Berlino risoluta sul calendario del fondo di salvataggio dell’Europa
TOM FAIRLESS e SUDEEP REDDY
– Ombre sul vertice europeo della prossima settimana a causa dell’opposizione del presidente di Bundesbank, Weidemann, e altri alti funzionari tedeschi alla pressione internazionale ad ampliare a circa €750MD il fondo di salvataggio europeo, unendo il denaro del fondo permanente (€500 MD) con il denaro di quello temporaneo (€250MD), per proteggere Spagna e Italia dai problemi della Grecia.
– L’ampliamento del fondo per molti rappresentanti del G20 (ministri finanze e banchieri delle banche centrali) è la condizione per aumentare le risorse del FMI contro la crisi del debito; pressione in tal senso anche dal governatore della Banca del Messico.
o L’FMI a gennaio ha lanciato la raccolta di $500MD, oltre il doppio della sua capacità di prestito per proteggere i paesi deboli;
o I paesi disposti a fornire denaro, tra cui Cina e Giappone, chiedono che prima sia l’Europa ad aumentare le proprie difese.
– Weidemann, bene la seconda tranche di aiuti alla Grecia, occorre creare ora difese adeguate contro l’espandersi della crisi. Contro l’idea diffusa che la Germania si sarebbe comportata in modo egoistico rifiutando di aiutare i paesi in difficoltà:
o La maggior parte delle misure di contenimento dipendono dal sostegno finanziario della Germania.
– Alti funzionari del governo tedesco, cancelliera Merkel e ministro Finanze Schäuble compresi, non escludono un ampliamento del fondo di salvataggio dell’eurozona, ma pongono condizioni:
tra cui il completamento del bond swap del settore privato, che richiederà settimane.[1]
[1] la Grecia farà partire un’offerta, in base alla quale i creditori privati scambieranno i bond in loro in possesso con quelli nuovi di minor valore e con scadenze più lunghe. Il bond swap rientra negli accordi del nuovo pacchetto di salvataggio per la Grecia da 130 miliardi di euro, senza il quale Atene sarebbe andata in default.
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Dichiarazioni del governo tedesco sugli aiuti alla Grecia – Merkel: L‘Europa vince se vince l’Euro
– Approvato dal parlamento tedesco il secondo pacchetto di aiuti alla Grecia, con l’appoggio di SPD e Verdi:
o €130MD (di cui €30MD come garanzie per gli investitori privati per i prossimi investimenti in titoli greci) + €24,4MD del primo pacchetto di aiuti non usati, in totale €154,4MD.
o La Germania è disposta a mettere a versare per il Fondo di salvataggio permanente della UE, l’ESM, la sua quota di €22MD entro due anni (€11MD nel 2012, gli altri €11MD entro il 2013), anziché in 5 anni come precedentemente previsto.
o In totale l’ESM disporrà di €500MD.
I due pacchetti di aiuti alla Grecia
I. pacchetto, Grafici di sinistra
1a Su un totale di €11° MD, le quote promesse dai paesi dell’euro (€80MD),dall’FMI (€30MD)
1b Fondi finora erogati: e75MD, di cui €55MD dai paesi dell’Euro e €20MD dall’FMI
2. Confronto con gli altri pacchetti di aiuti:
– a. all’Irlanda: promessi €85 MD, di cui €40,2MD dai paesi UE (di cui €9MD dalla Germania) e €22,5 dall’FMI;
– dagli irlandesi €17,5MD come contributo e €4,8MD bilaterali.
b. al Portogallo, promessi €78MD, di cui €52MD dalla UE (€12MD dalla Germania), €26MD dall’FMI.
II. pacchetto, Grafici di destra
– 1. Dei €130MD promessi dall’ESFS, aiuti pubblici €100MD; dall’FMI un generico grande contributo; dei €130MD, €30 sono le garanzie per il cambio di titoli dei privati (lasciano quelli vecchi e ne comperano di nuovi a più lunga scadenza …);
– 2. ai €130 di cui sopra si aggiungono €107MD di abbattimento (rinuncia) del credito dei creditori privati.
–
Taglio del debito, €150 MD
– I. a destra, da parte dei creditori statali e istituzionali:
o paesi euro €53MD, come riduzione del tasso di interessi;
o BCE €55MD, i profitti derivanti dalla vendita di titoli vengono usati per ridurre il debito greco;
o Altri €20MD;
o FMI €22MD
– II. a sinistra, su €200MD di debito verso i creditori privati:
o Fondi, 34%;
o Banche greche 24%;
o altre banche europee 20%;
o fondi delle assicurazioni sociali greche;
o assicurazioni europee 7%
o abbattimento dei debiti per il 53,5% del valore nominale, pari a €107MD;
o + scambio di titoli per il rimanente 46,5%, per €€93MD, di cui €30MD in titoli ESFS; e €63MD di nuovi titoli di stato greci, a trent’anni, con un tasso medio del 3,65%.
– Divisioni interne alla maggioranza di governo, con astensioni da parte di Union[e] e FDP; il segretario generale CSU ha criticato la politica di salvataggio del governo, non esclude il fallimento della Grecia.
– Su pressione di rappresentanti CDU e FDP, il ministro degli Interni ha fatto marcia indietro sulla precedente dichiarazione: era meglio che la Grecia uscisse dall’euro; e ha votato a favore del secondo pacchetto alla Grecia.
Dubbi crescenti nella coalizione di governo che la Grecia possa essere salvata; il ministro Finanze non esclude un altro pacchetto dopo il 2014.
FEBRUARY 25, 2012
Berlin Is Firm on Europe Rescue-Fund Timing
By TOM FAIRLESS And SUDEEP REDDY
MEXICO CITY—German officials are pushing back against international pressure to expand a European rescue fund, casting a shadow over next week’s European summit.
– Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 advanced and developing economies plan to press European officials at a meeting Saturday and Sunday to bolster a financial firewall designed to guard against further euro-zone turmoil. Many insist on a larger European rescue fund as a condition for bolstering resources at the International Monetary Fund to fight the debt crisis.
– But ahead of the G-20 meeting, Germany’s central-bank chief appeared to echo Berlin’s position that an expansion of the rescue fund isn’t appropriate now.
– Other German officials believe additional steps—including the completion of Greece’s private-sector bond swap, launched Friday—must come before the rescue fund is beefed up.
– Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, at a conference here hosted by the Institute of International Finance, a global banking trade association, welcomed the second bailout program for Greece and said it is now "crucial" to create "appropriate ring-fencing" to prevent a possible escalation of the crisis. But he warned that money alone won’t solve the problem.
– Mr. Weidmann attacked what he called a "popular misconception" that his nation is selfishly refusing to come to the aid of stricken countries. Germany has done a "great deal" to tackle the debt crisis as "the bulk of the containment measures rely heavily on Germany’s financial support," he said.
– Euro-zone officials are weighing whether to expand their bailout fund by combining a permanent €500 billion ($669 billion) rescue fund, set to launch this summer, with money that is left in a temporary facility. Combined, that could provide a fund of about €750 billion to protect vulnerable economies such as Italy and Spain from problems in Greece. European leaders plan to discuss the issue at a summit Thursday and Friday.
– Germany hasn’t ruled out an increase in the euro-zone’s rescue fund. But top German government officials responsible for decisions about the rescue fund, including Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, have indicated that other steps must come first.
– For now, the German government is focused on Greece’s second bailout, with a tough vote due Monday in the Bundestag. Greece also must take other steps to receive new aid, including the completion of the private-sector bond swap, which will take weeks.
– Additional money can only buy time to tackle the roots of the crisis, which would involve trimming budget deficits and implementing structural reforms, Mr. Weidmann said.
"It should be clear that no further disbursements will be warranted if Greece fails to keep its side of the bargain," he said.
Many investors, based on signals from euro-zone governments, have been expecting a decision on expanding Europe’s firewall next week.
– Bank of Mexico Gov. Agustín Carstens said Friday that European authorities should act "decisively and soon" to enlarge their own bailout fund.
Delaying a decision would leave other nations outside the euro zone in a holding pattern for their own moves to support Europe. The IMF last month launched an effort to raise $500 billion, more than doubling its available lending capacity, to protect vulnerable nations from more turmoil. Nations that are willing to provide new money to the IMF, including China and Japan, say Europe must do more first to build up its own firewall.
The impasse means further talks about bolstering IMF resources could wait until a G-20 gathering of finance ministers in April in Washington, or a G-20 summit in June.
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Regierungserklärung zu Griechenland-Hilfen Merkel: Europa gewinnt, wenn der Euro gewinnt
– 27.02.2012 · Bundeskanzlerin Merkel hat in einer Regierungserklärung vor dem Bundestag für das zweite Hilfspaket für Griechenland geworben, über das die Abgeordneten am Abend abstimmen. Zugleich warnte sie vor Risiken der Finanzhilfen: „Eine 100-prozentige Erfolgsgarantie kann niemand geben“, sagte sie.
– Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) hat in der Euro-Schuldenkrise eindringlich für den Stabilitätskurs der Bundesregierung geworben. „Europa scheitert, wenn der Euro scheitert. Europa gewinnt, wenn der Euro gewinnt“, sagte Merkel am Montag in einer Regierungserklärung vor dem Bundestag in Berlin. Zugleich wies sie vor der Bundestagsabstimmung über das zweite Griechenland-Paket auf die Risiken der Hilfen hin. „Eine 100-prozentige Erfolgsgarantie kann niemand geben“, sagte die Kanzlerin. Der vor den Griechen liegende Weg sei lang und wahrlich nicht ohne Risiko.
– Wichtig seien nun unumkehrbare Schritte für eine Stabilitätsunion zugunsten des Euro. Zugleich forderte sie Griechenland abermals zu umfassenden Strukturreformen auf. Griechenland müsse die in Athen gefassten Beschlüsse umsetzen, damit den Griechen eine Perspektive für eine wirklich bessere Zukunft eröffnet werde.
„Griechische Steuerverwaltung muss verbessert werden“
– Merkel kündigte auch an, dass Deutschland den dauerhaften Euro-Rettungsschirm ESM schneller als bisher geplant mit Kapital ausstatten werde. Deutschland sei bereit, seinen Anteil von 22 Milliarden Euro binnen zwei Jahren einzuzahlen und nicht wie zunächst vorgesehen innerhalb von fünf Jahren. Deutschland werde noch in diesem Jahr 11 Milliarden Euro einzahlen. Die andere Hälfte von 11 Milliarden Euro solle 2013 folgen. Der Fonds soll nach gegenwärtigen Planungen insgesamt 500 Milliarden Euro umfassen. Auf Forderungen der Europartner und von Ländern wie den Vereinigten Staaten oder China, den ESM aufzustocken, ging Merkel nicht ein. Die Bundesregierung lehnt dies bislang vehement ab.
– Die Kanzlerin betonte, beim neuen Griechenland-Paket gehe es nicht nur ums Sparen, sondern um mehr Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, um auf einen nachhaltigen Wachstumspfad zu kommen. „Es führt kein Weg daran vorbei, Fehlentwicklungen jetzt zu korrigieren.“ Dazu gehöre unter anderem, die griechische Steuerverwaltung deutlich zu verbessern, sagte Merkel.
Abstimmung über 130 Milliarden Euro
– Die Parlamentarier wollten nach 17.00 Uhr mit der Abstimmung über das neue Hilfsprogramm für Griechenland beginnen. Das zweite Hilfsprogramm für Griechenland läuft unter dem Dach des Euro-Rettungsschirms EFSF und ist terminiert bis 2014.
o Von den insgesamt 130 Milliarden Euro sollen bis zu 30 Milliarden Euro als Garantien für Privatinvestoren dienen, um deren künftige Investitionen in griechische Staatsanleihen abzusichern.
o Im Gegenzug sollen Banken und andere Investoren auf 100 Milliarden Euro ihrer Forderungen an Griechenland verzichten.
o Zusätzlich zu den 130 Milliarden Euro werden nicht genutzte 24,4 Milliarden Euro aus dem ersten Hilfspaket künftig vom EFSF ausgezahlt.
o Insgesamt verfügt der EFSF damit über 154,4 Milliarden Euro für Griechenland.
– Die Zustimmung des Parlaments gilt als sicher, weil SPD und Grüne grundsätzlich für die Hilfen sind. Offen war, ob Schwarz-Gelb die symbolisch wichtige eigene Kanzlermehrheit von mindestens 311 Stimmen erreichen kann.
Griechenlands Schulden an private und institutionelle Gläubiger werden teilweise erlassen
– Für Unmut innerhalb der schwarz-gelben Koalition hatte Bundesinnenminister Hans-Peter Friedrich am Wochenende mit der Äußerung gesorgt, Griechenland solle am besten aus der Eurozone austreten. Führende Politiker von CDU und FDP wiesen die Äußerungen des CSU-Politikers zurück.
– Am Montag stellte Friedrich dann klar, dass er das zweite Griechenland-Paket unterstütze. „Wir gehen als Bundesregierung davon aus, dass es gelingen kann, Griechenland im Euroraum zu sanieren und wettbewerbsfähig zu machen“, sagte Friedrich vor der Bundestagsabstimmung über das zweite Rettungspaket für Griechenland. „Ich zweifele überhaupt nicht am Rettungskurs der Kanzlerin.“ Das Paket sei „vorläufig die beste Alternative, sonst würde ich nicht mitstimmen“.
„Ich wollte eine Botschaft an die Griechen senden“
– Der Minister erläuterte am Montag, er habe mit seinen Äußerungen vom Wochenende eine „Botschaft an die Griechen“ senden wollen, dass nicht nur die Euro-Partner, sondern auch die Griechen ihre Verpflichtungen einhalten müssten. Die Griechen müssten wissen: Es gebe auch andere Lösungen „als immer nur zu zahlen“, sagte Friedrich. Zu der Kritik vor allem am Zeitpunkt seiner Äußerungen kurz vor der wichtigen Abstimmung im Bundestag sagte Friedrich: „Es ist immer klug, sich zu wichtigen Dingen wahrheitsgemäß zu äußern.“
– Friedrichs Äußerungen im „Spiegel“ weckten offenbar Befürchtungen, dass sich weitere Kritiker aus den Reihen der Koalition aus der Deckung wagen und gegen das zweite Rettungspaket stimmen könnten.
– Denn auch in der Koalition gibt es wachsende Zweifel, ob die Rettung Griechenlands gelingen kann. Große Unsicherheit herrscht darüber, welche Regierung in Athen nach Neuwahlen das Sagen hat. Finanzminister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) selbst hatte ein drittes Rettungspaket nach 2014 nicht mehr ausgeschlossen.
– Bei der Abstimmung am späteren Nachmittag wird mit etlichen Abweichlern von Union[e] und FDP gerechnet. Die Kanzlermehrheit beträgt 19 Stimmen. Sowohl bei CDU/CSU als auch der FDP fehlen je drei kranke Abgeordnete. Regierungssprecher Steffen Seibert betonte, die Kanzlermehrheit sei nicht gefragt, er erwarte aber eine eigene Mehrheit von Union[e] und FDP.
– Am Rande der Fraktionssitzungen war von etwa 12 Abweichlern die Rede. FDP-Fraktionschef Rainer Brüderle erwartet bis zu 5 Gegner bei den Liberalen. Es werde sich in der Größenordnung früherer Abstimmungen bewegen. Brüderle sagte: „Die Regierung ist handlungsfähig.“
– CSU-Generalsekretär Alexander Dobrindt kritisierte dagegen die Rettungspolitik der Bundesregierung. Der „Bild“-Zeitung sagte er: „Griechenland ist und bleibt ein Pleitekandidat. Eine Insolvenz Griechenlands ist nicht auszuschließen. Ein Strategiewechsel bei der Griechenland-Rettung inklusive Austritt Griechenlands aus dem Euro-Raum darf kein Tabu mehr sein.“ CSU-Parteichef Horst Seehofer sagte: „Das ist aber heute nicht relevant, weil das derzeit nicht ansteht.“ Ein Austritt sei „ein Schritt der griechischen Regierung und nicht eine Entscheidung hier in Deutschland“.
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February 21, 2012
Growing Air of Concern in Greece Over New Bailout
By RACHEL DONADIO
ATHENS — Even as the European Union[e] signed off Tuesday on a sweeping new arrangement to help avert a Greek default and stabilize the euro, many people here on the streets saw no end to their country’s woes.
“They don’t want to kill us but keep us down on our knees so we can keep paying them indefinitely,” said Eva Kyriadou, 55, as she stood in a square in downtown Athens where the smell of tear gas and the smashed facades from last week’s violent riots still lingered.
– Indeed, the deal was reached amid a growing air of stalemate and concern. Greece’s foreign lenders expressed doubts that the new austerity measures the Greek Parliament passed last week — including a 22 percent cut to the private-sector benchmark minimum wage — would actually be carried out, at least before early national elections as soon as April.
– Others are concerned that in the fine print of the 400-plus-page document — which Parliament members had a weekend to read and sign — Greece relinquished fundamental parts of its sovereignty to its foreign lenders, the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
– “This is the first time ever that a European and probably an O.E.C.D. state abdicates its rights of immunity over all its assets to its lenders,” said Louka Katseli, an independent member of Parliament who previously represented the Socialist Party, using the abbreviation for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. She was one of several independents who joined 43 lawmakers from the two largest parties in voting against the loan agreement.
– Ms. Katseli, an economist who was labor minister in the government of George Papandreou until she left in a cabinet reshuffle last June, was also upset that Greece’s lenders will have the right to seize the gold reserves in the Bank of Greece under the terms of the new deal, and that future bonds issued will be governed by English law and in Luxembourg courts, conditions more favorable to creditors.
– While their country’s fate is being decided in abstract, high-level negotiations in Brussels, Berlin and Paris as much as in Athens, many Greeks said they had begun to feel that the debt writedown and new loan is aimed at saving the banks more than the country and its citizens.
– On Tuesday, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos defended the new debt agreement, calling it “the most significant deal in Greece’s postwar history” and asserting that it had “averted a nightmare scenario.”
– Under the terms of the deal, Greece’s private lenders will agree to write down 100 billion euros of Greek public debt and take a loss of more than 70 percent in exchange for longer-term bonds. “I wonder what would be happening today in Greece, in the euro zone and in the global economy if a deal had not been reached, what prospects there would be for banks, for savings, for the wages of Greeks,” Mr. Venizelos said.
– But many Greeks were not buying it. “In my simple mind, it seems crazy,” said Dionysius Tsoukalas, 35, as he served customers at a downtown Athens coffee bar. “They took off 100 billion, but now we took a new loan for 130 billion. Why would we do that? It’s crazy.”
– Mr. Tsoukalas said he had a master’s degree in industrial product design but worked in the coffee bar five days a week to make ends meet. He said he earned around 700 euros a month, or about $927, and could barely get by, with his mortgage and new tax increases.
He was upset that Greek politicians had not followed through on their plans to make structural changes. “In two years they haven’t done anything,” he said. “They didn’t open the closed professions, they didn’t touch the cartels,” he added, referring to the powerful groups that control the import of consumer goods in Greece’s import-driven economy.
– Privately, Greek and European officials said they did not believe that Greece’s increasingly weak political class would have the will or the time to carry out the new austerity measures, which they say require complex legal expertise and cooperation among ministries in a state that lags in administrative capacity.
Parliament already approved the measures in principle and is expected to pass specific implementation bills before the end of the month, even amid growing concern among Parliament members that the measures will push the country further into recession. At the same time, politicians are fighting for what little political capital they have left after two years of austerity has drained them of popular support.
– Growing political instability is another wild card affecting Greece’s public finances. Opinion polls say that the center-right New Democracy party is leading in the polls, but that combined, left-wing parties that are opposed to the loan agreement also have significant support.
On Tuesday, Antonis Samaras, leader of New Democracy, who has been pushing for elections and is the front-runner to become the next prime minister, said the new agreement “eliminates the risk of bankruptcy for the country, secures its prospects within Europe, creates the possibility for debt to become sustainable, and opens the road for elections.”
Niki Kitsantonis and Dimitris Bounias contributed reporting.