JENNIFER STEINHAUER
+ Nyt 081113, Paterson chiede risparmi di bilancio per $5,2 MD, DANNY HAKIM
– La maggior parte degli Stati USA, molti dei quali hanno già operato forti tagli di bilancio, sta cercando di non tagliare esercizi vitali o aumentare le tasse fino a fine anno; i loro deficit di bilancio sono comparsi solo da alcune settimane o mesi. Solo una decina di stati non sono in deficit per quest’anno fiscale, in gran parte sono nell’Ovest, e posseggono minerali e petrolio.
– Michigan, il prossimo inverno riduzione del numero delle strade comparse di sale anti-gelo;
– Ohio, disoccupazione oltre il 7%, per coprire i costi della disoccupazione potrebbe chiedere un prestito federale, il primo in 26 anni; ha approvato un pacchetto di $1,5 MD, in bond, per lavori pubblici, progetti energia rinnovabile, industria bio-medica.
– Nevada, del tutto dipendente dalle imposte sulle vendite e le scommesse, …, potrebbe non essere in grado di pagare le richieste sanitarie.
– California, il governatore Schwarzenegger vuole un aumento dell’1,5% le imposte sulle vendite (ora al 6,25%);
– Stato di New York, la sua principale fonte di entrate fiscali è l’industria finanziaria; il governatore democratico Paterson vuole risparmi di $5,2MD, con tagli soprattutto a sanità ed educazione, con $121 MD le due maggiori voci di bilancio (tagli per $585 mn per educazione quest’anno + altri $844 mn. nel 2009) Previsti risparmi per $2MD entro aprile e $5,2 MD nei seguenti 16 mesi. Anche se il piano verrà approvato rimane a NY un deficit di $8,8 MD per l’anno fiscale iniziante ad aprile.
o Nei primi anni 1990, Paterson aveva proposto i primi tagli per l’assistenza scolastica, ora chiede ai sindacati di riaprire gli accordi precedenti e rinunciare agli aumenti del 3% per i dipendenti pubblici (200mila circa), come fece NY nella crisi fiscale degli anni 1970; chiede ai lavoratori 5 giorni di lavoro senza retribuzione.
o Progetta aumenti delle tasse universitarie, + $300, primo semestre, altrettanti il secondo (contro i $348 mn. di aiuti statali alle università; propone la riduzione dei rimborsi per la sanità (Medicaid ed altri programmi) per $572 mn. nel 2008, e $1,2 MD nel 2009, la chiusura di alcuni centri di detenzione giovanile; l’aumento delle imposte su assicurazioni sanitarie, il 90% pagato ora dallo Stato dovrebbe scendere al 50%. Sarebbe il terzo taglio attuato quest’anno sulla sanità.
o I repubblicani si sarebbero alleati ai sindacati per combattere i tagli all’educazione, ma anche contro aumenti delle tasse.
o Forte reazione da parte dei settori interessati ai tagli proposti da Paterson.
– Oregon: proposto un pacchetto stimolo di $1MD, per miglioramenti alle infrastrutture, da pagare con un aumento di 2 cent/gallone delle imposte statali sul gas, e aumenti sulle tasse di circolazione.
– Washington, proposto pacchetto finanziario per progetti edili federali e statali.
– le casse di previdenza contro la disoccupazione di alcuni Stati sono vuote; gli Stati con i maggiori problemi sono quello in cui il boom delle abitazioni si è trasformato negli ultimi due anni in una crisi sui mutui:
o Rhode Island: deficit oltre l’11% del bilancio statale, gran parte per i prestiti subprime; storie analoghe in Arizona, California, Florida e Nevada.
o La crisi nei mercati finanziari ha un impatto immediato sui bilanci degli Stati, che hanno perso le entrate dalle imposte sui profitti da capitale, …, con l’aumento della disoccupazione, sono calate anche le tasse derivanti dai redditi da lavoro e prosciugati i fondi anti-disoccupazione.
o Con il calo dei consumi, sono colpiti gli Stati le cui entrate derivano in gran parte dalle imposte sulle vendite o il turismo (Florida, Arizona; Nevada, Hawaii).
o Anche la restrizione del credito per gli affari si trasforma in perdite per i bilanci pubblici.
Come altri Stati, la California prende a prestito denaro per pagare le uscite, in anticipo sulle entrate future … ; contee e stati con un basso rating avranno costi maggiori per i prestiti.
By JENNIFER STEINHAUER
LOS ANGELES — Two short months ago lawmakers in California struggled to close a $15 billion hole in the state budget. It was among the biggest deficits in state history. Now the state faces an additional $11 billion shortfall and may be unable to pay its bills this spring.
The astonishing decline in revenues is without modern precedent here, but California is hardly alone. A majority of states — many with budgets already full of deep cuts and dependent on raiding rainy-day funds or tax increases — are scrambling to find ways to get through the rest of the year without hacking apart vital services or raising taxes.
– Some governors, including Arnold Schwarzenegger in California and David A. Paterson in New York, have called special legislative sessions to deal with the crisis.
– Others are demanding hiring freezes and across-the-board cuts. A few states are finding their unemployment insurance funds running dry, just as the ranks of out-of-work residents spike.
– The plunging revenues — the result of an unusual assemblage of personal, sales, capital gains and corporate taxes falling significantly — have poked holes in budgets that are just weeks and months old and that came about only after difficult legislative sessions.
“The fiscal landscape,” said H. D. Palmer, a spokesman for the California Department of Finance, “is fundamentally altered from where it was six weeks ago.”
– In Michigan, to reduce overtime costs, fewer streets will be salted this winter. In Ohio, where the unemployment rate is above 7 percent, the state may need a federal loan for the first time in 26 years to cover unemployment costs. In Nevada, which is almost totally dependent on sales taxes and gambling revenues, a health administrator said the state may be unable to pay claims in a few months.
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ALBANY — State aid to schools and hospitals would be cut sharply in the next four months and thousands of state workers would be asked to defer five days of pay under an emergency deficit reduction plan unveiled by Gov. David A. Paterson on Wednesday.
The plan calls for reducing state spending, with some revenue increases, to save $2 billion by April, and $5.2 billion over the next 16 months. Health care and education, the two largest pieces of the $121 billion budget, would bear the brunt of the reductions as the state tries to contain a deepening fiscal crisis.
– Even if the Legislature were to approve Mr. Paterson’s plan at a special session next week, the state would still face an $8.8 billion shortfall for the fiscal year that begins on April 1. And support for the cuts in the Legislature is far from certain, particularly among Republicans who lead the Senate and staunchly defend state aid to education.
– Little was spared as Mr. Paterson, a Democrat, proposed the first midyear cuts in public school aid since the early 1990s. He said he would ask labor union[e]s to reopen previously negotiated contracts and agree to forgo 3-percent raises next year for state workers — the kind of drastic step New York City took in the fiscal crisis of the 1970s.
– He also said he would seek tuition increases at state universities, starting with a $300 rise in the spring semester. And he proposed reducing Medicaid reimbursements sharply and closing half a dozen juvenile detention centers around the state, which he said were underused.
While he avoided proposing across-the-board tax increases, the governor said he wanted to raise taxes on health insurers, a cost likely to be passed on to the public, and to extend the 5-cent deposit now charged for soda and beer to bottled water.
“This is the worst economic crisis in this country since the Great Depression,” he said at a news conference in New York City on Wednesday morning. “That’s not an alarming statement, as it may have been when I said it in July. It’s now real.”
– The Senate Republicans have struck close alliances with labor union[e]s and promised to ward off cuts to education — but at the same time they say they will not accept tax increases. Suburban school aid is particularly important to Senator Dean G. Skelos, the majority leader and a Long Island Republican.
“Education aid cuts, midyear, are unfair,” Mr. Skelos said Wednesday night, adding: “I don’t see anything creative in this budget. It’s just hack away, hack away.”
He did not offer any alternative cuts, instead calling on the governor to release his plan for next year’s budget now, even though Mr. Paterson already plans to release it on Dec. 16, more than a month ahead of schedule.
“These important decisions about New York’s future cannot be made in a vacuum,” Mr. Skelos said.
Senator Thomas W. Libous, a Binghamton Republican and the deputy majority leader, said in an interview that taking “money away that’s already been given to people, already been put in their budgets” was “not fair.”
Last week’s election results are likely to complicate the budget negotiations. Democrats captured 32 of 62 seats in the Senate, winning a majority for the first time in more than four decades. Three Democrats, however, have refused to back the current minority leader, Malcolm A. Smith, to become the new majority leader, leaving the Democratic caucus in disarray.
– The Legislature must come up with something, because the state faces a $1.5 billion deficit in the budget for the 2009 fiscal year, which ends on March 31, and a $12.5 billion deficit for the 2010 fiscal year. State law requires that the budget be balanced.
– While the catalyst for the current crisis has been the collapse of the financial industry, the state’s main source of tax revenue, Mr. Paterson said that years of excessive spending had left the state’s budget in need of drastic streamlining.
Wall Street has “bailed us out for a number of years,” the governor said, but “now the well has run dry.”
– The governor said he would not seek layoffs, but labor leaders have expressed reluctance to agree to reopen contracts negotiated on behalf of the state’s roughly 200,000 workers. Mr. Paterson could resort to job cuts if the union[e]s do not back down, and he would say only that he was not seeking layoffs right now.
– The governor is also proposing to require state retirees to pay far more for health insurance. The state now pays 90 percent of their premiums; that could fall as low as 50 percent under the plan.
In the pay deferral plan, state employees would work five days without pay this fiscal year; they would get the money when they retire, at their future pay levels.
– Almost every interest group touched by the cuts weighed in with outrage.
“Governor Paterson’s proposal is an assault on services at every level and will unnecessarily cause great harm,” said Danny Donohue, the president of the state’s Civil Service Employees Association. Billy Easton, the executive director of the Alliance for Quality Education, an advocacy group, said, “This is money that is going into classrooms today that the governor wants to take out tomorrow.”
– And Daniel Sisto, the president of the Healthcare Association of New York State, a statewide trade group for hospitals, said in an interview that he was “stunned by the magnitude of what they’re trying to do.”
“This will be the third time they’ve cut health care this year and we have another budget round coming in December,” Mr. Sisto said. “We’re doing a budget, it seems, for every season.”
The governor argued that New York’s spending was still high in many areas. Many cuts would reduce growth in spending, rather than actually reduce spending from last year. But many wealthier school districts would see actual cuts in state aid, while most poorer districts would get smaller increases than anticipated.
“We think many of the advocates may not like these cuts, but they can’t say these are beyond the parameters of what would be reasonable to cut at this time, with this deficit,” Mr. Paterson said.
Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver of New York, the Legislature’s top Democrat, said in a statement that Mr. Paterson had put forward “a bold plan” that “recognizes the painful reality that this crisis is unlike any we have faced in our adult lives and will require deep cuts.”
– Under the governor’s plan, $585 million would be cut from school aid in the current fiscal year and another $844 million next year. The plan would reduce aid to school districts across the state and also reduce spending on math and science grants, libraries, arts grants and special teacher mentoring programs.
– Students at the State University and the City University of New York would see tuition increase $300 in the spring session and $600 next year. Those increases would largely offset cuts of $348 million in state aid to the universities over this and next year.
– Medicaid and other health care programs would be cut by $572 million this year and $1.2 billion next year under the governor’s plan. He is proposing to reduce the amount the state reimburses health care providers for various procedures, and also to eliminate the annual inflation adjustment to Medicaid reimbursements.
Aid to New York City would also be cut by $41 million this year, to $205 million. That cut comes as the city is already dealing with its own budget crisis.
“We have already taken cuts in education, compared to other counties,” Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg told reporters at an event in Queens. “I want to make sure we’re not penalized for having done the right thing.”
Kenneth Adams, chief executive of the Business Council of New York State, said Mr. Paterson “presented a plan that makes difficult but necessary choices to reduce state spending to close an unprecedented budget gap that gets worse by the day.” He added, “The state simply cannot tax its way out of this crisis.”
Nicholas Confessore, Jeremy W. Peters and Fernanda Santos contributed reporting.
– In California, Mr. Schwarzenegger, a Republican, and state legislators are preparing to do battle over a proposed 1.5-cent sales tax increase, while in New York, Mr. Paterson, a Democrat, has proposed $5.2 billion worth of savings, principally cuts to Medicaid and education.
Even states where until recent months natural resource production has provided a buffer — and fat surpluses — are experiencing a sudden reversal of fortunes as oil prices have declined.
“Frankly, I thought 2001 was really awful,” said Scott D. Pattison, the executive director of the National Association of State Budget Officers, referring to the last big economic downturn. “It is even worse now.”
He added, “This fiscal year will be really bad, and what is unfortunate is that I can’t see how 2010 won’t be bad too.”
– In keeping with recent economic trends, the states with the worst problems are those where housing booms morphed into a large-scale mortgage crisis over the last two years.
– The current-year budget gap in Rhode Island represents over 11 percent of the state’s entire general fund, in large part because of the high number of subprime loans. The story is similar in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada.
– In addition, the crisis in the financial markets had immediate and widespread impact on state budgets. States have lost revenues from capital gains taxes and bonuses that have evaporated, and growing job losses have reduced state income taxes while draining unemployment funds.
“What we are seeing is when fewer people are working there is less income tax and less spending,” said Keith Dailey, a spokesman for Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio, a Democrat.
– Americans have also stopped shopping, which has hurt states that are heavily reliant on sales taxes, like Florida and Arizona. States that rely on tourism, like Nevada and Hawaii, have also been hurt by less consumer spending.
– Further, the national credit crunch makes it harder for businesses to get loans, which trickles back into losses to states. When California was temporarily unable to gain access to the credit markets in the days leading up to the federal bailout package, state budget directors across the country noted the moment with horror.
– The state’s brief inability to pay bills because it could not get credit — California, like many states, regularly borrows money when it is short of cash in anticipation of revenue flowing in later — has since been largely interpreted as an outgrowth of the much larger national and international credit crisis. Still, some budget experts said the problem could be a harbinger: cities and counties with poor credit ratings could be cut off in the coming year, and there could be higher costs for issuing bonds.
“Just the fact that this was an issue at all is a big concern for every state,” Mr. Pattison said. “Long-term bonds may be at risk. And I think states are going to have to accept that cost of debt is going to be higher.”
In most states, budget directors and legislators have said that tax increases are not likely. A notable exception is California, where Mr. Schwarzenegger is seeking a 1.5-point increase to the state’s 6.25-percent sales tax, although he is unlikely to get the necessary approval of Republican legislators.
– In Oregon, moreover, Gov. Ted Kulongoski, a Democrat, has proposed a $1 billion economic stimulus plan centered on infrastructure improvements, which he envisions would be paid for by raising the state’s gas tax by 2 cents per gallon and increasing a host of vehicle fees.
When regular legislative sessions resume in many states in January, other states will be more likely to look to rainy-day funds, when they are available, and deeper cuts to services, most notably to K-12 education, which is generally a last-resort option among lawmakers.
“Most states have tried to protect K-12 and even higher ed,” said Raymond Scheppach, the executive director of the National Governors Association, “but I think they are both going to be on the block.”
Many states are expected to go to a second round of earlier cuts.
– “We’ve cut universities, we’ve cut our infrastructure spending, we’ve prorated schools and asked employees for concessions twice,” said Leslee Fritz, the spokeswoman for the Michigan State Budget Office. “All the different options out there we have already done more than once.”
– States are also looking to create large-scale infrastructure projects and other construction works as a means of stimulating the local economy.
– The Washington governor, Christine Gregoire, a Democrat, is asking the federal government for hundreds of millions of dollars more for state and federal construction projects.
Ohio officials have already passed a stimulus package of $1.5 billion in bonds, to be used largely for public works, advanced and renewable energy projects, and the biomedical industry.
“States don’t have a lot of economic stimulus tools,” said Mr. Pattison of the budget officers’ association, “but they have infrastructure.”
– Fewer than a dozen states have remained in the black this fiscal year, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal-leaning economic research group in Washington that tracks state budgets, and they are largely those in the West with oil and mineral resources at the ready.
“The oil-producing states were doing very well with oil at $120 a barrel,” said Iris Lav, the deputy director of the center. “They may not do as well now.”
More generally, Ms. Lav said, state budgets are “moving from the damaged to the devastated.”