Cina, commercio int.le, USA, UE Nyt 06-01-12
La Cina informa: nel 2005 il surplus commerciale è triplicato
David Barboza
I recenti dati sul commercio int.le cinese indicano che la Cina influenzerà ad esempio sui prezzi di Wal-Mart e sui tassi di interesse globali; a completamento delle statistiche economiche 2005, la Cina risulterà probabilmente la 4-5a economia del mondo, davanti a Francia, Italia e GB.
Cina, 2005:
- surplus commerciale totale: $102MD, contro i $32MD del 2004;
- export, $762MD., +28%;
- import: $660MD, +18%;
- Tendenza già in calo, secondo un economista UBS, con aumento dell’import.
- commercio estero totale $1 400MD, al 3° posto mondiale dopo USA, Germania e prima del Giappone; dieci anni fa ammontava a $289MD.
- Il grosso del surplus comm. cinese proviene dall’export con le aree più ricche, USA ed Europa al primo posto. Negli ultimi 10 anni ha accumulato un surplus commerciale di £350MD, cifre probabilmente sottostimate perché gran parte delle merci viene spedita tramite Hongkong.
- Il surplus con gli USA: $114,7, contro i $80MD del 2004 ($162MD, secondo dati americani) e i $28MD del 2001MD.
- Escludendo gli USA, la Cina ha un deficit commerciale con il resto del mondo di circa $12MD, soprattutto con Sud Corea, Giapp., Malesia, Arabia Saudita e Angola.
- Secondo i dati del gov. Americano, il surplus cinese 2005 sarebbe circa di $200MD, $166MD già ragginti ad ottobre, la differenza di calcolo deriverebbe dall’inclusione o meno dei dati di Hongkong.
- Il record deficit commerciale USA con il resto del mondo del 2004, di $617MD, rischia di essere battuto. Continuano le richieste americane alla Cina di rivalutazione della propria moneta.
- Il surplus commerciale cinese con la UE, 2005, $70MD, Olanda e GB hanno il maggior deficit.
- La Cina ha probabilmente le maggiori riserve di moneta estera di qualsiasi altro paese: in nov. 2005 erano di $794MD, contro gli $828 MD del Giappone nello scorso anno.
Trade Surplus Tripled in ’05, China Says
By DAVID BARBOZA
The government said that exports in 2005 were a record $762 billion, up 28 percent, while imports climbed to $660 billion, up nearly 18 percent, from 2004. The $102 billion surplus was up from about $32 billion in 2004.
Total foreign trade in 2005 topped $1.4 trillion, making China No. 3 in the world in foreign trade after the United States and Germany and ahead of Japan.
Indeed, the customs figures released on Wednesday showed that the bulk of China’s trade surplus in 2005 came from exports to the world’s wealthiest regions, particularly the United States and Europe. The surplus with the United States reached a record $114.7 billion, up from $80 billion a year earlier and $28 billion in 2001. Excluding the United States, China actually had a trade deficit with the rest of the world of about $12 billion in 2005, largely with South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and even Angola.
And yet China’s figures may not be telling the entire story. According to United States government data, China’s trade surplus in 2005 could be nearly $200 billion. Just through October 2005, according to official government statistics in the United States, China already had a trade surplus with the United States of over $166 billion. The gap arises from differences in counting, like whether Hong Kong figures are integrated with those of China. The growing bilateral trade deficit could strain ties between the United States and China. In 2004, the United States had a record $617 billion trade deficit with the rest of the world, and it is on track to break that record.
In Beijing on Tuesday, Senator Max Baucus, Democrat of Montana, called on China to do its part to reduce its deficit with the United States, calling on the country to allow its currency to appreciate.
Europe fared only slightly better last year, according to the Chinese government. China reported a $70 billion trade surplus in 2005 with the European Union, with the Netherlands and Britain having notable imbalances.
The trade figures suggest a changing role for China in the global economy, indicating that it will influence things like prices at Wal-Mart and global interest rates.
China may also soon have more foreign currency reserves than any other country in the world, giving it even more influence on global interest rates. As of November, China reported having about $794 billion in foreign currency reserves, just behind Japan, which had about $828 billion at the end of last year.