Dopo il colpo al Cairo – Gli Usa non devono togliere gli aiuti al nuovo governo egiziano/Cos’è un colpo? in gioco aiuti per

    JOHNSON

Tesi WSJ: Il recente colpo in Egitto arresta temporaneamente lo sprofondamento, ma non garantisce che non accada in futuro; tutto dipende dalla saggezza dei generali che nel passato non si sono dimostrati molto saggi. Il governo Morsi ha rivelato incompetenza e strisciante autoritarismo.

Riportate le posizioni di Fouad Ajami dell’Hoover Institution:

–       C’è una seconda chance per gli USA, benché impopolari in Egitto, con $1,3MD di aiuti militari annuali si comperano l’accesso ai militari; gli USA possono fare di più per far accedere l’Egitto ai mercati, ai prestiti e ai capitali di investimento.

–       I FM, ora impopolari, ma che sono ancora il singolo maggior partito, potrebbero reagire anche militarmente e tornare al potere se chi prede ora il potere non riuscirà a risolvere i numerosi problemi dell’Egitto.

–       Qualsiasi governo di transizione cercherà denaro e petrolio dai paesi del Golfo e dal FMI.

–       I milioni di egiziani scesi in piazza protestano anche contro la cronica mancanza di combustibili e alimentari, e la crisi economica.

–       Dato che secondo la legislazione USA non può essere dato un aiuto ad un governo installato con un colpo militare è in corso negli USA uno scontro su come definire il ruolo dei militari egiziani nella cacciata del presidente Mohammed Morsi;

–       in gioco circa $1,56 MD che gli Usa danno annualmente all’Egitto, e che vanno per la maggior parte ai militari.

–       Il presidente della commissione di intelligence della Camera, repubblicano: Obama dovrebbe chiedere al Congresso di modificare la legge in modo da continuare a dare denaro all’Egitto, i militari sono l’unica forza di stabilizzazione in Egitto.

–       Obama non ha definito un colpo il rovesciamento di Morsi.

–       il senatore rep. McCain (Arizona): sì è un colpo, è la seconda volta che i militari intervengono in 2 anni e ½; è un indice della mancanza di leadership e influenza da parte degli USA, dato che abbiamo chiesto ai militari egiziani di non farlo; occorre sospendere gli aiuti, fino ad una nuova costituzione e a nuove elezioni.

–       Il sen. democratico, Menendez, presidente commissione Esteri del senato: usare gli aiuti, quelli non ancora erogati quest’anno, come leva per costringere i militari a avviare una veloce transizione civile.

–       Le fratture evidenziate all’interno del partito Nour potrebbero portare al blocco delle nomine per le maggiori cariche politiche.

–       [A seguito delle forti manifestazioni di massa a sostegno di Morsi, è importante sia per i militari che per la coalizione NSF mantenere l’appoggio del partito al-Nour per un governo ad interim, che consentirebbe un appoggio più ampio, comprendenti partiti laici e islamici.

–       [Aggiornamento AGI. IT, 08 luglio 2013: al-Nour, secondo partito salafita egiziano, si é ritirato dai negoziati per la formazione del governo dopo il golpe che ha portato alla destituzione del presidente Mohamed Morsi.]

–       Proposte iniziali già superate:

–       Mohamed ElBaradei, leader del raggruppamento National Salvation Front (NSF) candidato vice-presidente.

–       Bahaa-Eldin è tra i 4 fondatori del partito Socialdemocratico, partito di opposizione, laico e liberale in economia; è stato parlamentare e ha diretto l’autorità egiziana per gli investimenti; ha fatto parte del board della Banca Centrale egiziana, e ha diretto l’autorità di regolamento finanziario del governo, da cui si è dimesso dopo le rivolte del 2011. Ha avuto un seggio nel primo parlamento post-rivoluzionario nel 2012.

–       Interrogativi degli esperti (Steven Cook, esperto su Egitto e MO al Council on Foreign Relations /Jon Alterman, direttore per il MO al Center for Strategic and International Studies) sulle capacità politiche di ElBaradei, per trovare una sintesi alle rivendicazioni contraddittorie e quindi sulla sua capacità di sopravvivenza politica.

–       La candidatura a primo ministro di ElBaradei è stata cancellata all’ultimo minuto, per l’obiezione del Partito Nour, che lo accusa di passate dichiarazioni contro gli islamisti.

–       Il presidente ad interim, nominato dai militari, Adly Mansour, deve ancora formalmente nominare il primo ministro e il vice.

–       Bahaa-Eldin: prima di accettare voglio conoscere quale autorità viene assegnata al primo ministro, e quali relazioni tra il primo ministro, il presidente e i militari.

–       Nessuna dichiarazione pubblica di ElBaradei (che si è dato per ammalato).

–       Continuano manifestazioni di massa pro-Morsi (Nasr, un sobborgo del Cairo, moschea di Raba; e anti-Morsi, in piazza Tahrir dove il movimento Tamarrod – che ha dato il via alle proteste due mesi fa’ (vedi scheda specifica) – ha invitato a tenere le piazze in tutto l’Egitto.

After the Coup in Cairo –The U. S. shouldn’t cut off aid to a new Egyptian government.

The latest military coup in Egypt stops a slide into one abyss but is hardly a guarantee that it will avoid a future one. A better future will depend on the wisdom of the kind of generals who have not proven to be very wise in the past.

The generals led by chief of the armed forces Abdul Fatah al-Sisi deposed President Mohammed Morsi, the man from the Muslim Brotherhood who was elected only a year ago. His election was the best feature of his rule, which had descended into incompetence and creeping authoritarianism.

Hoover Institution fellow Fouad Ajami on Egypt’s latest military coup and the prospects for a return to democratic rule.

–       Mr. Morsi won the election narrowly over a Mubarak-era political leftover, but he soon reinforced fears that the Brotherhood would use its new power to build an Islamist dictatorship. He tried to claim near-absolute powers by decree to force through a draft constitution written by Islamists and boycotted by everyone else.

–       The result was political polarization, with the opposition and military uniting against the Brotherhood supporters who were Mr. Morsi’s last defenders. The millions of Egyptians who took to the streets were also protesting chronic gas and food shortages and a sinking economy. The uprising shows that the worst fate for Islamists can be to take power and thus be accountable for results. Unlike Iran in 1979, Egypt retains enough competing power centers such as a secular business class and judiciary to prevent an Islamist revolution.

–       Yet a military coup riding mass protests carries its own risks to future stability. One danger is the reaction of the Brotherhood, which is still the strongest single political party. The secretive group renounced armed struggle in the 1970s. But that could change if its leaders conclude that democracy works for everyone except for them.

–       Adly Mansour, a judge and interim president sworn in Thursday, called the Brotherhood “part of the nation.” But at the same time the military closed down pro-Brotherhood TV stations and put out warrants for the arrest of the party’s senior leaders. The Brotherhood is unpopular now, but as memories fade it could return to power with a vengeance if Egypt’s next rulers are also unable to fix the country’s many problems.

–       A more hopeful sign is that General Sisi gathered prominent opposition and Coptic Christian and Muslim leaders to announce a new “roadmap” for Egypt’s future. The roadmap proposes, among other steps, a broadly representative committee to rewrite the constitution and to form a technocratic government.

General Sisi is also promising new elections, albeit without a timetable.

–       Mohamed ElBaradei, a prominent (and anti-American) secular leader, and the hardline Islamic Salafist Nour Party, a rival to the Brotherhood, have publicly backed the military plan.

–       The generals don’t seem eager to govern directly, especially after they mismanaged the transition after Hosni Mubarak’s 2011 ouster until Mr. Morsi’s election.

–       Civilians were tried in military courts and abused in custody. As crime worsened and the economy stalled, public ire turned against the generals.

–       It will do so again without more enlightened leadership that focuses on economic revival and a political transition to a system of checks and balances.

–       Any transition government will no doubt seek money and oil from the Gulf states as well as an early deal with the International Monetary Fund to make up for Egypt’s rapidly declining currency reserves.

America can also do more than it has. The Obama Administration has been caught trailing events at every turn, supporting Mr. Mubarak before abruptly throwing him over, and then embracing Mr. Morsi despite his authoritarian turn.

–       President Obama stayed quiet throughout the latest crisis, finally issuing an anodyne call Wednesday night for "a democratic political order with participation from all sides and all political parties—secular and religious, civilian and military."

–       Mr. Obama also requested a review of U. S. aid to Egypt, but cutting that off now would be a mistake. Unpopular as America is in Egypt, $1.3 billion in annual military aid buys access with the generals. U. S. support for Cairo is written into the Camp David peace accords with Israel. Washington can also do more to help Egypt gain access to markets, international loans and investment capital. The U. S. now has a second chance to use its leverage to shape a better outcome.

–       Egyptians would be lucky if their new ruling generals turn out to be in the mold of Chile’s Augusto Pinochet, who took power amid chaos but hired free-market reformers and midwifed a transition to democracy. If General Sisi merely tries to restore the old Mubarak order, he will eventually suffer Mr. Morsi’s fate.

A version of this article appeared July 4, 2013, on page A10 in the U. S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: After the Coup in Cairo.

Washington Debates What to Call Egyptian Military’s Role in Morsi Ouster – Was It a Coup? Billion-Dollar Aid at Stake

WASHINGTON—As protests continue in Egypt, a rhetorical battle over how to characterize the Egyptian military’s role in the ouster of President Mohammed Morsi is heating up—with potentially billion-dollar stakes for Cairo.

–       At issue is the fate of about $1.56 billion in annual U. S. aid to Egypt, which mostly goes to support the Egyptian military.

–       Under U. S. law, that foreign aid can’t be sent to a government installed by way of a military coup. While a portion of U. S. aid for this fiscal year has already been allocated, future payments could be deemed illegal if the U. S. determines that Mr. Morsi’s ouster constituted a coup.

–       For backers of Mr. Morsi, there is little doubt what happened. Gehad el Hadad, a spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood, told ABC News that there is a "military junta on TV, tanks on the streets…it’s every ingredient of a full police state."

Mr. el Hadad said "there is no Plan B" and vowed that the religious group would resist any political solution that did not restore Mr. Morsi to power. "It’s been too long and this country has been robbed of its freedoms. I’m not willing to let my son and my daughter inherit a state in that mess. I will stand in front of that tank even if it rolls on our dead bodies," he said.

–       Egypt’s ambassador to the U. S., who was appointed by the Morsi government, said the military intervention was "absolutely not" a coup.

"Egypt has not undergone a military coup and it is certainly not run by the military. Today there is an interim president in place," Mohammed Tawfik said on ABC’s "This Week." He said the goal is to create a "truly democratic, pluralistic society" and avoid the mistakes that President Morsi made. Fresh elections would be called "as quickly as we possibly can put it together," Mr. Tawfik said.

–       A former Egyptian ambassador to the U. S., Nabil Fahmy, also said the military’s intervention was in response to popular protests against Mr. Morsi and wasn’t a military coup. On NBC’s "Meet the Press," he likened the protests in Egypt to "fifty or sixty million people" protesting on Capitol Hill.

–       Top U. S. lawmakers wrestled with whether to call it a coup or not. Rep. Mike Rogers (R., Mich.), the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said President Barack Obama should ask Congress to tweak U. S. law to allow U. S. aid to continue despite the military’s intervention.

"I would not try to circumvent the law by calling this something it is not," he said on CNN’s "State of the Union" show. "I think there’s a great case to be made here that we should continue to support the military, the one stabilizing force in Egypt," he said.

–       Mr. Obama has said he would review aid to Egypt, but hasn’t described Mr. Morsi’s overthrow as a coup.

–       Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.), often a vocal critic of the Obama administration’s foreign policy, said on "Face the Nation" on CBS that "it was a coup, and it was the second time in 2½ years that we’ve seen the military step in."

–       Sen. McCain said it was an "indicator of the lack of American leadership and influence since we urged the military not to do that, and reluctantly I believe that we have to suspend aid until such time as there is a new constitution and free and fair election."

–       Sen. Robert Menendez (D., N. J.), the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said U. S. aid should be used overtly as leverage in order to get Egypt, and especially the military, to start carrying out the civilian transition quickly and completely.

While the U. S. has already paid Egypt some money, "by no means" has the U. S. paid the "overwhelming" amount, he said on NBC’s "Meet the Press."

"This is an opportunity to have a pause, and say to the Egyptians, you have an opportunity to come together, you have to have the military understand that’s what we’re looking for, a transition right away, as soon as possible," Sen. Menendez said.

Prominent opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei canceled his scheduled Sunday appearance on "Meet the Press," citing a fever and laryngitis, according to NBC. It had been reported Saturday that Mr. ElBaradei had been named as the country’s interim prime minister, but Egypt’s new leaders then backtracked from that assertion. According to "Meet the Press" host David Gregory, Mr. ElBaradei told him that he still expected to be named to the post as early as Sunday.

—Jonathan House contributed to this article.