Usa, Centro Asia,
Kazakistan, energia Nyt 06-05-06
Cheney, in visita in Kazakhistan, a guado in una
battaglia per l’energia
ILAN GREENBERG e ANDREW
E. KRAMER
Gli USA contendono alla Russia energia e influenza
nei paesi ex URSS del Centro Asia – tra le maggiori regioni del mondo di riserve
energetiche – avvicinandosi a paesi come
Kazakistan e Azerbaijan, criticati per le violazioni ai diritti umani.
Gli USA cercano di mantenere la propria presenza militare
nell’area, dopo l’espulsione delle sue truppe dall’Uzbekistan; a rischio la
base americana in Kirghizistan.
Il quotidiano russo
Kommersant di fronte alle accuse di Cheney a Mosca di servirsi dell’energia per
“intimidire e ricattare” ha parlato di “inizio della seconda guerra fredda”, per
l’energia e le sfere di influenza, e non più su questioni ideologiche.
-
Gli
USA cercano di indebolire la Russia, di non farne avvantaggiare la Cina, e di incoraggiare
rotte alternative all’Iran, rivale per l’influenza nella regione.
Con il declino delle riserve nell’Artico, Gazprom sta divenendo
sempre più dipendente dal gas del Centro Asia: il Turkmenistan, che si trova
tra l’Iran e il Kazakistan, ha alcune delle maggiori riserve mondiali di gas
naturale, secondo solo alla Russia tra i paesi ex URSS.
-
Gran
parte dei 10mn. di petrolio del bacino del Caspio si trovano nel territorio del
Kazakistan, che produce attualmente 1,2mn. b/g, si prevede ne produrrà 3mn. per
il 2015. -
Il
Kazakistan, che confina con Cina e Russia e a sud condivide con l’Iran il Mar
Caspio, può scegliere tra varie opzioni. Diversi progetti proposti al Kazakistan
prevedono il trasferimento del suo petrolio e gas attraverso Russia, Turchia,
Iran, Cina, Pakistan e anche Afghanistan. -
Il
presidente kazako, Nazarbajef, si è detto interessato ad un gasdotto proposto
dagli USA passante per l’Azerbaijan e poi per la Turchia, evitando la Russia e
il controllo di Gazprom. -
Lo
stesso giorno l’operatore dell’oleodotto nazionale ha garantito alla Russia l’invio
del petrolio russo alla Cina attraverso il suo nuovo oleodotto Atasu-Alashankou.
A loro volta gli USA apriranno in autunno condotte per petrolio e gas
dal Caspio alla Turchia, bypassando la Russia; chiedono al Kazakistan di impegnarsi
al trasporto di maggiori quantità di petrolio tramite questa rotta verso occidente.
Nyt 06-05-06
Cheney,
Visiting Kazakhstan, Wades
Into Energy Battle
By ILAN GREENBERG and ANDREW E. KRAMER
ALMATY, Kazakhstan, May 5 —
– A day after chastising
Moscow for its use of oil and natural gas as "tools for intimidation and
blackmail," Vice President Dick Cheney visited Kazakhstan on Friday to promote export routes that bypass Russia
and directly supply the West.
With his comments, Mr. Cheney waded into
a messy geopolitical struggle
for energy and influence in the countries of the former Soviet
Union, rapidly becoming one of the world’s
largest-producing regions.
The United States
backs efforts to weaken Russia’s
grip by building new export routes for the enormous energy reserves of Central Asia, much of which now must cross Russian territory to reach ports in
the Black Sea or pipelines to Europe.
– Mr. Cheney’s visit to
Kazakhstan, on Russia’s southern rim, highlighted the balancing of United
States interests, trying to counter Russian dominance in energy matters by
cozying up to states like Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan that have spotty human
rights records and limited democracy — and plenty of oil.
"The United
States is trying to strike a difficult balance," said Tanya
Kostello, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a New
York risk consultancy. "It is trying to
encourage the regime in Kazakhstan
to move toward democracy while maintaining the economic ties."
– The Kazakh president,
Nursultan A. Nazarbayev, won a third six-year term in December
2005, with 91 percent of the vote in an election that international observers
said was flawed. Two opposition politicians have been murdered in six months,
raising the specter of instability.
–
Kazakhstan produced 1.2 million
barrels of oil a day last year but is expected to pump 3 million a day by 2015.
On Friday, Mr. Cheney met privately with
officials from the Kazakh government, ending the day with a dinner with Mr.
Nazarbayev in Astana, the Kazakh capital, according to American officials.
Asked afterward his opinion of democracy
in Kazakhstan,
the vice president endorsed the Nazarbayev government without qualification.
"I have previously expressed my admiration for what has transpired here in Kazakhstan over the past 15
years," he said, "both in terms of economic development as well as
political development."
– In Russia,
reaction to Mr. Cheney’s speech on Thursday was sharp.
Kommersant, a major daily, called it "the beginning of a second cold war," this time in a struggle over energy and competing
spheres of influence rather than ideology.
– In an echo of the 19th-century Great Game scramble for colonial
possessions in Central Asia, the United States is seeking to weaken Russia’s control over oil and natural gas
while also keeping China from
stepping in to the breach. It is also encouraging export options that avoid Iran, another longstanding rival for
regional influence.
– Meanwhile Gazprom, the Russian natural gas
monopoly, is growing increasingly reliant on Central Asian natural gas
as its fields in the Arctic decline. Turkmenistan,
wedged between Iran and Kazakhstan, has some of the
world’s largest reserves of natural gas.
– Because Kazakhstan borders China
and Russia, and shares the
Caspian Sea with Iran
to the south, Mr. Nazarbayev has many options.
– Under several proposed
pipeline routes, Kazakh oil and gas would be sent through Russia, Turkey, Iran,
China, Pakistan and even Afghanistan.
– On Thursday, Kazakhstan’s
energy minister cheered the United States and Europe by saying he was interested in building a gas
pipeline westward to Azerbaijan and then to Turkey, bypassing Russia and
loosening Gazprom’s lock on this trade.
– But that same day, Kazakhstan’s national pipeline operator issued a
guarantee to Russia to ship
Russian oil to China
through its new Atasu-Alashankou oil pipeline.
In this seesaw struggle for influence,
the United States is set to score a victory this fall with the opening of pipelines carrying oil and natural
gas from the Caspian Sea to Turkey,
again bypassing Russia.
With those pipes in place, American
officials like Assistant Secretary of State Richard A. Boucher, who is
traveling this week with Mr. Cheney, have called for Kazakhstan
to commit to transporting more of its oil along this westward route.
– Some modern players of the Great Game argue that energy sales to China paradoxically serve American interests,
because oil that China pumps
from Kazakhstan is oil that
it will not buy on the spot market in the Persian Gulf,
purchases that could push up world prices.
– The United States is also concerned about maintaining
its military presence in Central Asia.
The need became acute after Uzbekistan reacted to American
criticism of its violent suppression of a demonstration last summer by expelling the Americans from an
air base supporting operations in Afghanistan.
– The United States’
other Central Asian base, in Kyrgyzstan, also seems to be on wobbly
foundations, with the government
there demanding higher rent payments and discussing whether to expel the
Americans — cheered on by Russia and the Chinese, analysts say.
– Kazakhstan is the largest and, many
say, most stable country in the Caspian Sea
region. The entire basin contains roughly 10 billion barrels of oil, much of
it in Kazakhstan
territory. Kazakhstan is second only to Russia in oil reserves among the countries
once part of the Soviet Union.
Mr. Cheney’s visit was the latest
high-level United States
delegation in Kazakhstan,
where support for Mr. Nazarbayev’s energy policies are balanced with careful
criticism of his autocratic rule.
Opposition leaders say they are emboldened by Mr. Cheney’s pointed
comments on Thursday in the speech in Lithuania, when he praised democratic advances
in former Soviet states like Georgia
and Ukraine, in spite of
resistance from Russia.
Mr. Cheney said President Bush, who is
to meet with the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, in July, "will make
the case, clearly and confidently, that Russia has nothing to fear and
everything to gain from having strong, stable democracies on its borders."
Opposition leaders here were to meet
with Mr. Cheney for an hour after lunch on Saturday, just before Mr. Cheney’s
departure to Croatia, the final leg of his three-country
tour.
"We’re going to try to explain the
deplorable situation in this country," Oraz Jandosov, co-chairman of the
Democratic Party of Kazakhstan, said in an interview. "After Cheney’s
speech yesterday, it will be difficult for him to be unsympathetic to us."
Still, Mr. Jandosov said several
colleagues would miss the talks because the authorities had prevented them from
traveling to the capital.
Ilan Greenberg reported from Almaty for
this article, and Andrew E. Kramer from Moscow.
The New York Times