I nemici dell’Iran stanno accerchiandolo

●    Fino a che permangono tensioni in Iran, debbono essere rinviati i negoziati Usa- Iran.

●    Al contrario per l’alleanza di recente formata tra:

o   People’s Mujahideen of Iran (MKO), organizzazione militante islamica che vuole abbattere il governo;

o   Iranian Jundallah, gruppo sunnita anti-Tehran, che ha sede nel Belucistan pakistano;[1]

o   la mafia regionale della droga;

o   e guidata da Al-Qaeda, con l’obiettivo di destabilizzare la regione,

●    il fermento scatenato in Iran dalla vittoria di Ahmadinejad e dalla reazione suscitata nei sostenitori del riformista Moussavi rappresenta un’occasione d’oro per destabilizzare l’Iran.

L’MKO potrebbe riprendere forza nella provincia iraniana di Sistan e Belucistan, dopo un declino seguito all’invasione USA dell’Irak, dove Saddam Hussein aveva dato loro rifugio.

– Jundallah, si è invece rafforzata ed ha di recente stretto alleanza con al-Qaeda e MKO. Dietro attacchi terroristici in Iran c’è Jundallah dell’uomo d’affari Abdul Malik Rigi, accusato di essere uno strumento dei servizi americani per destabilizzare l’Iran;

– secondo Abdul Haq Hashmi, presidente del partito Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan della provincia del Belucistan, Rigi non rappresenterebbe i sunniti dei beluci iraniani sarebbe legato alla mafia della droga, da lui protetta contro le forze di sicurezza iraniane e utilizzata per tentare una rivolta a Zahedan, dove è stata attaccata una moschea sciita, 25 le vittime.

– Non ci sarebbe una importante divisione su base etnica o settaria in Iran, in caso contrario il più grande seminario sunnita Darul Uloom Zahedan non sarebbe il maggior sostenitore del governo iraniano.

– In ogni caso Rigi ha promosso scontri settari in Iran, e questo favorisce la destabilizzazione desiderata dagli USA.

– Da indagini Asia Times, Rigi dopo essere fuggito e rimasto senza finanziamenti, alcuni mesi fa si è unito ad un gruppo di pakistano, il Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, anti-sciita, che ha basi nell’area tribale del Sud Waziristan, ai confini con l’Afghanistan. Un uso leader ha fatto incontrare il Jundallah di Rigi con al-Qaeda, da cui riceve nuovi finanziamenti; risultato immediato è stato l’attacco alla moschea di Zahedan.

– La sua alleanza con l’MKO iraniana gli fornisce altri guerriglieri, come già Lashkar, che fornisce anche armi e munizioni, e competenze per lanciare operazioni in Iran, e far riprendere le rivolte nelle regioni del Belucistan iraniano.

Dalla radio di Stato iraniana: otto persone uccise a Tehran durante le proteste con decine di migliaia di manifestanti, le maggiori proteste dalla rivoluzione iraniana del 1979.

– I tumulti, che hanno messo in luce le divisioni interne all’Iran, giungono in una fase critica per l’Amministrazione americana di Obama, che ha bisogno dell’Iran per ritirare i soldati americani dall’Irak, e per la situazione in deterioramento in Afghanistan e Pakistan.

o   Gli Usa vogliono far passare i rifornimenti non-militari della Nato verso l’Afghanistan per il porto iraniano di Chabahar, dato che la rotta attraverso il Pakistan è sotto attacco, che la situazione sta peggiorando nella provincia della Frontiera del N-O, e nelle aree tribali ci sono scontri con i guerriglieri.

Se l’Iran dovesse venire troppo coinvolto in questa nuova “guerra anti-terrorista”, potrebbe cercare protezione presso gli USA, in cambio di compromessi, ad es. sulle armi nucleari.

Jun 17, 2009

Iran’s enemies are circling

By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI – The controversial re-election at the weekend of hardline President Mahmud Ahmadinejad to a second four-year term raises a cloud over United States President Barack Obama’s hopes of engaging Iran in serious negotiations.

–   For a recently activated nexus, though, Ahmadinejad’s unexpected thumping victory and the intense reaction it has aroused among supporters of the main losing candidate, reformist Mir Hossein Mousavi, provide a golden opportunity for renewed efforts to destabilize Iran.

–   The nexus includes the People’s Mujahideen of Iran (MKO), a militant Islamic organization that advocates the overthrow of the government; the Pakistani-based Iranian Jundallah, a Sunni group opposed to Tehran; the regional drug mafia and al-Qaeda.

–   Iranian state radio reported on Tuesday that eight people had been killed during Monday’s protests in Tehran after tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets. The reports said the deaths came after "thugs" attacked a military post. The mass protests in the capital were the biggest since the Iranian revolution in 1979.

–   Even though Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called for an inquiry into allegations of vote-rigging – there is going to be a recount – the unrest is likely to continue as it is highly improbable the result will be reversed.

–   "The turmoil is unprecedented and has indeed manifested the divisions in Iran," commented Pakistani Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed in a television interview. Mushahid, an expert on Iran and an enthusiastic supporter of the revolution, is known for keeping close contact with the government in Tehran.

–   The troubles in Iran come at a critical juncture for the Barack Obama administration in the United States, which has pledged better relations with Iran – a country that for years has been vilified by successive US governments, especially by the George W Bush administration, which accused Tehran of having a nuclear weapons program.

State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said on Monday, "We are in a position of still assessing what went on, and it’s difficult to assess, because there weren’t any international monitors at the elections. He added that Washington was "deeply troubled by the reports of violence, arrests and possible voting irregularities".

–   The crux, though, is that Obama’s policy of engagement requires that he deal with Iran – indeed, he needs the country with regards to the US’s withdrawal of forces from Iraq, and the rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

–   With regard to the latter, the US wants the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s non-military supplies to pass through Iran’s Chabahar port on the way to Afghanistan as the route through Pakistan is increasingly under attack as the situation deteriorates in North-West Frontier Province and the tribal areas where Pakistani security forces are in fierce battle with militants.

For the time being, these issues between Washington and Tehran will likely remain on the backburner until tension eases in Iran. For others, the simmering situation presents immediate opportunities.

–   The current turmoil could give the MKO in Iran’s Sistan and Balochistan province a boost. Over the past few years, the armed opposition group has lost a lot of its momentum, although it has killed hundreds of Iranian soldiers in its decades-long struggle against the government.

–   The decline began with the US-led invasion in 2003 of Iraq, where Saddam Hussein had provided the MKO with sanctuary.

–   At the same time, Jundallah, an insurgent Sunni Islamic organization based in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, has gained in strength, and recently it formed a loose alliance with al-Qaeda and the MKO.

–   Businessman Abdul Malik Rigi’s Jundallah is behind several acts of terror in Iran, including the May 28 bomb attack on a Shi’ite mosque in the city of Zahedan that killed 25 people killed and injured 125. Rigi has been accused of being a proxy for US intelligence to destabilize Iran, although no hard evidence has emerged.

–   Abdul Haq Hashmi, the president for Balochistan province of the religious party the Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan, commented to Asia Times Online, "I can assure you through my contacts that Rigi worked in close coordination with the regional drug mafia, which was being given a tough time by the Iranian security forces. They were looking for some protection, and Rigi emerged and then tried to launch an insurgency in Zahedan."

–   Hashmi, a graduate of the Salafi Islamic University of Medina, Saudi Arabia, continued, "Rigi is not at all the representative of the Sunnis of Iran’s Baloch population. Iranian Sunnis are as much in tune with the Iranian government as the Shi’ites. Neither is there any major ethnic rift or sectarian rift. Had that been the case, the largest Islamic seminary of Sunni orientation would not be the biggest supporter of the Iranian government. That seminary is Darul Uloom Zahedan, and its chairman, Maulana Abdul Hameed, is strictly behind the government.

"I don’t know whether Rigi is an American proxy, but he did carry out sectarian violence in Iran. Whether he instigates Sunnis for insurgency or simply kills Shi’ites, in either case sectarian tension is escalated and it is a chance for Americans to destabilize Iran’s revolutionary government," Hashmi said.

–   Asia Times Online investigations indicate that Rigi had been on the run for some time, out of funds and with dwindling support, when a few months ago he hooked up with a Pakistani group, the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. This anti-Shi’ite militant organization operates throughout Pakistan and has a strong base in the South Waziristan tribal area on the border with Afghanistan.

–   One of the leaders of the Lashkar, Qari Zafar, then facilitated contact between Rigi’s Jundallah and al-Qaeda, resulting in Jundallah receiving a new line of funding in addition to its drug money – the immediate result was the attack in Zahedan.

–   As Jundallah stands now, its alliance with the Iranian MKO has given it additional manpower, as has the Lashkar, which also provides arms and ammunition and the expertise necessary to carry out cross-border operations in Iran as well as to revive the insurgency in Iranian Baloch regions.

–   At the top of this regrouped armed anti-Iranian nexus stands al-Qaeda, orchestrating events for its broader goal of regional destabilization.

Given the present turmoil in Iran, and the longstanding international pressure on Tehran which can be expected to increase now that Ahmadinejad is in power for another four years, the al-Qaeda-led grouping is in a position to step up its "franchise" operations in Iran.

–   On the flip side, should Iran become too exposed in this new version of the "war on terror", Tehran could move into the US’s arms, seeking some form of protection in return for compromises in its dealings with the US, especially over its nuclear program.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online’s Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com

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