Il futuro ministro delle Finanze Geithner – Ritorno alle radici
Memorandum politico– Rivista la “Rubinomic”
● Timothy Geither, nominato dal nuovo presidente americano Obama come 75° ministro delle Finanze USA, ha svolto un ruolo centrale nel salvataggio della banca di investimento Bear Stearns la scorsa primavera, e per il credito miliardario della Fed al gruppo assicurativo AIG.
– Reazione positiva della Borsa; Geithner, 47 anni, è presidente della Federal Reserve Bank di NY;
– Geithner ha studiato scienze orientali, conosce il cinese e il giapponese, ha vissuto in India, Cina, Tailandia e Giappone.
– Nella FED di NY è responsabile degli affari del sistema monetario sul mercato; dal 2003 è il “secondo uomo” dopo il presidente Ben Bernanke nel consiglio Fed; ha sempre il diritto di voto ed è escluso dalla rotazione, diversamente dai presidenti delle altre Fed regionali.
– Geithner, un pragmatico, ha studiato nelle università elitarie di Dartmouth e John Opktins; dal 2004 segue il neo presidente.
– A fine gennaio tornerà nella sede dove ha iniziato la sua carriera negli anni 1980, nel 1988-2001 segretario di Stato responsabile della politica economica internazionale, nel 1999-2001 con i ministri Finanze Robert Rubin e Lawrence Summers.
– Leithner è stato per due anni direttore della sezione politica dell’FMI, infine nominato nella FED.
– Nel primo periodo del suo incarico continuerà il salvataggio del sistema finanziario avviato dal predecessore Paulson, decidendo come utilizzare al meglio i restanti $410 MD dei $700MD del suo pacchetto, per il cui progetto originale è stato criticato; critica che viene ora smorzata dalle sue relazioni con la politica centrista dell’ex presidente Clinton, e del suo segretario al Tesoro, Robert Rubin.
– All’interno del partito Democratico l’ala filo-Rubin è stata a lungo in contrasto con l’ala liberale e sindacale, per la linea di bilancio in pareggio e di libero scambio; con la crisi e i piani di Obama a sostegno dell’economia, la frattura si è dissipata.
– Geithner sarebbe un indipendente, anche se era Repubblicano a fine anni 1980, quando entrò nello staff del Tesoro, presidenti Ronald Reagan, e George Bush. Dal 2003 presidente della Fed di NY; in questa veste aveva un seggio nel “Comitato federale per il mercato aperto”, che stabilisce i tassi di interesse a breve.
– Prima della crisi in corso è intervenuto per il salvataggio di Messico, Indonesia, Corea, Brasile, e Tailandia.
– Per due anni ha studiati i prodotti creditizi derivati, che hanno disseminato il rischio finanziario – il che era anche da lui considerato un fattore di maggiore stabilità per il sistema, anche se ancora da verificare – ma che poi con il restringimento del credito hanno contribuito ad acuire la crisi.
– Ad inizio 2008 ha lavorato con Bernanke per il salvataggio della Bear Stearns ($30MD); da settembre i due assieme a Paulson hanno diretto l’acquisizione da parte dello Stato di Fanni Mae e Freddie Mac, il salvataggio di American International Group e di diverse banche, e il progetto di un programma di aiuti di $700 MD.
– Geithner è coinvolto in errori come quello di lasciar fallire Lehman Brothers, cosa che per alcuni esperti ha destabilizzato il mercato scatenando la reazione a catena.
– Summers (53) dovrebbe andare a dirigere il National Economic Council, creato dal presidente Clinton, di cui è stato l’ultimo ministro delle Finanze, e poi presidente dell’università di Harvard. Dovrà occuparsi dell’attuazione del piano annunciato da Obama per la creazione di 2,5 mn. di posti di lavoro entro il 2011.
– Summers aveva contribuito alla risposta americana alla crisi finanziaria asiatica del 1997, e alla crisi messicana del 1995.
– Direttore per il bilancio federale sarà Peter Orszag; il deficit statunitense è salito dai $293MD del 2007 a $455 MD, pari al 3,2% del PIL; timori che possa giungere a $1MD, per il calo delle entrate e le spese aggiuntive di sostegno alla Finanza.
– La Germania lo può considerare Geithner lo un partner negoziale preparato, ma non arrogante.
– Il numero dei nuovi richiedenti il sussidio di disoccupazione negli USA è salito la scorsa settimana a 542mila, il maggiore da oltre 16 anni.
– Non specificate le misure del programma congiunturale di Obama, si prevedono facilitazioni fiscali per i redditi medio-bassi, investimenti nelle infrastrutture; l’aumento delle impose per i redditi più alti oltre i $250mila: rinviato al 2010.
– Robert Gibbs, direttore delle comunicazioni durante la campagna elettorale di Obama, è stato scelto come portavoce della Casa Bianca; proviene dall’Arkansas, è entrato nell’équipe di Obama durante la campagna per il senato nel 2004; era stato il portavoce di John Kerry durante la sua campagna elettorale.
– Come direttrice della comunicazione è stata scelta Elle Moran (nuova nella squadra di Obama, dirigeva un gruppo femminista vicino ai democratici della lista Emily), direttore aggiunto Dan Pfeiffer, che già direttore della comunicazione nella squadra di transizione. Moran aveva un incarico nell’AFL-CIO.
– [NYT] Con la squadra economica di Obama sta formandosi una “costellazione virtuale” di Rubin…
– Persino coloro che lo aiutano a creare la squadra sono legati a Rusin: Michael Froman, capo staff di Rubin al Tesoro, l’ha seguito poi in Citigroup; e James S. Rubin, figlio di Rubin.
– Geithner, Summers e Orszag perseguivano una formula economica chiamata Rubinomics: bilanci in pareggio, libero-scambio e deregolamentazione finanziaria, che avrebbe facilitato la prosperità degli anni 1990.
– I tempi sono cambiati: Rubin deve ora rispondere del suo ruolo di direttore di Citigroup, in crisi; Rubin e seguaci ora sollecitano una nuova formula per affrontare al crisi economica, abbandonando alcune delle loro ortodossie.
o Rubin aiutato da Summers spinse per l’eliminazione delle barriere di regolamenti tra banche, e gruppi di assicurazione e brokeraggio.
– La squadra di Obama aumenterà per due anni il debito federale per stimolare l’economia, senza badare al deficit, spendendo per i sussidi per i disoccupati, per riduzioni fiscali per i lavoratori, costruzione di infrastrutture per creare posti di lavoro; non revocherà neppure i tagli fiscali introdotti da Bush per i redditi sopra i $250mila.
Summers ha chiesto un consistente pacchetto di stimolo all’economia.
Künftiger Finanzminister Tim Geithner – Zurück zu den Wurzeln
Von Claus Tigges, Washington
– Die Börsianer verloren keine Zeit: Auf die Nachricht, Timothy (genannt Tim) Geithner solle im Kabinett von Barack Obama den Posten des Finanzministers übernehmen, reagierte Wall Street mit einem Kursfeuerwerk. Es war ein weiterer Beleg dafür, dass Geithner, der Präsident der einflussreichen Federal Reserve Bank von New York, unter den Finanzmarktakteuren einen ausgezeichneten Ruf genießt. Ihn hat sich der 47 Jahre alte Währungshüter vor allem in den zurückliegenden Monaten erworben, in denen er mit unermüdlichem Einsatz gegen die Finanzkrise und einen Kollaps des amerikanischen Finanzsystems gekämpft hat.
– Als Präsident der Fed von New York verantwortet Geithner die Geschäfte des Notenbanksystems am offenen Markt, mit deren Hilfe die geldpolitischen Beschlüsse umgesetzt und die Liquiditätssteuerung der Wirtschaft kontrolliert werden. Im geldpolitischen Rat der Fed, der vom Notenbankvorsitzenden Ben Bernanke geführt wird, ist Geithner seit 2003 der „zweite Mann“:
– Im Gegensatz zu den Präsidenten der übrigen regionalen Federal Reserve Banken ist Geithner stets stimmberechtigt und von der Rotation ausgenommen.
Ein Mann mit analytischer Schärfe
Es ist aber nicht nur diese herausgehobene Position, die dem an den Eliteuniversitäten Dartmouth und Johns Hopkins ausgebildeten Ökonomen den Ruf eingetragen hat, mit analytischer Schärfe und ideologisch unvoreingenommen an die Lösung schwierigster Probleme heranzugehen.
– Geithner hat eine zentrale Rolle gespielt in der Rettung der angeschlagenen Investmentbank Bear Stearns im Frühjahr dieses Jahres, und auch der Milliardenkredit der Fed an den Versicherungskonzern AIG wäre ohne sein Zutun wohl nicht zustande gekommen.
– Die zupackend pragmatische Arbeitsweise des Währungshüters mag Obama besonders beeindruckt und ihn zur Entscheidung gebracht haben, Geithner zum 75. Finanzminister der Vereinigten Staaten zu nominieren. Ende Januar könnte er dann an den Ort zurückkehren, an dem in den achtziger Jahren seine steile Karriere begonnen hat. Schnell war er im Ministerium aufgestiegen und hatte zuletzt zwischen 1999 und 2001 den Finanzministern Robert Rubin und Lawrence Summers als Staatssekretär gedient, zuständig für internationale Wirtschaftspolitik. Zwei Jahre lang arbeitete Geithner dann als Direktor der politischen Abteilung des Internationalen Währungsfonds, ehe er für den Fed-Posten nominiert wurde.
Geithner kann sofort übernehmen
Kaum hoch genug kann in diesen turbulenten Zeiten geschätzt werden, dass Geithner das Ruder von Finanzminister Henry Paulson von einem Tag auf den anderen übernehmen kann und sich nicht erst zurechtfinden muss. Einen Steinwurf vom Weißen Haus entfernt, wird Geithner seine Qualitäten als Krisenmanager schnell beweisen können.
– In den ersten Wochen und Monaten wird es wohl vor allem darum gehen, die von Paulson auf den Weg gebrachte Rettung des Finanzsystems fortzusetzen. Geithner wird dann zu entscheiden haben, wie jene Milliarden, die dann aus dem 700 Milliarden Dollar schweren Rettungspaket noch verblieben sein werden, am sinnvollsten ausgegeben werden sollen. Und er wird einen Plan entwerfen, wie das von Obama versprochene Konjunkturprogramm und eine zusätzliche Hilfe für die krisengeschüttelten amerikanische Autoindustrie in die Tat umgesetzt werden können.
– Aber Geithner wird auch die Gelegenheit haben, die Lehren aus der Krise zu ziehen und der notwendigen Neuordnung des regulatorischen Rahmens der Finanzmärkte seinen Stempel aufzudrücken. Das gilt nicht nur mit
– Blick auf Veränderungen in der nationalen Marktaufsicht und auf das Schicksal der kürzlich verstaatlichten Immobilienfinanzierer Freddie Mac und Fannie Mae, sondern auch im Zusammenhang mit Bemühungen der führenden Industrie- und Schwellenländer, ein globales Regelwerk für die Finanzmärkte zu schaffen. Deutschland und die übrigen Mitglieder der G 20 können sich darauf einstellen, in Geithner einen selbstbewussten aber keineswegs arroganten Verhandlungspartner zu bekommen. Als Währungshüter hat der Ökonom zuletzt deutlich gemacht, dass entschlossenes Handeln des Staates dann unerlässlich ist, wenn die Stabilität der gesamten Wirtschaft bedroht ist.
Geithner wird Finanzminister – Obama plant riesiges Konjunkturprogramm
Von Claus Tigges, Washington
– Der künftige amerikanische Präsident Barack Obama plant ein milliardenschweres Konjunkturprogramm zur Rettung oder Schaffung von rund 2,5 Millionen Arbeitsplätzen. In einer Radioansprache am Wochenende sagte Obama, die wirtschaftliche Lage erfordere „rasches und entschlossenes“ Handeln; andernfalls seien kommendes Jahr Millionen von Arbeitsplätzen bedroht.
– „Die Nachrichten der vergangenen Woche haben nur bestätigt, dass wir es mit einer Wirtschaftskrise historischen Ausmaßes zu tun haben.“ Obama nannte keine Details des geplanten Konjunkturpakets, versprach aber, es werde „groß genug sein, um die Herausforderungen zu bewältigen“. Die Zahl der Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenunterstützung ist vergangene Woche auf 542.000 geklettert, das höchste Niveau seit mehr als 16 Jahren.
Wie es im Umfeld des Demokraten hieß, will Obama ein auf zwei Jahre angelegtes Konjunkturprogramm nutzen, um einige seiner Wahlversprechen einzulösen. Das könnte sowohl die Steuererleichterungen für die mittleren und unteren Einkommensschichten als auch Investitionen in die Infrastruktur betreffen, beispielsweise den Bau von Straßen, Brücken und Schulen.
– Angesichts der schlechten Wirtschaftslage erwägt Obama offenbar, die Steuern für Spitzenverdiener mit Jahreseinkommen von mehr als 250.000 Dollar nicht sofort zu erhöhen, sondern sie wie vorgesehen mit dem Jahr 2010 auslaufen zu lassen.
Paket soll bald nach der Amtsübernahme in Kraft treten
– Der Kongress hatte die 2001 und 2003 auf Betreiben von Präsident George Bush ins Werk gesetzten Steuersenkungen aus haushaltspolitischen Gründen auf dieses Datum befristet. Bush und auch der in der Präsidentenwahl unterlegene John Mc- Cain plädieren dafür, sämtliche Steuererleichterungen dauerhaft zu gewähren. Teil des Programms zur Ankurbelung der Wirtschaft könnten darüber hinaus Anreize für Investitionen in erneuerbare Energiequellen und in den Bau sparsamerer Autos sein.
„Es gibt keine schnelle Lösung für diese Krise, die über Jahre entstanden ist. Und es wird vermutlich noch schlimmer, bevor es wieder besser wird“, warnte Obama. Das Paket, das vermutlich größer sein wird als das von ihm im Oktober geforderte Programm von 175 Milliarden Dollar, soll in den nächsten Wochen gemeinsam mit dem Kongress geschnürt werden und dann so schnell wie möglich nach der Amtsübernahme am 20. Januar 2009 in Kraft treten. Obama ging in seiner Ansprache nicht auf die angeschlagene Automobilindustrie ein, die vergangene Woche mit ihrer Bitte um zusätzliche Milliardenhilfe im Kongress gescheitert war. Der Demokrat hat allerdings mehrfach bekundet, den Autoherstellern helfen zu wollen.
Obama stellt am Montag sein Wirtschafts-Team vor
– An diesem Montag wird Obama seine Mannschaft für die Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik vorstellen. Am Freitag war schon bekanntgeworden, dass der Demokrat den Präsidenten der Notenbank in New York, Tim Geithner, für den Posten des Finanzministers nominieren wird. „Von seinem Naturell her und seiner Erfahrung ist er der richtige Mann“, sagte Obamas Berater David Axelrod am Sonntag dem Fernsehsender Fox.
– Der 47-jährige Geithner ist an der New Yorker Wall Street durch seine Tätigkeit bei der regionalen Fed gut bekannt. Von 1988 bis 2001 arbeitete er bereits im Finanzministerium und war unter anderem für internationale Beziehungen zuständig.
– Der frühere Finanzminister Larry Summers, der ebenfalls als möglicher Nachfolger von Henry Paulson genannt worden war, soll offenbar den nationalen Wirtschaftsrat im Weißen Haus führen. Das „National Economic Council“ wurde von Präsident Bill Clinton geschaffen und hat die Aufgabe, die Wirtschaftspolitik innerhalb der Regierung zu koordinieren. Summers war Clintons letzter Finanzminister und danach für einige Jahre Präsident der Eliteuniversität Harvard.
– Zum Haushaltsdirektor im Weißen Haus will Obama den bisherigen Vorsitzenden des Budgetbüros im Kongress, Peter Orszag, machen. Orszag wird für den Haushaltsplan der Regierung verantwortlich sein. Das Budgetdefizit ist im vergangenen Jahr (zum 30. September) um 293 Milliarden Dollar auf 455 Milliarden Dollar oder 3,2 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts geklettert.
– Einige Fachleute befürchten, sinkende Einnahmen wegen der schlechten Konjunktur und die zusätzlichen Ausgaben zur Rettung des Finanzsystems könnten das Defizit in diesem Jahr auf 1 Billion Dollar treiben. Obama hat kürzlich angekündigt, die Verringerung des Defizits und den Abbau der Staatsverschuldung angesichts der Wirtschaftskrise hinten anzustellen.
Obama nomme le prochain porte-parole de la Maison-Blanche
– Pour ce poste sensible et très exposé, le président élu a choisi un fidèle qui l’accompagne depuis 2004. Il devrait nommer lundi Timothy Geithner au Trésor et Lawrence Summers à la tête du Conseil national économique.
– Le président élu américain Barack Obama a nommé Robert Gibbs, son ancien directeur de communication pendant la campagne, porte-parole de la Maison Blanche, a annoncé samedi l’équipe de transition dans un communiqué.
– Brillant tacticien, M. Gibbs, 37 ans, a été pendant la longue et rude campagne présidentielle le directeur de la communication et le porte-parole de Barack Obama, qu’il a accompagné dans tous ses déplacements, mettant au point les stratégies de communication du candidat démocrate.
– Originaire de l’Arkansas (sud), Robert Gibbs avait rejoint l’équipe Obama pendant sa course au Sénat en 2004 et avait été la même année le porte-parole de John Kerry pendant sa campagne présidentielle malheureuse.
– M. Obama a également nommé Ellen Moran, directrice de la communication et Dan Pfeiffer, directeur de la communication adjoint. Nouvelle venue dans l’équipe Obama, Moran dirigeait jusqu’ici le groupe féministe proche des démocrates Emily’s List. Elle avait auparavant exercé des responsabilités au sein de l’AFL-CIO, le principal syndicat américain. Pfeiffer était déjà le directeur de la communication de l’équipe de transition et organisait les opérations de presse du sénateur de l’Illinois.
«Ces personnalités tiendront des rôles essentiels et la qualité de leur expérience pourra aider notre administration à apporter prospérité et sécurité au peuple américain», souligne le communiqué.
L’équipe économique d’Obama se précise également. Des membres de son équipe de transition ont expliqué qu’il allait nommer lundi matin Timothy Geithner, comme secrétaire américain au Trésor et Lawrence Summers, à la tête du Conseil national économique américain.
– Timothy Geithner, 47 ans, est l’actuel président de la Réserve fédérale de New York. Il a joué un rôle important dans les efforts engagés par le gouvernement Bush pour lutter contre la crise financière. Sa nomination, ébruitée vendredi, avait fait monter le cours du Dow Jones à New York de 6,54%, après plusieurs jours consécutifs de baisse.
– Lawrence Summers, 53 ans, a été secrétaire au Trésor dans l’administration Clinton et également président de l’Université de Harvard à une époque. Il devrait s’occuper de la mise en place du plan annoncé samedi par Barack Obama pour créer 2,5 millions d’emplois d’ici à janvier 2011. Il avait contribué à la réponse américaine face à la crise financière asiatique de 1997 et face à la crise financière mexicaine de 1995.
Quant au poste stratégique de secrétaire d’Etat, Hillary Clinton, candidate malheureuse à la candidature démocrate, aurait décidé d’abandonner son mandat de sénatrice pour l’accepter.
For Treasury, Geithner Said to Be Choice
WASHINGTON — President-elect Barack Obama will name Timothy F. Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to be his Treasury secretary, moving to fill a key post at a moment when the quavering financial markets are looking for reassurance about the direction of economic policy, people briefed about the decision said Friday.
– In picking Mr. Geithner, who has been at the center of efforts to contain the financial crisis, Mr. Obama passed over Lawrence H. Summers, who was Treasury secretary in the final year and a half of the Clinton administration.
– The president-elect might name Mr. Summers, a highly regarded economist and a former president of Harvard University, as a senior White House adviser, people involved in the transition said.
Word of Mr. Geithner’s selection helped drive stocks sharply higher on Friday afternoon as investors concluded that Mr. Obama was taking steps to fill a leadership vacuum at a time when the economy and financial markets are showing new signs of strain. The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 494 points, a 6.5 percent gain after days of dizzying declines.
With Congress having left town on Friday after doing little to address the deteriorating economy and President Bush opposing additional steps, Mr. Obama was under increasing pressure to signal his intentions and flesh out his team to deal with a crisis that now has financial institutions and automakers struggling to survive and that shows signs of deflation as fearful consumers quit spending. Mr. Obama is expected to announce his selection of Mr. Geithner, and perhaps other economic advisers, on Monday.
– David Kotok, chairman of the money-management firm Cumberland Advisors in Vineland, N.J., welcomed the news about Mr. Geithner in particular, but he attributed the market rally to relief that Mr. Obama seemed to have made a decision. “The most important thing for the market and for the economy is that these decisions are made and uncertainty is removed,” Mr. Kotok said. “It probably would have been the same rally had it been someone else on the short list.”
Mr. Obama said days after his election on Nov. 4 that he would try to name his economic and national security teams more quickly than past presidents-elect, given that the country is in a worsening recession and fighting two wars. The job of Treasury secretary, always one of the most prestigious in the cabinet, has gained outsize stature as the economy has continued to weaken and the Treasury secretary has been put in charge of a $700 billion financial bailout program.
– Mr. Geithner and Mr. Summers emerged quickly as the unlikely rivals for the post. Mr. Geithner once worked for Mr. Summers, who promoted the younger man at the Treasury Department when Mr. Summers was first deputy secretary and then secretary.
– Mr. Obama does not know either man well, but he knows Mr. Summers better because Mr. Summers was an occasional economic adviser during the presidential campaign and was named to Mr. Obama’s economic advisory board for the transition.
But people close to Mr. Obama say that he clicked with Mr. Geithner during a recent private meeting. The two men are the same age, 47, and Mr. Obama is closer temperamentally to the low-key and almost boyish Mr. Geithner than to the more tightly wound Mr. Summers. Mr. Summers, who will be 54 on Nov. 30, is universally described as brilliant, but is also renowned for being arrogant, occasionally rude and sometimes difficult to work with.
He left Harvard’s presidency after controversies that alienated faculty and women’s groups. Several feminist leaders in Washington said they had registered objections about Mr. Summers to the Obama team, but were not going all out to oppose him.
As a special White House adviser to Mr. Obama, however, Mr. Summers could have influence rivaling the Treasury secretary’s own. That would be doubly true if he were viewed as the nation’s next central banker: two Obama advisers say Mr. Summers would be the leading candidate to become the next Federal Reserve chairman should Mr. Obama choose not to reappoint Ben S. Bernanke when Mr. Bernanke’s term ends Jan. 31, 2010.
– In choosing Mr. Geithner, Mr. Obama would signal both a change at the Treasury Department and continuity in its economic rescue efforts. With the current Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., and Mr. Bernanke, Mr. Geithner — who as head of the New York Fed is the central bank’s eyes and ears on Wall Street — has been part of a troika that has struggled this year to contain the credit crisis.
“You can’t bring in a guy who needs on-the-job training,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard who once worked with Mr. Geithner at the International Monetary Fund.
– Along with Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke, Mr. Geithner has come under criticism for the original construction of the $700 billion bailout plan, which had to be overhauled and has so far failed to remedy the financial crisis.
– But his association with the current administration’s policies is balanced by his close connections to the centrist Democratic policies of President Bill Clinton and Mr. Clinton’s best-known Treasury secretary, Robert E. Rubin. Mr. Geithner served under Mr. Rubin as well as Mr. Summers at the Treasury Department in the 1990s, and rose to be under secretary for international affairs.
Rubin protégés in fact are likely to dominate the Obama economic team. In addition to Mr. Geithner and Mr. Summers, Mr. Obama is expected to name as his budget director Peter R. Orszag, a Clinton administration economist and Rubin ally who is now head of the Congressional Budget Office.
Michael Froman, Mr. Rubin’s former Treasury chief of staff and Mr. Obama’s classmate at Harvard Law School, is heading the economics personnel search for the transition. Mr. Froman’s head-hunting deputy is Mr. Rubin’s son, James Rubin.
– Paul Calello, chief executive of the investment bank at Credit Suisse, said Mr. Geithner “has the intellect, the experience and the ability to work across many constituencies that you need in that job. It’s also important to note that Tim has both the domestic and international experience that is going to be very important going forward.”
– The Rubin wing of the Democratic Party has long been disparaged by liberals and union[e] leaders as being too concerned with balanced budgets and free trade. But much of the ideological tension in the party has dissipated as the economy has weakened, and Mr. Obama has signaled that he intends to spend what it takes to get the economy back on track.
– Mr. Geithner also seems to fit Mr. Obama’s emphasis on “post-partisanship.” Associates say Mr. Geithner is an independent, though he was a Republican when he first was a staff member at the Treasury Department in the late 1980s under Presidents Ronald Reagan and George Bush. After college, he worked in the New York-based international consulting firm headed by Henry A. Kissinger.
– After leaving the Treasury Department, Mr. Geithner worked at the International Monetary Fund until he was hired in 2003 as president of the New York Fed.
– As the bank’s president, Mr. Geithner has had a seat on the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets short-term interest rates. He spent two years studying the complexities of the new credit derivatives that spread financial risk, but also exacerbated the economic downturn when the credit squeeze set in.
– “The fact that the banks are stronger and risk is spread more broadly should make the system more stable,” Mr. Geithner said in an interview in early 2007. “We can’t know that with certainty, though. We’ll have a test of that when things next threaten to fall apart.”
– The test began later that year as the housing credit crisis took hold. Working closely with Mr. Bernanke, Mr. Geithner early this year engineered the $30 billion bailout of Bear Stearns.
– Since September, the two of them and Mr. Paulson together have steered the government takeover of the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, bailouts of American International Group and a number of financial institutions, and the design of the $700 billion bailout program.
– Mr. Geithner has also had a part in some high-profile missteps, including the government’s decision to allow Lehman Brothers to fail; some experts say that destabilized markets and helped to spread the financial contagion globally.
“He knows better than almost anyone else the ins and outs of the bailout,” said Simon Johnson, a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “The question is, whether that’s an advantage or a disadvantage.”
– On the plus side, Mr. Johnson said Mr. Geithner could begin working with Mr. Paulson almost from the moment his appointment is announced on how to deploy the remaining $410 billion in the bailout fund.
“The markets will remain disrupted through Jan. 20 without some thoughtful government action,” said Todd Steinberg, head of equities and commodity derivatives at BNP Paribas Americas. “The naming of Geithner certainly increases the possibility of action for a couple of reasons: he is in the government in one of the most influential seats, and he is already actively in dialogue with the current administration’s decision makers.”
Ben White and Vikas Bajaj contributed reporting from New York, and Mark Landler from Washington.
By JACKIE CALMES
– It is testament to former Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin’s star power among many Democrats that as President-elect Barack Obama fills out his economic team, a virtual Rubin constellation is taking shape.
– The president-elect’s choices for his top economic advisers — Timothy F. Geithner as Treasury secretary, Lawrence H. Summers as senior White House economics adviser and Peter R. Orszag as budget director — are past protégés of Mr. Rubin, who held two of those jobs under President Bill Clinton.
– Even the headhunters for Mr. Obama have Rubin ties: Michael Froman, Mr. Rubin’s chief of staff in the Treasury Department who followed him to Citigroup, and James S. Rubin, Mr. Rubin’s son.
– All three advisers — whom Mr. Obama will officially name on Monday and Tuesday — have been followers of the economic formula that came to be called Rubinomics: balanced budgets, free trade and financial deregulation, a combination that was credited with fueling the prosperity of the 1990s.
– But times have changed since then. On Wall Street, Mr. Rubin is facing questions about his role as director of Citigroup given the bank’s current woes. And in Washington, he and his acolytes are calling for a new formulation to address the global economic crisis that Mr. Obama will inherit — and rejecting or setting aside, for now, some of their old orthodoxies.
– Instead of deregulation, Mr. Obama has sworn to usher in a period of re-regulation, to avoid the freewheeling risks that Citigroup and the rest of the financial industry undertook after Mr. Rubin, with Mr. Summers, helped tear down the regulatory walls between banks, brokerages and insurance companies, and freed them to trade in unregulated and little-understood derivatives worth trillions of dollars. Mr. Geithner spent his first years as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York seeking ways to at least monitor those markets better.
– Instead of balancing budgets, the Obama team will be going deeper into debt for at least two years by spending hundreds of billions of dollars more to stimulate the economy, without concern for deficits, for aid to the jobless, states and cities; tax cuts for workers; and job-creating construction of roads, schools and other public works. Nor, given the downturn, is Mr. Obama expected to try to quickly bring in more revenue by repealing the Bush tax cuts for those making more than $250,000.
– Mr. Summers, who may well end up being Mr. Obama’s closest economic adviser, has been especially public in calling for a big stimulus package. Many saw his touch in Mr. Obama’s call this weekend for the stimulus plan to create or save 2.5 million jobs.
“Everyone recognizes that we’re looking at deficits of considerable magnitude,” said Jared Bernstein, an economist at the liberal Economic Policy Institute. “Whether it’s Bob Rubin, Larry Summers or the most conservative economist, that is a widely shared recognition.”
Liberals like Mr. Bernstein had long had an aversion to the kind of centrist economic policies of the Clinton years, which they felt were too concerned with deficit reduction and not focused enough on investment programs for labor and the middle class.
– But Mr. Bernstein’s past differences with Mr. Rubin have so softened that the two men recently wrote a column together about their new common ground on spending, regulation and trade protections for workers.
– As for Mr. Summers, he has “truly evolved,” Mr. Bernstein said, based on his reading of Mr. Summers’s columns in the Financial Times this year. Both men have been advisers to Mr. Obama, and at a recent meeting, Mr. Bernstein recalled: “I told him, ‘Boy, Larry, your views on trade, on income inequality, on stimulus spending, they’re approaching ours at E.P.I.’ And he sort of huffed and puffed, and said, ‘Oh well, changing circumstances.’ ”
Yet Rubin critics remain, mostly in Mr. Obama’s own Democratic Party among liberals and union[e] members who favor even more domestic spending and more protectionist trade policies.
“What worries me is there is not one person in the senior group who is the outsider to this club,” said Robert Kuttner, a colleague of Mr. Bernstein’s at the liberal Economic Policy Institute who has written a book, “Obama’s Challenge,” about approaches to the economic crisis. “Where is the diversity of opinion in this economic team?” Mr. Kuttner asked.
Yet even Mr. Kuttner has warmed to some he calls Rubinistas. He praises Mr. Geithner for not hailing from a Wall Street investment bank and for being “among the toughest on the need to re-regulate” the financial industry from his perch at the New York Federal Reserve.
Mr. Kuttner calls Mr. Summers brilliant and notes that he has been out front in proposing big stimulus spending. But he disapprovingly noted that in recent meetings of economists advising Congressional Democrats, Mr. Summers has argued against restricting banks’ ability to issue dividends to stockholders as a condition of receiving federal bailout money.
– By all accounts, the trait that ties the 70-year-old Mr. Rubin and the younger men is their braininess. All but Mr. Summers are seen as cautious about policy. And all but Mr. Summers share their mentor’s low-key affability and conversational ease; many wonder just how Mr. Summers, whose brusque ways left a trail of enemies when he was president of Harvard, will perform as director of the National Economic Council in the White House when the job demands someone who can coordinate with others, listen to them and fairly represent their views to the president.
“There’s no way he will be confined to the N.E.C.’s turf; he will be sticking his nose into everything,” said Bruce Bartlett, a Treasury veteran of the Reagan administration and a Summers admirer. “Personally, I think that’s more good than bad.”
– Mr. Rubin used to recall privately that when he led the National Economic Council, his White House office gave him easy access to the president as well as to Hillary Rodham Clinton, then the first lady — and in turn, influence. Mr. Summers is sure to use his proximity to the Oval Office to the same end, past associates agree.
– That could mean tensions between him and Mr. Geithner, 47, who was Mr. Summer’s only rival for another stint as Treasury secretary under Mr. Obama. Yet people who know both men say they got along well at the Treasury Department in the 1990s. It was Mr. Summers, as Mr. Rubin’s deputy secretary, who first mentored Mr. Geithner and later promoted him to be under secretary for international affairs.
– Mr. Rubin, also an adviser to Mr. Obama, supported both men but privately favored giving Mr. Summers, who turns 54 this month, a second chance. Mr. Rubin has long been invested in promoting Mr. Summers, vouching for him against those who object to his personality. He endorsed Mr. Summers to be his successor as Treasury secretary.
As a member of the Harvard University board, Mr. Rubin next helped Mr. Summers become university president. When Mr. Summers became embroiled in controversies with faculty and some women’s groups and African-Americans over his perceived insensitivity, Mr. Rubin lobbied on his behalf. He was unsuccessful, and Mr. Summers was forced to resign.
The Harvard controversies were a factor in Mr. Obama’s consideration of Mr. Summers for Treasury secretary. Leaders of several women’s groups said they warned Obama advisers that a 2005 furor over remarks that some interpreted as Mr. Summers questioning women’s intelligence in math and science relative to men’s, would be revived if he were nominated. The Treasury post requires Senate confirmation; the National Economic Council director does not.
Yet Kim Gandy, president of the National Organization for Women, said her group’s research actually produced material that recommended him. “One good thing about Larry Summers,” she said, “is that he has written and spoken fairly extensively on the issue of women’s wage inequality and the impact that has on the country.”
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Because of an editing error, a Political Memo article on Monday about President-elect Barack Obama’s reliance on past protégés of Robert E. Rubin, a top economics official in the Clinton administration, misstated the middle initial of Mr. Rubin’s son who is on Mr. Obama’s economics transition team. He is James S. Rubin, not P.