Gli aumenti salariali della Cina si espandono attraverso l’Asia
JAMES HOOKWAY (Kuala Lumpur), PATRICK BARTA (Bangkok) e DANA MATTIOLI (New York)
● Negli ultimi mesi è in aumento la pressione salariale nei paesi del S-E Asia che si ponevano come alternativa alle società che se ne vanno dalla Cina per i crescenti costi. I governi sollecitano le imprese ad aumentare i salari,
o per prevenire rivolte sociali come quelle che hanno scosso il Nord Africa e Medio Oriente derivanti dal crescente divario di reddito tra le classi,
o oppure lo scoppio di lotte operaie e conseguente aumento dei costi di produzione per i gruppi internazionalizzati.
– Salari maggiori dovrebbero servire a incentivare i consumi interni, alimentando la crescita economica in una fase di calo della domanda di esportazione occidentale e di aumento dei prezzi petroliferi.
– Le rivendicazioni salariali dei lavoratori asiatici derivano anche dalla conoscenza tramite internet delle migliori condizioni dei lavoratori di altri paesi.
– Dopo le lotte salariali dei settori operai a basso salario in Tailandia ed Indonesia è aumentata la pressione anche sul governo della Malesia, che in preparazione ad elezioni nazionali, ha approvato il primo salario minimo (tra 800-900 ringgit mensili =$264-297, equivalente a +15% per i redditi inferiori);
– In Malesia le amministrazioni locali hanno il potere di stabilire i salari minimi, che così possono essere aumentati in alcune regioni ed in altre no; a febbraio migliaia di lavoratori hanno bloccato per ore il traffico in un sobborgo di Jakarta, chiedendo il salario minimo. In alcune città suburbane dove si sono insediate fabbriche di centinaia di gruppi esteri, le amministrazioni hanno aumentato il salario minimo locale di oltre il 20%.
– Nei due anni scorsi in Cina:
o salario minimo: Pechino a gennaio 2012, +8,6% (1260 yuan, $199); da febbraio, Shenzhen, città in forte espansione nel Sud Cina +14%, (1500 yuan);
o da aprile, Tianjin, città portuale nel N-E, +13% (1310 yuan).
o Un rappresentante PMI della Malesia, sì al salario minimo, ma non troppo superiore agli attuali 500 ringgit mensili di molte piccole imprese; Confindustria malese: rischio di perdite occupazionali per chiusure di imprese o delocalizzazioni …
– In alcune aeree dell’Indonesia, salario minimo + 20%;
– Tailandia, dal 1° aprile in programma un aumento del salario minimo che porterebbe aumenti fino al 40% in diverse regioni del paese, a circa 300 baht al giorno ($9,78).
o Richieste di aumenti salariali anche in Cambogia, Sri Lanka e Bangladesh.
– Secondo alcuni economisti gli aumenti del salario minimo in paesi come la Tailandia hanno solo recuperato un decennio di svalutazione salariale dovuta all’inflazione.
– La spinta ad aumenti salariali è una sfida per le società che si sono basate sulla manifattura asiatica a basso costo, gruppi multinazionali compresi come Nike, Adidas, Dell, etc., o i loro fornitori.
– Alcune società, a fronte degli aumenti salariali nel 2009 e 2010, hanno già spostato parte della produzione dalla Cina o dall’Indonesia al Vietnam, dove gli aumenti salariali sono uguali in % a quelli cinesi (10-12%), ma in assoluto sono ancora inferiori.
o Possibilità di condizioni favorevoli sono offerte anche da Egitto e Giordania, con i programmi di 0 dazio.
– In Cina lo sviluppo economico che consente a gruppi di salariati di trovare lavoro più vicino al loro luogo d’origine, abbandonando i maggiori centri industriali; ad es. ad inizio del nuovo anno cinese, il 60% dei salariati del gruppo Charming Shoppes se ne sono andati. Il gruppo Charming ha visto aumenti del 10 12% dei salari anche in Indonesia e Vietnam.
Gruppi sudcoreani, taiwanesi, giapponesi di abbigliamento, calzature, elettronica che operano in Indonesia pensano di trasferirsi altrove, temendo altri aumenti salariali come mossa elettorale per le elezioni dei prossimi due anni.
By JAMES HOOKWAY in Kuala Lumpur, PATRICK BARTA in Bangkok and DANA MATTIOLI in New York
– More Asian governments are pressing businesses to hike wages as a way to prevent outbreaks of labor unrest, raising the specter of higher manufacturing costs for global companies—and the products they sell world-wide.
Asian governments are pushing businesses to increase wages as a way to prevent outbreaks of labor unrest. Pictured, a Jakarta protest over wages in January.
– In the latest move, Malaysia’s cabinet has approved the country’s first-ever minimum wage to be imposed soon, according to people familiar with the matter. The decision follows similar moves elsewhere in the region, as officials from Thailand to Indonesia follow efforts by China over the past two years to boost pay after years of widening gaps between rich and poor.
– Global companies already have been facing higher labor prices in China over the past year, despite a weak global economy, as workers demand a greater share of the country’s economic boom. In recent months, the pressure also has intensified in countries across Southeast Asia that have marketed themselves as alternatives for companies seeking to escape China’s rising costs, leaving those companies now with fewer places to move.
– Over the past year, for example, U.S. menswear retailer Jos. A. Banks Clothiers Inc. has moved some manufacturing from China to cheaper locations in Asia such as Indonesia, as the price of labor and goods increased. CEO Neal Black said that while he hasn’t noticed wage inflation in Indonesia yet, he expects it. "The garment business always moves around the developing world," Mr. Black said. "It brings jobs, those people become skilled and then move on to products like electronics."
A Malaysian worker loads palm-oil fruits onto a truck. The country is preparing to establish its first minimum wage.
– With this in mind, Jos. A Banks, which also produces in Sri Lanka and Malaysia, is adding capacity in other parts of the world, including Central America and countries such as Haiti and Jordan.
– Asian governments, in some cases, are embracing the call for higher salaries, in part to head off the spread of the kind of unrest that has toppled Middle Eastern regimes recently—and to calm rising labor actions in their countries.
– They also are hoping the higher wages will help consumers boost spending, providing a new engine of growth at a time when slack demand for exports in the West and higher oil prices are worrying policy makers across the region.
– Political leaders say they have little choice but to act, as voters grow savvier about wage gains elsewhere, which they can research on the Internet. Recent protests by low-income workers in places like Indonesia and Thailand have added to pressure on governments to raise wages.
"There is a genuine feeling that the low-wage segments [of Asia’s population] haven’t made much progress in recent years" as the gap between rich and poor has widened in some areas, said Edward Teather, an economist at UBS in Singapore.
– Economists have argued that, in some respects, minimum wage hikes in countries like Thailand are only putting some workers back to where they were a decade ago, once inflation is factored in.
– Beijing raised its minimum monthly wage by 8.6% to 1,260 yuan ($199) starting in January, according to the state-run Xinhua news agency. The following month, the southern boomtown of Shenzhen raised its compulsory monthly wage by nearly 14% to 1,500 yuan. The northeastern port city of Tianjin will raise its minimum wage nearly 13% to 1,310 yuan starting in April, Xinhua said.
– China’s moves, in part, have helped spur other such changes in the region. Indonesian workers in some areas have secured minimum-wage increases of more than 20% in recent months.
– Thailand plans to introduce a higher minimum wage beginning in April that will push salaries up about 40% in many parts of the country.
– Labor advocates in Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh also are calling for higher wages.
– In Malaysia, people familiar with the situation said officials are working out the details of that country’s new minimum wage, which the cabinet recently approved ahead of national elections, expected in the next few months.
– The level will vary across the country and fall in the range of 800 Malaysian ringgit to 900 ringgit ($264 to $297) a month, these people said.
Some Malaysian business leaders say they are willing to accept some wage increase—just not as much as the government is proposing.
– "If we want our country to become a high-income nation we need to introduce a minimum wage," said Michael Kang, vice president of the Small and Medium-Size Industries Association of Malaysia. "But the minimum wage should not suddenly jump" from current wage rates of 500 ringgit to 600 ringgit a month at many smaller companies.
– The Malaysian Employers Federation says Malaysia’s move could eventually cost a substantial loss of jobs, forcing companies to close, or find cheaper labor elsewhere, if they can’t adapt to higher payrolls.
– The spread of higher wages is likely to present challenges for the companies that have long relied on Asian manufacturing operations to keep their costs low, potentially including multinationals, such as Nike Inc., Adidas AG, Dell Inc. or their suppliers.
– Women’s specialty retailer New York & Co. Inc. began moving production out of China in 2009 and 2010 as wages rose, shifting much of it to Vietnam.
– "The cost of labor in China has definitely gone up over the last year and a half, causing us to look at other countries," said Greg Scott, CEO of the company, which makes suiting, jackets, pants and skirts in Vietnam.
– On a percentage basis, Mr. Scott added, Vietnam’s wage increases have been on par with that of China’s but the wages are still lower. "Right now, it’s still a very good place for us to produce," Mr. Scott said.
Anthony Romano, CEO of Charming Shoppes Inc., moved production to Indonesia and Vietnam to diversify production away from China, where Mr. Romano said "labor costs are a significant challenge."
– While China is still a significant part of Charming’s manufacturing base, the booming economy there is presenting some issues. Following Lunar New Year, for example, around 60% of workers at a plant used by Charming decided not to return to the factory and instead found jobs closer to their homes, he says.
– But the company, which operates nearly 2,000 stores under the Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug and Catherines names, also has seen wages creep up between 10% and 12% in Indonesia and Vietnam over the past year.
"A lot of folks are looking to these countries to produce, so it increases the prices," he said.
– Despite the rising wages, Charming aims to make 25% to 30% of its products in Vietnam and Indonesia, he added. The company also is looking to countries such as Egypt and Jordan to benefit from their duty-free programs.
Boosting minimum wages risks setting off more inflation at a time when central bankers are worried about increased oil prices. Such a scenario could put the price of ordinary goods out of reach of the people the higher wages are intended to help.
– In Thailand, central bank governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said in a recent interview that he will closely monitor the impact of Thailand’s higher minimum wage when it takes effect on April 1. The rate will rise to 300 baht ($9.78) a day—up about 40% in many parts of the country.
Still, governments and companies are being forced to address worsening labor demands and income gaps, which are growing wider in many parts of the region and causing labor unrest.
"Malaysia will without doubt get a greater degree of social justice in terms of giving people a minimum living wage," economist Nurhisham Hussein at the Malaysian Rating Corp. wrote this week.
– He estimates setting a minimum wage at about 800 ringgit a month could increase the incomes of Malaysia’s poorest people by 15% or more. But, he added, "the benefits won’t be as much as people might think."
– Meanwhile, thousands of workers last month blocked traffic for hours in a Jakarta suburb, demanding their minimum wage be raised.
– There, local authorities have the power to set minimum wages, so some areas can boost wages while others have opted not to.
– Political parties in charge of the suburban cities where hundreds of foreign companies have factories responded to pressure recently by lifting the local minimum wage by more than 20%.
Garment, footwear and electronics manufacturers operating in Indonesia from South Korea, Taiwan and Japan say they are now thinking of taking their factories elsewhere. Some said they fear more wage increases as local politicians try to win votes in elections scheduled over the next two years.
"The government is forcing us to accept this" higher minimum wage, said Sofjan Wanandi, chairman of the Employers’ Association of Indonesia, which is one of Indonesia’s largest business associations and has been involved with the wage negotiations. "Some [foreign] companies are telling me they will leave now."
But with wages now rising in so many places at once, unhappy companies may have few places to escape.
—Celine Fernandez, Carlos Tejada and Eric Bellman contributed to this article.