Tesi Christopher Atwood, docente studi Centro
Eurasiatici, Indiana University, autore dell’ "Encyclopedia of Mongolia
and the Mongol Empire"
Mongolia, stato-cuscinetto tra Cina e Russia, si appoggia su
USA per bilanciare entrambi.
I tentativi cinesi di assimilare la Mongolia nella prima
parte del ‘900 indusse la Mongolia ad entrare nell’orbita sovietica, in cui
rimase fino al crollo del blocco sovietico a metà [?] anni ’80.
Mongolia è l’unico esempio di successo in Asia nella
transizione dal “comunismo” all’economia di mercato, e costituisce un banco di
prova della possibilità per i piccoli paesi di continuare a prosperare a fianco
del gigante emergente dell’Asia.
Mongolia è divenuta fornitore di materie prime alla vorace
industria cinese: rame, zinco, ferro e anche petrolio – con sviluppo di
industria mineraria, ma importano pochi beni di consumo dalla Cina.
Il piccolo esercito mongolo viene riorganizzato come forza
di peace keeping; 5 squadre da 130 uomini si sono alternate nell’Irak
meridionale; c’è anche presenza in Afghanistan. USA scelti quale partner
militare e strategico.
Si è sviluppata industria tessile ad opera dei cinesi, che
stabilivano fasi finali di lavorazione in Mongolia, non soggetta a quote per
export in USA: export verso USA passarono da quasi zero nel 1995 a 20% di
export nel 2000, e raddoppiando ancora nel 2004. Abolizione quote ha fatto
cadere export verso USA ai livelli 2001, ma per ora i 30 mila lavoratori
tessili non sono stati licenziati, in previsione di scaramucce commerciali
Cina-USA.
Si rafforzano inoltre legami USA-Mongolia attraverso
l’immigrazione clandestina, con formazione di comunità mongole a Washington,
Denver, Chicago, con propri settimanali.
Commento editoriale WSJ:
Una fermata nelle steppe
Mongolia (2,7 [sic] milioni di abitanti su superficie 5
volte l’Italia) importante partner per USA data la sua collocazione strategica
tra Russia e Cina, la quale è il principale mercato di sbocco (materie prime).
Rafforza il cerchio di “amici regionali con idee analoghe
che include USA, Jap e Sud Corea”).
Mongolia’s
‘Third Neighbor’
By CHRISTOPHER P. ATWOOD
November 21, 2005
ULAN BATOR — What is it about Mongolia that
makes it such a popular destination for American leaders visiting Asia? President
George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrive in Ulan Bator
today, barely a month after a similar trip by Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld.
Of course, visiting Mongolia is more fun than
the more usual trips to Beijing or Tokyo. Mr. Rumsfeld visited a yurt and was
given a horse as a gift, which he promptly named Montana. And the romance of
the Mongolian steppe and the legacy of Genghis Khan all but ensures plenty of
colorful press coverage.
But even fun needs justification and Mongolia
has earned its place on so many crowded itineraries because it combines the big
geo-strategic issues preoccupying Washington at present. For one thing it’s a
textbook example of the global trend toward democracy that the administration
is promoting — Mongolia earned kudos in the 1990s as Asia’s only successful
transition from Communism to a market economy. In addition, the country is
on the front line in dealing with the rise of China, and has been a faithful
ally in the war on terror.
Perhaps no other people in the world has
spent so many centuries thinking how to handle the Chinese as the Mongolians. Chinese
efforts to assimilate the Mongolians in the early 20th century left a legacy of
bitterness and suspicions which pushed Mongolia into the Russian orbit, where
it remained until the collapse of the Soviet bloc in the mid-1980s.
In the last five years, Mongolia has
become a supplier of choice for China’s ravenous appetite for copper, zinc,
iron, and even petroleum, fueling a booming mining economy. But Mongolians
still retain their East European-style consumer tastes and turn up their
noses at China’s supposedly shoddy imports. Optimists see their country as
playing Canada to a Chinese U.S.: a supplier of raw materials and a northern
wilderness vacation spot. However many more Mongolians worry about being so
dependent on their giant southern neighbor. And as China continues to rise,
Mongolia looks set to become one of the first test cases of whether small
countries can continue to thrive next to Asia’s emerging giant.
When it comes to the war on terror, Mongolia’s
steady support is a welcome contrast to street demonstrations that senior
members of the Bush administration often face during overseas visits. Mongolia’s
small army is being reconfigured as a peace-keeping force and five teams of
Mongolian soldiers, 130 men each, have done tours in southern Iraq, thus
far without casualties and without any talk of an early withdrawal. Mongolian
troops are also helping to keep the peace in Afghanistan.
What’s in this for Mongolia? Since winning
freedom for the stifling Soviet embrace, Mongolia’s foreign policy has
focused on cultivating good relations with a "third neighbor" to
balance ties with China and Russia. Economically and politically, that
means cultivating closer ties with the rest of the world. But militarily and
strategically, Mongolia is increasingly leaning very much toward a
geographically distant "third neighbor" — the U.S.
The challenge for both sides is to overcome
the geographic hurdles that risk limiting the U.S.-Mongolian relationship to
romantic images and high-level visits. Ironically, it is unplanned initiatives
that may be doing this most effectively. Due to a loophole in American trade
regulations, the U.S. looms surprisingly large in the Mongolian economy. Under
the old multi-fiber agreement that governed international textile trade,
Mongolia was exempt from any quota for imports into the U.S., so Chinese and
Hong Kong traders and businessmen set up assembly plants in Mongolia to do final
assembly of clothes destined for the American market. As a result, Mongolia’s
exports to the U.S., negligible in 1995, hit 20% of Mongolia’s total exports in
2000.
By 2004, Mongolia’s exports to the U.S.
had doubled in value again. But the end of these quotas at the start of this
year knocked Mongolia’s exports to the U.S. back to 2001 levels. So far, most
of Mongolia’s more than 30,000 textile workers have retained their jobs, as
investors bet that trade spats between China and the U.S. will continue, but
their future is uncertain.
People to people ties with America are
also increasing, particularly in that most unplanned of ways: illegal
immigration. Mongolian communities of up to several thousand strong now
exist in Washington, Denver, and Chicago, with smaller concentrations
elsewhere. Several Mongolian language weeklies are already published in the
U.S., filled with articles on immigration procedures and advertisements for
Mongolian real estate brokers — one-time nomads now selling tract homes in the
suburbs.
For almost a century, Mongolia has been
searching for independence, first and foremost from the limitation of her
geography. Since 1990, successive U.S. administrations have played an active
role in helping this people in the heart of Asia embrace market democracy. But
while both governments further their common interests and values, trade and
immigration are bringing ordinary Mongolians and Americans together as never
before.Mr. Atwood is a professor of Central Eurasian
Studies at Indiana University and author of "Encyclopedia of Mongolia and
the Mongol Empire" (Facts on File, 2004).
A Stop on the
Steppes
November 21, 2005; Page A16
Who would have guessed, as the Soviet Bloc
began collapsing 15 years ago, that one of the first countries to hold
multiparty elections and embrace capitalism would be the Mongolian People’s
Republic?
When President Bush lands in Ulan Bator
today, the first U.S. President to do so, he will be acknowledging Mongolia’s
continuing commitment to democracy and a market economy. Although America’s
National Endowment for Democracy, through its International Republican
Institute, offered advice during the transition from communism, credit largely
goes to the Mongolians themselves, who have endured some hard times in recent
years but remain determined to stay the course.
11/21/05Mr. Bush also wants to thank Mongolia
for supporting the war on terror, by keeping some 150 troops in Iraq and
Afghanistan. This is no small thing, in that it reflects a wider goal in
Ulan Bator that includes contributing to stability in Asia. With U.S. aid, Mongolia
is retraining its military in modern methods of international peacekeeping. But
its strategic location between China and Russia makes it an important partner
for Washington.
Not that Mongolia’s 2.7 million people
(and 10 times as many herd animals) want to do anything but be good neighbors. China
remains a major buyer of the country’s raw materials, including copper. As
Beijing’s ability to project military and political power grows, however,
Mongolia’s commitment to freedom and independence can only strengthen the
circle of like-minded regional friends that includes the U.S., Japan, and South
Korea.When Donald Rumsfeld stopped in Ulan Bator last
month, he was given a horse but had to leave it behind as there was no room on
the official plane home. Yet it is Mr. Rumsfeld’s all the same, a Mongolian
official said, and until the horse is claimed by its new owner, "only the
wind of the steppes will be on his back." What’s not to admire about a
country where they make promises like that?