Il mondo arabo dopo Bin Laden – Nonostante le grandi promesse, l’esordio del nuovo Egitto fa intravedere reali pericoli
– Le rivoluzioni riuscite in Tunisia ed Egitto, come pure le rivolte non ancora risolte in Siria, Yemen, Libia etc, appaiono sotto diversi aspetti come post-islamiste, e opposte ai principi del binladismo;
o non sono ossessionate da Usa o Israele, ma si pongono il problema di migliorare le condizioni interne dei loro paesi.
– Per il segretario americano alla Difesa, Gates, la Primavera araba avrebbe indebolito politicamente al-Qaeda.
– Il suo declino e la morte di Bin Laden non significano però la morte della sua ideologia e movimento, che i paesi musulmani si opporranno alla pressione dell’Islam politico; al-Qaeda ha già una base sicura in Yemen, e potrebbe conquistarsi altre basi nella regione, ad es. se la Libia collassa in un caos tipo Somalia.
– L’Egitto offre un’anteprima preoccupante di quanto potrebbe accadere:
o a tre mesi dalla caduta di Mubarak, il governo provvisorio ha attuato un cambiamento radicale della politica estera egiziana,
o facendo da mediatore su un accordo a sorpresa (che sarà siglato mercoledì al Cairo) per un governo di unità nazionale tra il gruppo terrorista Hamas, sostenuto da Tehran, al governo nella striscia di Gaza, e il rivale Fatah, nella West Bank.
o Il Cairo non ha informato dei negoziati né Usa, né Israele, il suo ministro Esteri ha improvvisamente annunciato che intende riaprire il confine con Gaza, facile punto di rifornimento di armi per Hamas.
o Il Cairo intende anche ristabilire le relazioni diplomatiche con l’Iran, che per la prima volta dalla Rivoluzione del 1979 ha avuto il permesso di far passare una sua nave da guerra per il canale di Suez.
– Hamas e la Fratellanza musulmana in Egitto hanno condannato l’uccisione di Bin Laden, definito da Hamas “santo guerrigliero arabo”.
L’accordo per un governo di unità per l’Autorità palestinese, riconosce un gruppo terrorista e la sua ideologia islamista.
Domenica scorsa Israele ha congelato $88 mn. di dazi dovuti all’Autorità, sbloccati ieri; se nasce il governo di unità palestinese,
– Israele potrebbe mettere in discussione gli accordi finanziari a riguardo, che assommano a circa $1MD/anno.
Gli Usa dovranno operare scelte difficili: riconsiderare il proprio sostegno ai militari egiziani, se mantengono il progetto di politica estera indipendente e l’avvicinamento ai terroristi.
The Muslim World After Bin Laden – Despite much promise, Egypt’s new start shows real perils ahead
– The killing of Osama bin Laden comes at a propitious moment in the history of the Middle East. The Arab Spring is remaking the region in ways not seen in generations. The best hope is that the Mideast will use this moment to take the region past the ideology of Islamist terror, but this can only happen if its new leaders take it there. On that score, the jury is out.
Certainly the wave of popular upheavals had already signalled al Qaeda’s waning appeal among Muslim masses.
Starting in Tunisia and spreading to Egypt, Syria and elsewhere, demonstrators have been energized by opposition to corruption and repression and a keen desire for jobs. Justice, modernity and democracy are very much earthly demands. As such, these movements contradict the aims of bin Laden and al Qaeda, whose goals are harsh and immovable regimes and a notion of freedom wholly at odds with these emerging Islamic societies.
– The successful revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt—as much as the unresolved risings in Syria, Yemen, Libya and elsewhere—are running against the grain of the tenets of bin Ladenism. These movements are, by most appearances, post-Islamist. They haven’t obsessed over America or Israel, but instead over how to improve their countries’ internal conditions.
– Secretary of Defense Robert Gates told us recently that he considers al Qaeda the big loser of the Arab Spring, "rendered irrelevant, at least in a political sense."
– Yet al Qaeda’s decline doesn’t mean Muslim countries will embrace a recognizable form of liberal democracy or resist the pull of politicized Islam. Egypt offers an unsettling preview of what could emerge.
– Less than three months after the fall of the Mubarak regime, the caretaker government in Cairo has surprised with its radical shifts in foreign policy.
o Egypt has extended its hand to Iran and to the Palestinian terror group Hamas. Its relations with the U.S. and Israel have cooled markedly.
Global View Columnist Bret Stephens and Matthew Kaminski of the editorial board forecast the impact of Osama Bin Laden’s death.
– Last week, the Egyptians brokered a surprising deal on a unity government between Tehran-backed Hamas in the Gaza strip and its rivals in Fatah, which rules over the West Bank. Cairo didn’t bother to inform either the U.S. or Israel about the talks. The foreign ministry abruptly announced plans to reopen the Egyptian border crossing into Gaza, an easy supply point for arms for Hamas.
– Cairo also plans to establish diplomatic relations with Iran. Indeed, an Iranian destroyer recently was allowed to pass through the Suez Canal for the first time since the 1979 Islamic revolution. Egypt’s military and political parties say they won’t tear up the peace treaty with Israel. Still, their body language isn’t hard to read.
– A budding Arab democracy that wants the world to take it seriously should have little time for Hamas, much less the world’s leading terror sponsor in Tehran. Hamas showed its true, if predictable, colors yesterday in its leader Ismail Haniyeh’s response to bin Laden’s killing: "We condemn the assassination and the killing of an Arab holy warrior." The Muslim Brotherhood, the best organized political group in Egypt, also condemned the bin Laden killing.
– The deal creating a unity government for the Palestinian Authority, due to be signed in Cairo tomorrow, empowers a terrorist group and its Islamist ideology.
– On Sunday, Israel froze a planned transfer of $88 million in customs revenues due to the Authority, but released it yesterday. If this unity government goes through, Israel would be in its rights to reconsider the funding arrangement. This is an annual transfer of about $1 billion. Who is going to believe some of that won’t find its way to Egypt’s new friends in Hamas, which pledges to destroy Israel?
– The U.S. most likely will face some tough choices here. If Cairo’s desire for a more "independent" foreign policy translates into warmer ties with terrorists, America’s own long-standing support for the Egyptian military may eventually need to be reconsidered. We trust that the U.S. has sent this blunt message to the ruling military council and to Egypt’s politicians.
– The death of bin Laden disrupts but doesn’t bring the death of bin Ladenism. Al Qaeda has a thriving franchise in Yemen and could gain other bases in the region—for example, if Libya collapses into Somalia-like disarray.
– While bin Laden’s death at least raises the possibility of the most extremist forms of Islam fading in the region, the early signs out of bellwether Egypt show how much close attention an interested world must still pay to these volatile nations.