Asia centrale, Kazakistan, petrolio, competizione
Capitali esteri aiutano il Kazakistan a sviluppare la sua economia
Maggio 2011, il Kazakistan ha ospitato il 4o Forum economico, il forum del Consiglio degli investitori esteri (attivo dal 1998), la conferenza annuale della BERD (Banca Europea di Ricostruzione e Sviluppo), ed ha lanciato un altro forum per gli investimenti.
– Il PIL del Kazakistan, molto maggiore della somma di quello degli altri quattro paesi centro-asiatici, sta crescendo del 6-7% l’anno.
– II Kazakistan, fortemente dipendete dalle risorse naturali, ha approfittato della crisi finanziaria internazionale per accelerare le riforme economiche interne, e si è aperto a maggiori investimenti esteri, che si sono distribuiti su diversi setti economici; è passato dal 74o al 59o posto su 183 paesi nella graduatoria 2011 della Banca Mondiale per “facilità di fare affari”.
– I suoi piani di integrazione nell’economia internazionale offrono una possibilità in questo senso a tutto il Centro Asia.
– BERD ha investito oltre $5MD in Kazakistan, previsto un altro miliardo nel 2011. Stanzierà €2,8MD per progetti di investimento, che hanno mobilitato un flusso aggiuntivo di investimenti per €7MD;
o calcolando i capitali attratti dai partner BERD, si giunge ad investimenti complessivi di $14MD.
– Sono stati investiti $6,5 MD in infrastrutture, $3MD nel settore bancario; circa $2MD energia e minerali; oltre $2,5MD industria ed agricoltura.
– Dal 1993 il Kazakistan ha attratto Investimenti Esteri Diretti (IED) per oltre $122 MD.
– In programma lo sviluppo di infrastrutture interne e interregionali e la modernizzazione di gruppi industriali con maggiori IED;
– altro obiettivo l’efficienza energetica, il settore minerario e le fonderie assorbono oltre la metà dell’energia prodotta nel paese.
– Nei 20 anni di indipendenza (prossimo dicembre 2011) il Kazakistan ha prodotto circa 900 mn di tonnellate di petrolio; programmi del governo kazako di accrescere la produzione del 20% entro il 2015.
– I maggiori gruppi esteri del petrolio, attratti vent’anni fa’ dalla bonanza petrolifera kazaka, lamentano ora la crescente pressione del governo kazako, che sta cercando di porre sotto il controllo statale il settore, attualmente controllato dai gruppi occidentali, (su modello della tattica del governo russo che nel 2007 ha fatto pressione su Shell perché cedesse a Gazprom la sua quota di controllo nel progetto Sakhalin 2).
– Il rallentamento delle attività dei gruppi occidentali alimenta la competizione per il petrolio kazako e la possibilità di scontro tra quelli russi e cinesi e indiani.
– Qualsiasi sia l’esito della battaglia, il Kazakistan starà con il vincitore.
o I giacimenti di Kashagan sono stimati i maggiori del paese, con riserve per 4,6 mn. di tonnellate; prevista una produzione a regime di oltre 1,5 mn. b/g.
o 2007 e 2008 ha chiesto a ENI, operatore del progetto da $57MD di Kashagan sul Caspio, miliardi di $ di risarcimento per perdite imputate a ENI per i continui rinvii dell’attuazione del progetto, dal 2008, al 2011 ed ora, come dichiarato dall’amministratore delegato di ENI, Scaroni, non prima della fine 2012. Il governo kazako ha avvertito che non rimborserà i costi di estrazione se inizierà dopo il 2013.
o Grazie alla tattica delle pressioni nel 2008, KazMunaiGas, il gruppo statale kazako del petrolio e del gas, ha aumentato dall’8 al 16,8% la propria quota nel progetto di Kashagan, portandola alla pari di quella di Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobile, ENI e Total, i maggiori operatori di NCOC (North Caspian Operating Company) che sviluppa il progetto.
o Non avendo il ministero kazako del petrolio e del gas approvato i suoi piani, la filiale di Shell ha comunicato ad aprile la sospensione delle sue attività a Kashagan.
o Se ne andato da Kashagan anche Norwegian Asker Solution; starebbe pensando di vendere i propri asset in Kazakistan anche l’americana ConocoPhillips, che ha l’8,4% a Kashagan.
– Il Kazakistan intende acquisire il 10% dei campi petroliferi di Karachaganak, (stima di 1,2 MD di tonnellate di petrolio e 1350 MD di m3 di gas) di un altro consorzio estero, il Karachaganak Petroleum Operating BV, che comprende British Gas, ENI, Chevron e il gigante russo Lukoil (il ministro del settore ha accennato alla possibilità di congelare il progetto, perché non corrisponde agli interessi economici del Kazakistan).
– Russia: il gruppo russo Lukoil ha comunicato in precedenza l’intenzione di partecipare al progetto di Kashagan.
– Cina: i suoi gruppi petroliferi hanno finora avuto poco peso nella produzione in Kazakistan, non oltre 1 mn. di tonn./anno; ora sembrano incoraggiati dal calo di interesse di quelli occidentali ad accrescere la propria presenza.
– India: primavera 2011, serie di accordi tra KazMunaiGas e Indian ONGC Videsh Ltd per esplorazione e sviluppo dei depositi petroliferi di Satpayev, nella regione kazaka sul Caspio.
Mentre l’India può trasportare il petrolio solo via mare, la Cina ha il vantaggio di una sviluppata rete di oleodotti e della vicinanza geografica.
By Roman Muzalevsky
– For Kazakhstan, May was full of economically and geopolitically significant developments worth exploring in the national, regional, and global contexts. The country hosted the 4th Economic Forum in Astana, designed to assess economic challenges facing the world economy and explore ways of shaping global economic development. It also held the forum of the Council of Foreign Investors, chaired by the Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, and the annual conference of the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). It further launched an investment forum in Astana.
– Yet, the economic significance of these events transcends the ability of Kazakhstan to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI) or develop a diversified economy still hostage to heavy reliance on the natural resource wealth. If anything, it demonstrates that Kazakhstan has consistently pushed for modernizing and integrating its economy with the global economic system in the wake and despite the global financial crisis.
In the logic of business resiliency, it has taken advantage of the global financial crisis to accelerate the process of domestic economic reforms, in part to more responsibly pursue the expansion of the country’s connectivity with the global economic and financial system.
– In domestic terms, the EBRD’s meeting in Astana and the Council of Foreign Investors’ session in Almaty may be construed to suggest possible plans by Kazakhstan to use the cities’ more rapidly developing economic infrastructures to facilitate a more even economic development throughout the country.
About 2,000 participants from more than 60 countries and leading financial and economic institutions attended the EBRD convention, while more than 3,000 participants from over 80 countries participated in the 4th Economic Forum held in Astana earlier this May. Approximately 200 guests also participated in the Council of Foreign Investors session.
– Kazakh Finance Minister Bolat Zhamishev reported that the EBRD has invested over US$5 billion in Kazakhstan, planning to inject about $1 billion into the country’s economy this year 2011 alone. The EBRD would also reportedly allocate 2.8 billion euros (US$4 billion) for investment projects, which have mobilized additional stream of investments into the Kazakh economy to the total of 7 billion euros.
– "Considering the additional funds attracted from the EBRD partners, these investments hit $14 billion," Zhamishev said.
o He confirmed that $6.5 billion was invested in infrastructure projects; $3 billion in the banking industry ($400 million went to small and medium businesses); about $2 billion in the energy and mineral resources sectors; more than $2.5 billion in industry and agriculture. In total, Kazakhstan has attracted more than $122 billion in FDI since 1993.
– It is not only the size but the distribution of the most recent FDI inflows into diverse sectors of the Kazakh economy that is particularly striking.
– Despite some pressures, Kazakhstan did not close its economy to the outside world in response to the global finance crisis, but opened up for more FDI while gambling on accelerated modernization of its resource-dependent economy. It has advanced from 74th to 59th place among 183 economies in the World Bank’s "Ease of Doing Business" report for 2011. Ernst & Young’s Investors Opinion Survey confirms considerable improvements in Kazakhstan’s investment climate. It showed, however, that more needs to be done to improve corporate governance, the legal and regulatory environment, as well as to develop better infrastructure and improve efficiency of production.
– Hence, Kazakhstan’s plans to develop domestic and cross-regional infrastructure and modernize industrial enterprises through more FDI are not only timely but also useful. "Further industrial development is impossible without modernization and updating of the country’s enterprises," Nazarbayev told the Council of Foreign Investors, which has operated in the country since 1998. He also emphasized the need for better energy conservation efforts. "Energy efficiency is our next pain point," Nazarbayev said, adding "So, just the mining and smelting complex of the country consumes more than half of energy produced in the country."
– In regional and global terms, Kazakhstan’s size and pace of economic development (its economy, now growing at the rate of about 6-7% annually, is considerably bigger than the rest of the four Central Asian economic combined) and its ambitious plans to integrate into wider global economic network hold an extraordinary potential to better bridge Central Asia with the rest of the world and exert a positive impact on the development of the region’s relatively less open or less successful economies. This would be impossible without the development of intra- and inter-regional infrastructure in the areas of energy, trade and transit, among others.
– Kazakhstan is also pushing for reforms in the global financial and economic system. During the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Summit chaired by Kazakhstan last year it proposed adopting a "Maastricht Plus" document as a guide for economic development after the global financial crisis. It has also suggested switching to a new global currency system based on "a single global monetary unit".
While shared by some distinguished experts, the idea did not gain enough traction given various complexities involved. Robert Alexander Mundell, Nobel Prize winner in economics, for instance, supported the idea. He explained Kazakhstan’s interests in contributing to the solutions of the global financial and economic challenges this way: "For a country that represents new markets, this is an excellent way to participate in the process. You then become not just a country-participant, but a country-reformer.".
The global financial downturn has thus not only enabled Kazakhstan to reassess its economic policies but also contribute, through its own experiences during the crisis, to currently evolving readjustments in the international financial system.
– Notable in the process has been its unyielding drive to accelerate domestic economic transformation and inclusion into global economic system not just despite but, indeed, because of the global financial crisis. Still facing daunting challenges internally and externally, it aspires to be a reformer from within and without. The meetings of the EBRD, the Foreign Investors’ Council, other investment forums in Kazakhstan and the country’s global and regional initiatives are a case in point. They show the country’s efforts to encourage further economic and financial reforms at home and abroad
Roman Muzalevsky is an international affairs and security analyst. He can be reached at muzalevsky@hotmail.com.
By Farkhad Sharip
– Kazakhstan, which marks its 20th year of independence this December, has produced around 900 million tonnes of oil over the last 20 years, according to recently released official data. Lyazzat Kiynov, deputy minister of the oil and gas industry, announced the government’s plans to increase oil output by 20% by 2015.
– Ironically, the breath-taking forecasts come at a time when major foreign operators on Kazakhstan’s vast oilfields increasingly question the rationality of doing business under the growing pressure from Kazakh oil authorities.
– In 2007 and 2008, Kazakhstani authorities launched a legal campaign against the Italian ENI Corp, operator of the US$57 billion Kashagan project in the Caspian Sea, seeking billions of dollars in compensation for losses to Kazakhstan’s economy allegedly caused by ENI repeatedly delaying the implementation of the project.
– Yet, the whole history of the prolonged rows around the Kashagan project points to the Kazakh government’s attempt to place the lucrative oil business under state control. In 2008, the national oil and gas company, KazMunaiGas, using pressure tactics, increased its share in the Kashagan project from 8% up to 16.8%. KazMunaiGas acquired a stake equal to that of Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobile, ENI and Total, major operators of the North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC), which develops the project.
– The move is conspicuously reminiscent of Russian tactics, which, in 2007, pressured Shell into ceding its controlling stake in the Sakhalin 2 project to Gazprom. In April this year, the Atyrau (West Kazakhstan) branch of Shell responsible for development of Kashagan announced the suspension of its activities following the disapproval of its plans by the oil and gas ministry of Kazakhstan.
– In late June, Norwegian Asker Solutions abandoned D Island in the Kashagan oilfield after its term of contract expired. Allegedly the US company ConocoPhillips, which holds an 8.4% share in Kashagan, is considering the sale of its assets in Kazakhstan.
– Paolo Scaroni, the chief executive director of ENI, announced during his recent visit to Astana that the first oil extraction at Kashagan will take place no earlier than at the end of 2012. The date was earlier postponed from 2008 to 2011. Worried by mounting costs of the project resulting from repeated delays of oil output, Kazakh authorities warned ENI executives that the Kazakh government will not reimburse the costs of oil extraction if it starts after 2013.
– Kashagan deposits, with estimated oil reserves of 4.6 billion tonnes, are considered to be the largest in Kazakhstan. After the second phase of its development is completed, Kashagan will produce more than 1.5 million barrels of crude per day. Kazakhstan’s toughening attitude toward foreign companies can be regarded as part of its policy of regaining state control over its oil sector, currently dominated by Western companies.
– Recently, Astana disclosed its intention to wring out from another foreign consortium – Karachaganak Petroleum Operating BV, which includes British Gas, ENI, Chevron and Russian oil giant Lukoil – 10% of shares to the Karachaganak fields, estimated to hold 1.2 billion tonnes of oil and 1.35 trillion cubic meters of gas. Talks on the deal are under way.
A prelude to this purchase was made by oil and gas minister Sauat Mynbayev who, speaking to journalists on the sidelines of the 24th meeting of the Council of Foreign Investors in Astana, hinted at the possible freezing of the Karachaganak project. The contract, concluded with the Karachaganak Petroleum Operating Consortium, he stated, does not fully correspond to the economic interests of Kazakhstan.
– Western companies, lured by the oil bonanza in western Kazakhstan nearly two decades ago, seemingly are increasingly becoming disillusioned in their expectations. The slackening activities of Western investors are only fanning the flame of rivalry for Kazakhstan’s oilfields between Russian and Chinese companies.
– For example, Lukoil earlier made clear its intention to participate in Kashagan project. Until now, China played a minor role in Kazakhstan’s oil sector. The overall annual oil output of Chinese companies in Kazakhstan does not exceed 1 million tonnes. Yet, the dwindling interest of Western oil producers in Kazakhstan is likely to encourage China to position itself for an even greater influence in the Central Asian nation.
– Last spring, KazMunaiGas and Indian ONGC Videsh Ltd signed a package of agreements on the exploration and development of Satpayev oil deposits in Kazakhstan’s sector of the Caspian. It should be taken into consideration, however, that India can rely only on maritime routes for the transportation of its oil, while China has an obvious advantage of a well-developed pipeline infrastructure and the geographical vicinity, which also facilitates the solution to transportation problems.
– Kazakh oilfields may thus turn into a battlefield where the interests of China, Russia and India will clash. Whatever may be the outcome of this struggle, Kazakhstan is poised to side with the eventual winner.
Farkhad Sharip is an independent journalist who lives in Alma-Aty, Kazakhstan.