Nota: a proposito della tesi che crescita Cina è un bluff
di carte.
Tesi Nicholas Lardy
(Institute for International Economics)
Ian
Christmas (IISI, Istituto int’le industria siderurgica):
-
2004 Cina ha aggiunto altri 50 milioni ton
capacità produttiva acciaio (= circa
2 volte il totale italiano –ndr) - 2005 aggiunge ancora di più,
salendo a 400 m t = 4 volte USA = 2 volte UE = consumo cinese previsto
per 2015 = 40% di consumi mondiali oggi.. - Produttori acciaio paventano grande
sovrapproduzione, caduta prezzi.Tentativi governo cinese di
mettere ordine nella crescita concentrando il settore sono finora falliti
per resistenze governi provinciali che favoriscono propri gruppi
siderurgici. - Tentativi WTO di ridurre eccessi di
capacità tagliando sussidi, falliti, per divergenze interessi tra
produttori (e relativi Stati). - Questi sono anni d’oro per industria
acciaio, per alta domanda indotta da forte espansione: previste vacche grasse
anche 2006. - MA “rischi” per sovracapacità, e perché 3
grandi gruppi minerari (Companhia Vale do Rio Doce – CVRD, Brasile, Rio
Tinto e BHP Billiton –entrambe GB) monopolizzano il 70%
dell’export di minerale di ferro, e stanno attuando politica monopolistica di
rialzo dei prezzi [+70% alcuni mesi fa: a proposito dello strapotere delle
multinazionali americane… ndr]. - Grandi gruppi siderurgici
rinunciano per ora a deferirle a organismi internazionali per pratiche
monopolistiche, e si muovono per acquisire il controllo diretto delle riserve
minerarie (Mittal – passaporto NL ma imprenditore indiano sta puntando
su miniere in Liberia).Domanda mondiale acciaio
2005 +3% a 998 mt; 2006 previsto +4-5% a 1040 mt.
Global
Industry Group Fears
Buildup
Could Hurt Prices
Despite
Growth in Demand
By PAUL
GLADER
Staff
Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
October 4,
2005; Page A6
SEOUL —
World steel industry leaders are worried that mounting overcapacity in China
could push down steel prices at some point, despite continued steady demand
growth for their products world-wide.
"In
coming years, there will be massive, massive excess capacity" in China,
said Nicholas Lardy, an expert on China and a senior fellow at the Institute
for International Economics in Washington, in a speech to a group of steel
industry executives at the International Iron and Steel Institute annual
meeting, which is being held in South Korea this week.
China
added about 50 million metric tons of steelmaking capacity in 2004 and will add more than that in
2005, taking that country’s annual steelmaking capacity to roughly 400 million
tons, according to Mr. Lardy. That is enough to meet the country’s annual
demand until 2015, he said. Mr. Lardy said government efforts in China to consolidate
steel capacity and limit expansion could take longer than expected, largely
because of resistance from Chinese provincial governments that seek to
foster local steelmakers.
The Chinese buildup comes at a time when
producers have stumbled in efforts to curb capacity growth elsewhere in the
world by cutting back on subsidies paid by governments. Talks at the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris aimed at ending
state subsidies have fallen apart as trade representatives couldn’t agree
upon how to implement changes. "These [talks] are not likely to restart in
the near future," said Ian Christmas, secretary general of the
IISI. "We believe it is still a real issue that, at some stage, if we want
a competitive dynamic and open business, we have to address."
In addition
to China, steel companies also are grappling with lofty prices for raw
materials and energy and face growing competition from rival materials such as
plastics, aluminum and cement in key markets such as automotive and
containers. And yet, the industry is also enjoying one of its strongest
periods of prices and profits as the result of a global commodity boom.
"We
are in a very prosperous industry and we believe the outlook for next year
is very positive," said Mr. Christmas. "We are not saying it is
all gloom and doom. We are saying there are risks and dangers going
forward."
Mr.
Christmas criticized the world’s three largest iron ore companies —
Brazilian mining giant Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, or CVRD, Rio Tinto and
BHP Billiton — for having a natural monopoly with 70% market share for
iron ore shipped across the oceans. Steelmakers use iron ore as an
ingredient to melt in their furnaces, mixing it with other materials, to create
steel.
"Their
current market behavior could be a threat to the long-term competitive
position of steel," said Mr. Christmas. He and other executives said
the organization doesn’t plan to raise anticompetitive issues against the iron
ore industry at international trade bodies. Instead, he said, steel
companies and others are seeking to buy up iron ore mines and bring more iron
ore into supply. Mittal Steel Co. of the Netherlands, for example, is
pursuing iron ore mines in Liberia.
The IISI
estimates steel demand in 2005 stands at 998 million metric tons, up 3%
globally from 2004. It expects demand to grow even more in 2006 with an
estimated 1.04 billion tons consumed, up 4% or 5% from 2005.