– Dopo la destituzione di Mubarak, sembra destinato ad assumere un ruolo crescente nella vita politica egiziana la Fratellanza islamica, il gruppo islamista di opposizione fuori legge.
– La Fratellanza è lacerata da divisioni interne tra:
o Giovani e vecchi,
o riformisti e integralisti,
o politici mediatori delle grandi città e predicatori conservatori rurali, anti-americani, per la creazione di uno Stato islamico, per la jihad contro Israele, principale nemico.
– Sono stati i giovani, più tolleranti, ad avere un ruolo importante principale nell’organizzazione delle proteste iniziate il 25 gennaio, che hanno portato alla destituzione del presidente Mubarak, in carica da 29 anni.
– Negli ultimi anni l’ala pragmatica della Fratellanza ha formato una storica alleanza con attivisti laici di opposizione, e il ruolo che essa ha avuto nella destituzione di Mubarak l’avrebbe aiutata nella lotta per l’influenza con la vecchia guardia.
– Ma la maggior parte dei dirigenti è costituita dalla vecchia guardia anti-occidentale e più conservatrice.
o Il suo leader attuale, Mohamed Badi, veterinario di 66 anni, ha scritto sul sito web del gruppo, a settembre 2010 sugli Usa che un paese che non sostiene valore morali ed umani non può aspirare a guidare l’umanità … la resistenza è l’unica soluzione con tro l’arroganza e la tirannia sionista-americana … quel che serve è che i popoli arabi e musulmani la sostengano e la incoraggino …
– Moaz Abdel Karim, 29 anni, è il nuovo volto dalla Fratellanza musulmana, che pone al centro la lotta per la democrazia e i diritti umani in Egitto,
o e che sui diritti della donna, la libertà religiosa e il pluralismo politico ha una visione concordante con quella occidentale.
– Karim ha partecipato ad una conferenza stampa con giovani leader di una mezza dozzina di movimenti laici:
o hanno spiegato come secondo essi deve avvenire la transizione democratica in Egitto,
o apprezzando la cooperazione delle Forze Armate;
o La loro principale richiesta: un governo di unità che comprenda diverse forze di opposizione.
– La Fratellanza, con i cui dirigenti Karim si è scontrato nelle scorse settimane, ha lanciato un messaggio analogo, chiedendo libere elezioni;
o per dissipare timori sul rischio che cerchi di prendere il potere ha dichiarato che non presenterà un proprio candidato alle presidenziali, e che non cercherà la maggioranza parlamentare.
– Il presidente Usa, Obama, sottolinea che l’anti-americanismo della Fratellanza non ha il sostegno della maggioranza degli egiziani; Obama è perché la Fratellanza venga inclusa nel processo politico.
o Secondo analisti e membri della Fratellanza stessa, la repressione del governo egiziano contro la Fratellanza ha rafforzato la sua ala più oltranzista.
– In Egitto e fuori rimangono timori su come il gruppo userà il vantaggio politico, e se la sua ala più moderata ha una presa durevole.
o Israele teme che se esiste una corrente moderata della Fratellanza, cosa di cui dubita, essa possa essere messa da parte dalle fazioni più radicali, che hanno aiutato a finanziare Hamas, si sono espressi per gli attacchi contro i soldati Usa in Irak e Afghanistan.
o Teme che si ripeta quanto successo in Iran nel 1979, quando il governo moderato instaurato dopo lo shah, ha lasciato il posto agli ayatollah.
– Essam Sultan, ex membro della Fratellanza, da cui è uscito negli anni 1990 per creare il partito moderato islamista Wasat, o centrista: solo alcune fazione del movimento hanno merito per questa rivoluzione, non la Fratellanza nel suo insieme.
– Sotto diversi aspetti questa ala somiglia ai politici conservatori di centro-destra del mondo arabo: Islam parte dell’eredità egiziana, democrazia e pluralismo valori centrali islamici; pii e socialmente conservatori, contro il secolarismo stretto.
– Essam el-Eryan, uno dei riformisti del gruppo di 12 nel Consiglio di guida della Fratellanza, ha dichiarato, quando non era ancora certo che Mubarak si dimettesse, che:
o La Fratellanza non intende istituire uno Stato islamico; crede nella piena uguaglianza per donne e cristiani; non cercherà di abrogare il trattato di Camp David con Israele.
– La Fratellanza musulmana fu fondata nella città di Ismailiya sul canale di Suez nel 1928, da un insegnate di 22 anni; ricorse alla violenza contro l’occupazione britannica negli anni 1940.
– Si alleò con alcuni giovani ufficiali per abbattere il re nel 1952, porando al potere Gamal Abdel Nasser, e due anni dopo risultò implicate nel tentativo di assassinarlo. Nasser represse duramente il gruppo, incarcerandone per anni i dirigenti, ed esiliandone i membri.
– Nel 1972 dichiarò formalmente di rinunciare alla violenza; ma alcuni suoi ex membri sono responsabili dell’assassinio del presidente Anwar al-Sadat nel 1981; altri si sono alleati con Al- Qaeda.
– Fine Settanta ed inizio Ottanta, scontri tra la vecchia guardia di sinistra e studenti attivisti, che contribuirono a rendere resero sempre più impotente l’opposizione egiziana. Tre successive generazioni di leader della Fratellanza non seppero portare cambiamenti (Karim).
– Secondo leader della Fratellanza e laici le basi della cooperazione che ha scatenato le proteste quest’anno sarebbero da far risalire ai primi 2000, quando laici che islamisti protestarono entrambi contro la repressione israeliana della seconda intifada palestinese e l’invasione americana dell’Irak.
– Nel 2005, la Fratellanza ottenne una vittoria nelle elezioni parlamentari, con 88 seggi; benché ufficialmente al bando essa è tollerata e ha potuto presentare propri candidati come indipendenti.
– Molti dei parlamentari della Fratellanza sono pragmatisti, più disposti a cooperare con altri gruppi per raggiungere compromessi; hanno avuto il plauso da leader laici dell’opposizione per la loro battaglia contro l’estensione delle leggi speciali.
– Si son espressi per l’indipendenza del giudiziario e chiesto libertà di stampa.
– Il regime ha represso molto brutalmente i moderati del movimento, anziché gli oltranzisti; 18 parlamentari della Fratellanza erano tra le centinaia di arrestati, come pure i pragmatisti facenti parte del direttivo a 12 del movimento.
– I loro posto è stato riempito con conservatori, che nel 2007 emise una piattaforma che ha fatto sparire molte delle posizioni più moderate del gruppo. Le divisioni cominciarono ad uscire allo scoperto.
– Nelle elezioni del 2008 per il consiglio della Fratellanza, gli oltranzisti si presero quasi tutto, un solo seggio su preso da un riformista, e uno dei due posti per i membri in alternanza (in caso di arresto o morte di qualcuno).
– In questo periodo le relazioni tra l’ala dei giovani con attivisti di altri gruppi vennero rafforzate tramite il web, con condivisione di principi su diritti umani e politica.
– Nel novembre 2008, l’allora leader della Fratellanbza, Mahdy Akef chiamò a creare una coalizione di tutti i poteri politici e della società civile contro la tirannia al potere in Egitto,
o Il cambiamento di linea sarebbe stato causato dal timore di perdere i quadri giovani, dopo una serie di defezioni di attivisti di primo piano.
o La Fratellanza appoggiò ElBaradei tornado in Egitto nel febbraio 2010 per dirigere un’alleanza di gruppi di opposizione, molti dei quali fatti di giovani.
o Dopo le rivolte tunisine i giovani della Fratellanza musulmana, tra i quali Karim, si incontrarono con i leader di altri movimenti giovanili, e decisero di organizzare una rivolta simile in Egitto. Era un gruppo di circa 12 giovani.
I vecchi in un primo tempo rifiutarono di appoggiarli, accettando solo in un secondo momento di consentire ai membri di partecipare come individui.
‘Brothers’ in Egypt Present Two Faces
– CAIRO—Moaz Abdel Karim, an affable 29-year-old who was among a handful of young activists who plotted the recent protests here, is the newest face of the Muslim Brotherhood. His political views on women’s rights, religious freedom and political pluralism mesh with Western democratic values. He is focused on the fight for democracy and human rights in Egypt.
– A different face of the Brotherhood is that of Mohamed Badi, 66-year-old veterinarian from the Brotherhood’s conservative wing who has been the group’s Supreme Guide since last January. He recently pledged the Brotherhood would "continue to raise the banner of jihad" against the Jews, which he called the group’s "first and foremost enemies." He has railed against American imperialism, and calls for the establishment of an Islamic state.
– After Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stepped down on Friday amid the region’s most dramatic grassroots uprising since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the Brotherhood became poised to assume a growing role in the country’s political life. The question for many is: Which Brotherhood?
● The Muslim Brotherhood, the outlawed Egyptian Islamist opposition group is plagued by rifts between young and old, reformist and hard-liner, and between big city deal-making politicians, and conservative rural preachers. Charles Levinson explains.
– It was Mr. Karim and his younger, more tolerant cohorts who played a key role organizing the protests that began on Jan. 25 and ultimately unseated a 29-year president. But it’s the more conservative, anti-Western old guard that still make up by far the bulk of the group’s leadership.
– Mr. Badi, the current leader, wrote an article in September on the group’s website in which he said of the U.S. that "a nation that does not champion moral and human values cannot lead humanity, and its wealth will not avail it once Allah has had His say."
– He wrote in that same article that "resistance is the only solution against the Zio-American arrogance and tyranny, and all we need is for the Arab and Muslim peoples to stand behind it and support it… We say to our brothers the mujahideen in Gaza: be patient, persist in [your jihad], and know that Allah is with you…"
– On Monday, meanwhile, Mr. Karim stood shoulder to shoulder at a press conference with youth leaders from half a dozen mostly secular movements, to lay out their vision for how Egypt’s transition to democracy should proceed and to praise the Army for cooperating.
– Their top demand: a unity government that includes a broad swath of opposition forces.
– The Brotherhood, whose leaders Mr. Karim butted heads with in recent weeks, put out a similar message on Saturday calling for free and fair elections.
o Seeking to allay fears that it would make a power grab, the Brotherhood also said it wouldn’t run a candidate in presidential elections or seek a majority in parliament.
– Both Egyptians and outsiders, however, remain wary. They are unsure about how the group will ultimately harness any newfound political gains and whether its more-moderate wing will, in fact, have lasting clout.
– "It’s never entirely clear with the Brothers," says Josh Stacher, a political science professor at Kent State University who spent years in Egypt studying the organization. "It’s a big group, with lots of different points of view. You can find the guy always screaming about Israel and then you got the other guys who don’t care about Israel because they’re too busy worrying about raising literacy rates."
– Israel, which shares a long and porous border with Egypt, fears that if a moderate wing of the Brotherhood exists—and many in Israel’s leadership are skeptical that it does—it could be shoved aside by more extreme factions within the group.
– The Brotherhood’s conservative wing has for years put out anti-Israel comments and writings, and helped fund Hamas, the Palestinian militant group. It has also spoken out in support of attacks against U.S. soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"If the Muslim Brotherhood comes to power, through elections or some other way, that would be a repeat of 1979 in Iran," when moderate governments installed after the shah gave way to the ayatollahs, says a senior Israeli official. "It’s something we’re looking at with great caution."
Muslim Brotherhood youth leader Moaz Abdel Karim helped organize demonstrations against Mr. Mubarak.
– The U.S. appears to be taking a wait-and-see approach, with officials saying in recent days it should be given a chance. President Barack Obama, in an interview with Fox News, acknowledged the group’s anti-American strains, but said it didn’t enjoy majority support in Egypt and should be included in the political process. "It’s important for us not to say that our only two options are either the Muslim Brotherhood or a suppressed Egyptian people," he said.
The outlawed Islamist opposition group is plagued by rifts between young and old, reformist and hard-liner. There are big city deal-making politicians, and conservative rural preachers who eschew politics in favor of proselytizing Islam.
– Egypt’s government has long highlighted the group’s hard-line wing as a threat to the country. Yet its selective crackdowns have historically empowered the very hard-liners it has sought to undermine, analysts and Brotherhood members say.
– The conservative leadership’s autocratic leadership style within the movement, its lack of tolerance for dissenting opinions and its preference to conduct business behind closed doors have all contributed to deep skepticism among outsiders about the Brotherhood leadership’s stated commitment to democracy.
– In recent years, meanwhile, the group’s pragmatic wing has forged a historic alliance with secular opposition activists. Their role in the unseating of Mr. Mubarak appears to have given them a boost in a struggle for influence with the Brotherhood’s fiery old guard.
– "The Muslim Brotherhood as a whole doesn’t deserve credit for this revolution, but certain factions within the movement absolutely do, generally those that have more modern views," says Essam Sultan, a former member of the group who left in the 1990s to form the moderate Islamist Wasat, or Centrist, Party. "That wing should get a massive bounce out of this."
Whether that bounce will be enough to propel the more-moderate Brothers to a permanent position of influence—or what their legislative agenda would actually be—is one of the key unknowns in Egypt’s political evolution.
– In many ways, this faction resembles conservative right-of-center politicians elsewhere in the Arab world. They espouse a view of Islam as a part of Egyptian heritage and argue that democracy and pluralism are central Islamic values. They are pious and socially conservative, and reject the strict secularism that is a feature of most Western concepts of liberal democracy.
– On Wednesday, when it was still unclear whether Mr. Mubarak would step down, Essam el-Eryan, one of the only reformists currently on the group’s 12-member ruling Guidance Council, said in a statement that the group didn’t seek the establishment of an Islamic state; believed in full equality for women and Christians; and wouldn’t attempt to abrogate the Camp David peace treaty with Israel—all tenets espoused by Brotherhood leaders over the decades. Mr. el-Eryan said those Brothers who had suggested otherwise in their writings and public comments in recent days and years had been misunderstood or weren’t speaking for the organization.
– Founded in the Suez Canal town of Ismailiya in 1928 by a 22-year-old school teacher, the organization used violence to battle the British occupation in the 1940s.
– The group allied with some young officers to overthrow the king in 1952 and bring Gamal Abdel Nasser to power, only to become implicated in an assassination attempt on Nasser two years later. He responded with a fierce crackdown, sending the group’s leadership to prison for years, and its membership ranks into exile.
– The Muslim Brotherhood abandoned violence in the years that followed, formally renouncing it as a domestic strategy in 1972. But some of its offspring have taken a bloodier path. Some former members established the group responsible for the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Al-Sadat in 1981, and others have allied with Al Qaeda.
– In the late 1970s and early 1980s, an older generation of leftist and Islamist student activists battled each other violently on college campuses. Egypt’s opposition grew increasingly ineffective, partially as a result of those rifts.
– "We saw three successive generations of Brotherhood leaders fail to bring change, and we learned from their mistakes," says Mr. Karim, one of the leaders of the group’s youth wing.
– Brotherhood and secular leaders say the seeds of the cooperation that drove this year’s protests were planted in the early 2000s when Israel’s crackdown on the second Palestinian uprising and the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq brought secularists and Islamists alike into the streets to protest a common cause.
– Then, in 2005, the Brotherhood struck a key victory in the parliamentary elections, winning an all-time high of 88 seats. Though officially banned, the organization is tolerated and allowed to put up candidates as independents.
– Many of the Brotherhood lawmakers were pragmatists compared to the hard-line members of the group who preferred to stay out of politics. They were more open to working with other groups to forge compromises, and won plaudits from secular opposition leaders by focusing their legislative efforts on fighting an extension of the country’s emergency law.
– They also stood up for the independence of the judiciary and pushed for press freedoms, and didn’t work to ban books or impose Islamic dress on women—moves many critics had feared.
"In the past, Muslim Brothers in parliament sometimes made noise about racy books or the Ms. Egypt beauty pageant, and it made a lot of us uncomfortable," says Osama Ghazali Harb, head of the National Democratic Front, a secular opposition party. "They didn’t do this in the last five years."
– The regime responded to the Brothers’ newfound parliamentary prowess with one of the most brutal crackdowns in the group’s history. Instead of coming down on the organization’s hard-line leaders, it focused on the movement’s moderates.
"The government wants them to be secretive, hard-line, because it makes them fulfill the role of the bogey man that they’re propped up to be," says Kent State’s Mr. Stacher. "You don’t want soft and squishy huggable Islamists, and you don’t want sympathetic characters. You want scary people who go on CNN and rail against Israel."
– Eighteen Brotherhood legislative staffers drafting education and health-care reform bills were among hundreds arrested. So, too, were the leading pragmatists on the movement’s 12-man leadership bureau.
– The power vacuum was quickly filled by conservatives, who in 2007 put out a platform paper walking back many of the group’s more-moderate views.
– It stated, for example, that neither women nor Christians were qualified to run for president. Casting further doubts on the organization’s commitment to the separation of church and state, the paper called for a religious council to sign off on laws.
Rifts between conservatives and reformers in the group began to flare into the open. The group’s moderates argued that the paper was only a draft and never officially adopted.
– In the 2008 elections to the Brotherhood’s Guidance Council, hard-liners nearly swept the field, according to people familiar with the group. Only one seat on the leadership council is held by a consistent reformist, say these people, as well as one of the two alternate members who would step in should someone be arrested or die.
– During this same period, Mr. Karim, from the Brotherhood’s youth wing, says his relationships with activists in other groups were being cemented through online networks. "The new media allowed me to connect with the other" activists in Egypt, he says. "And I realized that there are things we agree on, like human-rights issues and political issues."
– Past partnerships between the Brotherhood and secular parties had been top-down short-lived agreements born of political necessity.
This latest alliance formed more organically, say several young activists who are working with the Brotherhood.
"We just got to know, trust and like each other, even—believe it or not—the Brothers," says Basim Kamel, a 41-year-old leader in Mohamed ElBaradei’s secular movement.
As conservatives were gaining influence within the Muslim Brotherhood’s leadership ranks, Mr. Karim and his fellow youth cadres were growing impatient.
– He says they began arguing with their superiors, saying the group was losing credibility in the street because they weren’t out protesting for democracy like the secular activists were.
– In November 2008, the Brotherhood’s then-leader Mahdy Akef called for "establishing a coalition among all political powers and civil society" to challenge the "tyranny that Egypt is currently witnessing."
– Mr. Akef couldn’t be reached for comment, but those familiar with the group’s inner workings say the shift came as the leadership realized they risked losing their youth cadres, particularly after a series of high-profile defections by young Brotherhood activists.
– When Mr. ElBaradei returned to Egypt in February 2010 to lead an alliance of opposition groups, many of them youth-driven, the Muslim Brotherhood backed him, formalizing a partnership that had already gelled among the rank and file.
The alliance was uneasy at times. When other opposition groups voted to boycott November’s parliamentary elections, for example, the Brotherhood broke ranks and ran.
– After the uprising in Tunisia in January, Brotherhood youth, including Mr. Karim, met with the leaders of other youth movements and decided to plan a similar uprising in Egypt.
– A group of about 12 youth leaders, including Mr. Karim, met secretly over the course of two weeks to figure out how to plot a demonstration that would outfox security forces.
The Brotherhood’s senior leadership refused to endorse their efforts at first. They ultimately agreed to allow members to participate as individuals—and to forgo holding up religious slogans that the Brotherhood might have used in the past, such as "Islam is the solution," or waving Korans.
—Summer Said in Cairo and Richard Boudreaux in Jerusalem contributed to this article.