Dati su occupazione, salari, indennità – Cresce la miseria sociale
– Mentre secondo il governo ed i media americani la recessione sta rallentando, crescono disoccupati, continuano a calare i salari e la copertura previdenziale.
● Tesi Wsws: La crisi economica che infuria destabilizzerà la vita politica e sociale americana, radicalizzando numerose persone; essa sta creando inevitabilmente le condizioni per uno scontro tra salariati e capitalisti.
● Se la recessione sparirà a fine anno, si prevede che avverrà senza ripresa dell’occupazione, la classe operaia non condividerà l’aumento degli affari, dei profitti e dei valori di Borsa.
● Nel primo trimestre 2009, il 16,2% del reddito degli americani proveniva da sussidi e buoni statali, la quota più alta dal 1929, da quando vengono raccolti tali dati. A marzo 33,2 mn. di americani (+5,2 mn. in un anno) vivevano di buoni alimentari statali.
● Disoccupazione ufficiale 9,5%, oltre 14,5 mn., di cui 7 mn., pari al 4,5%, sono disoccupati da 15 settimane o più, la quota più alta dal 1948;
● includendo coloro che non cercano più un posto di lavoro e coloro che hanno dovuto accettare lavori a tempo parziale il tasso dei senza lavoro è del 16,4%, record almeno dal 1994;
o ad es. in California (lo stato più popoloso) sarebbe del 20,3% (dati NYT); in Oregon il 23,5%, Michigan e Rhode Island 21,5%, South Carolina 20,5%. Appena inferiore al 20% in Tennessee, Nevada.
● La valutazione della “disoccupazione reale” secondo diversi analisti:
18,2%, sopra la quota alla vigilia della II Guerra Mondiale (Center for Labor Market Studies, Boston);
20,6% (John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics);
18,7%, secondo altri analisti; in ogni caso è stata sconquassata la vita di moltissime persone.
– David Rosenberg, capo economista della società di investimento Gluskin Skeff, Toronto, ed ex capo economista di Merryl Lynch, per il Nord America: “Il numero dei disoccupati ufficiali è raddoppiato durante l’attuale recessione a 14 milioni e, tendendo conto di tutte le forme di rallentamento del mercato del lavoro si avvicina ai 30 milioni”.
– I dati sulle perdite di posti di lavoro:
● dall’inizio della recessione nel dicembre 2007 ne sono stati distrutti 6,5 mn., pari al 4,3% dei posti di lavoro e al 5,4% del privato.
● Previste perdite occupazionali per il 2009 di quasi 3 milioni; nel primo trimestre una media di oltre 700mila al mese.
o diciassette mesi di seguito di calo occupazionale, come nella recessione 1981-82.
– Nel prossimo anno si aggiungeranno decine di migliaia di disoccupati dal settore componentistica per auto e piccole imprese.
● 1,8 milioni i posti di lavoro persi da inizio crisi nel settore manifatturiero; a maggio -156mila nelle fabbriche; -59mila nelle costruzioni.
● Servizi -120mila, commercio al dettaglio 17500.
● nuovi disoccupati tra gli impiegati: -30mila servizi finanziari; servizi professionali -51mila.
● Occupazione temporanea, -6500 a maggio;
● raddoppiata la disoccupazione tra i laureati, al 4,8%;
● -7000 tra i dipendenti del governo;
● +44mila educazione e sanità; + 3000 alberghiero e ricreativo.
● Per mantenere il passo con la crescita della popolazione, con l’entrata di giovani lavoratori nel mercato del lavoro, dovrebbero essere creati 150mila posti di lavoro al mese; viceversa per quasi un anno ne sono stati persi centinaia di migliaia al mese.
● Oggi l’economia americana ha un numero di posti di lavoro inferiori a quelli del maggio 2000; è stata spazzata via tutta la crescita dei posti di lavoro degli ultimi 9 anni,
● con il numero degli attivi aumentato di 12,5 mn.
● Secondo l’economista Rosemberg si sono persi 9 mn. di posti di lavoro a tempo pieno, oltre il triplo di quelli normalmente persi in una recessione dopo la II GM; circa 2 milioni sono passati al lavoro a tempo parziale.
Non verranno recuperati oltre 4 milioni di posti di lavoro nei servizi, edilizia residenziale, manifatturiero di beni durevoli, commercio all’ingrosso, divertimento e tempo libero.
I nuovi posti di lavoro sono diminuiti del 42% dalla fine 2007, a giugno 2009 c’erano 6 disoccupati per ogni nuovo posto di lavoro; giugno 2008-giugno 2009, +70% il numero dei disoccupati da oltre 6 mesi (dal 17,1% al 29%).
Dato che gli imprenditori preferiscono assumere lavoratori con esperienza ai giovani, il tasso ufficiale di disoccupazione giovanile è al 15,2% per i 20-24enni (+49% in 12 mesi), e del 24% per i 16-19enni; al 38% per gli afro-americani 16-19enni.
– In aprile superavano il 10% di disoccupazione 93 aree metropolitane, con una crescita di 13 volte in un anno; nove delle 13 aree con disoccupazione oltre il 15% sono in California.
– Produzione oraria (= produttività non agricola) +1,6% annualizzata, il doppio del tasso previsto, insolito per un periodo di recessione.
– Oltre all’aumento dei disoccupati sono in atto tagli a salari, orari e indennità varie:
o l’orario settimanale medio è sceso a 33 h. a giugno, il livello più basso dal 1964 (anno da cui si inizia a calcolarlo);
o il calo complessivo di posti di lavoro e di ore di lavoro a giugno equivaleva alla perdita di 800mila posti di lavoro.
o Il salario medio settimanale è sceso dai $613,34 di magio a $611,49 di giugno;
o secondo l’Ufficio di statistica del lavoro il salario reale settimanale, destagionalizzato, è sceso a giugno dell’1,2 (dovuto a -0,3% delle ore e al +0,9% dei prezzi.
o La produzione industriale USA è calata per l’ottavo mese consecutivo; a giugno il settore industria ha operato al 68% delle capacità contro il 68,2% di maggio, un nuovo record al ribasso da 42 anni.
– Perdite per l’assistenza sanitaria:
– nel 2007 45,7 mn. di americani non avevano una copertura sanitaria; si prevede che a fine 2010 saranno + 15%, pari a +6,9 mn. (Vari i fattori: aumento dei costi, taglio di affari o eliminazione previdenza, e disoccupazione)
– Previsioni dell’associazione Families USA: gennaio 2008-dic. 2010, 995 200 persone in California perderanno l’assistenza sanitaria, pari a 6380 persone la settimana.
o Negli USA l’aumento delle persone senza copertura sanitaria sarà di 44mila la settimana.
o In Texas, dove c’è il maggior tasso di persone prive di assistenza sanitaria, il loro numero aumenterà di 866 000 unità per la fine 2010.
Florida, +3500 la settimana; NY, quasi 2500; Illinois e Georgia, entrambi, + 1600; New Jersey + 1200, Michigan +1000.
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– Contrary to Obama administration and media claims about the recession “easing,” millions of working people in America are losing their jobs, earnings and health care benefits at an accelerating pace.
While executives at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and other financial giants prepare to pay themselves billions of dollars this year in salaries and bonuses, life has continued to become more and more difficult for a broad layer of the population.
– The New York Times pointed out on Wednesday that in California and a number of other states, “one out of every five people who would like to be working full time is not now doing so.”
– The official jobless rate of 9.5 percent excludes both those who have stopped looking for jobs because local conditions are so bleak and those obliged to accept part-time employment.
– If these unemployed and underemployed were included, the real jobless rate in the country’s most populous state, California, for example, would be 20.3 percent, according to the Times. In Oregon it would be 23.5 percent, in Michigan and Rhode Island, 21.5 percent, and in South Carolina, 20.5 percent. The figure would be just below 20 percent in Tennessee, Nevada and a number of “states that have relied heavily on manufacturing and housing.”
– Given that the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ national jobless rate is skewed, for political reasons, to minimize the actual conditions, various analysts step in and attempt to come up with a “real unemployment” number.
– The Center for Labor Market Studies at Boston’s Northeastern University places the current jobless rate at 18.2 percent, higher than the official figure on the eve of World War II. John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics puts the “Alternative Unemployment” rate at 20.6 percent. Other analysts calculate an “Effective Unemployment” figure of 18.7 percent. Whatever the precise number, the army of unemployed is large and swelling. A great many lives have already been devastated.
– David Rosenberg, chief economist at the investment firm Gluskin Sheff in Toronto and former chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, argues: “The official ranks of the unemployed have doubled during this recession to 14 million and if you take into account all forms of labour market slack, the unofficial number is bordering on 30 million, another record.”
– The figures on job losses in the current slump are staggering. Since the start of the recession in December 2007 the US economy has lost a total of 6.5 million jobs. In fact, the economy presently has fewer jobs than it did in May 2000. The Economic Policy Institute points out that “the entire growth in jobs over the last nine years has been wiped out,” while the labor force has actually expanded by 12.5 million workers.
– According to economist Rosenberg, “We have lost a record 9 million full-time jobs this [business] cycle, more than triple what is normal in the context of a post-WWII recession, with over 2 million pushed onto part-time work.” He notes that three-quarters of those laid off over the past year were let go on a permanent, not a temporary basis, and that a record 53 percent of those currently out of work were displaced for good.
– Rosenberg estimates that more than four million jobs in financial services, residential construction, durable goods manufacturing, wholesale-retail and leisure-hospitality “are not going to come back.” The destruction of millions of better-paying, full-time jobs has enormous implications for the living standards of working families.
– Job openings in the US have dropped by 42 percent since the end of 2007, so that in June 2009 there were some six unemployed looking for every job. As a result, the percentage of the jobless out of work for more than six months increased by nearly 70 percent from June 2008 to June 2009 (17.1 to 29 percent).
– Since employers, who can afford to pick and choose, are generally taking experience over youth, and workers over 55 are holding on to their jobs for dear life, the official unemployment rate for young people has jumped to 15.2 percent for 20-24 year olds (a 49 percent increase in 12 months!) and 24 percent for 16-19 year olds. For African-Americans 16 to 19, the jobless rate is currently 38 percent.
– As serious as they are, the jobless figures are only part of the story. Public and private employers across the country are taking advantage of the recession to cut wages, hours (through “unpaid leave,” “furloughs” and other means) and benefits, impoverishing many of those still employed.
– The average work week fell to 33 hours in June, the lowest since data was collected in 1964, and 48 minutes shorter than when the recession began. The combined decline in jobs and hours in June was the equivalent of a loss of some 800,000 jobs.
Business Week notes that “Cuts in pay and hours are rippling throughout the economy in businesses large and small and industries from mining to retail.” A survey commissioned by the Economist in June found 5 percent of respondents had already taken a furlough in 2009 and 13 percent had taken a pay cut.
– Mortimer Zuckerman in the July 14 Wall Street Journal commented: “Full-time workers are being downgraded to part time as businesses slash labor costs to remain above water, and factories are operating at only 65% of capacity.” Average weekly earnings fell to $611.49 in June, from $613.34 in May.
– The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that real average weekly earnings fell by 1.2 percent from May to June after seasonal adjustment. The drop resulted from a 0.3 percent decrease in average weekly hours and a 0.9 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index, driven by a sharp jump in gasoline prices.
– Also on Wednesday, reports showed that industrial production declined in the US, for the eighth straight month. The industrial sector operated at 68 percent of its capacity in June, down from 68.2 percent in May, a new low in the 42 years since the data have been collected.
Meanwhile, eleven of the 17 Federal Reserve governors and regional bank presidents are predicting that unemployment will be 10 percent or higher in the final three months of 2009, and they expect the downturn, according to the Washington Post, “to be long-lasting.”
– American workers are not only losing jobs and homes, they are also losing health care “at an alarming rate,” says a new report from Families USA. While the latest data from the Census Bureau indicated that 45.7 million Americans lacked health coverage in 2007, “economists believe the situation has only worsened in the intervening months as the economic downturn has taken its toll.” Experts predict an additional 6.9 million people in the US—a 15 percent increase—will lose their health coverage by the end of 2010.
Behind this health care disaster are the combined effects of rising costs, businesses slashing or eliminating coverage, and unemployment.
– Noting that the rapid increase in joblessness means that the various states will probably “experience even greater losses … than can be captured by our Key Findings,” Families USA estimates that between January 2008 and December 2010, 995,200 people in California, for example, will lose health coverage—or 6,380 per week. In Texas, which has the highest percentage of uninsured, some 866,000 residents will lose coverage by the end of next year.
– In Florida, more than 3,500 people a week are losing coverage; in New York, nearly 2,500 people; in both Illinois and Georgia some 1,600 people; in New Jersey, 1,200, and in Michigan, a little more than 1,000 people each week.
– In the US as a whole, the group estimates that 44,000 people are losing their health care every week.
On July 7 the American Bankers Association reported delinquencies on consumer debt rose to record levels, as customers had difficulty paying for everything from credit cards to automobiles. The percentage of borrowers at least 30 days late paying a balance is the highest since the association began keeping records in 1974.
– ABA Chief Economist James Chessen stated bluntly, “The number one driver of delinquencies is job loss. When people lose their jobs, they can’t pay their bills. Delinquencies won’t improve until companies start hiring again.”
Public outrage at the present situation is growing. It is not uncommon to hear the rich, the “filthy” bankers, being denounced in work places and neighborhoods. Many workers—abandoned by the unions to their fate, lied to and cheated by the Democrats—have been stunned by the rapidity of the crisis. The Economist, a little nervously, refers to “The quiet Americans,” who are “proving stoical in the face of pay cuts and compulsory unpaid leave.” Later the magazine adds, “for the moment.”
– Whatever the initial problems and hesitations of the population, the raging economic crisis will destabilize American political and social life, and radicalize vast numbers of people. It is inevitably creating the conditions for a showdown between working people, the vast majority, and the corporate aristocracy. Building an independent political movement of the working class based on a socialist and internationalist program to offer a progressive way out of the crisis is the most pressing task.
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– The US unemployment rate climbed to 9.4 percent in May, the highest level in more than a quarter century, according to statistics released by the Department of Labor on Friday. The jobless rate jumped by a half a percentage point over April, as employers shed 345,000 positions overall.
– Over 14.5 million US workers are now officially unemployed. Seven million of these, or 4.5 percent of the workforce, have been without work for 15 weeks or longer—the largest proportion of the workforce since before 1948, when the government began tracking the figure.
– The official US jobless rate does not include those forced to work part-time, “discouraged workers” (those no longer actively seeking work), and other “marginally attached workers.” Adding these categories, the jobless rate now stands at 16.4 percent—the highest figure since at least 1994, when the Labor Department began to track the statistic. A staggering one of every six American workers is now unemployed or underemployed.
– The US economy has purged more than six million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, and racked up seventeen straight months of job losses, equaling the record set during the 1981-82 recession.
o Since 2007, the US has lost 4.3 percent of its jobs and 5.4 percent of its private sector positions. These are also records, exceeding “the peaks since 1950 of 4.2 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, set in that 1958 recession,” according to Floyd Norris of the New York Times.
The scale of the increase in the jobless rate had not been anticipated. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to rise to 9.2 percent from 8.9 percent in April.
What the Times called a “statistical puzzle”—the unemployment rate exceeding economists’ expectations while job losses came in lower than anticipated—is explained by a larger than expected flow of discouraged workers back into the job hunt.
– The two statistics are also gathered in different ways. The overall unemployment rate is based on a survey of households; the monthly jobs tally is based on a survey of employers.
– Job losses for the current year are in the neighborhood of 3 million. During the first quarter, the US lost an average of more than 700,000 jobs per month. The downwardly revised figure for April is now 504,000.
The figures make clear that the so-called recovery being touted by the Obama administration and the media would entail a decline in the pace of the economic free-fall, only to be followed by a protracted period of high unemployment, declining wages and growing poverty. This is not a temporary downturn to be followed by a return to pre-crash conditions.
– The data brings into focus the true meaning of the Obama administration’s calls for fiscal discipline and lower consumption: a much poorer general population and even greater economic inequality between the financial aristocracy and the people.
– The new statistics do not take into account the plant closures and dealership closings recently announced by General Motors and Chrysler. These measures and related layoffs among auto parts makers and small businesses, will add tens of thousands to the ranks of the jobless over the next year.
– Job losses hammered nearly every sector of the economy. Factories purged the most jobs in May—156,000 in all. About 1.8 million manufacturing jobs have been lost since the recession began, and more than 300,000 in the last two months alone.
Earlier in the week, the Commerce Department announced that orders for manufactured goods increased by only 0.7 percent in April, after a 1.9 percent March decline, and that factory shipments fell 0.2 percent—the ninth consecutive monthly decline. In March, shipments fell 1.8 percent.
– Showing that the housing sector has yet to hit bottom, construction firms cut 59,000 jobs, about half the level from April. Construction job losses are being driven by the crisis engulfing the commercial and home real estate markets, which shows no signs of abating.
The first quarter saw a record number of homeowners enter into mortgage delinquency or foreclosure, at just over 12 percent of all mortgage loans, according to a recent analysis by the Mortgage Bankers Association. For the first time, the majority of these “troubled loans” are outside of the sub-prime market.
On Friday, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported that the value of troubled commercial real estate loans has more than doubled in the past year, with most of the increase taking place in the first quarter of 2009. FDIC-insured banks now carry about $30 billion in bad commercial real estate loans.
– The service sector lost 120,000 jobs, with retailers eliminating 17,500. A survey by Thomson Reuters, published earlier in the week, showed that same-store sales fell 4.8 percent in May—far more than the 4.1 percent decline anticipated by economists.
– Of 30 major retailers, 19 missed sales projections—not counting industry leader Wal-Mart, which this month ceased publishing its monthly sales data. Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics, noted that the decline was across-the-board. “The high end continues to struggle,” he said. “Those in the discretionary spend segment are really continuing to get clocked.”
– There are also tens of thousands of newly-unemployed white collar workers, with the financial services industry eliminating 30,000 and business and professional services firms cutting 51,000.
– Temporary employment fell by 6,500 jobs in May.
– Among college graduates, unemployment has more than doubled in one year to 4.8 percent.
– Even the government sector reported eliminating 7,000 jobs, an indication that President Barack Obama’s economic stimulus package has done little to relieve states and localities facing mounting budget deficits.
– Education and health care added 44,000 jobs. Leisure and hospitality, in anticipation of the summer vacation months, added a mere 3,000.
– Just to keep pace with population growth—the entry of young workers into the job market—the US economy must add 150,000 jobs overall per month. Instead, it has been losing hundreds of thousands of jobs per month for nearly a year, and will continue to do so for months to come. Those fortunate enough to keep their jobs have seen their hours and wages cut. Over April and May, average hourly wages were stagnant—growing at just 0.1 percent, and falling 0.1 percent for manufacturing workers.
– The average work week fell to 33.1 hours, the lowest since authorities began compiling such statistics in 1964, according to the Labor Department. Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist for Mizuho Securities, noted that May’s “smaller loss in employment … came at the expense of hours worked, which dropped across the board.” The shrunken hourly work week means that employers can, in the event of a rebound, increase the hours of their current workforce without hiring anew.
– Those still working are being driven harder. Workers’ hourly output, or non-farm business productivity, rose at a 1.6 percent annualized rate during the first quarter, according to statistics released by the Labor Department on Thursday. This was double the predicted rate, and unusual for a recession, economists said.
“Generally, in a recession you have productivity move down,” Michael Feroli, an economist with JPMorgan Chase, told the Wall Street Journal.
Job losses have spared no major urban area or region.
– Canada, which also issued its jobs report Friday, once again mirrored the catastrophe south of the border. The unemployment rate increased 0.4 percent to 8.4 percent, its highest level in eleven years. In Ontario, Canada’s largest province, the figure climbed to 9.4 percent, a result of declining exports to the US market and a near-collapse in industrial production. Canada has lost 363,000 jobs since October.
– On Wednesday, the US Labor Department reported that 93 metropolitan areas surpassed the 10 percent unemployment mark in April, an astonishing 13-fold increase in one year. Nine of the 13 metropolitan areas that have unemployment rates higher than 15 percent are in California. El Centro, California had an unemployment rate of nearly 27 percent in April—the highest in the nation. Among big cities, Detroit-Warren-Livonia had the highest unemployment rate at 13.6 percent.
– Economists and policy makers have predicted that the recession will gradually tail off late this year or early next. But there is broad agreement that this would be “the mother of all jobless recoveries,” as one economist put it. While business activity, profits and stock values may increase, the working class will not share in the rebound.
The most striking reaction to the employment report came in the US Treasury bonds market, which was thrown into “cardiac arrest,” wrote Tom Petruno of the Los Angeles Times. On Friday, the yield on ten-year Treasury notes increased 0.13 percentage points to 3.84 percent, and yields on two-year Treasury notes “rocketed” from 0.96 percent to 1.25 percent.
“Yields are soaring … threatening another big jump in mortgage rates,” Petruno wrote. “If rising home loan rates price more buyers out of the market, sellers will have to respond by cutting asking prices,” thus further depressing the housing market and home values.
– US consumers also confront a sharp increase in the cost of fueling their cars. Oil prices hit a six-month high of over $70 per barrel before closing slightly lower at $68.44 on Friday. Industry analysts maintain that there is still a glut of oil on the market. The recent rise in prices is attributed largely to the declining value of the dollar and commodities speculation.
– High unemployment, stagnating wages and rising prices will combine in the coming months to intensify the social crisis. Household and commercial bankruptcies are expected to reach 1.5 million this year, according to data from the Automated Access to Court Electronic Records, which surveys bankruptcy data for lenders and attorneys. The figure would be the highest since 2005, when Congress passed Wall Street-backed “reforms” to the bankruptcy code making it more difficult for consumers to seek protection from their creditors in bankruptcy court.
– Poverty and unemployment are stretching the US social safety net, according to a study released this week by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. During the first quarter of 2009, one sixth, or 16.2 percent, of Americans’ personal income came through federal or state checks and vouchers such as Social Security, unemployment insurance, and food stamps. This marks the highest proportion since the government began keeping data in 1929.
– A record number of Americans, 33.2 million, relied on food stamps in March, an increase of 5.2 million in one year.
– These figures give an indication of the devastating social implications of the austerity policies being prepared by the Obama administration, which has made reducing health care costs and slashing Medicare and Social Security the centerpieces of its plans to reduce soaring budget deficits.
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