<109808094">India, Usa, nucleare NYT 05-07-19
<109808095">Gli Usa intendono ampliare l’accesso dell’India alla tecnologia per l’energia nucleare
Steven R. Weisman
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Nyt 05-07-20
<109808096">Gli alleati degli Usa e il Congresso americano sono “positivi” sull’accordo nucleare con l’India
STEVEN R. WEISMAN
<109808097">Accordo tra il presidente americano Bush e il primo ministro indiano Manmohan Singh sul nucleare: revoca del bando alla vendita di tecnologia nucleare all’India, fonte di un attrito decennale tra i due paesi. Si tratterebbe di una promozione dell’India, da Stato pariah a potenza nucleare riconosciuta.
Per l’amministrazione Bush si tratterebbe di passo avanti nella strategia di miglioramento delle relazioni con l’India, anche come contrappeso alla Cina. Il tentativo di avvicinamento fu interrotto quando, in seguito all’11 settembre, gli Usa decisero di fornire aiuto militare al Pakistan, avversario storico dell’India. Recentemente gli americani hanno venduto aerei da combattimenti F-16 al Pakistan, le autorità indiane non intendono, per ora, farne una questione.
L’amministrazione Bush motiva la decisione con il riconoscimento del dato di fatto dello status di potenza atomica dell’India.
Secondo l’accordo, che deve però ancora essere ratificato dal Congresso, con l’attesa opposizione soprattutto dei Democratici, e dagli altri paesi nucleari, l’India potrebbe ottenere combustibile e componenti per il reattore dagli Usa e da altri paesi.
In cambio deve permettere le ispezioni internazionali, rinunciare ad altri test di armi nucleari, e al trasferimento di tecnologia bellica ad altri paesi.
Oltre alla modifica del Congresso della legge del 1978 di bando agli aiuti ai paesi con l’arma atomica, dovrebbe essere modificato anche l’accordo di una coalizione di paesi noto come Nuclear Suppliers Group, che ha pure concordato simili restrizioni.
Il sottosegretario di Stato americano Nicholas Burns riferisce (il 20 luglio) della risposta “abbastanza positiva” degli alleati e dei leader del Congresso. A suo avviso l’esenzione all’India dalle normative sulla non-proliferazione non creerà problemi riguardo al tentativo di far aderire Iran e Nord Corea al Nnt; mentre l’India non ha mai nascosto le sue intenzioni, Iran e Nord Corea hanno formalmente aderito al trattato ma non l’hanno rispettato. Il Nord Corea ne è poi uscito.
Il vice segretario di stato per la non proliferazione, Wolf, spera che gli alleati americani in Europa, come pure Russia e Cina appoggeranno l’accordo con l’India perché in tal modo sfrutterebbero la possibilità di venderle componenti nucleari.
Tra i sostenitori delle concessioni all’India vi sarebbero, secondo non meglio identificati funzionari dell’amministrazione americana, il segretario alla difesa Donald Rumsfeld e Robert Blackwill, ex ambasciatore in India, che ha fatto parte del Consiglio per la Sicurezza Nazionale.
Il segretario di Stato americano Rice riferisce di una reazione “costruttiva” e “non troppo problematica” da parte del presidente pachistano.
L’India fece il suo primo test nucleare nel 1974 – seguito da un altro nel 1998 -, e rifiutò poi di sottoscrivere il Trattato di non proliferazione nucleare. Il Pakistan fece il suo primo test nucleare nel 1998, e inviò contingenti armati nel Kahmir indiano suscitando le preoccupazioni internazionali di una guerra nucleare. Le tensioni tra i due paesi andarono in seguito diminuendo. Con un nuovo approccio, l’amministrazione Bush dichiarò allora sorpassato e da aggiornare il Nnt.
Il programma internazionale che regola le questioni nucleari risale al presidente americano Eisenhower, “atomi per la pace”, tradotto poi nel Trattato di Non Proliferazione Nucleare firmato da 187 paesi, compresi i cinque nucleari, e rifiutato da diversi paesi, tra cui India, Pakistan e Israele.
Tra i paesi riconosciuti in grado di costruire la bomba: Brasile, Sud Africa, Turchia, Arabia Saudita, Sud Corea, Giappone e Taiwan.
Nel dibattito sul trattato di Bush con l’India, la questione più rilevante è data dal rischio che questi paesi siano tentati di procurarsi l’arma atomica, in particolare se le crisi su Nord Corea e Iran uscissero dal controllo.
Il Pakistan non ha ancora reagito all’accordo, ma si da per certo che chiederà uguali concessioni. La Cina sta già pensando di vendere altri reattori al Pakistan.
Oltre al nucleare, l’accordo Usa-Cina prevede aiuti per il programma spaziale civile dell’India, agricoltura, investimenti e programmi di lotta contro l’Aids.
NYT 05-07-19
U.S. to Broaden India’s Access to Nuclear-Power Technology
by Steven R. Weisman
WASHINGTON, July 18 – President Bush, bringing India a step closer to joining the club of nuclear-weapons states, reached an agreement with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to let India secure international help for its civilian nuclear reactors while retaining its nuclear arms.
The agreement, if approved by other nuclear countries and Congress, would remove a ban on civilian nuclear technology sales to India and with it a decades-long source of antagonism between the two countries.
India could obtain nuclear fuel and reactor components from the United States and other countries , and in return would allow international inspections and safeguards on its civilian nuclear program, and refrain from further weapons tests and from transferring arms technology to other countries.
Beyond that, the agreement would bring a significant gain in India’s international status: from that of pariah, since it first tested a nuclear weapon in 1974 and refused to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, to something close to acceptance as a nuclear-armed nation.
There was no immediate reaction from Pakistan, which is considered certain to demand similar concessions, and some analysts were concerned that the step would weaken international controls on nuclear arms.
For the Bush administration , the agreement was a major step forward in what has been a campaign since 2001 to improve ties with India, in part as a counterweight to China. That effort was disrupted after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and by the American decision to provide military aid to Pakistan, India’s longtime rival.
"Because of our shared values, the relationship between our two countries has never been stronger," Mr. Bush said at the White House, b
efore details of the accord were disclosed. "We’re working together to make our nations more secure, deliver a better life to our citizens and advance the cause of peace and freedom throughout the world."
Shyam Saran, the Indian foreign secretary, said in an interview: "We are looking at complete removal of the restrictive technology regimes that India has been subjected to for decades. What this agreement says is that we are willing to assume the same responsibilities and practices – no more and no less – as other nuclear states."
It was not immediately clear how difficult it will be for the United States to persuade Congress and major nuclear-armed nations – Britain, France, China and Russia – to go along with this change of status for India.
The basic international program governing such matters has been in place since President Eisenhower proposed an "atoms for peace" project in which countries would voluntarily give up nuclear arms in return for access to nuclear energy components like reactors and fuel, and would submit to international inspection.
The program was codified in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, or NPT, which has 187 signatories, including five countries with nuclear weapons. But several major countries, including India, Pakistan and Israel, have refused to sign it.
A senior State Department official, giving a briefing under ground rules in which he could not be identified, said that the Bush administration still hoped India would eventually give up nuclear weapons, and that the administration rebuffed an Indian request to be recognized formally as a nuclear weapons state under the treaty.
"The discussions went through various permutations," he said. "We didn’t feel we could somehow formally recognize India as a nuclear state. Ultimately, we hope they will elect to join the NPT."
The official said the United States would continue to press Iran and North Korea to give up their suspected nuclear weapons programs on the grounds that they had signed various agreements and then cheated on them, while India had an "impeccable" record of not sharing its weapons technology with other countries.
But several nuclear weapons experts said in interviews Monday that the main effect of the India accord would be less on Iran, North Korea or even Pakistan – which has admitted to sharing its weapons technology with others – than on the many states that have signed up to the bargain implied by the concept of "atoms for peace." Among the countries that are widely known or thought to be able to produce nuclear weapons, but which have not done so because of their desire to comply with the terms of the nonproliferation treaty, are Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.
The fear is that these countries, seeing the deal offered India, might be tempted to get nuclear arms, especially if the crises over North Korea and Iran spin out of control.
"If you open the door for India, a lot of other countries are likely to step through it," said Leonard S. Spector, deputy director of the Monterey Center for Nonproliferation Studies. "China is already thinking of selling additional reactors to Pakistan."Such concerns are likely to be raised in Congress, at least among Democrats, despite what appears to be an overall predisposition to improve relations with India.
"Why should the United States sell controlled nuclear goods to India?" asked Representative Edward J. Markey, Democrat of Massachusetts after announcement of the agreement. "We cannot play favorites, breaking the rules of the nonproliferation treaty to favor one nation at the risk of undermining critical international treaties on nuclear weapons."
The accord with Prime Minister Singh was remarkable in another respect: It comes only a few years after the world was genuinely concerned that it had little leverage with India and Pakistan to pull them back from the brink of nuclear confrontation.
The Bush administration argues that that it makes sense for the world to recognize the reality of India’s nuclear weapons status, reinforced when it tested its first bomb in 1974 and then when it did so again in the spring of 1998, a time of heightened tensions with Pakistan.
Pakistan followed suit later that year and then sent forces into Indian-controlled territory in Kashmir, engaging in combat with Indian forces and stirring global fears of a nuclear war.
Since then, India-Pakistan tensions have eased , and the Bush administration has taken a new approach to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, declaring it outdated and in need of revamping. At the same time, the United States went to war citing an Iraqi nuclear threat and has tried to block Iran’s and North Korea’s suspected nuclear arms programs.
In the past, India and the United States have sought to improve ties, but the efforts have always foundered because of American support for Pakistan. Indian officials say they have decided, at least for now, not to make a big issue of the recent American sale of F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan.
Both Mr. Bush and Mr. Singh sought to portray the session between them as marking the best relations since Indian independence in 1947. Their discussions also encompassed help for India’s civilian space program, agriculture, business investment and programs to combat AIDS.
"I am happy that the president and I share the common goal of making this one of the principal relations for each of our country," Mr. Singh said. "The president’s personal commitment to this relationship is deeply admired by the people of India."
He also said Mr. Bush would visit India before his term in office was completed, but no date was set.
Copyright 2005 The New York Times
Nyt 05-07-20
U.S. Allies and Congress ‘Positive’ About India Nuclear Deal
By STEVEN R. WEISMAN
WASHINGTON, July 19 – A senior Bush administration official said Tuesday that the administration had gotten a "fairly positive" response among its allies overseas and Congressional leaders for a new agreement to give India help for its civilian nuclear program while allowing it to retain nuclear weapons.
The official, R. Nicholas Burns, under secretary of state for political affairs, said that European leaders had been told in recent weeks that a deal might be in the works, but that it had not been clear there would be an agreement until the last minute, leaving little time to brief foreign and Congressional officials in advance.
"I don’t expect a lot of opposition in Europe," Mr. Burns said in an interview, adding that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also spoke Tuesday to President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan and that his reaction was "constructive" and "not overly problematic."
A spokesman at the Pakistani Embassy said there had been no reaction in Islamabad to the deal announced Monday, between President Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India.
The accord would bring a major change in the international accords governing nuclear technology, essentially exempting India from longstanding requirements th
at only countries willing to forswear nuclear weapons may purchase or obtain civilian nuclear technology, equipment and fuel from the world’s major nuclear energy suppliers. India has never signed the Nonproliferation Treaty and never accepted inspections of its nuclear facilities. Now it is to accept inspections of its civilian but not its military nuclear facilities. For the agreement to be put into effect, Congress would have to change a 1978 law barring American nuclear energy aid to nuclear weapons states, as well an accord of a coalition of nations known as the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which has long agreed to similar restrictions.
A European diplomat said that although the deal was a "step in the right direction" for India , because India would agree to safeguards for its civilian nuclear program, it posed the risk of weakening the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty "if it is poorly implemented."
"India has to implement what it committed itself to, and perhaps go even further," said the diplomat, asking not to be identified because European governments were still formulating their official positions.
The deal between India and the United States drew criticism from nuclear experts at research institutions specializing in efforts to stop the spread of nuclear weapons and from a former top Bush administration official involved in the issue.
"It’s disappointing that we’ve given something to India and not gotten something substantial in return," said John S. Wolf, a former assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation affairs. "This agreement is difficult to reconcile with the international norms advanced by the United States for the last 40 years."
Mr. Wolf, who is now president of the Eisenhower Fellowship program in Philadelphia, said experts on the issue at the State Department in the last term had resisted efforts to make a deal with India along the lines of the one announced Monday.
Among those experts, he said, were John R. Bolton, the former under secretary of state for international security and arms control, who has been nominated by President Bush to serve as ambassador to the United Nations. Mr. Bolton’s office did not respond to a request for him to comment.
Various administration officials say that a core of officials had wanted to help India from the start of Mr. Bush’s time in office in 2001.
Among the advocates of concessions to India, those officials said, were Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and Robert Blackwill, a former ambassador to India who served on the National Security Council staff. Mr. Blackwill, in the current issue of The National Interest, a public policy magazine, says he frequently battled with the State Department on nuclear issues, describing opponents of giving India wider latitude in the nuclear area as "nagging nannies" whose policies he refused to put into effect. He did not return a call asking for comment.
Mr. Burns , who has been a point man in the India negotiations, said Secretary Rice and Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser, had hammered out the final details on Monday morning. He said exempting India from the nonproliferation norms should not create problems for the administration’s other efforts to try to get Iran and North Korea to adhere to Nonproliferation Treaty obligations. Both countries, he said, had signed the treaty, but then cheated. North Korea later withdrew from it.
"Everybody knows, when you stop to think about it, that India is unique," he said. "India has also told the truth about what it’s doing and is now willing to subject itself to intrusive inspections. Iran and North Korea signed the NPT and then did not abide by the rules. India wants to abide by the rules."
Mr. Wolf said that despite his own misgivings, he expected that the United States’ allies in Europe, as well as Russia and China, would probably support the India deal because they would jump at the chance to sell nuclear components to India.
"Whatever they’re saying now about this agreement," he said, "they’ll be in New Delhi tomorrow."
Copyright 2005 The New York Times
