La UE ha urgente bisogno del sostegno di Pechino per i titoli di Stato, PATIENCE WHEATCROFT
– La Cina ha comunicato che si prepara ad aiutare la UE acquistando titoli di Stato di Grecia e Portogallo, ma pone delle condizioni, riprova del forte cambiamento delle relative posizioni dei due blocchi rispetto all’era di Mao.
o Il ministro cinese al Commercio ha dichiarato: «Vogliamo vedere se la UE è in grado di controllare i rischi del debito sovrano e se il consenso può essere trasformato in azione reale che faccia emergere l’Europa dalla crisi finanziaria presto e bene.
– La Cina è il mercato di esportazione dell’Europa in maggior crescita: nel 2009 l’export europeo in Cina a €82MD, +4%;
– nei primi 8 mesi del 2010, +40% su stesso periodo 2009,
– ma secondo la Commissione UE, il livello in cifre assolute è ancora inferiore alle possibilità della “relazione speciale” Europa-Cina.
– Il surplus commerciale cinese con la UE dei primi 11 mesi 2010 sarebbe a €131MD.
– Al Terzo vertice economico e commerciale UE-Cina, a Pechino, la delegazione UE ha sottolineato l’importanza di accedere alle materie prime, in particolare a minerali rari essenziali per l’alta tecnologia e per le tecnologie rinnovabili;
– la Cina, che fornisce il 97% di questi minerali rari, non ha dato garanzie.
– Ribadito dal vice primo ministro cinese, Li Keqiang (probabile primo ministro fra due anni), l’impegno di Pechino ad aiutare la Spagna;
– La Cina, con il 10% tra i maggiori detentori del debito sovrano spagnolo, acquisterà ancora titoli spagnoli, a seconda delle condizioni di mercato; questo rientra nel programma di diversificazione delle riserve in valuta estera pari a oltre $2 600 MD.
– Primi accordi tra i due paesi per un valore di $7,3 MD, riguardanti 16 settori, tra i quali energia, banche, tlc, trasporto e agricoltura.
o Quello più importante ($7,1 MD) è quello per l’acquisizione di asset brasiliani del gruppo petrolifero spagnolo Respsol YPF SA da parte di Sinopec, o China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.
o Repsol informa che i due gruppi si sono impegnati a studiare nuove opportunità a livello internazionale; il ministro spagnolo dell’Industria: rafforzeremo le relazioni nel settore energia e collaboreremo per gli investimenti esteri.
o Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), seconda maggiore banca spagnola, ha siglato un accordo di cooperazione per l’America Latina con la China Development Bank; BBVA è il maggior investitore spagnolo in Cina, dove ha una quota del 15% nella China Citic Bank Corp.
– Accordo per l’acquisto da parte della Cina di $13,5 mn. di prodotti di carne, $9 mn. di olio di oliva, $6 mn. di vino e $260 000 di prosciutto.
– Li Keqiang ha dichiarato a Zapatero che: la Cina vuole un’Europa unita, forte e stabile, in cui la Spagna è importante nelle relazioni internazionali multilaterali; la Cina ha fiducia e grande interesse nel mercato spagnolo.
The Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing was once the residence of Madam Mao. Now it provides China with an equivalent of Camp David, a high security compound for state visitors, and at the beginning of this week it was the site for the 3rd EU-China High Level Economic and Trade Dialogue.
Although the official communiques describe the talks in positive terms, there must have been moments when the EU delegation reflected ruefully on how the relative standing of the two blocs had changed since Chairman Mao’s grim Cultural Revolution. A hint of what really went on inside the 800-year-old building came from the Chinese commerce minister, Chen Deming, who told the People’s Daily: "We want to see if the EU is able to control sovereign debt risks and whether consensus can be translated into real action to enable Europe to emerge from the financial crisis soon and in a good shape."
As much of Europe continues to struggle with its mountainous debts, China has let it be known that it will be prepared to help out by buying bonds from stricken Greece and Portugal but part of the price will be enduring lectures from the new paymasters.
Mr Deming’s qualms are, in any case, well justified. Another wave of protests against austerity measures erupted this week, with Greece brought to a halt by transport strikes and Italy beset by student demonstrators. In the U.K., Len McCluskey, the new head of the largest trade union, announced that he will convene a January meeting to discuss a "broad strike movement."
Governments which have, in some cases reluctantly, and only under pressure from their rescuers, adopted austerity measures will find it was easier to announce them than to put them into effect.
But as 2010 nears its end, there is in Europe a widespread acceptance of the fact that there are tough times ahead. A survey by Gallup International, conducted across 53 countries and reported on the BBC, found that people in 19 countries were generally optimistic about their well being for 2011 and people in 34 countries were not. Most European countries fell into the second group while countries such as China and India were firmly in the first group.
Concerns over employment were one of the major factors influencing views in the west. With the public sector set to cut jobs in over-borrowed countries, the fear is that new jobs will be hard to find.
That is one reason why the EU delegation made the trip to Beijing. China is Europe’s fastest growing export market. EU exports to China reached €82 billion ($107 billion) last year, up 4% on the previous year, but this year has seen a much faster increase. In the 8 months to the end of August, the increase over the same period in 2009 was almost 40%. But, says the European Commission: "The absolute level of EU exports remains below the potential" that the designated "special relationship" between the two would justify. According to the Chinese, the country’s trade surplus with the EU for the first 11 months of the year was a whopping $131 billion.
So even if it meant putting up with some lecturing on the errors of over-borrowing, Commission vice-president, Joaquin Almunia and his colleagues judged that the potential gains from the dialogue would make the visit worthwhile. They could, after all, retaliate with some comment on the evils of consumers under-spending.
But the communiques coming out of the meeting are short on detailed good news. There was an agreement to speed up a feasibility study for a bilateral investment treaty and some movement to enhance mutual trade in high-tech products. Yet while the EU team stressed the importance of access to raw materials, and in particular the rare earths which are essential components in many high technology and renewable technologies, it did not return from Beijing brandishing guarantees of supply. This is a crucial issue since China is now responsible for 97% of sales of these aptly named rare commodities.
Yet the EU is not in an enviable negotiating position. With the ratings agencies threatening another downgrade for both Portugal and Greece, the most pressing need is for China’s support of the bond auctions which will be essential in the new year. The shifting balance of power which was a main theme in 2010 has a long way further to go and will be one of the major forces shaping the next decade.
Ernst & Young insists that it will put up a vigorous defence to the charge that it helped Lehman Brothers stage a "massive accounting fraud." At this stage, the firm could hardly say anything else, even if there were some within the firm were already calculating what sum might buy a speedy settlement of what could be a highly damaging case.
The role of auditors in the banking crisis has occasioned remarkably little comment and less action. The fact remains, however, that the auditors’ reports attached to banks which then came close to collapse gave no hint of their risky states.
Yet the Cuomo case against Ernst and Young goes further than failing to spot risks. The firm signed off on transactions which enabled Lehman to give a totally false picture of its financial state. Legal opinion, understandably sought, declared that if the transactions were sited in the U.K., then the practice was acceptable. Ernst & Young say that: "There is no factual or legal basis for a claim to be brought against an auditor in this context where the accounting for the underlying transaction is in accordance with the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles."
Which might leave reasonable people to wonder whether the terms "accounting" and "principles" belong together.
MADRID—Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang Wednesday reiterated Beijing’s pledge to support Spain in a meeting with the country’s prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, as the two countries began signing $7.3 billion in deals.
China’s Vice-Premier Li Keqiang, second from left, and Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero talk as Chinese Vice-Minister of Energy Qian Zhimin, left, and Spanish Minister of Industry Miguel Sebastian sign a commercial agreement at Madrid’s Moncloa Palace on Wednesday.
Mr. Li, widely expected to become China’s next premier within the next two years, told Mr. Zapatero that China wanted a united, strong and stable Europe, with Spain an important player in multilateral international relations.
"China is a long-term and responsible investor in the Spanish and European financial markets, and it has confidence and great interest in the Spanish market," Mr. Li said on the second day of a nine-day tour of the European Union[e] in a show of support for China’s largest export market.
The contracts cover 16 sectors, including energy, banking, telecommunications, transport and agriculture, but by far the most valuable one was the sealing of a previously announced $7.1 billion acquisition of certain Brazilian assets of Spanish oil firm Repsol YPF SA by China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec.
Repsol said in a statement Tuesday that the two companies pledged to analyze new business opportunities world-wide. Spain’s Industry Ministry also said Wednesday that Spain and China will "strengthen their relationship" in the energy sector and collaborate on foreign investments.
Mr. Li said Beijing would welcome Spanish financial companies launching operations in China. Spain’s second largest bank, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, signed a co-operation agreement for Latin America with China Development Bank, BBVA said Wednesday. The two hope to work together in project finance, commercial services, derivatives and corporate banking, the Spanish lender said. BBVA is the largest Spanish investor in China, where it has a 15% stake in China Citic Bank Corp.
Among other contracts to be signed were deals for China to purchase $13.5 million of meat products, $9 million of olive oil, $6 million of wine and $260,000 of ham from Spain, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported.
Mr. Li said China will likely purchase more Spanish government bonds depending on market conditions after a meeting Tuesday with Spanish Economy and Finance Minister Elena Salgado, Xinhua reported earlier. China is one of the biggest owners of Spain’s sovereign debt, holding around 10% of the total.
Mr. Li’s comments come as China aims to strengthen ties with the EU, its biggest trading partner, and amid continued pressure from Washington, which is urging Beijing to let the yuan appreciate faster to reduce the trade imbalance with the U.S., China’s next-largest trade partner.
China is keen to diversify more of its massive foreign-exchange reserves—at more than $2.6 trillion, the world’s largest—away from U.S. dollar-denominated assets.
In December, Portuguese newspaper Jornal de Negócios reported that China would invest between €4 billion ($5.32 billion) and €5 billion in Portuguese bonds to help Portugal refinance €15 billion of debt due to expire before April.
China has expressed its support for countries including Portugal and Greece, but has yet to confirm any details of its bond purchases. Spain is the first stop on Mr. Li’s visit to Europe, which will include visits to Germany and the U.K.