Due
eventi recenti hanno confermato la trasformazione del Vietnam in una importante
base di lavoro a basso costo per molte delle maggiori imprese del mondo.
- Il
7 Novembre, il Wto ha presentato i termini per l’ammissione del Vietnam come
membro, che avrà luogo il 28 Dicembre. - Il
18-19 Novembre, il Vietnam ha ospitato per la prima volta la riunione annuale
dei dirigenti dell’APEC (Cooperazione Economica Asia-Pacifico), composta da 21
membri.
- Nella
stessa settimana in cui l’entrata del Vietnam nel Wto è stata confermata, il
conglomerato elettronico con sede negli Usa, Intel, ha annunciato che stava
espandendo massicciamente le sue fabbriche nella città di Ho Chi Minh (Saigon).
La società investirà 1 miliardo $ per stabilire il maggior impianto di
assemblaggio e verifica di chip per computer del mondo. - Quest’anno
gli FDI (Investimenti Diretti Esteri) nel Vietnam hanno sorpassato gli 8
miliardi $- cifra paragonabile a quelli in India. Nel 2005, il paese ha
attratto 6,1 miliardi $ in investimenti esteri. Il Pil del Vietnam di 53
miliardi $ dovrebbe superare il tasso di crescita dell’8,4% raggiunto nel 2005,
facendo diventare l’economia del paese la più rapida dopo la Cina nell’APEC. - Ci
sono ora 70 zone di lavorazioni per l’ export in Vietnam dove industrie di
proprietà estera e di joint venture sfruttano l’abbondante e giovane forza
lavoro del paese. La zona di Tan Thuan vicino Saigon ha ora oltre 55 mila
lavoratori, in confronto agli appena 20 mila del 2000 quando ci fu la visita di
Clinton. Il dirigente della zona Ting ha detto al Newsweek che la forza lavoro dovrebbe raddoppiare nei prossimi 10
anni.
L’export
ha raggiunto i 32 miliardi $ nel 2005. I media locali si aspettano che la cifra
cresca a 100 miliardi nei prossimi 5-7 anni. Il Vietnam è ora la destinazione a
crescita più rapida per l’export statunitense in Asia e il commercio reciproco
ha raggiunto i 7,8 miliardi nel 2005. 6 miliardi $ dell’export vietnamita sono
stati venduti al mercato statunitense.
- Hanoi
ha dovuto aderire a condizioni più dure rispetto alla Cina per essere ammesso
al WTO. Fra le richieste: riduzione delle barriere doganali, fine dei sussidi
alla produzione, conferimento alle compagnie estere del diritto di comprare ditte
vietnamite e garantire la protezione dei diritti di proprietà intellettuale.
Inoltre
sarà permessa una concorrenza senza limiti in molti settori dell’economia. Dal
prossimo Aprile, banche estere possono aprire filiali senza alcuna necessità di
entrare in società con istituzioni locali. Le compagnie di assicurazione estere
possono vendere polizze a singoli per la prima volta. Con un’economia in
crescita dove meno del 5 % della popolazione ha conti bancari e assicurazioni,
il Vietnam è considerato un importante mercato potenziale.
- E’
previsto che una joint venture tra il gigante Americano Wal Mart e l’indiana
Bearti Enterprises, annunciata il 27 Novembre, aprirà diverse centinaia di
supermercati in Vietnam nei prossimi 5 anni. Il primo sarà aperto nell’Agosto
2007. - Sebbene
Hanoi abbia aderito alle richieste del WTO, il Vietnam sarà ammesso come
“economia non di mercato” per più di 12 anni. La classificazione rende tutto
più facile agli altri paesi che potranno imporre tariffe “di emergenza” se
l’export del Vietnam è diminuito o dichiarato venduto sotto costo. - La
paura di beni a basso costo vietnamiti, in particolare tessili, era dietro il
fallimento del tentativo dell’amministrazione Bush il 13 Novembre di assicurare
al Congresso la maggioranza di 2 terzi necessaria per approvare normali
relazioni permanenti di commercio tra i due paesi. - Gli
investitori hanno criticato il sostegno continuo del governo alle industrie in
perdita di proprietà dello stato così come l’estensione della regolamentazione
e la corruzione dei funzionari. Ci sono state anche critiche per le
infrastrutture inadeguate, come la mancanza di porti ad acqua profonda, che
impediscono alle grandi navi da carico di attraccare.
I
livelli salariali comunque sono più economici che nelle città costiere della
Cina e un 54 % della popolazione è sotto i 30 anni. Alcune grandi società
vedono l’attività imprenditoriale vietnamita come una barriera contro
potenziali rischi sui loro investimenti cinesi, quali un’improvvisa
intensificazione delle tensioni tra Cina e Usa.
Il
sito di Corpwatch con sede negli Usa
ha osservato che molte società mantengono grandi stabilimenti in Cina e in
Vietnam così la produzione può continuare anche se i “venti politici cambiano”.
- Dalla
crisi asiatica del ’97-’98, il PC vietnamita ha accelerato le politiche
liberiste cominciate nell’86.
Due
terzi della popolazione, però, è ancora occupata nell’agricoltura ed è isolata
dai centri urbani di crescita.
Nelle
zone di esportazione, il governo ha già trovato malcontento. Nel Dicembre 2005
e nel Gennaio 2006, 40 mila lavoratori sono entrati in sciopero per i bassi
salari. Lo sciopero ha avuto luogo al di fuori del controllo dei sindacati
controllati dal governo. Il livello salariale ufficiale minimo non aumenta da 6
anni. Il governo ha dovuto aumentare i salari del 40 % a 55 $ al mese nelle
maggiori città, ma li ha mantenuti comunque inferiori al salario ufficiale
cinese di 63 $.
Vietnam
signs up to World Trade Organisation
By John Roberts
7 December 2006
Two recent events have confirmed Vietnam’s
transformation into a major cheap labour platform for many of the world’s
largest corporations.
On November 7, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) presented its terms
for admitting Vietnam
as a member, after 11 years of attempts by Hanoi to join. Vietnam’s
National Assembly overwhelmingly endorsed the offer on November 28 and
membership will take effect from December 28.
On November 18-19, Vietnam hosted
for the first time the annual gathering of the leaders of the 21-member
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). The capital Hanoi was abuzz with corporate
leaders eager to cash in on the country’s large pool of low-cost labour, high
educational standards and police-state repression of protests and opposition.
During the APEC summit, US President George Bush hailed the Vietnamese
Communist Party for its sweeping pro-market economic policies. US Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice enthused: “It seems that commerce and economic
development is just everywhere.” For its part, Vietnam’s
Stalinist leadership welcomed Bush and Rice, who are responsible for the
criminal invasion of Iraq
and Afghanistan,
with open arms.
More than 1,000 participants took part in APEC’s “CEO Summit”. “Vietnam has
demonstrated to the world its capacity for quantum leaps. It’s clear that the
government has recognised that broad-based reform and economic liberalisation
are essential to Vietnam’s
integration into the global economy,” Craig Mundie, Microsoft’s chief research
and strategy officer, told the gathering.
In the same week that Vietnam’s WTO
membership was approved, the US-based electronics conglomerate Intel announced
it was dramatically upsizing its plans for a new plant in Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon).
The company will invest $US1 billion to establish the largest computer chip
assembly and testing facility in the world. Intel executive Rick Howarth
explained: “I think Vietnam
is doing all the right things.”
Intel is not alone in making this assessment. Foreign direct investment
(FDI) into Vietnam
this year has passed $8 billion—a figure comparable to India. In 2005,
the country attracted $6.1 billion in foreign investment. Vietnam’s gross
domestic product of $53 billion is expected to surpass the 8.4 percent growth
rate achieved in 2005, making the economy the fastest growing in APEC after China.
Exports reached $32 billion in 2005. The local media expects the figure
will soar to $100 billion in the next five to seven years. Vietnam is now
the fastest growing destination for US exports in Asia
and two-way trade reached $7.8 billion in 2005. Some $6 billion in Vietnamese
exports were sold into the US market.
There are now 70 export processing zones in Vietnam where
foreign-owned and joint venture factories exploit the country’s large and
youthful workforce. The Tan Thuan zone near Saigon
now has over 55,000 workers, compared with just 20,000 when former US President
Bill Clinton visited in 2000. Zone manager Albert Ting told Newsweek the
workforce is expected to double over the next 10 years.
The WTO was set up in 1994 to replace the General Agreement on Tariffs
and Trade (GATT) and is the international mechanism for setting rules on
international trade. It is a vehicle for demanding the removal of national
regulations and impediments to the operations of global capital.
Hanoi
had to agree to much tougher conditions than Beijing when the China was
admitted to the WTO in 2000. Among the 900 pages of the WTO offer are
requirements that Vietnam
slash trade barriers, end subsidies, grant foreign companies the right to buy
Vietnamese firms and guarantee the protection of intellectual property rights.
Under the WTO agreement, unrestricted foreign competition will be
allowed in many sectors of the economy. From next April, foreign banks can set
up branches without any requirement to enter partnerships with local
institutions. Foreign insurance companies can sell policies to individuals for
the first time. In a growing economy where less than 5 percent of the
population has bank accounts or insurance, Vietnam is
considered a significant potential market.
The Vietnamese retail sector, which is currently dominated by
state-owned stores and small traders, will face competition from foreign-owned
chains. A joint venture between US giant Wal
Mart and Indian retailer Bharti Enterprises, announced on November 27, expects
to have several hundred stores in Vietnam within
five years. The first is due to open in August 2007.
Despite Hanoi
agreeing to the WTO demands, Vietnam will be
admitted as a “non-market economy” for up to 12 years. The classification makes
it easier for other countries to impose “emergency” tariffs if Vietnamese
exports are subsidised or alleged to be sold below cost.
Fears of low-price Vietnamese goods, particularly textiles, were behind
the Bush administration’s failure on November 13 to secure the two-thirds
majority needed in the US House of Representatives to approve permanent normal
trading relations between the two countries.
Foreign capital is demanding more concessions. Dominic Scriven of the
Saigon-based Dragon Capital investment bank told Time: “This is one of
the most pro-change places I’ve been in. But there is time required. The
headlines will come and the headlines will go, but the battle ahead is a long
one.”
Investors have criticised the government’s continuing support for
loss-making, state-owned factories as well as the extent of regulations and
official corruption. There have also been criticisms of inadequate
infrastructure, such as the lack of a deep-water port, which prevents super
freighters from docking.
Nevertheless foreign investment is pouring into Vietnam. Wage
rates are cheaper than in China’s coastal
cities and some 54 percent of the population are under 30. Some large
corporations see Vietnamese ventures as a hedge against potential risks to
their Chinese investments, such as a sharp escalation in US-China tensions.
The US-based Corpwatch website noted that many firms maintain
large factories in China
and Vietnam
so production can continue if the “political winds change”. Gordon Tucker, the
president of toy manufacturer Danu, said his company, which has two large
factories in China,
had opened a plant in Vietnam
in case China
lost its most favoured nation status with the US. “That’s
why we opened the factory in Vietnam, to
spread the risk. The government of Vietnam is no
worse than any other country,” he said.
In fact, the repressive character of the Vietnamese regime is a major
attraction. Since the 1997-1998 Asian economic crisis, the Communist Party has
accelerated its pro-market reforms or doi moi policies which began in
1986. It has also kept a tight rein on political dissent and social unrest,
which will only escalate as the regime implement the terms of the WTO entry.
Small-scale agriculture, fisheries and forestry will be hard hit by the
opening up of the economy to foreign imports. Two-thirds of the population are
involved in agriculture and are isolated from the urban centres of growth. Pham
Chi Lan, the former vice chairwoman of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and
Industry, warned in October that as many as nine million households will be
adversely affected.
In the export zones, the government has already confronted discontent.
In December 2005 and January 2006, 40,000 workers went on strike over low wage
rates. The strikes took place outside the control of the government-controlled
unions. The official minimum wage rate had not been increased for six years.
The government was forced to raise the rate by 40 percent to $55 a month in the
major cities, but kept it below the Chinese official rate of $63.
Ultimately the regime depends on its dictatorial methods to maintain its
rule. The foreign investors hailing the potential of Vietnam are
confident that the Communist Party will not hesitate to suppress any
threatening opposition movement—as its counterpart in Beijing has done.