Egitto, Rivolte, sconvolgimenti regionali
– Per lo più positive le reazioni dei paesi del Golfo; grande perdente è il Qatar che ha appoggiato il governo Morsi con molti miliardi di $.
– Unità delle forze di sicurezza egiziane hanno assalito gli studi dell’emittente del Qatar al-Jazeera.
– Arabia Saudita e Emirati Arabi Uniti (il particolare il maggiore di essi, Abu Dhabi) sono i primi paesi ad aver accolto positivamente il rovesciamento le governo egiziano di Morsi e dei Fratelli Musulmani.
– Il giorno stesso dell’abbattimento di Morsi, negli Emirati è terminato con severe condanne di detenzione un processo (definito iniquo da HRW) contro 94 dissidenti appartenenti al movimento “islah” (Riforma), considerati una propaggine dei FM nelgi EAU.
– Abu Dhabi nel febbraio 2011offrì asilo a Mubarak, che però non accettò; vi si è rifugiato l’ultimo primo ministro di Mubara, Ahmad Shafiq, dopo la sconfitta alla presidenziali del giugno 2012.
– Dalla loro fondazione nel 1971 le relazioni tra EAU ed Egitto sono sempre state strette; l’apparato di sicurezza egiziano ha addestrato quello degli EAU.
– I FM hanno tentato più volte, senza successo, di conquistarsi la fiducia negli Emirati.
– Gli Emirati hanno utilizzato i canali già esistenti e Shafik per influire sugli sviluppi egiziani:
– oltre Shafiq circa 300 alti ufficiali della sicurezza egiziana si sono stabiliti ad Abu Dhabi;
– da due anni i leader dell’opposizione egiziana si recano regolarmente ad Abu Dhabi.
– Ognuno degli alti ufficiali dei servizi egiziani comanda una truppa d‘assalto di 50 giovani, che finanzia e usa per i propri fini; ricevono fino a circa €50 per missione.
– Il denaro che serve per le bande dei 300 ufficiali che si sono stabiliti negli EAU e dei loro colleghi in Egitto, come pure per le manifestazioni proverrebbe, come denunciano da oltre un anno i FM, dalla famiglia regnante di Abu Dhabi.
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– Dai segnali della scorsa settimana il putsch in Egitto rappresenta probabilmente l’inizio di un sommovimento tettonico che sta per verificarsi.
– Il conflitto che si prefigura in Egitto e l’evolversi della situazione in Siria potrebbero essere tra loro correlate.
– Arabia Saudita, Israele e Russia mostrano posizioni sempre più simili sull’Egitto, sperano che il putsch militare contribuisca a stabilizzare la situazione. Il nuovo modello di schieramenti regionali, coinvolgente Israele e Siria, vedrebbe come azionisti USA e Russia, cosa finora impensabile.
– La vittoria alle presidenziali iraniane di Rouhani e la previsione di un disgelo tra sauditi e iraniani fanno da sfondo alla coincidenza dei cambiamenti ai vertici del partito Baath al potere in Siria e ai vertici della Coalizione Nazionale Siriana.
– Questi cambiamenti rappresentano l’ascesa dell’influenza saudita in Siria come pure in Egitto, appoggiata dagli USA, e l’eclissi dell’asse Qatar-Turchia; i Fratelli Musulmani perdono influenza nel Consiglio Nazionale Siriano.
– La giustificazione ideologica (espressa nel messaggio del Ramadan di re saudita Abdullah) è l’approccio centrista e moderato dell’islamismo saudita contro l’estremismo, messaggio rivolto ai Fratelli musulmani in Siria e in Egitto, e ai loro sostenitori Qatar e Turchia, e che non dispiace al siriano Assad.
– Visti i movimenti politici in atto nella regione, la Russia ha risposto con un approccio da real politik: non ha perso tempo a aprire alla giunta militare egiziana, auspicando il dialogo proprio mentre era in corso una violenta repressione contro i Fratelli musulmani, e la continuazione delle relazioni economiche.
– A posteriori, la visita il 25 giugno del segretario di Stato americano, John Kerry, in Arabia Saudita rivela che il putsch egiziano era già in corso a fine giugno, e che gli Usa stavano già discutendo con i militari la transizione politica.
– L’appoggio ai militari egiziani espresso da Usa e i loro alleati del Golfo fornisce il sostegno politico alla brutale repressione contro i FM, repressione che ha ripercussioni per la “primavera araba” nel suo insieme.
– già il 2 luglio, Arabia Saudita e Emirati hanno annunciato il pacchetto di aiuti da $8MD all’Egitto;
– gli Usa si sono affrettati a comunicare la fornitura dei caccia F-16 ai militari egiziani a riprova che, al di là del dibattitto se si trattasse o meno di un putsch, non avevano alcuna intenzione di sospendere il sostegno militare all’Egitto.
– L’apertura della Russia alla giunta militare rientra nella sua strategia verso la Siria.
– Israele – Usa consenzienti – apre alla mediazione russa nel Golan:dall’incontro tra il ministro Esteri russo e quello della Giustizia israeliano (riferito da Asarq Al-Awsat, giornale dell’establishment saudita) sarebbe emersa la disponibilità di Israele allo stanziamento di soldati russi, sotto bandiera Onu, nel Golan, a patto che la Russia interrompa la fornitura di missili anti-arei S-300 alla Siria.
– Qatar, Turchia e Iran – profondamente coinvolti anche nella questione siriana – sono più isolati nella regione, dato i militari egiziani non ne gradiscono l’ingerenza nelle questioni interne egiziane.
– In previsione della necessità di una prossima mediazione politica anche a fronte dello stallo militare, Assad ha prontamente acclamato il rovesciamento del governo egiziano, e rafforzato al contempo il proprio controllo sul partito Baath, sostituendone tutti i 16 dirigenti, in carica dal 2005, e rimpiazzandoli con una leva di giovani – tra essi alcuni ex diplomatici, come il portavoce del parlamento e il primo ministro.
La purga del partito Baath è coincisa con il cambio al vertice del CNS, alla cui presidenza è stato nominato Ahmad Jarba, capo tribale con mentalità laica, voluto da americani e sauditi; si è dimesso il primo ministro ad interim del CNS, Ghassan Hitto, un uomo d’affari che vive in America, nominato a marzo con il sostegno di Qatar, Turchia e Usa.
Umsturz in Ägypten -Aufatmen am Golf
04.07.2013 · Die Reaktionen der arabischen Länder auf den Putsch in Kairo sind überwiegend positiv. Großer Verlierer ist Qatar, das die Mursi-Regierung mit mehreren Milliarden Dollar unterstützte.
Von Rainer Hermann
– Ein Zufall war es nicht, dass der erste Glückwunsch an Ägyptens neues Staatsoberhaupt Adli Mansour aus den Golfstaaten kam. Der saudische König Abdullah gratulierte dem vom Militär eingesetzten Übergangspräsidenten, bevor dieser überhaupt vereidigt wurde, und wünschte ihm Erfolg. Die saudische Königsfamilie hatte nie einen Hehl daraus gemacht, dass sie die Ideologie der Muslimbrüder, die den einzelnen Gläubigen mit der Politik verbindet, als die größte Herausforderung für ihre Herrschaftsform sieht.
– Auch die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate haben aufgeatmet. Dort heißt es seit Jahren, die Muslimbrüder seien die größte Gefahr für das Land, größer selbst als das iranische Atomprogramm.
– Am Tag vor Muhammad Mursis Sturz endete der erste Massenprozess in der Geschichte der Emirate: 94 Dissidenten wurden nach einem Prozess, den die Menschenrechtsorganisation Human Rights Watch als „fundamental unfair“ bezeichnet, zu langjährigen Haftstrafen verurteilt. Die Verurteilten gehören der Bewegung „Islah“ (Reform) an, die als emiratischer Ableger der Muslimbruderschaft gilt.
– Die Emirate haben mit großem Argwohn auf die kurze Herrschaft der Muslimbrüder in Ägypten geblickt. Das größte Emirat, Abu Dhabi, hatte im Februar 2011 dem gestürzten Husni Mubarak Asyl angeboten, was dieser nicht wahrnahm. Mubaraks letzter Ministerpräsident Ahmad Schafiq zog sich nach seiner Niederlage in der Präsidentenwahl vom Juni 2012 gegen Mursi nach Abu Dhabi zurück, wo er seither in einem Luxushotel am Rande der Stadt residiert.
– Die Beziehungen zwischen der 1971 gegründeten Föderation der Emirate und Ägypten waren immer sehr eng; so baute der ägyptische Sicherheitsapparat den der Emirate auf.
Qatar hatte Milliarden überweisen
– Die ägyptischen Muslimbrüder schickten wiederholt Emissäre in die Emirate, um das Misstrauen zu zerstreuen und um zu beteuern, dass die Bewegung „Islah“ nicht aus Ägypten gesteuert werde. Alle Gespräche scheiterten.
– Die Emiratis griffen jedoch auf die bestehenden Kanäle und auf Schafiq zurück, um auf die Entwicklung in Ägypten Einfluss zu nehmen.
– Neben Schafiq ließen sich etwa 300 ranghohe Offiziere der ägyptischen „Staatssicherheit“ in Abu Dhabi und Dubai nieder; die führenden Oppositionspolitiker Ägyptens besuchen seit zwei Jahren regelmäßig Abu Dhabi.
– Traditionell führt in Ägypten jeder höhere Offizier der Sicherheitsdienste eine Schlägertruppe von meist 50 Jugendlichen, die er finanziert und für seine Zwecke einsetzt. In der Vergangenheit dienten die Gruppen der Einschüchterung von Personen, die gefügig gemacht werden sollten. Seit Mubaraks Sturz aber haben sie Unsicherheit zu verbreiten und bei Demonstrationen für Gewalt zu sorgen. Als Gehalt bekommen sie pro Einsatz umgerechnet bis zu 50 Euro.
– Seit mehr als einem Jahr klagen die ägyptischen Muslimbrüder, dass das Geld für die Banden der 300 in den Emiraten ansässigen ägyptischen Offiziere, aber auch die Banden von deren Kollegen in Ägypten sowie für Demonstrationen von Mitgliedern der Herrscherfamilie in Abu Dhabi stamme.
– Verlierer der Entwicklung ist Qatar, das die Muslimbruderschaft offen unterstützt hatte. Qatar hatte als einziges arabisches Land Mursis Kairo Mittel in Höhe von mehreren Milliarden Dollar nicht nur versprochen, sondern auch überwiesen.
– Am Donnerstag stürmten Einheiten der ägyptischen „Staatssicherheit“ die Studios des qatarischen Senders Al Dschazira in Kairo.
Egypt’s Sphinx casts eyes on Syria
By M K Bhadrakumar
– It looks increasingly that solving the Egyptian puzzle is going to take us all to Syria. How far the army’s coup in Egypt resets the geopolitics of the Middle East, or, conversely, whether the coup itself forms the commencement of a region-wide tectonic shift that is going to play out over time – this is the big question.
The cascading events this week indicate that the latter could well be the case. To be sure, even by the standards of the Middle East, the past week has been an extraordinary one.
– There has been a strong expression of support from the United States and its Persian Gulf allies to the Egyptian military, which in turn is providing the political underpinning for a brutal crackdown by the junta on the Muslim Brotherhood, which has implications for the "Arab Spring" as a whole.
– Russia’s overture to the junta at such a point may come as quite a surprise but it is integral to the Russian strategy in Syria and the Russian skepticism of the "Arab Spring".
– The isolation of Qatar, Turkey and Iran on the regional chessboard has accentuated through the past week with the junta in Cairo ticking off these countries for their pretensions of being arbiters or opinion-makers in Egypt’s internal affairs. It so happens that these three countries have been deeply involved in the Syrian situation as well.
– Meanwhile, Israel’s openness to accept Russian peacekeepers on the Golan Heights could not have surged to the surface this week without US acquiescence – or even approval – and the timing of the leadership changes both in Syria’s ruling Ba’ath Party and the Syrian National Coalition could be more than a coincidence.
– There is a background to all this, lest it be forgotten amidst the cacophony of the coup in Egypt – Hassan Rouhani’s thumping victory in the Iranian presidential election and the promise of an impending thaw in the Saudi-Iranian relationship.
A seminal event
– If a seminal event is to be identified in this torrential flow of events in regional politics, it must be the visit by the US Secretary of State John Kerry to Saudi Arabia on June 25, which was embedded within a regional tour of the Middle East and was a diplomatic initiative on Syria.
– In hindsight it becomes apparent now that the slow-motion coup in Egypt was well under way by that time in end-June and the US was already in deep consultation with the military leadership in Cairo regarding a political transition in Egypt. Without doubt, Kerry’s talks with the Saudi leaders couldn’t have ignored the gathering storms in Egypt.
– In the event, of course, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah became the first world leader to felicitate the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood government on July 2 – within hours of the coup unfolding – as if Riyadh had it all worked out in anticipation.
Again, the alacrity with which Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates simultaneously announced on Wednesday a US$8 billion aid package for Egypt suggests that a blueprint was already prepared in consultation with the US.
– Washington leaked to the press immediately thereafter that it too was going ahead with a planned supply of F-16 fighter aircraft to the Egyptian military, which means that despite the Obama administration’s posturing of prevarication, suspending military aid to Egypt is the last thing on its mind.
– Curiously, another regional leader who promptly welcomed – alongside King Abdullah – the ouster of the Brotherhood from power in Egypt has been Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
– This wasn’t an isolated act, either. On Monday, Assad announced the replacement of the entire Ba’ath leadership, with all 16 members who have been in the high command since 2005, making way for new blood.
– A younger generation of leaders, including former diplomats, has been brought in as replacements. Parliament speaker Jihad al-Laham and Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi are among them.
In an interview with the Ba’ath party’s mouthpiece, Assad sought to explain that the leaders were removed from the high command because they made mistakes while in office. "When a leader does not solve a series of errors, this leader must be held accountable," he said without elaborating. Of course, Assad continues as the party’s secretary-general, being the only top leader who didn’t make any mistakes.
– In the same interview with the Ba’ath party’s organ, Assad also renewed his criticism of the Muslim Brotherhood, saying it "takes advantage of religion and uses it as a mask … and it thinks that if you don’t agree with it politically, that means you don’t stand by God."
– Assad strives to convey the message to the people that he is responsive to their grievances over social problems such as inflation and worsening public security. But the fact remains that he is strengthening his control of the ruling party at a time when the Syrian situation is evolving in political terms, given the military stalemate, and all protagonists – Syrian as well as outside powers – anticipate the inevitability of a political dialogue in the next several months.
– Equally, what needs to be noted is that the Ba’ath Party purge coincides with a change of leadership of the opposition Syrian National Coalition (SNC). New SNC president Ahmad Jarba is a Saudi-US nominee and has the reputation of being a "secular-minded" tribal leader.
– Following Jarba’s election, Ghassan Hitto, the prime minister and a businessman from America, who had enjoyed the backing of Qatar, Turkey and the US when he was appointed in last March, submitted his resignation.
– In essence, the changes in the SNC signify – like in Egypt – an ascendancy of Saudi influence and the eclipse of the Qatari-Turkish axis. The Brotherhood’s clout within the SNC has also suffered a setback.
– Evidently, the US is backing the ascendancy of Saudi influence within the SNC – as is happening in Egypt.
Demise of Islamism
– What is the Saudi-US game plan? Going by the Ramadan message by the Saudi King and the Crown Prince on Wednesday, Saudi Arabia "will not allow religion to be exploited by extremists who only work for their personal interests, and who harm the reputation of Islam." The message said Saudi Arabia will "with God’s help, remain the defenders of Islam … and continue on our centrist, moderate approach."
– Evidently, these are barbs aimed at the Muslim Brotherhood in the prevailing context of both Egypt and Syria, and the movement’s principal backers in the region; namely, Qatar and Turkey.
– On the other hand, Assad would find the Saudi King’s Ramadan message quite agreeable. He cannot but share the Saudi perspective (which the US and Russia also share) that the specter of radical Islamists haunting his country’s destiny is the core issue today.
– Without doubt, these cross currents in regional politics have not gone unnoticed in Moscow, and they have prompted the Kremlin to lose no more time in making an overture to the Egyptian junta. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Thursday,
We hope that all initiatives [by the junta], which are designed to launch the national dialogue, to stabilize the situation and hold free elections, will be successful.
– Lavrov simply ignored that he was speaking while a violent crackdown on the Brotherhood by the Egyptian military was underway. He went on to propose that it could be business as usual between Russia and Egypt and, furthermore, that Russia’s priority lies in the impact of the developments in Egypt on regional stability and the politics of the Islamic world. Lavrov said,
As for cooperation projects [with Egypt], these projects are aimed at developing cooperation between the countries and peoples. Their implementation will benefit both the countries and the peoples.
We [Russia] want stability to be ensured in Egypt and in the entire region, which creates serious risks for international relations. Egypt is the region’s key country. The development of events in the region and in the Islamic world will depend on the situation in Egypt.
– This is realpolitik at its best. Simply put, without drawing allegations of interfering in Egypt’s internal affairs, Lavrov has let it be known to the new leadership in Cairo, and an array of regional states – Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Turkey and Israel, in particular – and the "international community" as a whole that Russia is far from displeased with the turn of events in Egypt and its likely repercussions for regional security and stability.
– Conceivably, Moscow, which never gave up its deep-rooted suspicions of the Muslim Brotherhood, may be feeling the winds of change to be quite conducive to the pursuit of its own interests and in harmony with its own assessments of the "Arab Spring".
– Meanwhile, the Saudi establishment daily Asarq Al-Awsat reported on Wednesday that there has been a meeting between Lavrov and Israel’s Justice Minister Tzipi Livni during which the latter indicated that Israel may allow Russian peacekeeping soldiers under the United Nations flag on the Golan Heights provided Moscow halted the transfer of advanced S-300 antiaircraft missiles to Syria.
President Vladimir Putin had proposed last month that Russia is ready to replace the 380-strong Austrian contingent in the 1,100-strong UN Disengagement Observer Force in Golan.
– Neither Moscow nor Tel Aviv has contradicted the Saudi daily’s report. If it is true, as seems likely, it not only is in sync with the broad sweep of the above-mentioned developments but it unveils a tantalizingly new pattern of regional alignments involving Israel and Syria, with the US and Russia as the stakeholders – something unthinkable until now.
– Clearly, the events in Egypt are increasingly finding the US, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Russia on the same page. All these four major protagonists are willing to wager that the controversial coup in Egypt might eventually stabilize the situation in that country and even strengthen democratic rule.
– All these protagonists would agree that political Islam turned out to be the unwelcome beneficiary of the "Arab Spring." Indeed, by the analogy of Egypt, as hinted in the Saudi King’s Ramadan message, big trouble seems to lie ahead for the Islamist movements in the region as whole, including the Syrian rebel groups.
As a former Israeli ambassador to the US, Zalman Shoval summed up in an article titled "New Dawn on the Nile" in Jerusalem Post,
All things considered, the possible demise of Islamism as the major political force in at least parts of the Arab world could eventually lead to a more secular, down-to-earth and less dogmatic and intolerant attitude on the part of our [Israel’s] neighbors.
– All in all, the struggle that lies ahead in Egypt and the turns that the Syrian situation is poised to take in the coming months have not only some striking parallels, but could be inter-related.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar served as a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for over 29 years, with postings including India’s ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-1998) and to Turkey (1998-2001).
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