Siria, Usa, Russia, Sauditi
+ Wsj, 21.10.’13: Il capo dello spionaggio prende le distanze dagli Usa
– L’improvviso cambio di rotta americano sull’intervento militare in Siria, che con l’accordo con la Russia rafforza la posizione di Assad concedendogli di consegnare le armi chimici a metà 2014, cioè di fatto lasciandolo al suo posto
– ha irritato la Turchia, ed è una sconfitta per i sauditi, per i quali la guerra in Siria è una guerra per procura contro il rivale Iran, da anni stretto alleato del regime siriano.
– L’Arabia Saudita, per protesta, ha rifiutato di assumere il seggio non permanente al CdS ONU, ottenuto dopo un anno di sforzi diplomatici e milioni di $. La motivazione ufficiale è la mancata soluzione del conflitto israelo-palestinese e l’inerzia dell’Onu in Siria;
– la tensione tra sauditi e Usa, già forte negli ultimi mesi, è accresciuta dalle dichiarazioni del capo dei servizi segreti sauditi, principe Bandar Bin Sultan al-Saud, che ha esplicitamente spiegato ai diplomatici europei e al Wsj, che è un messaggio agli Usa e non all’Onu: l’Arabia Saudita dovrebbe ridurre la collaborazione con gli Usa, e preferire quella con altri partner come Giordania e Francia; ha parlato anche di riflessi sulle relazioni commerciali con gli Usa, per i quali l’Arabia Saudita è un importante mercato per gli armamenti e fornitore di petrolio. È da vedere se le dichiarazioni di Bandar sono solo un tentativo di far pressione sul re Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al Saud o se ne riflettono la posizione.
– Non si sa come continuerà il sostegno ai ribelli, dopo l’accordo russo-americano. Le dichiarazioni di Bandar significano: continuiamo anche senza di voi.
– Come capo dei servizi, assieme agli Usa Bandar è responsabile del sostegno fornito ai ribelli siriani; nel 2012 i sauditi hanno iniziato a dare armi ai ribelli e ad addestrarli i ribelli in Giordania, assieme a americani e francesi. Bandar ritiene probabilmente insufficienti le forniture di armi da parte degli Usa.
– Altro motivo di irritazione per i sauditi è l’avvicinamento degli Usa all’Iran e il sostegno ad Israele.
– Sono emersi due precedenti episodi di tensione tra sauditi e americani, durante la fase di discussione sull’intervento militare in Siria:
– 1. gli americani hanno detto ai sauditi che le loro navi non avrebbero potuto proteggere del tutto i campi petroliferi della Provincia Orientale; i sauditi hanno risposto che avrebbero cercato alleati alternativi, e di acquistare armi a buon prezzo,
– 2. i sauditi hanno chiesto agli americani ma non hanno ottenuto di conoscere gli obiettivi militari degli attacchi previsti.
– Funzionari americani hanno assicurato che viene mantenuta la cooperazione per la sicurezza con I sauditi.
– Il piano russo-americano si inserisce bene nel programma di Assad, che prevede elezioni presidenziali a maggio o giugno 2014, anche se ci sarà ancora la guerra e il voto sarà impossibile per molte persone.
– La Turchia ha subito annunciato l’acquisto di armi dalla Cina, uno schiaffo a Obama.
22. Oktober 2013, 15:32 Uhr
Saudi-Arabien – Obamas Syrien-Kurswechsel erzürnt König Abdallah
Von Raniah Salloum
– Saudi-Arabiens König ist wütend über den Syrien-Kurswechsel der USA. Einen Sitz im Uno-Sicherheitsrat hat Riad deshalb beleidigt abgelehnt. Der saudi-arabische Geheimdienstchef kündigt jetzt eine engere Zusammenarbeit mit Frankreich an.
Berlin – Es war eine überraschende und recht freche Absage: Ein Jahr lang hatte Saudi-Arabien mehrere Diplomaten und Millionen Dollar eingesetzt, einen nicht-ständigen Sitz im Uno-Sicherheitsrat zu bekommen, trotz des Widerstandes von Menschenrechtlern. Als es dann vergangene Woche soweit war, verzichteten die Herrscher in Riad plötzlich.
– Als Begründung veröffentlichte das saudi-arabische Außenministerium eine etwas seltsame Erklärung, in der vom ungelösten israelisch-palästinensischen Konflikt die Rede war – als sei dies den Saudis erst jetzt aufgefallen, und von der "Tatenlosigkeit" des Sicherheitsrats im syrischen Bürgerkrieg. Das klang schon eher wahrscheinlich.
König Abdallah, der mächtigste Mann Saudi-Arabiens, hat den Ruf, zu Wutausbrüchen zu neigen, wenn er nicht bekommt, was er will.
– Bei der Krise in Syrien musste er dies zuletzt besonders erleben: Nachdem Barack Obama im September erst tagelang seine Verbündeten, darunter auch Saudi-Arabien, Frankreich und die Türkei, auf einen amerikanischen Raketenangriff gegen Baschar al-Assad eingeschworen hatte, machte er in der allerletzten Minute eine Kehrtwende. Die Verbündeten des US-Präsidenten hatten das Nachsehen.
– Saudi-Arabien ist über den Kurswechsel Obamas wütend, weil sie Assads Position festigt: Indem die USA und Russland sich darauf einigten, dass der Diktator bis Mitte 2014 seine Chemiewaffen abgeben muss, machen sie auch klar, dass der Präsident bis mindestens zu diesem Zeitpunkt der wichtigste Mann Syriens bleibt.
– Das amerikanisch-russische Vorhaben passt zudem in den Zeitplan Assads. Immer wieder hat er signalisiert, dass Damaskus wie vorgesehen im Mai oder Juni 2014 die nächsten Präsidentschaftswahlen abhalten werde.
– Dabei ist es egal, dass in Syrien wohl auch dann noch ein Krieg toben wird, der für viele ein Votum unmöglich machen wird. Auch in der Vergangenheit hat es Assad nicht sonderlich gestört, dass viele Syrer nicht wählen gehen, weil die Abstimmung weder frei noch fair ist. Der Staatschef wird am Ende sowieso mit dem phänomenalen Ergebnis von knapp 100 Prozent bestätigt.
Für Riad bedeutet die amerikanische Syrien-Politik eine Niederlage
– Wie groß die Wut der vorgeführten Verbündeten ist, ließ sich bisher nur erahnen: Die Türkei kündigte kurz nach Obamas Entscheidung an, Waffen von den Chinesen einkaufen zu wollen – eine Ohrfeige für den US-Präsidenten.
– Dass der Kurswechsel Obamas auch die Saudis zutiefst irritiert hat, zeigt jetzt die heftige Reaktion des Königs. Denn dass der Verzicht auf einen Sitz im Sicherheitsrat eine Trotzreaktion in Richtung Washington war, stellte nun Prinz Bandar, der Geheimdienstchef der Saudis, noch einmal klar. "Das war eine Botschaft an die USA, nicht an die Uno", erklärte Bandar europäischen Diplomaten, wie die US-Zeitung "Wall Street Journal" berichtete. Die Zusammenarbeit mit Washington solle zurückgefahren werden, kündigte der Prinz an. Stattdessen werde Saudi-Arabien in Zukunft lieber mit anderen Partnern wie Jordanien und Frankreich enger zusammenarbeiten.
– Neben dem Syrien-Kurswechsel sei Riad auch über Washingtons vorsichtige Annäherung an den saudi-arabischen Rivalen Iran und die anhaltende US-Unterstützung für Israel erbost, sagte Bandar den Diplomaten, so die Nachrichtenagentur Reuters. Sogar ein saudi-arabisches "Abrücken von den USA" soll der Geheimdienstchef in Aussicht gestellt haben und einen "Einfluss auf die Handelsbeziehungen" beider Länder. Für Washington ist Saudi-Arabien ein wichtiger Waffen-Absatzmarkt und Öllieferant.
Der Geheimdienstchef fürchtet um die Hilfe für Syriens Rebellen
– Inwiefern diese Äußerungen tatsächliche Absichten der Saudis widerspiegeln oder leere Drohungen sind, muss sich zeigen. Prinz Bandar ist zwar eine einflussreiche Person, doch letztendlich entscheidet der König. Ob der Geheimdienstchef seine Aussagen vorher mit diesem abgesprochen hat oder hofft, den erbosten Monarchen in diese Richtung drängen zu können, ist unklar.
– Als Geheimdienstchef ist Prinz Bandar für die Unterstützung der syrischen Rebellen zuständig gemeinsam mit den USA. Als solcher ärgert er sich schon länger über Obamas Zögerlichkeit.
– Saudi-Arabien hatte 2012 mit vereinzelten Waffenlieferungen an Rebellengruppen begonnen sowie mit Trainingslagern in Jordanien zusammen mit den Amerikanern und Franzosen. Washington scheint seine vielfach angekündigten Waffenlieferungen kaum je geliefert zu haben und blieb unter den Erwartungen von Prinz Bandar.
– Wie es nach der russisch-amerikanischen Einigung mit der Hilfe für die Assad-Gegner weitergehen soll, ist unklar. Prinz Bandars Aussagen kommen da einer unverhohlenen Drohung an Washington gleich: Wir machen weiter, im Zweifelsfall auch ohne euch.
– Für die Saudis ist die russisch-amerikanische Einigung eine bittere Niederlage. Riad sieht den Machtkampf in Syrien als Stellvertreterkrieg mit seinem Rivalen Iran, der ein langjähriger und enger Verbündeter des syrischen Regimes ist. Teheran hat seine Unterstützung für Assad mit Beginn der Aufstände noch einmal kräftig ausgeweitet.
By Ellen Knickmeyer
Updated Oct. 21, 2013 10:56 p.m. ET
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia—Saudi Arabia’s intelligence chief told European diplomats this weekend that he plans to scale back cooperating with the U.S. to arm and train Syrian rebels in protest of Washington’s policy in the region, participants in the meeting said.
– Prince Bandar Bin Sultan al-Saud’s move increases tensions in a growing dispute between the U.S. and one of its closest Arab allies over Syria, Iran and Egypt policies. It follows Saudi Arabia’s surprise decision on Friday to renounce a seat on the United Nations Security Council.
– The Saudi government, after preparing and campaigning for the seat for a year, cited what it said was the council’s ineffectiveness in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian and Syrian conflicts.
– Diplomats here said Prince Bandar, who is leading the kingdom’s efforts to fund, train and arm rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, invited a Western diplomat to the Saudi Red Sea city of Jeddah over the weekend to voice Riyadh’s frustration with the Obama administration and its regional policies, including the decision not to bomb Syria in response to its alleged use of chemical weapons in August.
– "This was a message for the U.S., not the U.N.," Prince Bandar was quoted by diplomats as specifying of Saudi Arabia’s decision to walk away from the Security Council membership.
– Top decisions in Saudi Arabia come from the king, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al Saud, and it isn’t known if Prince Bandar’s reported remarks reflected a decision by the monarch, or an effort by Prince Bandar to influence the king. However, the diplomats said, Prince Bandar told them he intends to roll back a partnership with the U.S. in which the Central Intelligence Agency and other nations’ security bodies have covertly helped train Syrian rebels to fight Mr. Assad, Prince Bandar said, according to the diplomats. Saudi Arabia would work with other allies instead in that effort, including Jordan and France, the prince was quoted as saying.
– U.S. officials said they interpreted Prince Bandar’s message to the Western diplomat as an expression of discontent designed to push the U.S. in a different direction. "Obviously he wants us to do more," said a senior U.S. official.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met in Paris on Monday with Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al Faisal. Officials familiar with the meeting said Mr. Kerry urged the Saudis to reconsider their U.N. decision but said Prince Saud didn’t raise Prince Bandar’s concerns. Officials said this may suggest that there are divisions within the monarchy about how to pressure the U.S. to play a more hands-on role.
The U.S., fearing arms will wind up in the hands of al Qaeda and other extremist factions in Syria, has advocated a cautious approach in strengthening the moderate opposition in Syria, frustrating key allies, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Saudi officials say they, too, are concerned about arming extremists in Syria and are working only with moderate rebel factions.
– Tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have grown sharply in recent months. President Barack Obama authorized the CIA to provide limited quantities of arms to carefully vetted Syrian rebels, but it took months for the program to commence. In July, the Saudis undercut the U.S. by backing the Egyptian military’s overthrow of that country’s democratically elected president.
The monarchy was particularly angered by Mr. Obama’s decision to scrap plans to bomb Syria in response to the alleged chemical-weapons attack in August and, more recently, tentative overtures between Mr. Obama and Iran’s new president.
– Diplomats and officials familiar with events recounted two previously undisclosed episodes during the buildup to the aborted Western strike on Syria that allegedly further unsettled the Saudi-U.S. relationship.
– In the run-up to the expected U.S. strikes, Saudi leaders asked for detailed U.S. plans for posting Navy ships to guard the Saudi oil center, the Eastern Province, during any strike on Syria, an official familiar with that discussion said. The Saudis were surprised when the Americans told them U.S. ships wouldn’t be able to fully protect the oil region, the official said.
Disappointed, the Saudis told the U.S. that they were open to alternatives to their long-standing defense partnership, emphasizing that they would look for good weapons at good prices, whatever the source, the official said.
– In the second episode, one Western diplomat described Saudi Arabia as eager to be a military partner in what was to have been the U.S.-led military strikes on Syria. As part of that, the Saudis asked to be given the list of military targets for the proposed strikes. The Saudis indicated they never got the information, the diplomat said.
– A senior American defense official said the U.S. remains "fully committed to security cooperation" with Saudi Arabia and continues to work with the Kingdom to plan for various security contingencies.
"Suggestions that we would not fully support the Kingdom in a time of crisis are entirely inaccurate," the official said.
"The Saudis are very upset. They don’t know where the Americans want to go," said a senior European diplomat not in Riyadh.
"The United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have a long-standing partnership and consult closely on issues of mutual interest, including preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, countering terrorism, ensuring stable and reliable energy supplies, and promoting regional security," said White House National Security Council spokeswoman Bernadette Meehan.
A senior administration official said the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have a "strong and stable relationship" on core national-security issues.
"While we do not agree on every issue, when we have different perspectives we have honest and open discussions," the senior administration official said.
In Washington in recent days, Saudi officials have privately complained to U.S. lawmakers that they increasingly feel cut out of U.S. decision-making on Syria and Iran. A senior American official described the king as "angry."
Another senior U.S. official added: "Our interests increasingly don’t align."
As of Monday in New York, however, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon hadn’t yet received the formal notice from Saudi Arabia that would make official its renunciation of the Security Council seat. Some analysts and diplomats saw that as an opening for Saudi Arabia to be persuaded to take the seat, and to mend the split with the U.S. and the U.N. that the renunciation implied.
Diplomats said Prince Bandar conveyed in the weekend session that scheduled meetings in Paris on Monday and Tuesday involving Mr. Kerry, Prince Saud and ministers of other nations backing Syria’s armed opposition would be a crucial opportunity for the U.S. to mend relations with Saudi Arabia, the world’s oil power and Washington’s main Arab ally in the Middle East.
In particular, Saudi Arabia wants to see the U.S. or U.N. come up with a more-effective plan of action for helping rebels overthrow Mr. Assad, and end the Syrian war, one Western diplomat said.
China and Russia, Security Council members and allies of Syria, have helped block any U.N. action that could support military action against the president.
In the Syria conflict, Iran and Tehran-backed Hezbollah militias are supporting Mr. Assad’s regime against rebels backed by Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations and private donors, and less actively by some Western nations.
– Saudi Arabia regards defeating Mr. Assad’s regime as essential to its interests because of the involvement of Shiite Muslim Iran in the Syrian conflict. Saudi officials long have accused Iran of trying to exploit Shiite populations in Arab countries across the region to try to undermine Sunni Muslim governments and their interests. Saudi Arabia has its own Shiite minority.
Saudi officials are suspicious of recent overtures toward the U.S. by Iranian President Hasan Rouhani, fearing that Iran aims only to have international sanctions against it lifted while secretly continuing a nuclear program that earned the sanctions, diplomats said.
—Adam Entous, Julian E. Barnes and Jay Solomon in Washington
and Joe Lauria at the United Nations contributed to this article.