La partizione del Sudan si prospetta ardua
Scontro tra Sud e Nord su questioni economiche
Editoriale – Il soffio di guerra incendia ancora il Sudan
– Sabato prossimo (9.07.’11) il Sud diventa indipendente, il 54° Stato africano, come decretato dal referendum popolare previsto nell’accordo siglato nel 2005 tra il governo centrale sudanese e il Sud Sudan, sponsorizzato dagli Usa. Rimane il rischio che dalla partizione non si formino due nuovi Stati “falliti”, e della continuazione del conflitto.
– Il Sud, che ha le dimensioni della Nigeria, ha solo 100km di strade asfaltate; manca delle essenziali sovrastrutture statali e deve affrontare ribellioni al suo interno; la corruzione è endemica, gli ex ribelli non si mostrano interessati a creare istituzioni e servizi e ad aprire spazi politici.
– Il Nord: un’Amministrazione centralizzata controllata dalla piccola minoranza araba che governa con il pugno di ferro; rischi di nuove ribellioni nella sua periferia.
– Nelle disputate regioni di confine centinaia di migliaia di profughi cacciati dagli scontri tra le forze governative e le milizie filo-sudiste;
o a fine maggio Khartoum ha preso il controllo militare della città di Abyei, una piccola enclave disputata tra le due parti;
o ha dispiegato le sue forze negli stati del Sud Kordofan e del Nilo Blu, sulla vecchia linea del fronte della guerra civile Nord-Sud (1983-2005).
– Le Monde accusa Khartoum delle violazioni più gravi dell’accordo di pace del 2005; limiti mostrati dalla politica americana più conciliante verso Khartoum;
– Le Monde e FT puntano sulla mediazione dellaCina, principale investitore del petrolifero sudanese. Pechino, rompendo il suo abituale silenzio, ha invitato Nord e Sud alla ragione. Nel passato la Cina ha mitigato la linea dura di Khartoum, ed ora ha influenza anche nel Sud, dove sta negoziando prestiti multimiliardari. Dall’accordo del 2005 l’Occidente, Usa in particolare, ha dissipato molta dell’influenza che aveva sul governo centrale, mentre Pechino l’ha accresciuta e ha interesse a assicurare che il petrolio venga esportato, gran parte in Cina.
– Causa gli scontri, le due parti (Nord Sud) non hanno negoziato sulle loro future relazioni (diritti di cittadinanza, debito estero, commercio),
o Il petrolio del Sud rappresenta il 75% della produzione complessiva, ma il Nord fornisce l’85% del diesel del Sud;
o non c’è alcun accordo su come suddividere, dopo la partizione politica del prossimo sabato 9 luglio, pascoli, denaro e petrolio, in particolare sulla divisione degli introiti petroliferi, 2/3 del quale si trova al Sud, ma è esportato tramite gli oleodotti del Nord, che possiede anche raffinerie e terminali per l’esportazione, carte che può usare a proprio vantaggio per negoziare un nuovo accordo di ripartizione degli introiti petroliferi.
o Il presidente Bashir ha minacciato di bloccare l’oleodotto del Nord, per il quale passa il petrolio del Sud se non si raggiunge un accordo sulla divisione delle risorse.
o Un blocco informale del combustibile da parte di Khartoum ha fatto salire i prezzi a $10/litro (le società parlano di aumenti del 300-800% da maggio), un segnale che Khartoum sta cercando di strozzare l’economia del Sud, con un “embargo economico” (come definito dal Sud) contribuendo all’inflazione del 39,4%/anno in maggio, derivante dalla carenza di merci vendute da Khartoum (dalle cipolle alla farina, salita quest’ultima del 130%).
o La mancanza di un accordo rischia di intralciare la produzione di petrolio, con conseguenze negative per entrambe le economie che da esso dipendono.
– Lo scorso mese nello Stato petrolifero di confine del Kordofan meridionale decine di migliaia di sudanesi sono fuggiti da pulizia etnica e bombardamenti delle forze governative di Khartoum contro i gruppi armati del Sud.
– 800mila i sud-sudanesi che abitano al Nord; lo scorso mese il governo del Nord ha deciso di licenziare dall’8 luglio di tutti i lavoratori del Sud impiegati nel settore pubblico e privato.
– IOM, l’Agenzia Onu per le migrazioni, prevede che nei prossimi 6 mesi 400mila di loro si trasferiscano al Sud.
o Alcuni Stati del Sud non hanno legami con la nuova capitale Juba, e sono fortemente dipendenti dal Nord.
o La associazione dei petrolieri del Sud ha concordato di bloccare i pressi al doppio di quelli normali e di condividere quello che riesce ad avere.
Sudan’s partition faces rocky road
– The US-backed accords that brought a halt to half a century of intermittent civil war between north and south Sudan envisaged separation as a last resort. Six years later it has come to that: the south becomes independent on Saturday. No doubt it will be a day of celebration for southern Sudanese, who voted overwhelmingly to turn their back on their northern oppressors. But the break-up of the country provides no guarantee that the future on either side of the border will be better. Rather, there is every possibility that from the failed state that spawned Africa’s longest civil war will be born two failed states, each containing the seeds of future conflicts.
– The south, alone the size of Nigeria, has barely 100km of paved road. It lacks most of the essentials of statehood and already faces rebellion on several fronts from within. Since the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement began governing autonomously, the former rebels have shown scant commitment to building institutions and services or opening up the political space. Corruption is endemic.
– The north, too, carries the disease that led to civil war – a centralised administration dominated by a small Arab minority that governs with an iron fist. If there is no change at the centre, Khartoum will no doubt face fresh rebellions on its peripheries, further fragmenting what was Africa’s largest state.
– The signs are inauspicious. Fighting between government forces and militias sympathetic to the south has driven hundreds of thousands from their homes in disputed border regions. The violence has held up negotiations on issues central to future relations between the two states such as rights to citizenship, external debt and cross border trade. Most worryingly, only days from partition, there is no agreement on sharing revenues from oil, two-thirds of which is in the south but which is exported through pipelines in the north.
– It is in the interests of both sides to reach agreement on this and prevent a disruption to production that would have disastrous consequences for both oil-dependent economies. This might allow Khartoum to wean itself off southern oil but expect greater control by the south down the line. For the south, it is a question of paying for independence with blood or money.
– Since the 2005 peace agreement was signed, the west, notably Washington has squandered much of the leverage it once had in Khartoum with empty promises and empty threats. It is a sign of the times that Beijing now has a stronger hand – as well as a stronger interest in ensuring that the oil flows, much of it to China. Through discreet diplomacy, China has in the past helped temper Khartoum’s hard-line tendencies. It now has clout in the south too, where it is negotiating multi-billion dollar loans. Western countries have a continued responsibility to see through a peaceful partition, having overseen the peace agreement that foresaw a possible break-up. But China should be encouraged to use its greater capital to persuade both sides to be reasonable in the tense months ahead.
South Sudan in economic tussle with north
– As Africa’s largest country prepares to split in two this week, celebratory preparations in southern Sudan’s capital mask concern about the economic stranglehold exerted by its northern neighbour.
– President Omar al-Bashir’s northern government has been praised for smoothing the way to the south’s independence, after a referendum in January opened the door to division after years of civil war. But since then, the Khartoum administration has walked an increasingly hard line that threatens hard-won peace as north and south fail to agree on how to divide turf, currency and oil after the split on July 9.
– Last month, tens of thousands of Sudanese fled alleged ethnic cleansing and aerial bombardments by Khartoum government forces seeking to neutralise southern-aligned armed groups in the oil-rich border state of Southern Kordofan.
– At the same time, a fuel blockade has sent prices soaring to $10 a litre, underlining fears that Khartoum is trying to squeeze the south’s economy.
– Southern oil accounts for 75 per cent of the country’s production but the north supplies 85 per cent of the south’s diesel. An unofficial blockade has brought vehicles and generators to a halt in remote regions. The black market supplies what little it can at high prices. Companies and embassies told the Financial Times their fuel bills had risen between 300 per cent and 800 per cent since May.
– “They say they have not shut the border but when security agents at [northern river port] Kosti stop our supplies, what else is that?” said Clement Kenyi, manager of Abiem Petroleum, one of six fuel depots in the southern capital Juba. The company, which usually receives 3,600 drums a month by barge, says it has received nothing since May.
– A Kenyan trucking company told the Financial Times that 16 fully loaded fuel lorries were forced to unload in the north and returned empty.
– The southern petroleum association has agreed to cap official prices at twice the usual rate and share what little it gets. Often, arrivals have been requisitioned by the southern government, said Mr Kenyi, who now supplies only the army.
– The squeeze has contributed to southern inflation of 39.4 per cent in the year to May. This reflects a shortage of goods traded from Khartoum, from onions to flour, in what southern officials term an “economic embargo”. The price of wheat flour alone is up 130 per cent.
– “They don’t have the right to close the border but they want to show that without the north, you people cannot live,” David Chan Thiang, director of economic statistics for the southern administration, said. “Some states don’t have a link with Juba and are heavily, heavily dependent on the north of Sudan.”
– At the same time, the southern government is concentrating on the imminent arrival of 30 heads of state in the world’s newest and most dishevelled capitals, full of dirt roads and shipping containers for hotel rooms.
– The mayor has imposed a $75 fine for dropping litter. Women bent double sweep the roads, young men mend potholes and roof airport buildings, while Chinese workers illuminate night skies with stadium lights. Newly tarred streets are a mass of congratulatory slogans, praising the “bullets and ballots” that have won the south independence after decades of civil war and a 2005 peace deal.
– But, as the date of the split nears, the stakes are rising. Mr Bashir has threatened to block the northern pipeline through which the south exports oil unless they can agree a deal on how to share resources. Renewed violence along the border is said to resemble “ethnic cleansing”.
– In an indication of the threat facing 800,000 southern Sudanese who live in the north, Mr Bashir’s government last month terminated the service of all southern Sudanese in government and private sector jobs from July 8, subject to visa applications.
United Nations migration agency IOM expects 400,000 to shift south in the next six months.
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Editorial du "Monde" – Le souffle de la guerre embrase encore le Soudan
LEMONDE | 08.06.11 | 12h52
– Le 9 juillet devait être une fête pour le Sud-Soudan. Un jour historique pour célébrer la naissance du 54e Etat africain – capitale : Jouba. Il y a quelques semaines encore, l’optimisme était de mise. On saluait l’esprit pacifique qui avait entouré la tenue du référendum sur l’autodétermination de janvier. On s’étonnait, pour s’en féliciter, de la bonne volonté de Khartoum pour s’incliner devant le choix quasi unanime des Sud-Soudanais en faveur de la partition de ce qui demeure, pour un mois encore, le pays le plus étendu d’Afrique.
– Cette attitude conciliante du président Omar Al-Bachir n’allait pas de soi. Avec l’indépendance du Sud, l’homme fort de Khartoum voit partir une région qui recèle les trois quarts des réserves nationales de pétrole. Mais le Nord, disposant des infrastructures (oléoducs, raffineries, terminaux d’exportation), on se disait qu’il avait entre les mains suffisamment de cartes pour négocier à son avantage un nouvel accord de répartition des revenus pétroliers.
– Hélas, Khartoum a fait le choix de la force pour arriver à ses fins. Profitant de l’inquiétante impuissance des casques bleus de l’ONU déployés dans la région, l’armée nordiste a pris le contrôle, fin mai, de la ville d’Abyei, une enclave minuscule, mais éternelle pomme de discorde entre le Nord, arabe et musulman, et le Sud, peuplé de Noirs chrétiens ou animistes. L’armée de Khartoum est aussi sortie de ses casernes dans les Etats du Kordofan-Sud et du Nil Bleu, sur l’ancienne ligne de front durant la guerre civile qui opposa le Nord et le Sud de 1983 à 2005. La région du Darfour s’embrase à nouveau. Les anciens rebelles sudistes au pouvoir à Jouba, la capitale du Sud-Soudan, accusent Khartoum d’attiser diverses insurrections chez eux.
– Les accrochages armés sont devenus si fréquents qu’un expert jugeait récemment que la région était de nouveau au bord de la guerre.
– Certes, les anciens rebelles sudistes portent leur part de responsabilité dans l’escalade de la violence. Mais la communauté internationale doit cesser de renvoyer les deux parties dos à dos : les violations les plus graves de l’accord de paix de 2005 sont à mettre sur le compte de Khartoum, de son armée, de ses milices.
– Inculpé par la Cour pénale internationale pour les crimes commis au Darfour, le président Bachir s’est lancé dans une fuite en avant meurtrière afin de se maintenir au pouvoir coûte que coûte, alors que souffle à ses frontières le vent des révoltes arabes.
– Comment éviter que la situation ne dégénère ? La nouvelle politique américaine, plus conciliante à l’adresse de Khartoum, a montré ses limites. L’espoir viendra peut-être de la Chine, principal investisseur dans l’industrie pétrolière soudanaise. Rompant avec son habituel silence sur les affaires intérieures soudanaises, Pékin a appelé le Nord et le Sud à la retenue. Une pression conjuguée des deux devrait ramener Bachir à la raison, afin qu’il respecte un accord de paix qui fut si difficile à obtenir. Avant qu’il ne soit trop tard.
Article paru dans l’édition du 09.06.11