Tunisia: dall’assassinio politico alla crisi di regime+Vari

 

+ Nyt 130206, La Tunisia si muove per contenere le conseguenze dopo l’assassinio di un rappresentante dell’opposizione, MONICA MARKS and KAREEM FAHIM

+ Le Monde, 13.02.07, In Tunisia , “c’è un ripiegamento su un discorso identitario e populista”

+ Al-Jazeera,            130207, Il partito tunisino Ennahda respinge lo scioglimento del gabinetto

+ The Guardian,120707, La Tunisia deve risolvere i problemi economici per evitare che le proteste si diffondano

 

–       In Tunisia le cause sociali ed economiche che hanno fatto esplodere a fine 2010-inizio 2011 la prima “rivoluzione araba” non sono risolte, e anzi aggravate dalla stagnazione europea;

 

–       il presidente tunisino, Moncef Marzouky ha avvertito che se non si risolvono i problemi prioritari, quelli economici, ci sarà “una rivoluzione nella rivoluzione”;

o   l’alta disoccupazione soprattutto giovanile, il 30% tra i numerosi giovani laureati, era valutata (da Brookings, nel gennaio 2011) come primo fattore della crisi;

[1]

 

o   30 000-40 000 i nuovi laureati l’anno in Tunisia; calcolando le varie forme di sotto-occupazione, la percentuale sale a circa il 50%.

 

o   il 56% dei giovani tunisini che entrano nel mercato del lavoro sono laureati;la Tunizia spende il 7,2% del PIL per l’educazione, più di qualsiasi paese europeo e nordamericano (tranne la Danimarca, al 7,9%, e l’Irlanda, al 7,5%).

o   forti gli squilibri regionali, permanere della corruzione.

 

o   Il governo ha introdotto alcune misure di ripiego, modesti sussidi per circa 200 000 laureati, decine di migliaia di posti di lavoro nel PI, sussidi per alcuni generi alimentari base, latte, uova, farina, zucchero e combustibile.

o   Ampio è il settore del lavoro “informale”.

 

o   (Dati CNBC, 24.01.2011) Prima della crisi economica l’economia tunisina cresceva a circa il 5%; +3,04% nel 2010;

 

o   Pil pro-capite $9 500, meglio di Perù, Tailandia e Giamaica.

 

o   Poco più della metà del PIL è prodotto dai servizi; esporta circa $16MD di beni e servizi, importa circa $20MD soprattutto verso e da Francia e Italia.

 

–       Da sei mesi si assiste ad una radicalizzazione dello contro politico

o   da una parte raggruppamenti anti-islamisti (il conservatore partito Nida Tounes e la sinistra); dall’altra gli islamisti di Ennhada che hanno dato maggior spazio a conservatori interni, i salafiti, e a componenti conservatrici sociali. Gli estremisti di destra tunisini non sono solo i salafiti ma anche militanti più vicini ad al-Qaeda.

o   e a numerose proteste per le difficoltà economiche,[2] con vari episodi di repressione violenta del governo contro rappresentanti dell’opposizione, militanti laici, sindacalisti, giornalisti;

o   a metà ottobre 2012 scontri con una vittima, in occasione di una manifestazione organizzata dalla Lega di Protezione della Rivoluzione (LPR), nebulosa di associazioni salafite, che difende militarmente il governo, e della quale l’opposizione chiede lo scioglimento;

o   1° dicembre 2012, Siliana, S-O di Tunisi, violenti scontri con la polizia (300 feriti) per difficoltà economiche; poi marcia di 10 000 manifestanti per posti di lavoro, dimissioni governatore;

o   a metà dicembre militanti del sindacato UGTT sono stati attaccati da membri di LPR.

o   la scorsa settimana gli islamisti hanno attaccato il congresso del Movimento dei patrioti democratici (MPD), estrema sinistra, 11 i feriti;

–       ora, 5 febbraio 2013, è stato assassinato in Tunisia Chokri Belaïd, segretario del MPD;

–       immediata manifestazione di migliaia di membri dell’opposizione, militanti della società civile e semplici cittadini, slogan: «vivremo a pane e acqua ma senza Ennahda. Il popolo vuole la caduta del regime. Il popolo vuole un’altra rivoluzione»; sono seguiti scontri tra forze di sicurezza e migliaia di manifestanti.

 

–       A Gafsa, città del bacino minerario, durante una manifestazione organizzata dal Fronte Popolare (alleanza di partiti di sinistra ed estrema sinistra) centinaia di lavoratori si sono scontrati con la polizia.

–       Il Fronte Popolare (nuovo raggruppamento di partiti di estrema sinistra) e i tre rappresentanti dell’opposizione laica, Nida Tounes, il Partito Repubblicano e al-Massar, e il sindacato UGTT,

[3] hanno chiamato allo sciopero generale per venerdì, il primo dal 1978, e hanno sospeso la partecipazione all’assemblea costituente.

.

 

–       Secondo stime della polizia circa 40 000 persone hanno partecipato (8.02.2013) al funerale di Belaïd.

–       Hamadi Jabali, primo ministro islamista, del campo più moderato di Ennahda, ha proposto lo scioglimento del governo, per formarne uno di unità nazionale, un “governo tecnico”, la proposta di scioglimento è stata respinta dal suo partito, capeggiato da Ghannouchi, che parla invece di re-impasto. La proposta di un governo tecnocratico, finalizzata a ridare credibilità al governo, era in discussione dalla caduta di Ben Ali.

–       Scontri interni alla coalizione al governo, con Ennahda (42 seggi; nell’assemblea costituente controlla 89 seggi su 217) che rifiuta di cedere alcuni ministeri agli altri due partiti di centro-sinistra, il Congresso per la Repubblica (Marzouki) e Ettakatol; il capo di Ennahda è Rached Gannouchi.

–       Guerra di clan all’interno di Ennahda, tra il falco Gannouchi, e la colomba Jabali, primo ministro, apprezzato dall’opposizione.

–       Ennahda era salito al potere, promettendo un governo che unisca principi islamisti e pluralismo.

–       Il Think Tank, Brookings Doha Center:

l’assassinio è un colpo alle aspirazioni dei partiti islamisti che hanno preso le redini delle transizioni democratiche nella regione, in particolare in Egitto e Tunisia. In Egitto gli islamisti non sono riusciti a creare consenso e fiducia, e si basano su un mero principio di maggioranza. In Tunisia hanno creato una coalizione con i liberali ma non hanno preso una posizione contro gli islamisti, in competizione per il consenso della loro destra.

De notre correspondante L’exécution, hier, d’une figure de la gauche a choqué le pays. Et contraint le Premier ministre islamiste à annoncer la formation d’un gouvernement «sans appartenance politique».

–          Alors qu’il sortait de son immeuble, hier matin, dans le quartier de Menzah 6, à Tunis, Chokri Belaïd, secrétaire du Mouvement des patriotes démocrates (extrême gauche), a été tué à bout portant de trois balles, dont une dans la tête et une dans le cou. Son assassin a pris la fuite avec un complice à moto. C’est le Premier ministre en personne, Hamadi Jebali, qui a raconté l’assassinat de cette figure de l’opposition radicale qui, transportée dans une clinique, a succombé à ses blessures.

–          La nouvelle de sa mort a provoqué un immense choc dans tout le pays. Dans la soirée, le Premier ministre a même annoncé la formation d’un «gouvernement de compétences nationales sans appartenance politique», autrement dit un cabinet de technocrates «qui aura un mandat limité à la gestion des affaires du pays jusqu’à la tenue d’élections dans les plus brefs délais».

–          Immédiatement après que l’agression eut été rendue publique, des centaines de personnes, responsables de l’opposition, militants de la société civile et simples citoyens, ont afflué devant la clinique, avant d’escorter l’ambulance transportant la dépouille vers l’avenue Bourguiba, où des milliers de Tunisiens s’étaient aussi rassemblés. Devant le ministère de l’Intérieur, le cortège a appelé à la «chute du régime», les manifestants scandant : «Nous vivrons avec du pain et de l’eau, mais sans Ennahda. Le peuple veut une révolution de nouveau.» «Tout le monde refuse la violence», ajoutait un avocat. La foule, pourtant contenue, a été brutalement dispersée par la police à coups de gaz lacrymogènes. Des affrontements se sont ensuivis tout l’après-midi dans les rues adjacentes, entre les forces de sécurité tunisiennes et plusieurs milliers de protestataires, faisant au moins un mort du côté de la police.

–          «Une impunité totale». L’identité du meurtrier n’est pas connue et l’assassinat n’a pas été revendiqué, mais beaucoup tiennent le gouvernement, et plus particulièrement le parti islamiste Ennahda, pour responsable, sinon coupable. «On le pressentait, commentait dans le cortège la militante féministe Radia Belhaj Zekri. Depuis des mois, il y a des discours au vitriol, dans une impunité totale.» «La responsabilité de cet assassinat revient à ceux qui ont ignoré la réalité de la violence politique pendant des mois», dénonçait également l’élu d’opposition Iyed Dahmani.

–          Depuis plusieurs mois, les violences se multiplient. Elus et représentants de l’opposition sont de plus en plus souvent pris pour cible et leurs meetings attaqués. Militants laïques, syndicalistes et journalistes sont régulièrement agressés et les manifestations artistiques épisodiquement troublées.

–          Mi-octobre, la violence politique a déjà fait un mort, à Tataouine (sud), lors d’une manifestation organisée par les Ligues de protection de la révolution, une nébuleuse associative qui s’est illustrée à de nombreuses reprises par sa défense musclée du gouvernement. Le défilé a dégénéré en bagarre générale, dans laquelle le responsable régional du parti Nida Tounes, bête noire des islamistes, a trouvé la mort. Ce week-end encore, deux réunions du Parti républicain ont été perturbées.

–          Au Kef (nord-ouest), le congrès de la formation de Chokri Belaïd a été la cible d’une attaque d’islamistes, faisant 11 blessés.

–          «Nous sommes devant une aile d’Ennahda qui refuse les élections et tient à garder le pouvoir en recourant à la violence», dénonçait Belaïd dans un article paru hier dans le quotidien tunisien le Temps.

–          L’opposition appelle depuis des mois à la dissolution des Ligues de protection de la révolution et accuse Ennahda de laxisme face aux salafistes. Mais «à chaque fois que nous essayons de parler de la violence, ils nous répondent que [les salafistes] ce sont nos fils, nos enfants», accuse Iyed Dahmani, en référence à des propos du chef d’Ennahda, Rached Ghannouchi.

–          Après l’attaque, en décembre, de militants de la centrale syndicale UGTT (lire ci-contre) par des membres des ligues, le président d’Ennahda a expliqué que ces derniers étaient la «conscience de la révolution».

–          Guerre de clans. Ces violences, qui ont atteint hier un point culminant avec l’assassinat de Belaïd, augmentent à mesure que la Tunisie s’enfonce dans l’impasse politique.

–          Ennahda a longtemps refusé tout dialogue national avec Nida Tounes, la principale force de l’opposition laïque, avant de revoir quelque peu sa position dernièrement. Le remaniement du gouvernement annoncé hier soir était promis depuis juillet.

–          Mais la «troïka» au pouvoir – coalition qui associe Ennahda à deux formations de centre gauche – ne parvenait pas à s’entendre, Ennahda refusant de céder des ministères régaliens.

–          Le parti islamiste est traversé par une guerre de clans, qui oppose celui de Rached Ghannouchi, tenant d’une ligne dure, à celui du Premier ministre Jebali, personnalité appréciée par l’opposition. Fin janvier, ce dernier a paru s’affranchir en dressant un constat d’échec et posant un ultimatum aux trois partis de la coalition au pouvoir. En vain.

–          Confronté à une impopularité croissante, Ennahda s’est dépêché de réagir à l’assassinat de Belaïd, dénonçant un «crime odieux visant à déstabiliser le pays» et appelant à l’ouverture d’une enquête. Son chef, Rached Ghannouchi, a rejeté toute implication de son parti, imputant cet acte à des personnes qui «veulent un bain de sang». Même son de cloche du côté du président, Moncef Marzouki, qui a écourté hier son déplacement à Strasbourg.

–          De son côté, l’opposition appelle au calme.

Le Front populaire (nouveau rassemblement des partis d’extrême gauche) et les trois principales formations de l’opposition laïque, Nida Tounes, le Parti républicain et al-Massar, appellent à une grève générale vendredi et suspendent leur participation à l’Assemblée constituante. La transition démocratique tunisienne a pris hier un sérieux coup et son avenir, soulignait l’opposant Iyed Dahmani, «est incertain».

Tunisia Moves to Contain Fallout After Opposition Figure Is Assassinated

–          TUNIS — Tunisian officials moved quickly Wednesday to contain the fallout after a leading opposition figure was assassinated outside his home. They announced that they would restructure the Islamist-led government and form a national unity cabinet as thousands took to the streets in protests that security forces beat back with tear gas.

–          The killing of the politician, Chokri Belaid, one of Tunisia’s best-known human rights defenders and a fierce critic of the ruling Islamist party, placed dangerous new strains on a society struggling to reconcile its identity as a long-vaunted bastion of Arab secularism with its new role as a proving ground for one of the region’s ascendant Islamist parties.

–          The explosion of popular anger, which led to the death of a police officer in the capital, posed a severe challenge to the governing party, Ennahda, which came to power promising a model government that blended Islamist principles with tolerant pluralism.

Mr. Belaid was shot and killed outside his home in an upscale Tunis neighborhood as he was getting into his car on Wednesday morning. The interior minister, citing witnesses, said that two unidentified gunmen had fired on Mr. Belaid, striking him with four bullets.

–          The killing, which analysts said was the first confirmed political assassination here since the overthrow of the autocratic leader, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, was a dark turn for the country that was the birthplace of the Arab uprisings of two years ago. It resonated in countries like Egypt and Libya that are struggling to contain political violence while looking to Tunisia’s turbulent but hopeful transition as a reassuring example.

“Confronting violence, radicalism and the forces of darkness is the main priority for societies if they want freedom and democracy,” Amr Hamzawy, a member of Egypt’s main secular opposition coalition, wrote on Twitter on Wednesday. “Assassinating Chokri Belaid is warning bell in Tunisia, and in Egypt too.”

The response by Tunisian officials was being closely watched. President Moncef Marzouki cut short an overseas trip to deal with the crisis. The prime minister, Hamadi Jebali, called the killing a “heinous crime against the Tunisian people, against the principles of the revolution and the values of tolerance and acceptance of the other.”

–          Bowing to the outrage, he said cabinet ministers would be replaced with technocrats not tied to any party until elections can be held.

–          The announcement, which had been expected for months, held out the promise that Tunisia might continue to avoid the political chaos that has plagued its neighbors. Since the uprising, the country has held successful elections, leading to a coalition government merging Ennahda and two center-left parties. An assembly writing the country’s constitution has circumscribed the role of Islamic law, allowing Tunisia to avoid the arguments over basic legal matters that have led to protracted unrest in Egypt.

–          The struggle over identity here has taken a different form, as hard-line Islamists have pressured Ennhada to take a more conservative path. Secular groups have faulted Ennahda for failing to confront the hard-liners, or for secretly supporting them. The restructuring does not completely loosen Ennahda’s hold on political power.

–          The killing remained a mystery on Wednesday. The authorities did not announce any arrests, saying only that witnesses said the gunmen had appeared to be no more than 30 years old. Among Mr. Belaid’s colleagues and relatives, suspicions immediately fell on the hard-line Islamists known as Salafists, some of whom have marred the transition with acts of violence, including attacks on liquor stores and Sufi mausoleums.

–          Mr. Belaid, a leading member of Tunisia’s leftist opposition alliance, criticized the governing party for turning a blind eye to criminal acts by the Salafists, and had received a string of death threats for his political stands, his family said.

–          In a chilling prelude to his death, in a television interview on Tuesday, Mr. Belaid accused Ennahda of giving “an official green light” to political violence. Separately, he accused “Ennahda mercenaries and Salafists” of attacking a meeting of his supporters on Saturday.

His wife, Besma Khalfaoui, blamed Ennahda and told Tunisia’s state news agency that the authorities had ignored her husband’s pleas for protection during four months of death threats.

–          In a stunned Tunisia, as news of the killing spread, thousands poured into the streets in the capital and other cities. A crowd gathered in front of the interior ministry, a massive building that is still a hated symbol of Mr. Ben Ali and his security services, to express anger at the new government. “Resignation, resignation, the cabinet of treason,” people shouted.

–          Riot police officers fired tear gas into the crowds and plainclothes security officers beat protesters, witnesses said, in scenes that recalled the uprising two years ago. In other cities, protesters attacked Ennahda’s offices.

The party vigorously denied any role in the killing, but the damage to its reputation seemed difficult to repair.

–          Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center, said the assassination was a blow to the aspirations of Islamist parties taking the reins in democratic transitions in the region, most notably in Egypt and Tunisia. In Egypt, he said, the Islamists have failed to build consensus and trust, relying instead on a narrow majoritarianism.

–          In Tunisia, he said, they built a coalition with liberals but failed to take a stand against more hard-line Islamists competing for support on their right.

“Facing down extremists — Islamists find that very difficult,” Mr. Shaikh said.

–          In Tunisia, he said, the extremists included not only Salafis but more militant actors closer to Al Qaeda. “They have not been very quiet in terms of their intentions, and yet Ennahda has not taken them on,” he said.

In Tunisia, some hoped that the killing would serve as a warning not just about the dangers of political violence, but also about the authorities’ refusal to confront it. Amna Guellali, a Human Rights Watch researcher based in Tunis, said the group had documented numerous attacks on activists, journalists and political figures by various groups, including the Salafis.

“The victims filed complaints to local tribunals, but never heard anything back,” she said. “There is a trend of impunity. This impunity can lead to emboldening” attackers.

“Yesterday, Chokri called for a national dialogue to confront political violence,” she said. “This just adds to the tragedy.”

Monica Marks reported from Tunis, and Kareem Fahim from Cairo. Reporting was contributed by Gerry Mullany from Hong Kong, Mayy El Sheikh from Cairo, David D. Kirkpatrick from Antakya, Turkey, and Brian Knowlton from Washington.

Tunisia’s Ennahda rejects dissolving cabinet

Ruling party rejects PM Jebali’s move to dissolve government in bid to restore calm after killing of opposition leader.

–          Tunisia’s ruling Islamic Ennahda party has rejected Prime Minister Hamdi Jebali’s proposal to dissolve the government and install a cabinet of technocrats in a bid to restore calm after the killing of an opposition leader.

–          "The prime minister did not ask the opinion of his party," said Abdelhamid Jelassi, Ennahda’s vice-president on Thursday.

–          "We in Ennahda believe Tunisia needs a political government now. We will continue discussions with others parties about forming a coalition government."

–          Jebali announced he was dissolving the government on Wednesday after leading secular opposition politician Shokri Belaid was gunned down outside his home in Tunis, sending protesters onto the streets across the country.

–          Al Jazeera’s Ahmed Janabi in Tunis reported violent clashes between Belaid’s supporters and police along the main Habib Borguiba Avenue, with the police using tear gas and batons to disperse the protesters and making numerous arrests.

– Earlier, crowds of mourners, chanting "the people want the fall of the regime", crowded around an ambulance carrying Belaid’s body.

–          As the protests intensified, four Tunisian opposition groups, including the Popular Front, of which the Democratic Patriots is a component, announced they were pulling out of the national assembly.

Belaid had been critical of Tunisia’s leadership, especially the Ennahda party that dominates the government.

He had accused authorities of not doing enough to stop violence by ultraconservatives who have targeted mausoleums, art exhibits and other things seen as out of keeping with their strict interpretation of Islam.

Samir Dilou, a government spokesperson, called Belaid’s killing an "odious crime".

Anti-government protesters clashed with police, who retaliated with tear gas [Ahmed Janabi/Al Jazeera]

Moncef Marzouki, the Tunisian president, said he would fight those who opposed the political transition in his country after the death of Belaid.

Marzouki, who cut short a visit to France on Wednesday, told legislators at the European Parliament in Strasbourg to applause: "We will continue to fight the enemies of the revolution."

–          Marzouki also cancelled a visit to Egypt scheduled for Thursday after the killing, which brought thousands of protesters onto the streets outside the Interior Ministry.

Chanting for the fall of the Ennahda-led government, demonstrators shouted "Shame, shame Shokri died", "Where is the government?", and "The government should fall".

–          Omar bin Ali, a member of the Tunisian Trade Unions, was present at the demonstration site and said “the Islamists were responsible for Belaid’s death".

–          "This is what they have been calling for in mosques," bin Ali told Al Jazeera.

–          Ruling out the possibility of external factors, he said "Tunisia is a friend of all nations. It is hard to think of anyone from abroad to do this to us," adding that "the people want the whole government out as they proved to be useless".

–          The assassination comes as Tunisia is struggling to maintain stability and revive its economy after its longtime dictator was overthrown in an uprising two years ago.

Mohammed Jmour, another opposition leader, criticised the government in a press conference on Wednesday for failing to protect Belaid against stated threats.

“Threats of plunging into a whirlpool of violence that can be caused by a number of bodies, the state, the revolution guarding committees and armed groups," Jmour said.

"Only yesterday, a number of questions were raised … and Shokri repeatedly emphasised this particular issue. He personally had felt threats to his safety."

The Tunisian revolution set off revolts across the Arab world and unleashed new social and religious tensions.

–          Ennahda won 42 percent of seats in the first post-Arab uprising elections in October 2011 and formed a government in coalition with two secular parties, Marzouki’s Congress for the Republic and Ettakatol.

–          However, the government has faced many protests over economic hardship.

Tunisia reaches deal with Siliana protesters over economic hardship

At least 300 people were wounded this week after clashes ignited between protesters and police in the northwest town of Siliana. (AFP)

–          Tunisia’s government and main trade union[e] reached a deal on Saturday aimed at satisfying demands by demonstrators in the impoverished governorate of Siliana angry over poor living conditions.

–          One of the demands was for the resignation of regional Governor Ahmed Ezzine Mahjoubi. The deal envisages sidelining, but not removing him, and putting his deputy in charge.

–          “The deputy of the governorate is charged with managing the governorate while awaiting the appropriate decisions by the authorities,” Mohamed Ben Salem, the minister of agriculture and government representative in the negotiations, told reporters in the capital.

“The two parties have agreed to work together to calm the situation,” he said, adding that steps would be taken to ensure the economic development of the region, another of the protesters main grievances.

“It’s a positive step, pending concrete decisions,” said Belgacem Ayari, the deputy general of the UGTT union, which is organizing the protests.

But Ayari insisted on the need to order the withdrawal of police reinforcements in Siliana, which he blamed for the violence that has rocked the town since Tuesday.

–          The town, 120 kilometers (70 miles) southwest of Tunis, has been the epicenter of protests and clashes between the police and protesters this week, nearly two years after the revolution.

–          Tunisian security forces fired tear gas and live rounds into the air on Saturday to try to disperse thousands of protesters in a town that has seen days of clashes over economic hardship.

–          National guard forces belonging to the Interior Ministry fired tear gas and rounds from inside armoured personnel carriers in the town of Siliana, southwest of Tunis.

–          "Get out, get out!", "With our blood and soul we sacrifice ourselves for you, Siliana" and "Siliana will be the graveyard of the Ennahda party" the protesters, who numbered about 3,000, chanted while throwing stones at security forces.

–          The Islamist Ennahda party that won Tunisia’s first post-Arab Spring election last year is struggling to revive the economy of the north African state due to lower trade with the crisis-hit euro zone.

–          Residents are also demanding financial aid and an end to police aggression, similar grievances behind the mass uprising that toppled former strongman Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011 and touched off the Arab Spring.

–          Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki asked the country’s prime minister on Friday to appoint a new cabinet in response to the violent protests over economic hardship.

–          At least 300 people were wounded this week after clashes ignited between protesters and police in the northwest town of Siliana, leaving about 17 protesters blinded by birdshot, medical sources told Reuters.

–          Up to 10,000 people marched Friday to demand more jobs, government investment and the resignation of the local governor, but the peaceful protest degenerated into clashes with police. Still, the confrontation was far less serious than a day earlier, when the army was brought in briefly to quell protests.

–          U.N. human rights officials said the security forces used excessive force to quell the protests, in some of their harshest criticism of Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali’s government since it took office in October last year.

For many Tunisians, the clashes recalled harsh policing under Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, the veteran autocrat brought down in the first Arab Spring uprising in January 2011.

"The government must be changed to have a competent technocrat cabinet and not a party political one," Marzouki, a secularist, said in an address carried on state television. "If the clashes continue and the government’s response is not adequate, there will be chaos and a dead-end."

Jebali, who hails from Tunisia’s biggest Islamist movement Ennahda, has rejected calls for his resignation and accused leftists of sowing disorder.

Marzouki’s demand for a reshuffle raises the pressure on Jebali from his political opponents but he is not obliged under the constitution to obey the call.

En Tunisie, "il y a eu un repli sur un discours identitaire et populiste"

Le Monde.fr | 07.02.2013 à 21h03 • Mis à jour le 07.02.2013 à 21h47

–          Le premier ministre tunisien, Hamadi Jebali, a annoncé mercredi 6 février qu’il formera un "gouvernement de compétences nationales sans appartenance politique" après l’assassinat de l’opposant Chokri Belaïd, qui a déclenché une vague de violences en Tunisie. Ce gouvernement "aura un mandat limité à la gestion des affaires du pays jusqu’à la tenue d’élections dans les plus brefs délais", a-t-il déclaré dans une adresse télévisée à la nation.

 

–          Le chef du groupe parlementaire Ennahda, dont est issu Hamadi Jebali, a opposé une fin de non-recevoir à la formation d’un gouvernement de technocrates apolitiques. "Nous avons refusé cette proposition (…). Le chef du gouvernement a pris cette décision sans consulter la coalition [gouvernementale] ni le mouvement Ennahda", a annoncé Sahbi Atig, alors que tout cabinet doit être approuvé par l’Assemblée nationale constituante (ANC), où Ennahda contrôle 89 des 217 sièges.

–          Vincent Geisser, politologue et spécialiste de la Tunisie, analyse la décision du premier ministre tunisien, ainsi que le refus opposé par le parti islamiste Ennahda.

Lire : Le principal syndicat tunisien appelle à la grève générale vendredi

Pourquoi le premier ministre tunisien, Hamadi Jebali, a-t-il pris la décision de former un gouvernement de technocrates ?

Le gouvernement de technocrates s’inscrit dans la culture de la transition démocratique en Tunisie. Dès la chute de Ben Ali, s’est posée la question de la formation d’un gouvernement et plusieurs voix se sont élevées pour dire que dans cette période d’incertitude et d’instabilité, le régime technocratique devait s’imposer. Les premiers ministres successifs, que ce soit Mohamed Ghannouchi ou Beji Cassi Essebsi, ont utilisé ce type de gouvernement pour se légitimer.

Hamadi Jebali, premier ministre tunisien.

–          Aujourd’hui, ce régime technocratique ressort car on se trouve dans une période de turbulences et de zones grises comme à la chute de Ben Ali. Face à ces incertitudes et à la bipolarisation de la société tunisienne, annoncer la formation d’un gouvernement de technocrates est une façon de rassurer le peuple et de recrédibiliser le gouvernement qui fait l’objet de critiques acerbes de la part des opposants, des membres de la coalition et même des islamistes déçus. Il est question de regagner une crédibilité politique dans un contexte politique, économique et social incertain.

La grande surprise est que cette idée ressort alors que le gouvernement en place dispose de la majorité politique et parlementaire. Cela montre l’ampleur de la crise politique.

Est-ce aussi un aveu d’échec du gouvernement actuel dans la gestion du pays ?

–          Il n’est pas sûr qu’on soit sur un registre d’évaluation du gouvernement et de son bilan en matière de politiques publiques car l’administration tunisienne, la machine gouvernementale n’a pas connu d’énormes bouleversements. Il y a eu quelques actes relevant de l’amateurisme politique et du népotisme dans des nominations, des erreurs d’ajustement politique avec une tendance à vouloir remplacer l’hégémonie de l’ancien parti unique par une hégémonie islamiste. Mais il est trop tôt pour tirer le bilan de l’action économique et sociale du gouvernement.

–          On est vraiment dans un échec politique d’un gouvernement islamiste qui voulait se donner une image d’honorabilité politique, en se montrant ouvert, et qui a échoué à créer une cohésion politique et à se donner une crédibilité politique. Des acteurs politiques n’ont cessé de lui renvoyer l’image d’un parti islamiste. Une image qu’ils n’ont pas su dépasser et qu’ils ont même alimentée.

Comment s’explique le vote de refus de la direction du parti Ennahda contre la décision prise par le premier ministre Hamadi Jebali, lui-même issu de cette formation ?

–          On est vraiment dans une phase de radicalisation depuis six mois avec

–          d’un côté, des éléments radicalement anti-islamistes comme le parti Nida Tounes ou la gauche, et de l’autre, des islamistes qui se sont ouverts aux conservateurs de leur bord, comme les salafistes, davantage qu’aux différentes composantes de la société. Il y a eu un repli sur un discours identitaire et populiste pour flatter le supposé électorat islamiste, avec des débordements au sein du parti.

–          Le refus du gouvernement technocratique s’exprime d’ailleurs dans ces deux camps avec la mise en avant de deux légitimités concurrentielles. Les opposants estiment que les islamistes ne sont plus légitimes du tout. Le parti conservateur Nidaa Tounes s’appuie sur une légitimité sécuritaire pour demander leur départ, estimant que les islamistes créent une instabilité car ils sont des éléments contre-nature dans une société profondément laïque. Le parti Ennahda s’est lui radicalisé sur une frange islamiste et populiste. Il invoque une légitimité électorale de type populiste pour refuser un gouvernement de technocrates.

–          Les victimes de cette polarisation sont le président de la Constituante, Mustapha Ben Jaffar, et le président de la République, Moncef Marzouki, car ils sont entrés dans une coalition au pouvoir avec Ennahda. Leurs discours de modération ne prennent plus. Ils sont inaudibles quand ils appellent à l’union nationale et au dépassement d’une opposition manichéenne entre laïcs et religieux.

–          Quels sont les rapports de force au sein du parti Ennahda entre une frange jugée modérée, à l’instar de Hamadi Jebali, et une frange plus radicale ?

–          On aurait pu penser que Ennahda allait suivre la stratégie du parti islamiste turc de l’AKP d’ouverture libérale et démocratique pour rassurer les Occidentaux en se désislamisant et en mettant de côté le régime identitaire et religieux pour se normaliser. Cela était plausible au vu des discours de leur chef Rached Ghannouchi, qui jouait là-dessus. Or, on voit que Hamadi Jebali reste lui dans ce registre, alors que celui qui le défendait le plus et se posait en arbitre de cela, Rached Ghannouchi, a pris le parti du camp identitaire. Hamadi Jebali se retrouve en porte-à-faux, mettant en avant un registre pragmatique face à une direction du parti qui est identitaire. Il est minoritaire, comme le montre le vote de la direction du parti.

On ne sait pas s’il devrait démissionner face à ce désaveu. Cela pourrait avoir un effet salvateur en amenant à une clarification et à une scission au sein du parti, entre une ligne conservatrice majoritaire et une ligne démocratisante qui formerait un nouveau parti libéral conservateur, ayant une petite identité religieuse. Cette ligne serait sans aucun doute minoritaire à court terme, mais peut-être pas à long terme.

Propos recueillis par Hélène Sallon

Tunisia must address economic woes to avoid unrest spilling over

While not yet on the brink of another Arab spring, Tunisia’s leaders must do more to boost jobs and tackle corruption

–          Tunisia’s President Moncef Marzouki has warned that if the economy is not fixed there will be a ‘revolution within the revolution’. Photograph: Martial Trezzini/AP

–          Tunisia has stood out as a model of relatively peaceful democratic change amid Arab turbulence. But the tumult that rages just below the surface – from churning labour unrest to the explosive Salafist riots which attracted angry marginalised youth – are a clear sign that the social and economic causes of the Arab spring have not subsided.

–          The revolution brought major political changes but the economic devastation of the struggle, coupled with the side-effects of the European economic downturn, are helping undermine confidence in the new government. Tunisian president Moncef Marzouki recently warned that if the new number one priority, the Tunisian economy, is not fixed, there will be a "revolution within the revolution".

Tunisia is not yet on the brink of another full-blown "Arab spring". Neither the large political parties nor big labour are itching for another showdown. But to contain growing economic and social unrest, prime minister Hamadi Jebali and his team must address three key issues.

–          First, they have to tackle unemployment, particularly that of jobless university graduates, who have been taking to the streets since January 2011.

–          Second, Tunisia needs to address stark regional disparities that deprive interior and peri-urban areas of economic development.

–          Third, the government must act decisively to prevent the corrupt practices of the previous regime’s patrons from simply changing hands to new practitioners of equally devastating, if less flagrant, corruption.

–          Jebali’s government, led by the moderately Islamist Ennahda party, is fully aware of the problems. But so far it has failed to keep apace of demands for change since the October 2011 elections, in which Tunisia’s more economically marginal populations propelled "uncorrupted" but untested revolutionary parties into the ruling coalition at the expense of the better-known politicians perceived as "tainted" by their accommodations with power. Only by experiencing some measure of prosperity will these more revolutionary workers and unemployed youths see the benefit of their protests.

–          All is far from lost. Despite the recent moves to fire the of the head of the central bank, Tunisia’s financial institutions are working competently and companies are functioning. While tourism was hit hard, it is slowly recovering. The Tunisian government has introduced some successful stopgap measures, including modest allocations for some 200,000 unemployed graduates, tens of thousands of public works jobs, and massive subsidies for staples like milk, eggs, semolina, sugar, and fuel. The trick will be to build on these economic foundations without overly stirring up new demands that will delay public and private sector recovery.

–          To get the ball rolling, the government must implement more far-reaching social and economic policies. First, the National Constituent Assembly should launch emergency procedures to break down administrative barriers that are keeping jobs from university graduates and hindering regional development.

One way would be to set up a commission to rapidly approve projects that address those key problems. Committees of inquiry made up of local mediators and security forces could also be launched to resolve violent local conflicts, particularly in the poorer western and southern regions, the mining basin and depressed peri-urban areas. Following local consultations, ministries and local authorities should then be empowered to follow up on the recommendations.

–          Most Tunisians, like most labourers in the region, work in the informal sector. This sector needs to be transformed from underground status into an engine of growth. Red tape and humiliating treatment that stop Tunisians like Mohamed Bouazizi and three dozen unfortunate self-immolating copycatters from earning a living should end. Informal sector activities should be mainstreamed without loss of livelihoods. Eventually, these workers will contribute to the tax base of the new economy, fostering government accountability. The state should simplify procedures to start and run a small business, and Tunisia should develop local venture capital capacity.

–          A clear and complete registry of unemployed diploma holders should also be created, coupled with transparent and objective criteria for getting jobs in government and public and private businesses. Several riots, even intra-clan violence, have occurred over unfair hiring practices.

–          For their part, trade unions should focus on labour training and retraining, to help people understand the need to resolve disputes through collective bargaining and develop new skills demanded by the global economy. Meanwhile the international community could support regional and local development, helping with technical assistance and expanding micro-credit lending capacity.

–          The need for effective economic action cannot be overstated. Parties are already repositioning themselves ahead of the next presidential and parliamentary elections. As they do, social unrest may well grow, and, combined with political and identity issues, could boil over into a full blown legitimacy crisis for the government.

At the heart of any set of solutions should be greater consultation and dialogue with all stakeholders. After years of authoritarian rule, and months of protests and economic hardship, the people of Tunisia deserve nothing less.

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Here’s The Real Story of What’s Happening in Tunisia: A Higher Education Bubble

 

 “Carthage Makes Bid For Global Attention After 2000 Years Of Obscurity,” would probably make a great headline in the Onion.

One reason jokes come readily is that not many of us have given much thought to Tunisia. If it is familiar at all, it is probably as the real-life setting of George Lucas’s Tatooine, the home planet of Luke Skywalker. Steven Spielberg filmed parts of Raiders of the Lost Ark there. And students of the classics know that it is where Rome’s arch-nemesis, Carthage, once existed.

But there’s a serious lesson for Americans in Tunisia’s current struggles, although it’s a lesson many Americans may have trouble digesting.

–          First, let’s deal with what’s not happening in Tunisia. Its people are not rising up because they are brutally poor or crushed under the heel of a brutalizing political system.

–          Tunisia has been ruled by a dictatorship ever since it won independence from France in 1956. As such things go, the dictatorship of Tunisia has not been all that bad. Political rights have been severely curtailed but the main suppressed political group is a gang of Islamic radicals who aren’t exactly agitating for a more liberal society. There are privately owned media companies—including radio and television stations—but they rarely offer up criticism of the dictatorship. Newspapers that cross the government have had their circulation runs destroyed. Tunisia’s government is famously efficient at blocking access to internet sites it deems unacceptable. You can’t get YouTube in Tunisia.

–          The Tunisian government, however, doesn’t have a reputation for killing its dissidents. There are no politically motivated “vanishings.” Human Rights groups say that some 2,000 people have been imprisoned on counter-terrorism charges without sufficient evidence. Police interrogation techniques are often brutal. The court system doesn’t reliably provide for fair trials.

–          The First Family of Tunisia—the relatives of Tunisian dictator Ben Ali—are your basic third-world kleptocrats, filling their offshore bank accounts with the country’s wealth and using government jets to visit European and Persian Gulf capitals for shopping trips and the like. All told, however, Tunisia is not all that corrupt, when judged relative to the rest of the world. It falls just about in the middle of Transparency International’s corruption index, at 61 of 179 countries with a score of 4.2 (with 1 the most corrupt and 10 the least corrupt).

–          Tunisia’s economy is not all that bad. It had a growth rate of 3.04 percent in 2010, which puts it tied with Israel and just ahead of Germany and Australia.

–          Prior to the global economic recession, Tunisia was regularly growing at a rate of around 5 percent.

–          Per capita GDP is $9,500—slightly less than Colombia but better than Peru, Thailand or Jamaica.

–          A little more than half of the GDP is created by people working in services, while slightly less than half of its people are employed in that area. It exports around $16 billion of goods and services a year, mostly to France and Italy. It imports around $20 billion, mostly from France and Italy. Inflation runs at 4.5 percent.

In sum, if you imagine Tunisia as a slightly better than average post-colonial tin-pot dictatorship, with a government that seems not to be totally economically incompetent, you won’t be far off.

So if it isn’t politics or economics, what is it that lead the people of Tunisia to rise up and overthrow their government?

–          Tunisia’s big problem is said to be unemployment. But unemployment there is running at somewhere between 13 percent and 14 percent, which isn’t really so bad. The real problem is that Tunisia cannot create suitable employment for the huge numbers of college graduates it creates every year.

That’s right: the education bubble popped in Tunisia.

–          Tunis