I dirigenti cinesi di fronte a nere prospettive economiche
– Il rimo ministro cinese ha presentato un quadro economico negativo, con il continuo calo della domanda sui mercati int.li, e la rinascita del protezionismo.
● Il deficit del bilancio statale cinese previsto per quest’anno a 950 MD di yuan ($140 MD), x8 rispetto al 2008, il maggiore dal 1949, pari a quasi il 3% del PIL, visto come limite critico per la stabilità finanziaria.
● Le finanze cinesi non sono forti come comunemente si pensa, date le sue riserve finanziarie estere a quasi $2mila MD, per la maggior parte sono investiti negli USA in Buoni del Tesoro americano etc. per impedire la valorizzazione della valuta sul $ e mantenere competitivo l’export cinese.
o Con il calo dell’export e il crollo del mercato immobiliare, calano gli introiti fiscali cinesi.
● La previsione del primo ministro Wen di una crescita per il 2009 dell’8% che creerebbe 9 milioni di posti di lavoro urbani, basta solo ad assorbire i 7-8 mn. di laureati alla ricerca di occupazione, senza i milioni di disoccupati tra i lavoratori migranti dalle campagne e quelli urbani.
o L’FMI ha previsto per il 2009 per la Cina un +6,7%, la metà del 13% del 2007; +5-6% secondo altri analisti.
● Il presidente della Conferenza politica consultativa del Popolo cinese: «incoraggiamo i dipendenti del privato di assumersi la loro parte di responsabilità sociali e di lavorare sodo per far sì che non ci siano licenziamenti, o tagli salariali … per creare rapporti di lavoro armoniosi».
o Mentre sono già rimasti disoccupati oltre 20 milioni di lavoratori migranti, e sono colpite le PME, soprattutto legate all’export; da ottobre 2008 avrebbero chiuso nel Guandong circa 20mila PME, con la perdita di 2mn. di posti di lavoro.
o Molto colpite le società di Hong Kong nel delta del Fiume delle Perle, in alcune città manifatturiere ne funzionerebbero solo il 20-30%; nella regione circa il 40% dei 65mila stabilimenti lavorerebbero a circa il 50% della loro capacità;
o 1/5 avrebbe perso il 30% degli ordini; il 30% ne avrebbe perso il 10%.
o Hanno operato tagli occupazionali anche le grandi multinazionali, Intel sta tagliano 2000 posti a Shanghai e si trasferisce nel Sichuan dove i salari sono inferiori;
o Panasonic Electronic Devices intende procedere a tagli, nel quadro di una riduzione del gruppo giapponese del 5%.
o Le 500 maggiori multinazionali operanti in Cina hanno ridotto del 40% le opportunità di lavoro per i laureati cinesi (da dichiarazioni dei rettori delle 5 maggiori università cinesi).
o Il governo fornisce solo 1/3 del pacchetto di aiuti previsti, pari a $161 MD su due anni, il resto è a carico delle banche statali, delle imprese e dei governi locali.
o Si valuta che 1/3 del nuovo prestito bancario sia andato nel mercato azionario invece che a sostegno della capacità produttiva, causa la scarsa fiducia nelle prospettive economiche.
o Erogati finora solo 30MD di yuan dei 100 previsti per lo scorso trimestre; avanzate alcune limitate proposte di welfare (Legge sulla previdenza sociale, che promette accesso per tutti alla sanità di base, assicurazione infortuni e pensioni) mirata anche a favorire la crescita della spesa interna. I margini di spesa sono però limitati …
o A novembre bloccato il proposto aumento dei salari minimi; sospesa di fatto da molti governi locali una legge sui contratti di lavoro del 2008 che fornisce una tutela legale ai lavoratori.
– Annunciato da Wen, in seguito alle proteste, un aumento dall’1 al 4% del pacchetto di stimoli per i programmi sociali, +24% sulla educazione, +38% sulla sanità, e +171% per gli affitti popolari, ma gran parte dell’aumento deve essere erogato dai governi locali, già in difficoltà per il calo degli introiti.
– Promessi 850mD di yuan per i prossimi tre anni per la sanità per i lavoratori, ma solo il 6,9% previsto per il bilancio di quest’anno …
● Contraddizione tra il bisogno di aumentare la spesa per i consumi per fermare il rallentamento dell’economia e il rischio che aumenti salariali sfavoriscano la competizione internazionale della Cina.
– Pechino non ha alcuna incertezza solo sulla spesa per le forze di sicurezza, +14,9%, a $70,2 MD. (cfr. scheda specifica)
che deve promuovere le ambizioni di potenza della Cina, ma anche rafforzare l’apparato statale repressivo contro le proteste sociali che scoppieranno in risposta del peggioramento del tenore di vita.
Chinese leaders face bleak economic prospects
Two national gatherings that began in Beijing last week—the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the National People’s Congress (NPC)—are another indication that China is facing a deepening economic slowdown.
Desperate for any good news, share markets in Asia, Europe and North America rose last week on speculation that the Chinese leadership was about to double its 4 trillion yuan ($US585) stimulus package. Dow Jones Newswires reported: "Traders bet Beijing will step up its attempt to stimulate China’s economy, buying shares of heavy-equipment, metals and oil companies."
In his opening report to the NPC on March 5, however, Premier Wen Jiabao made no mention of any new spending measures. Stock markets promptly slumped again. While the existing stimulus package has clearly not halted declining economic growth, Beijing is clearly worried about the financial dangers of more government spending.
– The budget deficit is already forecast to rise to 950 billion yuan ($US140 billion) this year—more than eight times higher than in 2008 and the largest since the regime was established in 1949. The deficit is equivalent to nearly 3 percent of GDP, which is seen in China as the critical red line for financial instability.
– With nearly $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves, China is widely regarded as being in a strong financial position. However, most of these reserves are invested in US treasury bonds and other assets in order to prevent the yuan rising against the US dollar and to keep Chinese exports competitive. Tax revenues are declining as export orders fall and the real estate market slumps. China’s finances are not as solid as is commonly believed.
– Premier Wen pledged to achieve 8 percent growth this year—the minimum level considered necessary to generate enough jobs to prevent social unrest. But his forecast of 9 million new urban jobs in 2009 is barely enough to absorb an estimated 7-8 million college graduates looking for work, let alone the millions of rural migrants and urban workers wanting a job.
– Wen painted a gloomy picture: "Demand continues to shrink on international markets; the trend toward global deflation is obvious; and trade protectionism is resurging. The external economic environment has become more serious, and uncertainties have increased significantly."
– All of the official figures are premised on a growth rate of 8 percent. However, the IMF predicted in February that growth in China would be just 6.7 percent in 2009—half the 13 percent achieved in 2007. Other analysts forecast growth of between 5-6 percent.
– CPPCC chairman Jia Qingling pleaded with private businesses not to shed jobs. "We encourage people from the non-public sector… to shoulder their share of social responsibilities and work hard to ensure that no employees in their enterprises are laid off, or suffer pay cuts, or wage arrears, in order to create harmonious labour relations," he declared.
– But more than 20 million rural migrant workers have already lost their jobs. Medium and small enterprises (SEMs), especially in the export sector, are being hit hard.
– According to the Nanfan Daily last month, 20,000 SEMs in Guangdong province have shut down since October, with the loss of 2 million jobs.
– Lau Tat-pong, chairman of the Hong Kong Small and Medium Enterprise Association, told the South China Morning Post that Hong Kong-owned firms in the Pearl River Delta had been badly affected. In some manufacturing towns, only 20-30 percent were operating. Across the region, about 40 percent of the 65,000 factories were operating at just 50 percent of capacity. One-fifth had lost 30 percent of orders, while 30 percent had lost 10 percent of their business.
– Larger multinationals have also been forced to cut production and jobs. Intel is slashing 2,000 jobs in Shanghai and transferring its operation to Sichuan province where wages are cheaper. Last month, Panasonic Electronic Devices (Beijing) announced job cuts, as part of the Japanese corporation’s plans for a 5 percent reduction in its global workforce.
– The presidents of the country’s five most prestigious universities warned last Friday that the top 500 multinationals operating in China have cut job opportunities for college graduates by 40 percent. Xu Xianming, president of Shandong University, said: "Such a decline has given us a warning that the global financial crisis is really coming. We have to prepare for the worst because the worst of the turmoil hasn’t arrived yet."
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose in February to 49, up from 45.3 in January and an all-time low of 38.8 in November. The rise, however, is mainly the result of manufacturers stocking up on raw materials, rather than planning to expand production. A PMI reading below 50 means that manufacturing is contracting.
– He Jiming from the China International Capital Corporation told the Financial Times last week: "Chinese GDP may continue to rebound robustly in the second quarter due to full fiscal stimulus effects. But it may decline remarkably in the fourth quarter due to falling credit, fading stimulus effects from infrastructure construction, and shrinking private demand."
– Beijing is providing only one third of the stimulus package or $161 billion over two years, leaving the rest to state banks, firms and local governments. One third of new bank lending is believed to have gone into the share markets, rather than productive capacity, due to a lack of confidence in economic prospects. Of the 100 billion yuan allocated for the last quarter, only 30 billion has been disbursed.
– Fearful of social unrest, the Chinese leadership has made some limited welfare proposals. A Social Security Law is being drawn up promising universal access to basic healthcare, workplace injury and unemployment insurance and pensions. As well as providing a social safety net, the law is aimed at boosting domestic consumer spending.
– However, with declining tax revenues and falling profits across every section of industry, there is little room for making concessions to working people. A proposed increase in minimum wages across China was frozen in November, and a Labour Contract Law introduced in 2008 to provide basic legal protection for workers has been effectively suspended by many local governments.
– Following public criticism, Wen announced that the proportion of the stimulus package to be spent on social programs would be increased from 1 to 4 percent. Spending on education this year will rise by 24 percent, healthcare by 38 percent and low cost housing for poor families by 171 percent. However, much of the increase is supposed to come from local governments, which are already in deep financial strife due to falling revenues.
– The government has promised 850 billion yuan over the next three years to make healthcare affordable for working people, but 34.15 billion yuan or 6.9 percent has been announced in this year’s budget. Even when the economy was booming, Beijing’s pledges often failed to materialise. In 1997, Beijing promised to spend 4 percent of GDP on education by 2000. By 2007, the proportion was only 2.8 percent.
– The regime confronts a dilemma. While under pressure to increase consumer spending as a means of halting the economic slowdown, any increase in wages will undermine China’s position as the world’s premier cheap labour platform. All levels of government are vying to offer tax concessions, cheap land and cheap labour to keep foreign investment flowing in.
The one area that Beijing has no hesitation in boosting spending is on the security forces. The military budget will increase by another 14.9 percent to $70.2 billion—making it 19 years of double-digit growth. The increase is not only to advance the regime’s ambitions to make China a world power, but to strengthen the security apparatus to deal with social unrest that will inevitably erupt in response to falling living standards.
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