La Cina supera gli Usa per utilizzo di energia – Il gigante asiatico n. 1 per consumo di energia, ridisegna i mercati petroliferi,

La Cina supera gli Usa per utilizzo di energia – Il gigante asiatico n. 1 per consumo di energia, ridisegna i mercati petroliferi, e la diplomazia

SPENCER SWARTZ e SHAI OSTER

– Dai dati IEA (Agenzia Int. Energia, “Nuova era nella storia dell’energia”), la Cina ha superato gli Usa (dal 1900 il maggior consumatore mondiale) per consumo energetico – e per emissioni di anidride carbonica ed altri gas ad effetto serra[1] (pur rimanendo gli USA la 1a potenza economica, e 1° consumatore di energia pro-capite, 5 volte quello cinese), riflesso del suo decennale slancio economico e rapido rafforzamento industriale,

o   questo ha implicazioni per la sicurezza energetica nazionale e la politica estera americane;

o   e in generale nelle relazioni geopolitiche; i gruppi petroliferi e del carbone cinesi alla ricerca di fonti energetiche sicure (vedi Sudan, abbandonato da molti gruppi occidentali), si sono entrati in Centro Asia, Africa, Sud America, Canada, e hanno conquistato piccole quote anche nel Golfo del Messico.

Consumo totale primario di energia negli USA e in Cina, in MD di tonnellate equivalenti di petrolio

o   Negli Usa Cnooc cercò di acquisire nel 2005 la californiana Unocal ($18MD l’offerta), tentativo fatto fallire da interventi politici e dalla rivale Chevron.

o   Nel complesso le posizioni conquistate dalle società cinesi sono ancora limitate a confronto di quelle dei grandi gruppi petroliferi internazionali, ma la loro espansione avviene con il sostegno di finanziamenti a basso costo dalle banche statali cinesi.

o   Mentre finora i maggiori paesi OPEC guardavano al consumo Usa stabilire la capacità di estrazione necessaria, ora essi, compresi Arabia Saudita e EAU, hanno iniziato a costruire raffinerie e depositi in Asia.

o   L’Arabia Saudita, maggiore esportatore mondiale di greggio, ne esporta di più in Cina che negli Usa.

o   i gruppi dell’energia, come General Electric, guardano sempre più alla Cina per i propri investimenti,

o   che richiederà investimenti energetici di circa $4000 MD per i prossimi 20 anni, livello raggiunto in diversi decenni di investimenti.

o   e si prevede dovrà costruire 1000 gigawatt di nuova capacità di produzione elettrica per i prossimi 15 anni, pari a tutta l’attuale capacità di produzione negli USA.

o   Nella prima fase dello sviluppo economico cinese, anni 1980 e 1990, decrebbe l’intensità di energia, dato che lo sviluppo si fondava sul manifatturiero leggero.

o   Nei primi anni 1990 la Cina è divenuta per la prima volta un’importatrice netta di petrolio; la domanda di energia è aumentata fortemente – 4 volte più velocemente del 3-4% previsto – dopo l’ingresso della Cina nel Wto, 2001.

o   Il ritmo di crescita della domanda di energia della Cina rallenterà per vari fattori: rallentamento ritmo di crescita industriale, maggiore efficienza energetica, minor bisogno di infrastrutture, rallentamento dell’urbanizzazione, delocalizzazione di industrie ad alto consumo energetico, anche per l’aumento del costo del lavoro, a seguito delle rivendicazioni di migliori condizioni di lavoro e di salario dei lavoratori cinesi. Ma l’aumento dei redditi potrebbe innescare una maggiore domanda interna di consumi … e di conseguenza maggiore domanda di energia.

– China National Petroleum, il maggior gruppo petrolifero cinese, prosegue con progetti per gas e petrolio in Iran, nonostante le sanzioni volute dagli USA contro Tehran.

o   Pechino ha rifiutato di limitare il consumo di combustibili fossili e di ridurre le emissioni … impedendo all’Amministrazione Obama di forgiare un accordo int.le sul clima …; ha invece posto come obiettivo la riduzione dell’intensità di emissioni, il che significa rendere la propria economia più efficiente dal punto di vista energetico, un aumento di competitività, non una riduzione del consumo energetico complessivo.

o   Cina, 2009, 2,252 MD di tonnellate equivalenti di petrolio (la misura di ‘equivalente di petrolio’ rappresenta tutte le forme di energia consumate, petrolio grezzo, nucleare, carbone, gas naturale, risorse rinnovabili, compreso idroelettrico …), 4% più degli USA (2,170 MD); i dati sono contestati dalla Cina, che non ne fornisce però altri.

– La fame cinese di energia ha fatto aumentare di recente i prezzi energetici, petrolio, carbone, etc..

– Il consumo totale di energia della Cina era la metà solo 10 anni fa’, da allora aumentato a ritmi di due cifre in diversi anni. (In precedenza la Cina era una grande esportatrice di petrolio e carbone)

– Il sorpasso è avvenuto 5 anni prima del previsto, causa la recessione internazionale che ha colpito maggiormente gli Usa.

– Lo sviluppo economico cinese dell’ultimo decennio non è stato determinato dalla domanda di beni di consumo ma dall’industria pesante e dalle infrastrutture.

China Tops U.S. in Energy Use – Asian Giant Emerges as No. 1 Consumer of Power, Reshaping Oil Markets, Diplomacy

By SPENCER SWARTZ And SHAI OSTER

–   China has passed the U.S. to become the world’s biggest energy consumer, according to new data from the International Energy Agency, a milestone that reflects both China’s decades-long burst of economic growth and its rapidly expanding clout as an industrial giant.

–   China’s emergence as the world’s most voracious energy consumer has wide implications for U.S. national security and foreign policy. Wall Street Journal reporter Neil King discusses.

–   China’s ascent marks "a new age in the history of energy," IEA chief economist Fatih Birol said in an interview. The country’s surging appetite has transformed global energy markets and propped up prices of oil and coal in recent years, and its continued growth stands to have long-term implications for U.S. energy security.

–   The Paris-based IEA, energy adviser to most of the world’s biggest economies, said China consumed 2.252 billion tons of oil equivalent last year, about 4% more than the U.S., which burned through 2.170 billion tons of oil equivalent. The oil-equivalent metric represents all forms of energy consumed, including crude oil, nuclear power, coal, natural gas and renewable sources such as hydropower.

China, meanwhile, disputed the IEA figures, but didn’t offer alternative data, according to Zhou Xian, spokesperson for China’s top energy agency.

–   The U.S. had been the globe’s biggest overall energy user since the early 1900s, Mr. Birol said.

–   China overtook it at breakneck pace. China’s total energy consumption was just half that of the U.S. 10 years ago, but in many of the years since, China saw annual double-digit growth rates. It had been expected to pass the U.S. about five years from now, but took the top position earlier because the global recession hit the U.S. more severely, slowing American industrial activity and energy use.

–   China’s economic rise has required enormous amounts of energy—especially since much of the past decade’s growth was fueled not by consumer demand, as in the U.S., but from energy-intense heavy industry and infrastructure building.

–   China’s growing energy demands will present new challenges to U.S. foreign policy, as well as to international efforts to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases linked to climate change. China National Petroleum Co., the country’s biggest oil company, is pushing forward with oil and gas projects in Iran, despite U.S. efforts to enforce sanctions against the Tehran government.

–   Beijing has refused to agree to cap its overall growth in its consumption of fossil fuels, or reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. That frustrated President Barack Obama’s efforts to forge an international climate agreement at a United Nations summit in Copenhagen last December.

–   China instead set a target to reduce emissions intensity—the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of gross domestic product—by 40% to 45% from 2005 levels by 2020. That meant China was agreeing to make its economy more energy efficient—boosting its competitiveness—but not to consume less energy overall.

–   China’s growth has transformed global energy markets and sustained higher prices for everything from oil to uranium and other natural resources that the country has been consuming. Once, China was a major exporter of both oil and coal. Its increasing reliance on imports has sustained higher energy prices worldwide and underpinned a natural-resource boom in Africa, the Middle East and Australia.

"There is little doubt that China’s growing consumption changes what ability we have to control our own destiny within global energy markets," said David Pumphrey, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "China can now demand a large space inside any energy-policy tent."

–   China’s rapidly expanding need for energy promises to have major geopolitical implications as it hunts for ways to satisfy its needs. Already, China’s rising imports have changed global geopolitics.

o    Chinese oil and coal companies have been looking overseas in their quest to secure energy supplies, pitching the Chinese flag in places like Sudan, which Western companies had largely abandoned under international pressure.

–   The most ambitious effort to secure overseas energy supplies was the failed 2005 attempt Cnooc Ltd. to take over California-based Unocal in an $18 billion bid, which was trumped by politics and rival Chevron. Despite a short pullback in the aftermath of that failed deal, Chinese companies have expanded overseas, buying assets in Central Asia, Africa, South America, Canada and even small stakes in the Gulf of Mexico.

–   While their overall overseas footprint is still small compared with that of big international oil companies, these companies are expanding with access to cheap credit through China’s state-owned banks.

–   Voracious energy demand also helps explain why China—which gets most of its electricity from coal, the most polluting of fossil fuels—passed the U.S. in 2007 as the world’s largest emitter of carbon-dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases.

–   In the past, being the world’s biggest consumer of fossil fuels went hand in hand with being its dominant economy. The question now is whether this will hold true in the future, as nations compete to develop new ways to produce more wealth with less energy. While China is No. 1 in consumption, the U.S. remains the world’s biggest economy.

–   The U.S. is also by far the biggest per-capita energy consumer, with the average American burning five times as much energy annually as the average Chinese citizen, said Mr. Birol.

–   The U.S. also remains the biggest oil consumer by a wide margin, going through roughly 19 million barrels a day on average. China, at about 9.2 million barrels a day, runs a distant second. But many oil analysts believe U.S. crude demand has peaked or is unlikely to grow very much in coming years, because of improved energy efficiency and more stringent vehicle fuel-efficiency regulations.

–   China’s rise is also helping shift the focus for oil producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Key OPEC states like Saudi Arabia long looked to U.S. oil consumption for guidance in adding new pumping capacity. But in recent years, OPEC states including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have built or started building refineries and storage facilities in Asia. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, now ships more to China than to the U.S.

Prior to the global economic crisis, China had been expected to become the biggest energy consumer in about five years. Economic malaise and energy-efficiency programs in the U.S. brought forward the date, Mr. Birol said.

–   The decreased "energy intensity" of the U.S. economy is a key reason energy investors, such as General Electric, have increasingly looked to China as a driver of growth. Mr. Birol said China requires total energy investments of some $4 trillion over the next 20 years to keep feeding its economy and avoid power blackouts and fuel shortages.

–   Mr. Birol, formerly an economist at OPEC, said China is expected to build some 1,000 gigawatts of new power-generation capacity over the next 15 years. That is about equal to the current total electricity-generation capacity in the U.S.—a level achieved over several decades of construction.

–   China’s energy intensity actually fell during the first phase of its economic growth in the 1980s and 1990s, which was driven by light manufacturing. But in the early 1990s, China became a net oil importer for the first time as its demand finally outpaced domestic supplies. China’s energy demand surged again after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.

–   Before China joined the WTO, most international prognosticators, including the IEA, predicted energy demand would increase at an annual rate of 3% to 4% from 2000 to 2010. Demand wound up growing four times faster than they predicted.

–   There is a chance the growth in China’s energy appetite could slow, as the pace of industrial expansion slows and energy-efficiency policies backed by the government—such as tougher fuel-efficiency standards for cars—take hold.

–   In a few years, there won’t be much infrastructure left to build. Urbanization will continue, but at a slower pace. And the heavy factory jobs that consume huge amounts of energy may start to shift away to other countries partly as China’s workers demand better conditions and higher salaries.

–   But the same force that could be moving factory jobs away—rising incomes—could also underpin even greater energy needs as richer Chinese start consuming more. The question is whether China will adopt a low-energy pathway pioneered by places like Japan and Europe or follow a high-energy life-style of big houses and big cars pioneered by the U.S.

Write to Spencer Swartz at spencer.swartz@wsj.com and Shai Oster at shai.oster@wsj.com