Il nuovo governo giapponese cerca di ridefinire l’alleanza con gli USA
● Il governo del nuovo primo ministro giapponese, Yukio Hatoyama (Partito Democratico, DPJ), vuole per il Giappone un ruolo più assertivo in Asia e a livello internazionale;
o rivendica a tal fine un’alleanza più alla pari con gli USA, e un ruolo più attivo per il Giappone.
– Il DPJ comprende diverse fazioni dell’ex Partito Socialista, tradizionalmente contrarie al trattato di sicurezza con gli USA e alle basi americane in Giappone.
– La presidente del Partito socialdemocratico (PSD), che da parte del governo di coalizione di Hatoyama, ha addirittura chiesto la rimozione delle basi americane da Okinawa.
● Le relazioni strategiche alla base del Trattato di sicurezza USA-Giappone del 1951 sono state modificate dal crollo dell’URSS (1991) e dall’ascesa economica della Cina.
o L’accordo USA-Giappone del 1951 si poneva nel quadro della Guerra Fredda: protezione militare USA contro URSS e Cina, appoggio giapponese incondizionato alla politica estera americana.
– Commento del Wall Street Journal sulla volontà di Hatoyama di distanziarsi maggiormente dagli USA: la diplomazia non può da sola difendere il Giappone dall’ascesa militare di Cina e Nord Corea.
– Il Financial Times: il vertice Asean e la visita in Asia di Obama è una battaglia per l’influenza tra USA, Cina e Giappone; tocca agli USA prendere l’iniziativa prima che si realizzi una comunità regionale asiatica.
– Su pressione dell’opposizione popolare contraria all’occupazione di Afghanistan ed Irak a guida americana, in campagna elettorale il DPJ si è impegnato a
o sospendere la missione di rifornimenti navali giapponesi all’occupazione a guida americana in Afghanistan,
o e a rinegoziare l’accordo del 2006 di ristrutturazione delle basi USA in Giappone;
o posizioni che il DPJ ha ammorbidito già prima che la campagna terminasse con altre proposte di appoggio all’occupazione americana in Afghanistan, compresi aiuti per $5MD in 5 anni, proposte mai portate ad attuazione. Sulle basi militari il ministro Difesa USA, Gates, ha escluso qualsiasi rinegoziazione, e sollecitato Tokyo ad accettare.
– In caso marcia indietro su appoggio logistico per l’Afghanistan e basi militari americane, Hatoyama rischia di perdere consenso e di aprire divisioni all’interno dei Democratici e con gli alleati.
● Hatoyama si propone di migliorare le relazioni con Cina e Sud Corea;
o non appena formato il governo, il DPJ ha ventilato l’idea di una Comunità dell’Asia Orientale, su facsimile UE, e con propria valuta, un tentativo di bilanciamento tra i vari interessi strategici di Tokyo.
o Il progetto è stato avanzato dal ministro Esteri, Katsuya Okada, durante una visita dello scorso settembre a Pechino, e dal primo ministro stesso al vertice ASEAN di ottobre in Tailandia,
o progetto irto di difficoltà: – qualsiasi blocco senza gli USA creerà tensioni tra Tokyo e Washington; – nel caso riuscisse a nascere, persisterebbe la rivalità con la Cina sulla sua direzione.
– Hatoyama non ha preso una posizione ben definita sulla questione del’inclusione degli USA nella Comunità Asia-Pacifico per il 2020,
o come riproposto dall’Australia nell’incontro seguito all’ASEAN, con la partecipazione di Giappone, Cina, Sud Corea, India, Nuova Zelanda.
o Il Giappone aveva in precedenza appoggiato, diversamente dalla Cina, l’espansione dei vertici Asean+3 (comprendenti Cina, Giappone e Sud Corea), a tre partner strategici degli USA, Australia, India e Nuova Zelanda.
o La Cina ha accettato con cautela le proposte di Hatoyama, sottolineando che il centro del piano doveva essere l’ASEAN+3.
– A seguito dei due decenni di stagnazione, della rapida crescita cinese ed ora della crisi internazionale, il Giappone teme la preponderanza economica della Cina; secondo alcuni analisti il PIL della Cina supererà quello giapponese per il 2010 o 2011;
● nel 2005 il Giappone aveva 13 gruppi economici tra i primi 50 asiatici; oggi ne conta solo 4, mentre la Cina ne ha 16, 3 Hongkong e 5 Taiwan (Forbes, 2009);
● al contempo, una maggiore integrazione dei paesi asiatici, Cina compresa, è vista dal Giappone come mezzo per risolvere i propri problemi economici:
o la Cina è il suo maggior partner commerciale e fonte di manodopera a basso costo;
o nello scorso maggio Giappone, Cina e Sud Corea hanno concordato un’iniziativa da $120MD per i paesi del S-E Asia;
o Cina e Giappone stanno negoziando accordi di libero scambio con l’ASEAN, che pone il 2015 come termine per il proprio blocco di libero scambio.
o Hatoyama si è impegnato a non rendere visita al sacrario di Yasukuni, simbolo dl militarismo giapponese, l’omaggio al quale da parte dell’ex primo ministro Koizumi scatenò le proteste di Cina e Corea.
o Il DPJ ha vinto le elezioni ad agosto 2009, estromettendo dal governo i liberal-democratici (LPD), che governavano da oltre mezzo secolo, d eccezione di un breve intervallo nel 1993-94.
o Il crollo dell’URSS nel 1991, ha posto il Giappone di fronte a fondamentali scelte economiche e strategiche:
§ gli USA hanno preteso dal Giappone il finanziamento di gran pare della guerra del Golfo 1990-1991; da allora i vari governo hanno cercato di giocare un ruolo internazionale più assertivo e di liberare le proprie forze armate dai limiti previsti dalla Costituzione.
§ Koizumi appoggiò pienamente la guerra “al terrorismo” di Bush, con un supporto logistico navale per l’Afghanistan e con truppe per l’Irak; ha assunto nel contempo un atteggiamento più aggressivo nel N-E Asia, alimentando tensioni e dispute territoriali con Cina e Sud Corea.
Gli USA fanno pressione sul Giappone per il pacchetto militare – Washington preoccupata dal tentativo dei nuovi leader di ridefinire l’alleanza
John Pomfret e Blaine Harden
● Gli USA si mostrano preoccupati per le iniziative del Giappone verso una ridefinizione della sua alleanza e del proprio posto in Asia;
o i problemi con il più stretto alleato in Asia vanno ad aggiungersi alle sfide in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Irak, Iran, Nord Corea e Cina.
● Washington ha avvertito Tokyo sulle gravi conseguenze in caso venga meno al piano di riallineamento militare formulato per trattare con una Cina in ascesa,
o e prevedeva il rafforzamento militare di Guam, come contrappeso al rafforzamento navale di Pechino, e il miglioramento delle capacità di difesa missilistiche contro quelle di Cina e Nord Corea.
o Il DPJ è salito al potere impegnandosi per una maggiore assertività verso gli USA, e si è mostrato meno disposto a rispondere militarmente all’ascesa cinese.
o In campagna elettorale Hatoyama ha parlato di riesaminare accordi “segreti” tra LPD e USA sullo stoccaggio o trasferimento di armi nucleari in Giappone;
o ha avanzato l’idea di una Comunità dell’Asia Orientale, con la Cina al centro; Singapore è contraria all’esclusione degli USA.
– Alcuni funzionari americani hanno ridimensionato tali proposte come frutto di retorica elettorale, ma rimane per gli USA la preoccupazione che il DPJ sia impegnato in un cambiamento di politica estera.
– Il DPJ, il maggior partito della nuova coalizione di governo giapponese, ha annunciato di recente l’intenzione del Giappone di non rinnovare alla sua scadenza il prossimo gennaio la missione nell’Oceano Indiano di rifornimento delle navi da guerra che appoggiano la coalizione militare a guida americana in Afghanistan;
– si sono anche impegnati a rinegoziare il pacchetto militare da $26MD – concordato nel 2006, dopo oltre 10 anni di negoziati – riguardante lo spostamento di una base militare americana in Giappone, e lo spostamento di 8000 marines dal Giappone a Guam.
– Cambiata anche l’atmosfera delle relazioni tra i due paesi, i giapponesi ora contraddicono pubblicamente i funzionari Usa.
Per decenni l’alleanza con gli USA è stata una pietra miliare della politica giapponese; il partito al governo, LDP ha demandato diverse decisioni di politica estera agli USA.
World Socialist Web Site
Published by the International Committee of the Fourth International (ICFI)
– In the lead-up to US President Barack Obama’s first visit to Japan on November 12-13, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has signalled that his government is seeking to readjust the country’s longstanding alliance with the US. He told the Diet or parliament last week that the partnership should be more equal, with Japan able to “actively propose roles and concrete actions” for the alliance to perform.
– Hatoyama and his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won office in national elections in August, ousting the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which had held power for more than half a century with only a short break in 1993-94. Responding to popular opposition, the Democrats campaigned for an end to Japan’s naval refuelling mission in support of the US-led occupation of Afghanistan and the renegotiation of an agreement to move US bases in Japan.
– More broadly, however, the Democratic Party is seeking to reposition Japan to play a more assertive role in Asian and international politics.
o The US-Japan Security Treaty signed in 1951 was a Cold War pact, in which the US provided military protection from the former Soviet and China in return for Tokyo’s unswerving support for Washington’s foreign policy. The collapse of the Soviet in 1991 and the economic rise of China have dramatically altered the strategic equation.
– In the course of the election campaign, Hatoyama, while reaffirming the alliance with the US, indicated that his government would seek better relations with China and South Korea. Since taking office, the Democrats have floated the idea of an East Asian community, loosely modelled on the European and eventually with its own currency.
– The idea was raised by Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada during a visit to Beijing in September and again by Hatoyama at the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Thailand on October 24-25.
– To improve relations with China and South Korea, Hatoyama is attempting to defuse the issue of the Yasukuni war shrine. Visits by former Prime Minister Juichiro Koizumi to this symbol of Japanese militarism provoked sharp protests by China and South Korea. Hatoyama has pledged not to visit the Yasukuni shrine and also called for the establishment of an alternative, secular national war memorial to the Japanese war dead.
– However, Japan’s proposal for an East Asian community is fraught with difficulties. Any attempt to form a bloc without the US will create tensions between Tokyo and Washington. Moreover, even if a grouping is formed, rivalry over who will play the leading role—Japan or China—will continue.
– These unresolved tensions were just below the surface at the ASEAN summit, which was followed by a meeting that included Japan, China and South Korea, as well as Australia, India and New Zealand.
– Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd reiterated his proposal for an Asian Pacific community by 2020—that would include the US. From Canberra’s standpoint, such a move is aimed at easing tensions between Australia’s largest economic partner—China—and its longstanding strategic ally—the US.
– Hatoyama, however, was deliberately vague about any US involvement, not ruling it out so as not to alienate Washington, but not explicitly including it either.
– In opposition to China, Japan previously backed the expansion of the ASEAN+3 meetings, which involve China, Japan and South Korea, to include three American strategic partners—Australia, New Zealand and India. There is no doubt that Hatoyama views his plan as a vehicle for Japan to play a more prominent role in Asia.
– China has cautiously endorsed Hatoyama’s proposal, but emphasised the ASEAN+3 should be the core of any such plan. Indicating the concerns in Chinese ruling circles, Wu Huaizhong, a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences academic, wrote in the Global Times in September that Tokyo wanted a “Japan-led order in Asia” in competition with China. Wu commented that dragging “too many countries into it is not practical” and called on Tokyo to drop the “zero sum” mentality over whether Japan or China would be the dominant Asian power.
– The collapse of the former Soviet in 1991 posed new economic and strategic dilemmas for Japanese capitalism that were sharply underscored by Washington’s insistence that Tokyo foot a large part of the bill for the Gulf War in 1990-91. Since then, successive Japanese governments have attempted to play a more assertive role internationally and free the military from the constraints of the country’s so-called pacifist constitution.
– Following the September 11 attacks on the US, Prime Minister Koizumi fully backed the Bush administration’s “war on terror”, sent a naval refuelling mission to support the US takeover of Afghanistan and contributed Japanese troops to the occupation of Iraq. At the same time, Koizumi adopted a more aggressive stance in North East Asia, fuelling tensions and border disputes with China and South Korea.
– An overriding fear in Tokyo is that China’s rapid economic rise is overshadowing Japan, which has stagnated for two decades. The global recession has only compounded the economic problems facing Japan. Some analysts predict that by 2010 or 2011 China will overtake Japan as the world’s second largest economy—a position that Japan has held for more than 40 years. The relative decline of Japanese capitalism is also expressed in the Forbes’ 2009 list of top 50 Asian corporations. Japan had 13 in 2005 but now has just 4. In the latest list, China has 16, along with 3 from Hong Kong and 5 from Taiwan.
– At the same time, Japan views the closer integration of Asia, including China, as a means of solving its economic woes. China is now Japan’s largest trading partner and the source of cheap labour for Japanese corporations.
– Japan came together with China and South Korea in May to organise a $US120 billion currency swap initiative for countries in South East Asia. Both Japan and China are in the process of negotiating free trade agreements with ASEAN, which has set 2015 as the deadline for its own free trade bloc.
– Hatoyama’s proposal for an East Asian community is thus an attempt to balance between various competing strategic interests and concerns in Tokyo. He is trying to mend relations with China and South Korea and adopt a more independent stance in relation to the Washington, while still maintaining the US alliance. Those contradictions are compounded by widespread opposition in Japan to the US-led occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq.
– The Obama administration, which has made “reengagement” in Asia a priority, is unlikely to react positively to Hatoyama’s initiatives. The Wall Street Journal last week underscored Japan’s continuing strategic dependence on the US. Referring to Hatoyama’s campaign pledge “to put more distance between Japan and the US”, the article bluntly pointed to North Korea’s nuclear program and China’s growing military might, commenting: “Does he think diplomacy alone can keep Japan safe?”
– In a similar vein, the Financial Times noted that the ASEAN summit and Obama’s visit to Asia represent “a battle for influence” between US, China and Japan. “The onus is on Washington to act before the idea of a regional community without the US becomes established in Asia,” it stated. In Tokyo, Obama is likely to pressure Hatoyama to continue to closely follow US foreign policy, warning that without Washington, Tokyo is not in a strong position to counter China’s rising influence.
– While the broader strategic discussion will be confined to closed-door meetings, two specific issues remain unresolved and may flare up publicly. In the course of the election, the Democrats pledged to end Japan’s naval refuelling mission. However, even before the election was over, the DPJ was backtracking—pledging other forms of support for the US-led occupation of Afghanistan. While various proposals have been floated—including a $5 billion aid package over five years—nothing has been finalised.
– The Democrats have also called for the revision of a 2006 plan to restructure US military bases on Okinawa, particularly the relocation of the US Marine air base at Futemma. The Pentagon wants to move the base from its current urban location to a coastal area by 2014 and move some of the US Marines to Guam. US Defence Secretary Robert Gates, who visited Japan last month, again ruled out any renegotiation and urged Tokyo to agree before Obama arrived.
– For Hatoyama to back down on either issue would result not only in a loss of support, but open up divisions in the Democrats and with their allies. The Democratic Party includes several former Socialist Party factions that have traditionally opposed the US-Japan Security Treaty and US bases in Japan. Consumer affairs minister Mizuho Fukushima, who is chairwoman of the Social Democratic Party, which is part of the ruling coalition, has called for the US bases to be removed from Okinawa altogether.
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By John Pomfret and Blaine Harden
● Worried about a new direction in Japan’s foreign policy, the Obama administration warned the Tokyo government Wednesday of serious consequences if it reneges on a military realignment plan formulated to deal with a rising China.
– The comments from Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates underscored increasing concern among U.S. officials as Japan moves to redefine its alliance with the United States and its place in Asia. In August, the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won an overwhelming victory in elections, ending more than 50 years of one-party rule.
– For a U.S. administration burdened with challenges in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, North Korea and China, troubles with its closest ally in Asia constitute a new complication.
A senior State Department official said the United States had "grown comfortable" thinking about Japan as a constant in U.S. relations in Asia. It no longer is, he said, adding that "the hardest thing right now is not China, it’s Japan."
– The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said the new ruling party lacks experience in government and came to power wanting politicians to be in charge, not the bureaucrats who traditionally ran the country from behind the scenes. Added to that is a deep malaise in a society that has been politically and economically adrift for two decades.
– In the past week, officials from the DPJ have announced that Japan would withdraw from an eight-year-old mission in the Indian Ocean to refuel warships supporting U.S.-led coalition forces in Afghanistan.
– They have also pledged to reopen negotiations over a $26 billion military package that involves relocating a U.S. Marine Corps helicopter base in Japan and moving 8,000 U.S. Marines from Japan to Guam. After more than a decade of talks, the United States and Japan agreed on the deal in 2006.
– The atmospherics of the relationship have also morphed, with Japanese politicians now publicly contradicting U.S. officials.
U.S. discomfort was on display Wednesday in Tokyo as Gates pressured the government, after meetings with Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, to keep its commitment to the military agreement.
– "It is time to move on," Gates said, warning that if Japan pulls apart the troop "realignment road map," it would be "immensely complicated and counterproductive."
In a relationship in which protocol can be imbued with significance, Gates let his schedule do the talking, declining invitations to dine with Defense Ministry officials and to attend a welcome ceremony at the ministry.
Hatoyama said Gates’s presence in Japan "doesn’t mean we have to decide everything."
– For decades, the alliance with the United States was a cornerstone of Japanese policy, but it was also a crutch. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) outsourced many foreign policy decisions to Washington.
– The base realignment plan, for example, was worked out as a way to confront China’s expanding military by building up Guam as a counterweight to Beijing’s growing navy and by improving missile defense capabilities to offset China and North Korea’s increasingly formidable rocket forces.
– The DPJ rode to power pledging to be more assertive in its relations with the United States and has seemed less committed to a robust military response to China’s rise.
– On the campaign trail, Hatoyama vowed to reexamine what he called "secret" agreements between the LDP and the United States over the storage or transshipment of nuclear weapons in Japan — a sensitive topic in the only country that has endured nuclear attacks.
– He also pushed the idea of an East Asian Community, a sort of Asian version of the European Union, with China at its core.
– Soon after the election, U.S. officials dismissed concerns that change was afoot, saying campaign rhetoric was to blame. Although most of those officials still say the alliance is strong, there is worry the DPJ is committed to transforming Japan’s foreign policy — but exactly how is unclear.
– DPJ politicians have accused U.S. officials of not taking them seriously. Said Tadashi Inuzuka, a DPJ member of the upper house of Japan’s parliament, the Diet: "They should realize that we are the governing party now."
Kent Calder, the director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at Johns Hopkins University and a longtime U.S. diplomat in Japan, said that if Hatoyama succeeds in delaying a decision on the military package until next year, U.S. officials fear it could unravel.
– Other Asian nations have privately reacted with alarm to Hatoyama’s call for the creation of the East Asian Community because they worry that the United States would be shut out.
"I think the U.S. has to be part of the Asia-Pacific and the overall architecture of cooperation within the Asia-Pacific," Singapore’s prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, said on a trip to Japan this month.
– The theatrics of Japan’s relationship with Washington are new as well. Take, for instance, the dust-up last month between Japan’s ambassador to the United States, Ichiro Fujisaki, and Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell.
– On Sept. 9, Morrell demanded that Japan continue its refueling operation in the Indian Ocean. The next day, Fujisaki responded that such a decision was "up to Japan" and then said that Japan and the United States were "not on such terms where we talk through spokespeople." The Hatoyama government has said that it will not extend the refueling mission when it expires in January.
Then, at a seminar in Washington on Oct. 14, Kuniko Tanioka, a DPJ member in the upper house, went head-to-head with Kevin Maher, director of the State Department’s Office of Japan Affairs, over the Futenma Air Station deal. Maher said the deal concerning the Marine Corps base had been completed. Tanioka said the negotiations lacked transparency.
Maher noted that a senior DPJ official had agreed that the deal must go through, at which point Tanioka snapped back, "I’m smarter than he is."
"I have never seen this in 30 years," Calder said. "I haven’t heard Japanese talking back to American diplomats that often, especially not publicly. The Americans usually say, ‘We have a deal,’ and the Japanese respond, ‘Ah soo desu ka,’ — we have a deal — and it’s over. This is new."