Ue, economia, paesi
– L’accelerazione tedesca nel secondo trimestre 2010 (+9%) rivela che la Germania ha beneficiato delle difficoltà nei paesi ai margini della UE, e della svalutazione di circa il 15% dell’€ da dicembre a giugno, che ha favorito il suo export alimentato dalle PMI;
o gli investitori hanno acquistato le obbligazioni tedesche ritenute sicure, e questo ha tenuto basso il costo del prestito, e favorito gli investimenti.
o La crescente divergenza tra il Nord e il Sud della zona euro – che potrebbe crescere nel resto dell’anno a causa delle rigide misure di austerità in attuazione – fa emergere quello che gli economisti chiamano il “fatale difetto” dell’area: un’unica politica monetaria da applicare a paesi con situazioni di crescita ed inflazione molto differenziate.
– 16 paesi della zona euro: registrata nel secondo trimestre 2010 la maggiore crescita degli ultimi 4 anni, +3,9% su base annuale (contro +3% previsto), trainata dalla crescita inaspettata della Germania, il cui PIL rappresenta quasi il 30% del totale, la maggiore dalla riunificazione 20 anni fa’,
– sostenuta dall’export di macchinari ed auto in Asia ed altri mercati emergenti, e dagli investimenti, e all’interno dalla ripresa della costruzione infrastrutture, dopo l’inverno rigido.
– Escludendo la Germania, la crescita dell’area euro è del 2,5%.
– Forti differenze nell’andamento economico all’interno del blocco UE, con Francia (+2,5%), Austria ed Olanda (+3,5%) che hanno approfittato della crescita tedesca;
– in Est Europa, che ha sostenuto l’export tedesco: Cekia (+3%), Slovacchia (+5%).
– Irlanda: le misure d’austerità contro il deficit statale a due cifre hanno ridotto la spesa per infrastrutture.
– Il direttore della Camera industria e commercio tedesca: questo ritmo di crescita non può continuare. Altalena dell’€ (giugno a $1,18; inizio agosto $1,33, poi a $1,30.
– BCE, cauta, si prevede mantenga il tasso di sconto all’1%, memore della decisione di aumentarlo 2008 a seguito del +6% per Germania ad inizio anno, e della recessione globale seguita.
– Criticato il modello economico tedesco volto all’export e il forte tasso di risparmio della Germania che non beneficiano l’area UE, in particolare il Sud Europa, dove l’economia di Grecia (-6%), Portogallo e Spagna è in contrazione nel secondo trimestre.
USA e Asia in rallentamento, fanno prevedere un rallentamento globale nel secondo semestre.
Germany Propels Growth in Euro Zone
Exports Help Bloc Notch 3.9% Expansion Pace, but Economists Say Rise Is Unsustainable; Trouble at Continent’s Fringes
By BRIAN BLACKSTONE
FRANKFURT—The euro-zone economy tore past the U.S. in the second quarter thanks to a 9% jump in German growth—but the surge is expected to fade fast, adding to concerns about the global recovery.
– The euro-zone economy grew at its fastest pace in four years, driven by an unexpectedly strong surge in Germany, but analysts warn that the pace of expansion is likely to slow in the second half. Dennis Berman and Dave Kansas discuss. Also, Nando DiFino discusses the PGA Championship in which Tiger Woods tries to hold onto his number one ranking.
– The 16-nation euro zone grew 3.9% in the second quarter, at an annualized rate, its fastest pace in four years, according to calculations based on data from the EU’s statistics agency Friday. Economists had expected growth closer to 3%. Excluding Germany, which makes up almost 30% of the bloc’s economy, GDP advanced about 2.5%.
– Germany’s robust performance, driven by demand for its exports, stood in contrast to continued malaise in Southern Europe, where countries such as Greece are struggling to repair public finances. The mixed picture in Europe, coupled with concerns that the U.S. and Asia are slowing, has many economists, as well as the European Central Bank, predicting a second-half slowdown for the euro zone.
– "This fast recovery pace can’t be maintained," says Martin Wansleben, managing director of Germany’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
– In recent weeks, Europe appeared to be emerging from its credit crisis faster than anyone had expected. The nearly-$1 trillion rescue fund announced by the European Union[e]in May and last month’s publication of stress- test results for the continent’s banks restored stability to markets and sparked a rally by the euro.
– After tumbling to a four-year low of $1.18 at the height of the debt crisis in June, the euro climbed as high as $1.33 earlier this month.
– The optimism proved short-lived, however. Renewed worries about the global recovery and signs of problems in Ireland’s banks put pressure on the currency this week and it has fallen well below the $1.30 mark. The euro rose only slightly after Friday’s report and fell later in the session—bucking the usual trend of faster growth boosting a currency’s value—and European stocks barely responded to what one economist called "a rogue quarter."
– German growth, the fastest since East and West Germany were rejoined 20 years ago, was spurred by exports of equipment and autos to Asia and other emerging markets, as well as investment. The country was also helped by a surge in construction as many projects delayed by Germany’s harsh winter resumed.
– Germany’s neighbors benefited from its strength, with France recording growth of 2.5% and Austria and the Netherlands both expanding by 3.5%.
– Countries in Eastern Europe that help power Germany’s export machine, also did well. The Czech Republic expanded at about a 3% rate, and Slovakia expanded at close to a 5% rate.
– But there was little evidence of a revival in the countries of Southern Europe, such as Greece, Portugal and Spain, whose debt woes have raised concerns about the stability of the common currency. As a group, those countries shrank in the quarter.
– Europe’s multi-speed recovery could reignite complaints, aired earlier this year, that Germany’s export-oriented model and high rates of saving don’t do much for the region, especially Southern Europe. Critics of Germany’s economic model, including France, complain that the euro zone’s weakest members will have difficulty recovering if Germans don’t spend more. Despite the strength of the German economy, recent data suggest that Germans remain unwilling to commit to new spending, keeping the recovery from having more of a positive effect on the rest of Europe.
– Germany’s second-quarter sprint, which came at the height of the Greek debt crisis, highlights that in some ways Germany was an unintended beneficiary of the struggles in Europe’s fringe.
– The weaker euro—which lost about 15% against the dollar as the crisis unfolded between December and June—boosted German exports, while investors seeking the safety of German bonds drove borrowing costs lower, making it cheaper for companies to invest.
– The growing divide between the euro zone’s Northern and Southern halves exposes what some economists see as the currency area’s fatal flaw—a one-size-fits all monetary policy for a collection of countries with vastly different outlooks for growth and inflation.
– Greece’s 6% contraction in the second quarter offers a stunning contrast to Germany’s 9% growth, for example. The divergence could grow in coming quarters as the harsh austerity planned in Southern Europe begins to bite.
– "It’s a huge dilemma," for the ECB, says Ken Wattret, economist at BNP Paribas. On the heels of Germany’s "super-strong" quarter, some officials "will be very keen to press on" with steps to unwind credit support to the banking system, Mr. Wattret says, which could prove devastating to banks in Southern Europe and Ireland that still depend heavily on ECB funding.
– "You can say it’s great in Germany, but if it’s not great everywhere else in Europe it’s not going to matter to us," says Scot Ballantine, supply-chain manager at Dublin-based Instant Upright, which builds aluminium access towers and custom-made scaffolding for construction, aviation and power-plant customers.
– More than 70% of his firm’s sales come from the rest of Europe, though it doesn’t export much to Germany, where domestic producers dominate that country’s market. He’s not getting any help at home. "There’s still more pain to go through in Ireland," he says. Austerity measures taken in Dublin to narrow a double-digit budget deficit as a share of GDP have curtailed new infrastructure spending, further weighing on an already crippled construction market. "It means a lot of our clients still have very conservative views," Mr. Ballantine says.
– The ECB is cautious, perhaps mindful of the last time Germany posted robust growth, over 6%, in early 2008. The ECB raised interest rates soon after in July 2008—just weeks before Lehman Brothers collapsed and the global economy sank into recession—a move it has been criticized for ever since. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet noted last week that the second-quarter GDP data would be "flattering" for Europe, but cautioned that the second half "will be much less buoyant." The ECB is expected to keep its main policy rate at a record-low 1% until well into 2011 despite recent signs of growth.
For now, business leaders—particularly in Germany—are celebrating growth rates usually reserved for fast-growing emerging markets like China.
"The second quarter of this year was very good, demand and new orders are growing and it’s going to be like this for the last half of the year," says Dagmar Bollin-Flade, chief executive of Frankfurt-based Christian Bollin Armaturenfabrik GmbH, which produces specialty valves for the petrochemical industry and power plants.
– Ms. Bollin-Flade’s 30-person company is one of the tens of thousands of Germany’s small and mid-size companies that power its export-driven economy. She derives about 60% of her €6 million ($7.7 million) in annual revenue from outside Germany, and makes more than 350,000 different kinds of shut-off valves, meaning that even when economic times are tough, there’s always a market. These days, for instance, Europe and Russia are picking up the slack from North and South America, she says.
Christos Kiriakoreizis, a purchasing manager at Philkeram Johnson S.A., a ceramic tile maker in Northern Greece, would like Germany to provide a lift, but he isn’t seeing it so far. "We don’t export to them," he says, in part because Germany has its own tile makers, making transportation too costly in a highly competitive market.
– He isn’t alone in Greece, which ranks 43rd among German importers, behind Bangladesh, Kazakhstan and Vietnam. Mr. Kiriakoreizis is affected by events at home. And it doesn’t look good, as Greece’s real-estate sector remains crippled by a prolonged downturn and rising unemployment. His firm was able to keep its 280-person payroll steady through the worst of Greece’s debt crisis in the spring. But with demand drying up, the company is eyeing elimination of one of its three production lines, which would cut productive capacity from 14,000 square meters of tile a day to about 8,000. That will result in about 50 more job cuts, he figures.
Even those in Southern Europe that are more upbeat speak of stabilization, not recovery. "We can see the portfolio of orders stabilizing, but I don’t see this boom," says Jose Goncalves, owner JPC Elasticos, SA, a Portugal-based maker of specialty elastics for use in clothing and sportswear.
He hopes to find new buyers in Germany, and is in talks with a Düsseldorf company to provide materials for that firm’s sportswear lines. "No one would ever say it’s easy and fast to get new business in Germany," Mr. Goncalves says, but once it happens "there’s a sense of reliability."
Still, Mr. Goncalves expresses a familiar frustration in Europe: "Germans need to spend more; they save too much."