La Germania resiste all’austerità nel bilancio preventivo
WILLIAM BOSTON, ANDREAS KISSLER e MATTHIAS RIEKER
– La Germania, portato a termine il bilancio preventivo 2012: la prima potenza europea si conferma una eccezione nel panorama UE;
o i bilanci nazionali hanno anche una forte valenza politica, e la Merkel usa politicamente il bilancio 2012 per dimostrare agli elettori che nel pieno della peggiore crisi economica da decenni, la maggior parte dei tedeschi non è mai stata tanto bene.
– Grazie ai forti introiti fiscali il deficit di bilancio scenderà quest’anno a €22MD contro i €48 MD previsti; per il 2012 il parlamento prevede un deficit a €26,1MD, anziché i €27,2MD previsti in precedenza.
– Il nuovo bilancio prevede circa €5MD di entrate da privatizzazioni, comprese quote di Deutsche Telekom e Deutsche Post.
– Continuerà la riduzione dei dipendenti pubblici, -1300, a 254 200; aumenteranno solo i dipendenti del ministero Finanze, a causa dei nuovi compiti legati alla stabilizzazione dell’euro.
o La Germania ha registrato il più basso tasso di disoccupazione da decenni, al 7%;
o trova il denaro per infrastrutture e riduzioni alle imposte;
o e per conservare l’influenza tedesca nel gruppo aerospaziale franco-tedesco, EADS, acquistandone una quota del 7,5%, per e1MD, ora detenuta da Daimler.
o Previsto un investimento di €1MD per riparazioni della rete ferroviaria e autostradale;
o allo studio del governo il risarcimento per €1MD delle comunità colpite alla chiusura di basi militari, manovra per avere il sostegno politico da Land e comunità locali per un piano controverso di riduzione delle forze armate;
o allo studio anche un sussidio di €100/mese per i genitori che mandano i figli negli asili privati, invece che statali.
o Il PIL per il 2012 è però previsto a +0,8%, contro il +2,9% del 2011;
o tuttavia programma l’equilibrio di bilancio per il 2016.
o Il governo ha deciso di rivedere le regole fiscali in modo da ottenere riduzioni fiscali di circa €6MD nel 2013, a sostegno della rielezione della Merkel.
– In risposta alle proteste popolari contro l’aumento dei poveri tra i lavoratori che per alcuni settori (fiorai, parrucchieri, spazzini) hanno salari talmente bassi, fino a €2,75/h, che spesso devono integrare con sussidi sociali,
o il governo ha fatto quasi un dietro front sul salario minimo – che non esiste per legge in Germania, e a cui finora la Merkel si è opposta – ma sindacati e padronato concordano un salario minimo settore per settore. Dovrebbe essere creata una commissione di sindacati e imprenditori che dovrebbero stabilire il livello salariale minimo per i settori che ora non l’hanno; questo non costerebbe nulla al governo, ma dimostrerebbe che la Merkel è convinta che l’economia tedesca è abbastanza forte da costringere le piccole imprese ad aumentare i salari.
– Francia, la seconda potenza europea: il governo ha presentato due bilanci di austerità nel tentativo di mantenere la tripla A nel rating per il credito.
– Grecia: tagli ai salari del Pubblico Impiego e chiusura di servizi pubblici vitali, compresi alcuni ospedali,
Italia: settima potenza mondiale, nel G7, è monitorata dall’FMI.
Germany Resists Austerity in Budget
By WILLIAM BOSTON, ANDREAS KISSLER and MATTHIAS RIEKER
– BERLIN—As Germany puts the final touches on its 2012 budget, it is becoming increasingly clear that Europe’s largest economy is a glaring exception at a time when a worsening debt crisis is forcing other major capitals to pull their belts ever tighter.
– Berlin is enjoying its lowest unemployment in decades and the government is still finding money to spend on infrastructure and income tax cuts and to preserve German influence in the French-German aerospace group European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. by buying shares in the company.
– But in France, Europe’s second-largest economy, the government has presented two austerity budgets as it tries to preserve its triple-A credit rating.
– Greece’s government has been forced to slash public-sector wages and shut down vital public services, even closing some hospitals.
– And Italy, one of the world’s biggest economies and a member of the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations, is being monitored by the International Monetary Fund.
– Of course, Germany can’t escape the global economic slowdown. Growth in German gross domestic product is expected to grind nearly to a halt, falling to just 0.8% next year after about 2.9% this year, the European Commission forecast this week. Yet even as growth slows, Germany remains on track to balance its budget by 2016 and even has money to spend.
"We now have stronger tax revenues, rising wages and our companies are more competitive. That is why we can consider doing these things now," said Peter Altmaier, chief parliamentary whip for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats.
The German parliament put the final touches on the 2012 budget on Friday. Bolstered by strong tax revenues, the final deficit this year will fall to €22 billion from a projected €48 billion. Parliament also cut the forecast budget deficit for 2012 to €26.1 billion from an original forecast of €27.2 billion.
Federal spending is expected to be unchanged at about €306 billion.
Germany’s robust job market—unemployment is 7%—is creating a windfall in employment taxes. As a result, federal tax revenue is expected to be €2.7 billion higher next year than previously forecast, at about €250 billion.
– The government is also taking steps to bolster its finances. The new budget earmarks about €5 billion in revenue from privatizations, which could include shares held in telecommunications giant Deutsche Telekom AG and the postal agency Deutsche Post AG.
– And the government will continue to cut public-service employees, reducing the number of government workers by 1,300 to 254,200.
One area of public service won’t suffer, however. The finance ministry will see its staff increase "as a result of increasing tasks involved in stabilizing the euro," the budget committee said.
– Despite its fiscal health, Germany isn’t planning significant new spending on major projects, but it does have leeway on spending.
– The government announced Friday, for example, that it would earmark €1 billion (about $1.36 billion) in the 2012 budget to purchase a 7.5% stake in EADS in order to preserve Germany’s influence on the board. The stake is now held by Daimler AG, which wants to sell the shares.
– Germany has also found €1 billion for repairs to the national railway system and highways. And in an apparent political trade-off, the government is considering creating a special €1 billion fund to help communities hit by the closure of military bases, a move to buy political support from the states and local communities for a controversial plan to streamline the German military.
– In a nod to families, the government is also considering a new €100-a-month subsidy for parents who send their children to private nannies or day care rather than state-sponsored day-care centers.
– And to thank German citizens for the burdens they have shouldered during the euro-zone debt crisis, leaders of Ms. Merkel’s center-right ruling coalition last week agreed to restructure income tax rules in a way that would result in an effective tax cut of about €6 billion in 2013, just in time to give a boost to Ms. Merkel’s re-election campaign that same year.
– In the face of growing public outrage over the rise of a new class of working poor in Germany, Ms. Merkel has done an about-face on the issue of minimum wages. Germany has no statutory minimum wage like the U.S. or many European countries. Instead, union[e]s and employers work out minimum pay on a sector-by-sector basis.
– But there are still many low-paying workers such as florists, hairdressers and sanitation workers, who earn such low wages that they often have to supplement their income with social-welfare payments. In some parts of the country full-time florists and gardeners earn as little as €2.75 an hour.
– In the past, Ms. Merkel has opposed a minimum wage. Now, she is considering establishing a commission of union[e]s and employers who would be charged with establishing minimum wage levels for those industries that don’t have them now.
– The issue won’t cost the government a single euro, but Ms. Merkel’s switch here shows that she believes Germany’s economy is strong enough to force small companies to pay employees a liveable wage. The move has drawn opposition within her Christian Democrat party, but is supported by a large majority of German voters.
As much as national budgets are created to pay a country’s bills, budgets are also intensely political affairs. And while the rest of Europe groans under the weight of the debt crisis, Ms. Merkel is using the 2012 budget to demonstrate to her voters that even in the midst of the worst global economy in decades most German citizens have never had it so good.
—Mary M. Lane contributed to this article.