Irak,
fazioni, religione
Nyt 061212
Gli iracheni stanno studiando il modo per
ridurre il potere del clero
EDWARD WONG
In corso negoziati tra diversi dei maggiori partiti politici
iracheni, sotto l’egida USA, per formare una coalizione finalizzata a
contrastare la forte influenza sul governo del religioso sciita radicale,
Moktada a-Sadr.
Partecipano ai negoziati:
–
i due principali partiti curdi;
–
il maggior partito arabo-sunnita;
–
il partito sciita appoggiato dall’Iran, che ha cercato a lungo
di dirigere il governo;
–
invitato anche il primo ministro al-Maliki, conservatore, la
cui relazione con al-Sadr sta mostrando segni di tensione.
–
I partiti coinvolti nei negoziati hanno quasi i 2/3 dei voti
in parlamento, necessari per destituire al-Maliki e formare un nuovo governo;
avrebbero i 2/3 coinvolgendo altri gruppi come il partito centrista laico di
Ayad Alalwi, l’ex primo ministro.
–
Un candidato a primo ministro potrebbe essere il vice di
Hakim, Adel Abdul Mehdi, che in primavera fu il favorito della Casa Bianca, e
venne sconfitto dal sostegno dato da Sadr al Partito Islamico Dawa di Maliki.
–
La milizia controllata da al-Sadr, forte di 60 000
uomini, si è ribellata due volte contro gli americani, ed è accusata di
fomentare la guerra settaria con assassini di rappresaglia contro gli arabi
sunniti.
–
Il presidente americano Bush ha incontrato Abdul Aziz
al-Hakim, leader del partito sciita appoggiato dagli iraniani, e incontrerà
Tariq al-Hashemi, leader del partito arabo sunnita moderato; a fine novembre ha
incontrato i leader dei paesi sunniti del MO a cui è stato chiesto di far
pressione sugli arabi sunniti perché appoggino Maliki.
–
In un memorandum il consigliere per la sicurezza di Bush,
Hadley, fa presente che gli USA possono appoggiare finanziariamente i gruppi
moderati.
–
Rischi del tentativo di formare una coalizione che
marginalizzi al-Sadr nel governo, facendo appello anche agli arabi sunniti:
spingerlo ad un’altra ribellione, come nel 2004, anche se non
è chiaro quale controllo eserciti ancora sulla sua milizia;
reazioni violente contro i partiti coinvolti nei negoziati da
parte degli altri leader dei propri gruppi etnici;
forte reazione del Grande ayatollah al-Sistani, il religioso
sciita più potente in Irak, che si è sempre adoperato per raccogliere le
fazioni sciite in lotta in una grande coalizione, che con i suoi 275 membri
controlla il parlamento.
Hashemi rischia di alienarsi altri membri del principale
blocco sunnita in parlamento.
–
Atra ipotesi: una coalizione extra-parlamentare che cooperi
con il governo di Maliki bypassando il parlamento governo su decisioni
importanti.
Nyt 061212
Iraqis
Consider Ways to Reduce Power of Cleric
By EDWARD WONG
BAGHDAD, Dec. 11 — After discussions with the
Bush administration, several
of Iraq’s major political parties are in talks to form a coalition whose aim is
to break the powerful influence of the radical Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr
within the government, senior Iraqi officials say.
– The talks are taking
place among the two main Kurdish groups, the most influential Sunni Arab party
and an Iranian-backed Shiite party that has long sought to lead the government.
– They have invited
Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki to join them. But Mr. Maliki, a conservative Shiite
who has close ties to Mr. Sadr, has held back for fear that the parties
might be seeking to oust him, a Shiite legislator close to Mr. Maliki said.
Officials involved in the talks say their aim
is not to undermine Mr. Maliki, but to isolate Mr. Sadr as well as firebrand
Sunni Arab politicians inside the government. Mr. Sadr controls a militia with an estimated 60,000
fighters that has rebelled twice against the American military and is
accused of widening the sectarian war with reprisal killings of Sunni Arabs.
The
Americans, frustrated with Mr. Maliki’s political dependence on Mr. Sadr, appear to be working hard to help build the new coalition. President Bush met last week in
the White House with Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of the Iranian-backed Shiite party,
and is to meet on Tuesday
with Tariq al-Hashemi,
leader of the Sunni Arab party. In late November, Mr. Bush and his top
aides met with leaders from Sunni countries in the Middle East to urge them to
press moderate Sunni Arab Iraqis to support Mr. Maliki.
The White House visits by Mr. Hakim and Mr.
Hashemi are directly related to their effort to form a new alliance, a senior
Iraqi official said.
Last month, Mr. Bush’s national security adviser, Stephen J. Hadley,
wrote in a classified memo that the Americans should press Sunni Arab and
Shiite leaders, especially Mr. Hakim, to support Mr. Maliki if he sought to
build “an alternative political base.” The memo noted that Americans could provide
“monetary support to moderate groups.”
Iraqi officials involved in the talks said
they had conceived of the coalition themselves after growing frustrated with
militant politicians.
“A number of key political parties, across the
sectarian-ethnic divide, recognize the gravity of the situation and have become
increasingly aware that their fate, and that of the country, cannot be held
hostage by the whims of the extreme fringe within their communities,” said Barham Salih, a deputy prime
minister and senior member of one of the major Kurdish parties.
Mr.
Sadr’s relationship with Mr. Maliki has shown signs of strain. On Nov. 30, Mr. Sadr
withdrew his 30 loyalists in Parliament and 6 cabinet ministers from the
government. Mr. Maliki called for them to return, but they said they
would do so only if Mr. Maliki and the Americans set a timetable for the
withdrawal of American troops. Mr. Sadr reiterated the demand with a fiery
message on Sunday.
Any plan to form a political alliance across
sectarian lines that
isolates Mr. Sadr and Sunni Arab extremists carries enormous risks.
American and Iraqi officials have worked to try to persuade Mr. Sadr to use
political power instead of force of arms to effect change. Though it is unclear whether Mr.
Sadr has total control over his militia, if he thinks he is being marginalized
within the government, he could ignite another rebellion like the two he led in
2004.
Some senior American commanders say that the
efforts to make peace with Mr. Sadr through politics may have failed, and that
a military assault on Sadr strongholds may be inevitable.
Falah Shanshal, a legislator aligned with Mr.
Sadr, on Monday denounced the idea of a new coalition. “We’re against any new
bloc, new front or new alliance,” he said. “We have to make unity between us,
to be one front against terrorism and to liberate the country from the
occupation.”
Iraqi officials say that the other main risk is a potential
backlash against the parties involved in the talks from other leaders in
their own ethnic or sectarian populations.
– For Mr. Hakim and Mr. Maliki, any bid to join Sunni Arabs in an alliance against Mr. Sadr
could invoke the wrath of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most powerful
Shiite cleric in Iraq. Since the toppling of Saddam Hussein, the
ayatollah has worked hard
to bring various feuding Shiite factions into one greater Shiite coalition to
rule Iraq. That
coalition, including Mr. Sadr’s allies, is the dominant bloc in the 275-member
Parliament.
– Mr. Hashemi, the
Sunni Arab leader, risks alienating other members of the main Sunni bloc in
Parliament. Sunni Arab insurgents could also decide to
step up violence against Mr. Hashemi and his Iraqi Islamic Party. Three of Mr.
Hashemi’s siblings have already been killed.
Sunni Arab politicians not involved in the
talks said they were furious at the proposed alliance.
Because of those risks, Iraqi officials are
still debating whether to try to create the alliance within Parliament or to do
so outside Parliament, so that the existing coalitions would be preserved in
name. An alliance formed
outside Parliament might work with Mr. Maliki’s cabinet to make policy and
bypass the legislature on important decisions.
“There’s no changing of blocs in the
Parliament,” said Sheik Jalaladin al-Saghir, a senior Shiite legislator and
cleric who is one of Mr. Hakim’s deputies. “We’re talking about political
forces rallying in the street to support the political process.”
The parties involved in the talks fall short of being able to muster a
two-thirds vote in Parliament to oust Mr. Maliki and install a new government, as required
by the Constitution. If they pulled in other groups, like the centrist secular
party headed by Ayad Allawi, the former prime minister, they might be able to
get the required votes — a possibility, since they describe themselves
as moderates.
If the parties move to replace Mr. Maliki as prime minister, one
possible candidate would be Mr. Hakim’s deputy, Adel Abdul Mehdi,
who was favored by the White House last spring to take the top job. He lost out when Mr. Sadr, whose
family has long feuded with Mr. Hakim’s, threw his support behind Mr. Maliki’s
group, the Islamic
Dawa Party, in a vote within the Shiite coalition.
The parties trying to form the new alliance
approached Mr. Maliki a couple of days ago to ask him to join them, said the
Shiite legislator who is close to the prime minister. Senior officials in the
Islamic Dawa Party balked, saying that such a move would break the Shiite
coalition, anger Ayatollah Sistani and possibly pave the way for Mr. Hakim to
push Mr. Maliki from his job in favor of Mr. Abdul Mehdi.
“Everyone knows Hakim wants Adel to be prime
minister; it’s no secret,” said the legislator, who spoke on the condition of
anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss Mr. Maliki’s deliberations.
“Saying you want to pull Maliki away from the extremists might just be a
beautiful cover for the real goal of dropping him.”
The political jockeying unfolded as violence
continued in Iraq. The country’s
largest oil refinery, in the town of Bayji, remained shut because of
insurgent threats to workers. At least 46 bodies were discovered Monday
across Baghdad, an Interior Ministry official said. At least eight Iraqis were
killed and more than a dozen wounded in other violent incidents. The American
military announced that three soldiers had been killed by a roadside bomb in
Baghdad on Sunday.
Also in the capital, 20 gunmen wearing Iraqi
Army uniforms robbed a bank truck carrying the equivalent of $1 million.
Abdul Razzaq al-Saiedi and Qais Mizher
contributed reporting.
Copyright
2006 The New York Times Company