Siria, Usa, potenze
– Gli Usa hanno deciso un maggiore coinvolgimento diretto nella Guerra civile siriana:
o – che nel 2012 ha bloccato una analoga proposta dell’allora direttore CIA Petraeus e dell’allora segretaria di Stato Clinton, esprimendo timori che le armi finissero agli islamisti-
o ha dato ordine alla CIA di coordinare l’armamento dei ribelli siriani con gli alleati; le armi verrebbero consegnate ai ribelli anti-Assad in Giordania.
– Motivazione della svolta dell’Amministrazione americana: Assad starebbe usando armi chimiche, gas sarin compreso, che avrebbero provocato 150 vittime; in totale le vittime del conflitto che dura da 27 mesi, sarebbero più di 90mila, dati Onu.
o Pressione da GB e Francia per posizione più chiara degli USA, ribadita certezza dell’uso di armi chimiche da parte del regime.
o Richiesta dai militari Usa la costituzione di una no-fly zone, o meglio una no-fight-zone (zona di non combattimento) con l’uso di aerei, lungo il confine giordano per una profondità di 25 miglia, per “proteggere i rifugiati siriani e i ribelli che si addestrano”, e il personale Usa;
o Il costo di questa zona cuscinetto sarebbe di circa $50 milioni al giorno.
o Gli Usa hanno già portato in Giordania aerei Patriot e F-16, che dispongono di missile aria-aria capaci di distruggere gli aerie siriani a lunga distanza;
o Sarebbe auto-difesa se i caccia americani dovessero entrare nello spazio siriano perchè minacciati …
o Secondo i suoi sostenitori, la no-fly zone potrebbe essere costituita anche senza l’avallo Onu, perché gli Usa non entrerebbero nello spazio aereo e non occuperebbero territorio siriano.
– Divisioni sulla decisione all’interno della squadra per la sicurezza; ma l’Amministrazione deve appoggiare I ribelli che stanno perdendo terreno contro Assad appoggiato da Russia, Iran e Hezbollah, e che potrebbero prendere Aleppo, e rendere molto difficile il contrattacco dei ribelli.
– La decisione Usa peserà nel vertice del G8 della prossima settimana.
– I ribelli hanno chiesto missile anti-carro e armi anti-aereo (chiamate manpads), e molte munizioni per le armi leggere.
Dubbi Usa, ma non dei paesi UE, sulla fornitura di manpad per timore possano essere usati contro aerei civili.
U.S. to Arm Syrian Rebels
– WASHINGTON—President Barack Obama authorized his administration to provide arms to rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, officials said Thursday, a major policy shift after the White House said it had confirmed that Damascus used chemical weapons in the country’s civil war.
– The classified order directing the Central Intelligence Agency to coordinate arming the rebels in concert with its allies reverses a long-standing policy that limited the U.S. to providing nonlethal support.
– The White House declined to comment on the authorization, saying only that Mr. Obama had decided to ramp up "military support" to moderate rebels both in "scope and scale."
– U.S. officials also told The Wall Street Journal on Thursday that the U.S. military proposal for arming the rebels also calls for a limited no-fly zone inside Syria that would be enforced by U.S. and allied planes on Jordanian territory to protect Syrian refugees and rebels who would train there.
– Such a move, if the White House goes ahead, would represent a significantly bigger U.S. engagement in Syria’s civil war.
Related Coverage
U.S. Military Proposal to Arm Rebels Includes No-Fly Zone in Syria
White House Statement on Use of Chemical Weapons in Syria
– The developments followed a series of high level meetings at the White House and consultations with allies in which officials discussed the intelligence findings and proposals for arming the rebels.
– U.S. officials said the issue divided Mr. Obama’s national security team but that the administration faced little choice other than to step up its support or risk watching as rebels lose still more ground to a resurgent Assad regime backed by Russia, Iran and soldiers from the militant Hezbollah group.
Rebels requested specific weapons to hold off Mr. Assad’s forces and Hezbollah fighters who are closing in on rebel positions in the city of Aleppo, the Journal reported Wednesday. The head of Syria’s opposition Supreme Military Council, or SMC, issued a plea to U.S. officials and others for arms.
Ben Rhodes, the White House Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications, said the U.S. has concluded that forces loyal to the Syrian regime have used chemical weapons against rebels, resulting in up to 150 deaths.
– The U.S. determination came the same day the United Nations reported that the number of deaths in the 27-month conflict has surpassed 90,000.
– The assessment on chemical weapons was based in part on laboratory analysis of physical samples taken from Syria, Mr. Rhodes said. He referred to the use of chemical weapons as a "red line" and said it has changed Mr. Obama’s calculus about U.S. involvement in the conflict.
In April, the White House notified Congress that U.S. intelligence agencies believed with "varying degrees of confidence" that Mr. Assad’s forces had used chemical weapons, including sarin gas, in limited quantities.
– In the two months that followed, the U.S. came under heavy pressure from allies Britain and France to make a clear-cut determination. While U.S. officials initially voiced doubts, Britain and France said early on that they were more certain chemical weapons had been used.
On Thursday, Mr. Rhodes said the U.S. now "has high confidence in that assessment given multiple, independent streams of information."
– The U.S. findings about chemical-weapons use were shared with Russia, part of a U.S. effort to get Moscow to cut support to Mr. Assad. The U.S. ramp-up will be a key issue at a gathering of leaders of the Group of 8 leading countries in Ireland next week.
– Mr. Rhodes highlighted four instances in which the U.S. believes chemical weapons were used: on March 19 in the Aleppo suburb of Khan Al-Asal; April 13 in the Aleppo neighborhood of Sheikh Maksud; May 14, in Qasr Abu Samra, which is north of Homs; and on May 23 in an attack in eastern Damascus.
– Officials said the White House has yet to decide what types of arms the U.S. will provide to the rebels. The rebels have asked for antitank missiles and antiaircraft weapons known as Manpads, as well as for large amounts of ammunition for small arms.
– U.S. officials have made clear the White House is unlikely to provide Manpads to the rebels because of concerns they could be turned against civilian aircraft. But the U.S. hasn’t ruled out providing antitank weapons and small arms. Officials say European allies have expressed a willingness to provide Manpads and potentially other heavier weapons sought by rebels.
"The red line has been crossed and now we are going to go ahead with arming the opposition," a senior U.S. official said.
– who last year blocked a proposal backed by then-Central Intelligence Agency Director David Petraeus and then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to arm the rebels. At the time, Mr. Obama voiced concerns that arms could end up in the hands of Islamists battling Mr. Assad.
But administration officials who favored providing arms said the White House believes it has a clearer picture today of the opposition and confidence that sufficient safeguards can be put in place to prevent U.S. weapons from reaching Islamist fighters aligned with al Qaeda.
– More important, officials say, the White House was moved by concerns that Mr. Assad’s forces and thousands of Hezbollah fighters may be poised for an assault on Aleppo that would deal such a serious blow to moderate rebel forces that it will be hard for them to regroup and bounce back.
– U.S. officials say weapons and training will likely be delivered to the rebels inside Jordan, a key ally that has been overwhelmed by a flood of refugees from Syria and has offered the U.S. use of its bases to help set up a safe zone along the Syrian border.
– U.S. military planners, responding to a request by the White House to develop options for Syria, recommended the limited no-fly zone along the Syrian border to protect rebels and refugees inside Jordan.
– The plan would create what one official called a "no fighting zone" that would stretch up to 25 miles into Syrian territory along the Jordanian border, preventing Mr. Assad’s forces from launching attacks against the rebels and refugees and protecting U.S. personnel involved in distributing weapons and providing training.
– Under this plan, the U.S. and its allies would enforce the zone using aircraft flown from Jordanian bases and flying inside the kingdom, according to U.S. officials.
– Jordan has been inundated by a flood of refugees that Jordanian and U.S. officials say is a growing threat to the kingdom, a key U.S. ally in the region.
– The U.S. has already moved Patriot air defense batteries and F-16 fighter planes to Jordan, which could be integral to any no-fly zone if Mr. Obama approves the military proposal.
– Proponents of the proposal think a no-fly zone could be imposed without a U.N. Security Council resolution, since the U.S. would not regularly enter Syrian airspace and wouldn’t hold Syrian territory.
– U.S. planes have air-to-air missiles that could destroy Syrian planes from long ranges. But officials said that aircraft may be required to enter Syrian air space if threatened by advancing Syrian planes. Such an incursion by the U.S., if it were to happen, could be justified as self-defense, officials say.
– Creating even a limited buffer zone that Syrian airplanes cannot enter will be expensive, costing an estimated $50 million a day, officials said.
Republican lawmakers were quick to praise the increase in aid.
Sens. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and John McCain of Arizona said in a joint statement: "The president’s red line has been crossed. U.S. credibility is on the line. Now is not the time to merely take the next incremental step. Now is the time for more decisive actions."
Write to Adam Entous at adam.entous@wsj.com and Julian E. Barnes at julian.barnes@wsj.com