to the Turkish people, saying his country respected the sovereignty of neighboring countries.
Following the attack, Bulent Arinc, another deputy prime minister, said Turkey was "not blinded by rage".
"There is definitely a response to it (the attack) in international law … We are not blinded by rage, but we will protect our rights to the end in the face of such an attack on our soil that killed our people."
– Al Jazeera’s Andrew Simmons, reporting from Antakya on the Turkish-Syrian border, said Arinc’s mention of "certain responsibilities" contained within NATO treaty articles could mean that Turkey responded without consulting international bodies first.
– NATO said it stood by member-nation Turkey and urged Syria to put an end to "flagrant violations of international law".
– Al Jazeera’s Anita McNaught, reporting from Akcakale, said that one has to ask the question of whether Syria "would want to draw Turkey into the conflict, and would Turkey want this to be the start of a larger and widening escalation of the battle regionally".
The US-led Western military alliance held an urgent late night meeting in Brussels to discuss the matter.
– That meeting was only the second time in NATO’s 63-year history that members had convened under Article 4 of its charter, which provides for consultations when a member state feels its territorial integrity, political independence or security is under threat.
– Turkey also asked the UN Security Council to take the "necessary action" to stop Syrian "aggression".
In a letter to the president of the 15-nation Security Council, Ertugrul Apakan, Turkey’s UN ambassador, called the firing of the mortar bomb "a breach of international peace and security".
UN diplomats said Security Council members hoped it would issue a non-binding statement on Thursday that would condemn the mortar attack "in the strongest terms" and demand an end to violations of Turkey’s territorial sovereignty.
– Members had hoped to issue the statement on Wednesday, but Russia – a staunch ally of Syria, which along with China has vetoed three UN resolutions condemning President Bashar al-Assad’s government – asked for a delay, diplomats said.
What will Ankara do?
Vijay Prashad
– Death has escaped from Syria. The numbers within its borders have climbed to near 30,000. But over the past few months, death has scaled the borders into Lebanon, threatening, as the Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati put it, to "drown" the country in its neighbor’s flood. Turkey has not been immune from the escalating violence either.
– Syrian refugee camps have been targeted by the Syrian government’s forces, and yesterday a mortar attack into the Turkish town of Akcakale killed at least five people and wounded eight.
– These numbers are miniscule compared to the dead Syrians, and to the dead Turkish Kurds (30,000 killed, including in "operational accidents").
Nevertheless, they have set Turkey on edge. The government has begun to clear camps on the border, and Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said, "No one should doubt Turkey’s defense capabilities."
– Turkey retaliated with artillery fire toward the Syrian city of Idlib. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) went into a huddle as did the UN Security Council. Whether this will escalate is to be seen. NATO’s statement stayed with a call for consultation (article 4 of its Charter) and not with a call to arms (article 5). This indicates that there will be no escalation at this time.
– Tension along the Syrian-Turkish border had intensified over the past month. This is not the first mortar attack on Akcakale. After a September 28 strike, Turkey sent a diplomatic note to Damascus. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov warned against "bomb diplomacy". Tensions on the border, he noted, might provide "pretexts for carrying out a military scenario or to introduce initiatives such as humanitarian corridors or buffer zones". Turkey had restrained itself after Syrian government forces shot down a Turkish F-4 Phantom in June of this year. The Syrians claimed that the F-4 had flown at "very low altitude and at high speed" into its territorial waters near Latakia. At that time, Turkey did not respond with force.
– Yasser al-Najjar, a member of the Syrian National Council and the Free Syrian Army (FSA), recently told journalist Lina Attalah in Cairo that the FSA opposes any military intervention by the West, but believes that a "no-fly zone can happen without intervention".
o This is precisely what the then Arab League head Amr Moussa believed when he endorsed a no-fly zone over Libya on March 12, 2011. Eight days later, after the NATO bombardment began, Moussa said, "What is happening in Libya differs from the aim of imposing a no-fly zone. And what we want is the protection of civilians and not the shelling of more civilians."
o It is not clear if what al-Najjar wants can be so easily accomplished without a Libya-type intervention. One of his hopes was for NATO missiles to be stationed in Turkey to "protect 30 to 40 kilometers southward."
– It is unlikely that Turkey will allow NATO missiles to be stationed in its southern districts to enforce a humanitarian corridor in northern Syria.
– Over the course of the past few years, the Turkish army has re-engaged the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) forces in the region. After a short hiatus between 1999 and 2004, sections of the PKK restarted its war, pushing out of its redoubts in small guerrilla bands to strike at guard posts and to conduct acts of urban terror (including a 2007 bombing in Ankara).
– Loss of its bases in Iraq and to some extent in Syria and divides among the PKK leadership prevented the kind of frontal assaults that had wracked the 1990s. Over seven hundred people have been killed this year alone, with the Turkish army in operations over the course of September in the mountainous border region that links it to Iraq and Iran.
– The reason for the intensified battle between the PKK and the Turkish military lies in a strategic decision by Syria’s Assad.
o This summer, he handed over much of northern Syria, which is demographically Kurdish, to the PKK and its Syrian front, the Party of the Democratic Union.
o These new base areas allowed the PKK to regroup
o and begin a major assault on the town of Semdinli (the Turks accuse Assad’s regime of giving the PKK heavy armaments, including rocket launchers and heavy caliber machine guns).
– As this armed conflict stepped up in September, the Turkish judiciary convicted 324 senior army officials for a plot to overthrow Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2003. Among those convicted were Ibrahim Firtina (Air Force head), Ozden Ornek (Navy chief) and Engin Alan (who had helped capture and transport PKK head Abdullah Ocalan from Kenya). The new military leadership is aligned with the Erdogan government and is nonplussed by these verdicts.
– During these court proceedings and as the Turkish army seemed tied down by the PKK, the Free Syrian Army moved its base in Turkey’s Hatay province into Syria. The tone of the FSA was that it was now ready to take the fight to the Assad regime on its own soil.
o The Turkish government’s signal can be read in many ways: either they accept the FSA’s view that it must intensify its campaign inside Syria,
o or that the Turkish government is trying to find a way to extricate itself from its forward policy.
– Turkish foreign policy under the Erdogan-Davutoglu regime oscillates between the politics of "zero problems with neighbors" and a neo-Ottoman big power (buyuk devlet) politics.
o It was the latter that moved Erdogan-Davutoglu to take a strong position against the Assad regime,
o and as the Kurdish problem has raised its head, it is the former to which they seem to have returned. The mortar attack of October 3 and the Turkish retaliation change the situation somewhat.
– Set up by Egypt’s President Mohammed Morsi, the Syria Contact Group was to have met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York last week. The point of the meeting was to produce a pathway to end the bloodshed in Syria. The Group’s members (Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey) had pledged to have their foreign ministers meet in Cairo before the UN meet, and then send their heads of government to hash out some kind of document in New York. The Saudi Foreign Minister skipped the Cairo meeting; it was said that he was ill ("The Mystery of the Syria Contact Group," Asia Times Online, September 22). The other foreign ministers continued with the meeting, except that without Saudi Arabia things remained in stasis.
– In Cairo, the Egyptians unveiled the four principles for the Contact Group’s approach to Syria: 1. Cease Violence. 2. Reject Foreign Intervention. 3. Preserve the Unity of the Syrian People and Land. 4. Maintain Political Unity. The first three points are self-explanatory, and were accepted by the Iranians and the Turks. The fourth point is much more ambiguous – how can political unity be maintained if the country is in a civil war. Turkey was not convinced of the possibility of unity; it has called for the ouster of Bashar al-Assad and his clique, which means that it does not see them as party to a future Syria. Nevertheless, Turkey’s Davutoglu did not indicate that his government would leave the Contact Group because of this disagreement.
– Neither Saudi Arabia nor Turkey has been a willing partner in the Contact Group. Both have missed meetings, and both have been reluctant to adopt the four principles laid out by Morsi. Nonetheless, all four countries have good reasons to be in the Group.
o Turkey buys a third of its oil from Iran and proposes to double its current $15 billion trade with that country despite the US and European sanctions.
o The PKK offensive and the tension on the Syrian-Turkey border heighten the fears that Turkey will not be able to insulate its own problems from the vortex of Syria.
o Saudi Arabia, as I reported earlier, had insinuated a deal with the Iranians for the former to back off from Syria if the latter close down its support for the demonstrations in eastern Saudi Arabia.
– This is why it is Qatar once more that has made noises about an Arab intervention in Syria (this is unlikely to materialize since Qatar’s military is largely staffed by Pakistanis and it would rely upon a reluctant Egypt to provide the bodies for the actual force).
– Iran is desperate for a ceasefire in Syria. When the Contact Group seemed on life support in New York, Iran’s President Ahmadinejad suggested that he was forming a new Group to deal with the Syrian problem. This is unlikely to materialize. Egypt is still keen on the Group, and it requires Iran in it since Tehran is the only regional capital with credibility with Assad (apart from Baghdad).
Did the Contact Group die at Akcakale? Will NATO emerge from its huddle and provide the "no-fly zone" that al-Najjar asks for, which is tantamount to a NATO intervention into the Syrian conflict?
Vijay Prashad’s latest book is Arab Spring, Libyan Winter (AK Press), whose Turkish edition, Arap Bahari, Libya Kisi is available from Yordam Kitap.
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