Irak, elezioni, fazioni, sciiti Nyt 05-12-09
Con l’avvicinarsi delle elezioni parlamentari la potente coalizione sciita irachena mostra segni di tensione
Edward Wong
L’eventuale
frattura della coalizione elettorale religiosa sciita offre chance per
la guida di un nuovo governo, con alleati tra i partiti arabo-sunniti e
curdi, all’ex primo ministro Ayad Allawi, o all’ex favorito del
Pentagono Ahamd Chalabi.
In lotta tra loro per
la conquista delle posizioni nel futuro governo i 18 partiti sciiti
conservatori della United Iraqi Alliance, i cui maggiori partiti sono
sostenuti dall’Iran, e che viene data per vincente alle prossime
elezioni parlamentari (si calcola posa conquistare 100-120 seggi).
Tre partiti ne costituiscono il nucleo: Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, le organizzazioni Dawa e Sadr.
Forte
astio tra il Consiglio supremo e l’Organizzazione Sadr, risalenti alla
rivalità tra il padre di Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, presidente del Consiglio
supremo e il padre di al-Sadr.
Diversi leader della
coalizione se ne sono andati ed hanno formato loro partiti; calo del
consenso tra gli elettori moderati, e tra i 4 maggiori ayatollah, i
marjaiyah.
Solo uno di questi, ayatollah Bashir al-Najafi, ha apertamente appoggiato la coalizione.
Al-Sistani diversamente da gennaio, non si è speso direttamente a favore.
La
coalizione sciita ha perso di immagine in seguito alle notizie sui
rapimenti e torture di civili arabo sunniti, operati dalla milizia
sciita.
Se gli sciiti religiosi rimarranno uniti potranno
avere il diritto di veto sulla formazione del governo: occorrono 275
seggi per la formazione del governo.Nyt 05-12-09
Iraq’s Powerful Shiite Coalition Shows Signs of Stress as Parliamentary Elections Loom
By EDWARD WONG
of this Shiite holy city tried to stay on message when asked about his
party’s position on the hottest of the country’s hot-button issues –
the American troop presence.
"If the Americans feel they’re ready to withdraw from Iraq, they will withdraw," the governor, Assad Abu Galal al-Taiee, a party official in the main Shiite coalition in the coming parliamentary elections, said to rival politicians and reporters.
His aides handed out fliers demanding "the pullout of the occupier and the setting of a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq."
Sadr, a young cleric who has led two rebellions against the Americans,
vowed that "the occupier won’t grab our Iraq and its resources as long
as we are alive."
United Iraqi Alliance, a coalition of 18 conservative Shiite parties –
the largest of which are backed by Iran – remains the centerpiece of
Shiite politics and is expected to garner more votes on Dec. 15 than
any other single coalition or party. It has long
been vulnerable to infighting, but its members have managed to pull
together at critical moments, as when they nominated Ibrahim al-Jaafari
as prime minister last February.
rivalries have grown more heated and the potential for an irreparable
split is greater, Iraqi and Western officials say. Many coalition
members have broken away and started their own parties, and there has
been a palpable drop in support among moderate voters and the leading
ayatollahs, who are disenchanted with the performance of the current Shiite government.
A
fracturing of the conservative coalition could set the conditions for a
realignment of Iraq’s political spectrum, creating an opening for a
more secular Shiite candidate like the former prime minister, Ayad
Allawi, or even Ahmad Chalabi, the former Pentagon favorite, to
assemble enough allies to claim the top spot in the new government.
and is watching closely to see whether the religious Shiites will
maintain a grip on power, and what kind of influence Iran will wield
over the new government.
triumphal moment for the Shiites, who make up about 60 percent of
Iraq’s population but have been denied sovereign rule since colonial
powers pieced together the country from remnants of the Ottoman Empire
after World War I.
instrumental in pushing for popular elections than Grand Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani, the most revered Shiite cleric in Iraq,
who lives on an alleyway near the golden-domed Shrine of Ali here. Two
years ago, the reclusive ayatollah cajoled the White House into setting
up elections, and Dec. 15 was expected to be the day that his
behind-the-scenes engineering finally paid off.
Dabagh himself was part of the Shiite coalition in last January’s
elections for an interim government. But he has now formed his own
party and taken six other coalition members with him. One
of his platform planks is to place technocrats in critical government
positions rather than make political appointments, which he accuses the
Shiite coalition of having done.
coalition’s support is greatest here in dusty Najaf, the spiritual
heart of Shiite Islam, where brown-robed clerics from the Hawza, the
venerable Shiite seminary, stride through the streets with Korans in
hand. White campaign banners flutter along virtually every block of the
major avenues, some with the coalition’s symbol, a lit candle, or its
ballot number, 555.
because it gathers together qualified and religious people," said
Mahmoud Hadi, 35, an accountant clutching a briefcase at a bus stop.
"We want security for all Iraqis, but especially for the Shiites
because they are targeted."
a telling lack of support from the top four ayatollahs, known as the
marjaiyah. Only one of them, Ayatollah Bashir al-Najafi, has openly
endorsed the coalition. Last January, Ayatollah Sistani threw his weight behind the alliance, allowing his image to be used on its campaign posters. This time, perhaps disappointed by the government’s performance, he has offered only an implicit endorsement.
image of the coalition has been tarred by growing evidence that
government security forces made up of Shiite militia members have
abducted, tortured and killed Sunni Arab civilians.
is not clear what electoral clout the moderates wield, but in a recent
campaign speech in Baghdad, Prime Minister Jaafari felt compelled to
address their concerns, saying, "We can’t compare the violations that
took place recently with the ones that occurred under Saddam, and with
the crimes and the millions of victims of that regime."
The
shortcomings of the current rulers may lead some Shiites, especially
the less religious ones, to stay home on election day, or to cast their
votes for Mr. Allawi or for politicians who have split off from the Shiite coalition.
major threat to the coalition may come from within. Three parties – the
Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, Dawa and the Sadr
Organization – form its nucleus. A deep enmity exists between the Supreme
Council and the Sadr Organization, dating to a rivalry between the
father of the Supreme Council’s leader, Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, and Mr.
Sadr’s father.
Given all the schisms,
even if the coalition were to get 100 to 120 seats in the Parliament,
as expected, it could fracture during the political jockeying that will
take place in the formation of the new government.
If
the religious Shiites stay together, they will wield veto power over
any proposed government, since a two-thirds vote of the 275 members of
Parliament is needed for the executives to be installed.
But
if entire blocs of the coalition defect, then it will be easier for
politicians such as Mr. Allawi or Mr. Chalabi to cobble together a
patchwork of allies among the various Shiite, Sunni Arab and Kurdish
parties.
Copyright 2005The New York Times