Merkel respinge la richiesta di Obama di spendere

●    La Merkel respinge per la seconda volta in pochi giorni le richieste internazionali, quella di prolungare le misure di stimolo fiscale a breve e quella di Obama di spendere e di affidarsi meno all’export per sostenere la ripresa globale.

o   Appoggio presso il G20 del presidente UE, Van Rompuy, e del presidente della Commissione UE, Barroso alla disciplina fiscale e alla fine degli stimoli chiesti dalla Germania.

o   Spagna e Grecia beneficerebbero della spinta tedesca ai consumi mentre attuano misure drastiche contro l’alto deficit di bilancio.

o   Merkel: non vale per la Germania la teoria dominante secondo la quale un più alto deficit di spesa promuove la crescita.

o   In Germania la riduzione del deficit statale incoraggia i tedeschi a spendere di più, anziché a risparmiare nel timore che lo Stato rimanga senza fondi per il welfare.

o   La Germania deve però attuare altre riforme strutturali, incentivare le assunzioni e rafforzare il settore servizi, troppo regolamentato e sottosviluppato rispetto a quello americano e di altre economie avanzate.

●    Rischio di isolamento per la Germania nel G20 per la richiesta di inasprimento della regolamentazione finanziaria ed altre priorità da essa poste.

o   La Cina, anch’essa dipendente dal surplus commerciale, ha allentato nel frattempo la pressione int.le capeggiata dagli USA annunciando una politica di cambio più flessibile.

o   Secondo molti economisti la Germania potrebbe incentivare la domanda privata con riduzioni fiscali e il rinvio delle misure di austerità.

o   La Merkel respinge la conclusione dettata da alcuni sondaggi secondo i quali la crisi della zona euro avrebbe consolidato in Germania la posizione degli euroscettici: si sta discutendo sul rafforzamento dell’euro, non sulla sua eliminazione.

– La crisi finanziaria della zona euro non è terminata, con i salvataggi i paesi dell’euro si sono presi un po’ di tempo per eliminare i problemi strutturali che impediscono la competitività di paesi come Grecia, etc.; chiede ai G20 un segnale dell’imminente introduzione di una regolamentazione finanziaria più rigida, contro l’impressione che vinca la resistenza delle grandi banche.

– Alla richiesta di Francia, Usa e altri ai paesi grandi esportatori, Germania, Cina e Giappone, di ri-equilibrare la domanda internazionale sostenendo il loro consumo interno Merkel risponde:

o   economia ed occupazione della Germania, quarta potenza economica mondiale, sono in crescita; essa non deve perciò riconsiderare la propria dipendenza dal motore del suo settore industriale e il suo largo surplus commerciale;

o   «Il successo del suo export riflette l’alta competitività e la forza innovativa delle sue imprese; a nessuno servirebbe ridurre artificialmente la competitività della Germania».

o   Le misure di stimolo fiscale della Germania nel 2010 sono oltre il 2% del PIL, maggiori di molti altri paesi, dove finiranno prima; data la previsione di crescita del 2%per il 2010 in Germania, questo stimolo verrà gradualmente sospeso dal 2011.

o   Non condivido l’accusa alla UE, colpevole, secondo la segretaria alla Difesa americana, di aver allontanato la Turchia dall’Occidente;

o   Sono vari i motivi per cui la Turchia vuole avere un suo ruolo nel conflitto mediorientale; a UE e USA non fa piacere che la Turchia non abbia sostenuto le sanzioni ONU contro l’Iran.

o   dalle cifre risulta chiaro che la Germania ha ridotto molto le relazioni economiche con l’Iran, quelle nuove in particolare; ha accettato tutte le sanzioni ed è pronta a nuove.

German chancellor rebuffs pressure to boost domestic demand, not exports; warns Europe’s crisis is far from over

By MARCUS WALKER And MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG

–   BERLIN—Chancellor Angela Merkel roundly rebuffed U.S. President Barack Obama’s call for Germans to aid the global recovery by spending more and relying less on exports, even as she warned that Europe’s own financial crisis is far from over.

–   In an interview with The Wall Street Journal in her Berlin chancellery, an unapologetic Ms. Merkel said the nations that share the beleaguered euro have merely bought some time to fix the flaws in their monetary union. She called on the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations meeting in Toronto this weekend to send a signal that tougher financial-market regulation is on its way to dispel the impression that momentum is fading amid resistance by big banks.

–   She took aim at an idea voiced by France, the U.S. and others that Germany should help global producers by spurring its persistently weak consumer demand and ending its dependence on unsustainable spending elsewhere. The latest call came in a letter last Friday from Mr. Obama to the G-20, in which he asked big exporters—Germany, China and Japan—to rebalance global demand by boosting consumer spending.

–   Ms. Merkel countered that Germany’s growth and employment are rising—and therefore the world’s fourth-largest economy has no reason to rethink its dependence on its powerhouse industrial sector and large trade surplus.

o    "German export successes reflect the high competitiveness and innovation strength of our companies," she said. "Artificially reducing Germany’s competitiveness would be of no use to anyone."

The U.S. reiterated its stance Wednesday. "It is important for European growth in particular, and the world more generally, that advanced surplus economies in Europe strengthen the contribution of internal demand to growth," a senior administration official said.

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–   Ms. Merkel’s defense of Germany’s export-heavy model marks Berlin’s second rebuff to international demands in recent days. Early this week, Ms. Merkel rejected calls for Germany to prolong fiscal-stimulus measures in the short term.

–   Germany’s position threatens to isolate it within the G-20, likely making it difficult for it to win support for tougher financial-market regulation and its other priorities.

–   The country is at the center of attention now that China, whose growth also depends largely on trade surpluses, has defused some of the U.S.-led pressure to rebalance its economy by announcing a more flexible exchange-rate policy.

A report published Wednesday as a "primer" for G-20 governments by the Center for Economic Policy Research, a European network of leading economists, accused Germany of doing less than China to redress global imbalances, which the report called a threat to global economic stability.

Ms. Merkel denied Germany is under pressure to change, predicting "a very relaxed discussion about this topic in Toronto."

–   She suggested that the prevailing economic theory on stimulus—that increased deficit spending promotes growth— doesn’t apply in Germany.

–   Continuing to run big deficits could backfire here, she said, because of Germans’ angst over their aging society and rising public debt. Fear that the German welfare state could run out of money leads individuals to save their income as a precaution, she said. If Germany cuts its budget deficit instead, "then the citizen is more willing to spend money," she said, "because he knows that he can count on the pension, health and elderly-care systems."

–   However, acknowledging some of the criticism, the chancellor said Germany still needs more "structural reforms," especially to "improve the incentives to take up work and to strengthen the services sector." Many economists say German service industries are overregulated and underdeveloped compared with those in the U.S. and other advanced economies.

–   Berlin’s emphasis on fiscal discipline received support from top European Union[e] officials Wednesday in a letter to the G-20 that said the "global recovery is progressing better than anticipated," so that the time for stimulus is ending. Leading economies should agree to consolidate budgets "starting at the latest in 2011," EU President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President José Manuel Barroso wrote in the letter.

–   Germany’s anemic consumer spending, which could be further weakened as budget cuts kick in starting in 2011, is causing frustration in crisis-hit EU countries such as Spain and Greece, which need a boost from Germany as they take drastic measures to repair their public finances.

Many economists believe Berlin could stoke private demand by putting more money in Germans’ pockets through measures such as tax cuts and by delaying planned austerity measures.

–   In the interview, Ms. Merkel said Germany has made "an important contribution to overcoming the global economic crisis in the last two years." She pointed to Germany’s continuing fiscal-stimulus measures, which come to over 2% of gross domestic product in 2010, according to the International Monetary Fund.

–   "That’s more than in many other countries," where stimulus policies are ending earlier, she said. But with Germany’s economy expected to grow by close to 2% this year, she said the time has come to remove the stimulus "step by step" from 2011.

Ms. Merkel, a 55-year-old former physicist who grew up in Communist East Germany, has been chancellor since 2005 and won a decisive re-election victory last year as head of a conservative-led coalition. Since then, however, her own and her government’s popularity have fallen amid internal squabbling between her cabinet allies.

–   Many German voters are also angry that Ms. Merkel agreed to the €110 billion ($135 billion) EU-IMF bailout of highly indebted Greece, and to the creation of a €750 billion rescue facility for other euro-zone countries that might hit financial trouble. Opinion polls suggest the euro-zone crisis has hardened Germans’ negative view of the euro.

–   Ms. Merkel said her compatriots aren’t turning euro-skeptic. "Germans know the value of all things European," she said. "All of the current discussion about the euro is taking place on the basis that we want to make the euro stronger, not to call it fundamentally into question."

Germans also complain frequently about the costs of German unification, but that doesn’t mean that want to reverse it, Ms. Merkel pointed out.

–   However, Ms. Merkel warned that the euro zone hasn’t ended the financial crisis that gripped Greece this spring and threatened to spread to other countries such as Spain and Portugal.

"We have calmed down the situation through the rescue facility," she said, adding: "We now have the possibility, and have won time, to remove structural weaknesses in the euro zone and its framework of rules."

She rejected the criticism, voiced in Paris, Brussels and other EU capitals, that Germany delayed the rescue of Greece for too long, allowing the crisis to escalate.

"It was right that we didn’t go down the supposedly easy route of supporting Greece financially without clear conditions, without reflecting on what the underlying causes of this crisis are," she said. "Instead we are now tackling the causes, namely the lack of competitiveness" in Greece and other economies, she said.

‘Germany knows the value of all things European. All of the current discussion about the euro is taking place on the basis that we want to make the euro stronger, not to call it fundamentally into question.’

   German Chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to face critical questions at this weekend’s G-20 summit in Toronto. The U.S. and others want Germany to contribute more to rebalancing the world economy, by boosting German domestic demand and reducing the country’s reliance on trade surpluses. But the chancellor argues that Germany has provided more fiscal stimulus than is often recognized, and that high exports simply reflect German companies’ strengths. Amid all the talk about supporting the economic recovery, Ms. Merkel doesn’t want the G-20 to forget about beefing up financial-sector regulation, a task she says is only half done. She spoke with Wall Street Journal reporters Marcus Walker and Matthew Karnitschnig in the Berlin chancellery before leaving for Canada.

The Wall Street Journal: Is the sum of G-20 initiatives on financial regulation enough to tame the financial markets?

Angela Merkel: On financial regulation we undertook to make sure that no actor, no financial center and no product would go unregulated. We have made progress on this road, but not yet enough.

Ms. Merkel: No. That will become clear in the end, when the overall burden of sharpened capital requirements, bank levies and stricter overall regulation stands firm. Right now we are roughly in the middle of the process of implementing this.

WSJ: Why are you pushing for a financial transactions tax that has little chance of being agreed on by the G-20?

Ms. Merkel: In 2007 people giggled at us because we put hedge-fund regulation at the center of the agenda at the G-8 summit in Heiligendamm. Now it’s 2010 and everyone has been working on this. Sometimes you have to take up ambitious-seeming projects. The same goes today for a financial transaction tax. The arguments for it will tell in the foreseeable future.

WSJ: The EU has decided on publishing stress tests. Do you think German banks need more capital?

Ms. Merkel: Germany, like the whole of the EU, is ready to make the results of stress tests public, because given the current uncertainty in financial markets, more transparency can restore trust. But building trust will only work if every country also shows how it will handle the results, for example by recapitalizing its banks if necessary.

WSJ: Many German banks are resisting publishing the results.

Ms. Merkel: The important thing is: We want to achieve transparency, and the EU has agreed to find ways to do it.

WSJ: China has announced a reform of its exchange-rate policy. Is Germany now under growing pressure to contribute to a reduction of global economic imbalances?

Ms. Merkel: Germany has contributed a lot to overcoming the global financial and economic crisis in the last couple of years. The IMF acknowledges this by estimating the volume of German stimulus measures in 2010 at over 2% of our GDP. That’s more than in many other countries.

As previously agreed in the G-20, and given the improving economy, we are taking away these stimulus measures step by step, starting from next year.

Achieving solid public finances is an important goal. Confidence in stable money is particularly important in Germany.

Because if there is trust in the future of state provision [of welfare services], then the citizen is more prepared to spend money, because he knows that he can count on the insurance systems for pensions, health care and elderly care.

WSJ: Germany is being criticized in France and the U.S. for its export model.

Ms. Merkel: We will have a very relaxed discussion about this topic in Toronto.

Ms. Merkel: No. German export successes reflect the high competitiveness and innovation strength of our companies. Artificially reducing Germany’s competitiveness would be of no use to anyone. What we need are structural reforms for more growth and employment, especially improving the incentives to take up work, and we must strengthen the services sector.

Ms. Merkel: By creating the rescue facility we have calmed down the situation. Now we have the possibility and have bought time to remove structural weaknesses in the euro zone and its framework of rules. This means firstly to work hard on strengthening the stability and growth pact, and secondly make a success of the EU’s growth strategy.

In the Greek case it was absolutely right that we didn’t go down the supposedly easy route of supporting Greece financially without clear conditions, without reflecting on what the underlying causes of this crisis are. Instead we are now tackling the causes, namely the lack of competitiveness.

WSJ: Why do the Germans view the euro so critically?

Ms. Merkel: They don’t. Germany knows the value of all things European. All of the current discussion about the euro is taking place on the basis that we want to make the euro stronger, not to call it fundamentally into question.

–   WSJ: What do you say to the U.S. defense secretary’s claim that the EU is to blame for Turkey turning its back on the West?

–   Ms. Merkel: I don’t share this view, because there are many reasons why Turkey chooses to play a certain role in the Middle East conflict. Both in the EU and the U.S., we regretted that Turkey didn’t support the U.N. sanctions against Iran.

WSJ: Germany is often criticized for its active trade relations with Iran.

–   Ms. Merkel: Anyone who looks closely at the numbers knows that we have greatly reduced especially new business dealings. We adhere to all sanctions. We are also prepared to accept further sanctions. So I think Germany is pursuing a sensible path.