Il Giappone cerca di riequilibrare la sua dipendenza energetica dal MO prendendo accordi con alcuni paesi dell’Asia Centrale, contrastando l’influenza nella regione di Russia e Cina
- Koizumi, nell’ultimo viaggio all’estero come PM, ha visitato il Kazakistan e l’Uzbekistan; principalmente per assicurare rifornimenti di petrolio gas e uranio al Giappone, ridimensionando la sua forte dipendenza energetica dal MO.
Sia Kazakistan che Uzbekistan si sono resi disponibili per nuovi progetti col Giappone. - Il commercio del Giappone con il Kazakistan è valutato per 700 milioni $ all’anno, per un investimento totale di 1 miliardo $. Sumitomo Corp, la terza compagnia di trading del Giappone, e Kansai Electric Power Co. hanno un accordo per lo sviluppo in comune di una miniera di uranio con il gruppo statale Kaz Atom Prom. Itochu Corp prenderà accordi quest’anno per comprare uranio.
- Il Giappone sta cercando di competere con la Cina per il petrolio del Kazakistan; lo scorso Dicembre, il Kazakistan ha cominciato ad esportare petrolio tramite un oleodotto di 1000km alla Cina Occidentale, mentre le compagnie cinesi hanno assicurato diritti per le riserve di petrolio in tutto il Kazakistan. Secondo certi analisti, la produzione del Kazakistan di petrolio dovrebbe triplicare fino a raggiungere 3,5 milioni di barili al giorno entro il 2015, ponendolo al pari di Messico e Iran come maggiore produttore ed esportatore. Per evitare il territorio russo e cinese il Giappone potrebbe costruire strade e condutture dai paesi dell’Asia Centrale all’Oceano Indiano passando per l’Afghanistan.
- Kazakistan Uzbekistan e Mongolia, i tre paesi visitati da Koizumi, sono ricchi di petrolio e metalli rari quanto rame e carbone: il prezzo dei metalli rari, utili alla tecnologia giapponese, sono saliti alle stelle, ma il Giappone non può permettersi di rimanere dietro alle altre potenze nello sfruttamento di risorse in Asia Centrale.
- La nuova dottrina portata avanti da Koizumi prevede di aumentare la quota di "petrolio Hinomaru", (ossia sviluppato e importato da compagnie giapponesi), dal 15% al 40% del petrolio importato entro il 2030. Lo stesso per l’importazione di uranio che provvede alla prossima espansione di stazioni nucleari giapponesi.
- Il Giappone è il terzo produttore di energia nucleare del mondo dopo Usa e Francia, col 29% della sua elettricità generata da centrali nucleari. Inoltre è il terzo consumatore mondiale di petrolio dopo Usa e Cina ed è completamente dipendente dalle importazioni dal MO: ciò spiega anche l’interesse del Giappone in Irak al fianco degli Usa.
- Le condizioni di influenza di Tokyo in MO sono dettate da Washington: in seguito alle minacce di sanzioni di Bush all’Iran, è stato messo a rischio l’accordo di 2 miliardi $ tra Giappone e Iran del 2004 per sviluppare l’immenso giacimento petrolifero Azadegan, con un potenziale giornaliero di output pari a 400 mila barili e riserve di 26 miliardi di barili. Oltre alla scadenza data al Giappone, l’Iran potrebbe offrire il giacimento agli interessi cinesi o russi.
- La discussione aperta dal Giappone con Uzbekistan Kazakistan Tagikistan e Kirghizistan, con l’Afghanistan come osservatore, si è svolta in contemporanea col summit della SCO, in cui Putin ha sottolineato di non approvare raggruppamenti politici in concorrenza nella regione.
Inoltre il tentativo di Tokyo di convincere la Russia a costruire un oleodotto dalla Siberia al porto sul Pacifico vicino a Vladivostok per facilitare i carichi per il Giappone si è arrestato. La Russia ha poi sospeso un grosso progetto di gas naturale – Sakhalin-2 –nel quale le compagnie giapponesi sostenute dal governo hanno una partecipazione del 45%.
Japan’s energy diplomacy and Koizumi’s trip to Central Asia
By Joe Lopez
28 September 2006
In one of his last trips abroad before stepping
down as Japan’s prime minister this week, Junichiro Koizumi visited the Central Asian
republics of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan late last month. The main aim was to
secure agreements to supply oil, gas and uranium to Japan.
The four-day trip—the first by a Japanese
leader to Central Asia—was driven
by a strategy to diversify Japan’s energy supplies from its heavy reliance on
the Middle East. It highlighted Japan’s growing involvement in the big
power rivalry in Central Asia that opened up after the collapse of the Soviet
Union in 1991.
Although Koizumi returned to Japan without any
signed deals, the
Kazakhstan government has agreed to expand talks and co-operation with Japan on
possible oil, gas and uranium projects. Uzbek President Islam Karimov agreed to
further discuss joint uranium projects in Uzbekistan. “We see great
possibilities and are ready to give our resources to supply Japan with uranium
… oil and gas, and other mineral resources,” Karimov declared at a joint press
conference.
Japan is trying to expand its foothold in the
region through Kazakhstan. Japan’s
trade with Kazakhstan is now $700 million a year and its investments total $1
billion. Sumitomo Corp, Japan’s third largest trading company, and Kansai
Electric Power Co. signed an agreement in January to jointly develop a uranium
mine with Kazakhstan’s state-run Kaz Atom Prom. Itochu Corp secured a deal this
year to buy uranium.
More
significantly, Japan is seeking to compete with China for Kazakhstan’s oil. Last
December, Kazakhstan began exporting oil along a 1,000-kilometre pipeline to
western China, and Chinese oil companies have been securing rights to oil
reserves throughout Kazakhstan. According to energy analysts, Kazakhstan’s oil
production is expected to almost triple to 3.5 million barrels per day by 2015,
putting it on a par with Mexico and Iran as a major oil producer and exporter.
One of
Japan’s options is to avoid Chinese and Russian territory by building roads and
pipelines from Central Asian countries to the Indian Ocean via Afghanistan. Despite the difficulties involved, Japan’s corporate elite is
determined to carry out the scheme.
A Yomiuri Shimbun editorial on August 30 summed up Japan’s strategic stake in Central Asia. It pointed out that resource-poor
Japan could not afford to fall behind the other major powers in tapping Central
Asian resources, not just of oil and uranium, but also rare metals such as
molybdenum and tungsten. The prices of rare metals, which are vital for
Japan’s hi-tech industry, have skyrocketed in the past few years. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and
Mongolia—the three countries visited by Koizumi—are rich in oil and rare metals
as well as copper and coal. “The administration that succeeds Koizumi
should get serious about tackling the resource diplomacy. It should enhance and
develop it,” the editorial declared.
Koizumi’s trip was tied up with Japan’s New
National Energy Strategy outlined in May. The new doctrine is aimed at boosting the ratio of
“Hinomaru oil”, that is oil developed and imported by Japanese-owned companies,
from 15 percent to 40 percent of all oil imports by 2030. The same strategy
applies to the production and import of uranium to fuel Japan’s future
expansion of nuclear power stations.
Japan is
the world’s third largest nuclear energy producer after the US and France, with
29 percent of its electricity generated by nuclear plants. Japan is also the
world’s third largest oil consumer after the US and China and is completely
dependent on imports from the Middle East.
Koizumi’s dispatch of Japanese troops to Iraq
to bolster the US-led occupation was in part motivated by the desire to secure
Iraqi oil. Tokyo is acutely aware that its share of Middle Eastern oil will
increasingly be dictated by Washington, which is seeking to establish its
domination throughout the region.
Of particular concern to Japan is the Bush administration’s threat of
sanctions and military action against Iran. At risk is the $2 billion deal
signed between Japan and Iran in 2004 to develop the huge Azadegan oil field,
with a potential daily output of 400,000 barrels and reserves of 26 billion
barrels. The deal between the state-controlled Japanese oil company,
Inpex, and the National Iranian Oil Company is now under threat. The Iranian government has given
Tokyo to the end of September to proceed with the project. Otherwise Tehran may
offer the oilfield to Chinese or Russian interests.
Japan is under strong pressure from the US not
to proceed with the Azadegan deal. Publicly, Inpex has declared that it is
unsatisfied with the progress of mine clearing in the area—one of the
battlefields in the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. However, the company’s main concern
is the potential impact of international sanctions or military action against
Iran.
Koizumi’s trip was also designed to expand
Japan’s political influence in the region. In June, Japan held a “Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue”
with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, with Afghanistan
invited as an observer. The discussions coincided with the summit of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Led by China and Russia, the SCO was
created as a strategic counterweight to growing US influence in Central Asia,
especially after the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.
Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso described
Tokyo’s aim at the dialogue as creating a new atmosphere in which “it is simply
impossible to ignore Japan when you discuss Central Asia”. In an apparent
rebuke to Tokyo, Russian President Vladimir Putin pointedly declared at the SCO summit that Moscow
did not welcome competing political groupings in the region.
By joining the Bush administration’s “war on
terror”, Koizumi has laid the basis for Japanese rearmament and a more
aggressive role in Asia. This strategy, however, is creating dilemmas for
Tokyo. Koizumi’s diplomacy
has antagonised not only China but also Russia, making Japan’s efforts
to tap into resources from the Russian Far East and Central Asia more
problematic.
Tokyo’s
efforts to persuade Moscow to build an oil pipeline from Siberia to a Pacific
port near Vladivostok to facilitate shipment to Japan have stalled. On
September 19, Japan’s strategy suffered another blow, after Russia suspended a
large natural gas project—Sakhalin-2—in which government-backed Japanese companies
have a 45 percent stake. Tokyo angrily protested
the decision.
Koizumi’s foray into Central Asia is just one
more indication of the escalating international competition for energy and
other raw materials that is fuelling tensions between the major powers as each
jockeys to secure domination in key strategic regions of the globe.