Asia, economia, mercato lavoro, disoccupazione Wsws 06-05-09
Aumentano i tassi di crescita asiatici ma si inaspriscono
i problemi occupazionali
Nick Beams
Rapporto aprile 2006 della Asian Development Bank (ADB) [Banca
di Sviluppo Asiatico],:
– progressi
nei due scorsi decenni per la riduzione della povertà in Asia, ma 1,9 MD. di
persone vivono ancora con meno di $2/g.;
– l’integrazione
di Cina, India e Russia nell’economia mondiale sta ha generando un enorme esercito
di riserva di forza lavoro disoccupata o sottoccupata, disponibile ad accettare
sotto-salari per sopravvivere.
Negli anni 1990 la
quota di incremento occupazionale per ogni punto di crescita del PIL è stata
inferiore a quella del decennio precedente:
Cina,
–
decennio 1980:
+3% PIL = +1% occupazione; 1990 +8% PIL à +1% occupazione, con tendenza al peggioramento.
–
2006, si prevedono +11mn. nuovi posti di lavoro contro i 25mn. di nuovi posti
di lavoro urbani necessari per i nuovi ingressi nel mercato della forza
lavoro, migrazione dalle campagne, licenziamenti dalle imprese statali.
–
GINI, indice statistico
che misura l’ineguaglianza, + 13 nel 1981-1990;
–
cresciuto anche
in India tra aere urbane e rurali e all’interno delle aree urbane.
Crescita dell’occupazione nel cosiddetto
settore “informale”. con bassa produttività e investimento di capitale:
–
India, contro
+5% PIL 1993-1999, occupazione nel settore informale non agricolo + 80,5%-83,2%.
–
anche in Cina e Vietnam, per
licenziamenti imprese statali e migrazioni dalle campagne; forte crescita in
Indonesia seguita a crisi finanziaria 1997-98; e Filippine e Tailandia.
Modifica del tipo di occupazione
–
Filippine: 1991-1997,
la quota di occupazione non regolare sul totale da 20% al 28%.
–
Nonostante la
disponibilità di esercito industriale di riserva, per intensità di capitale i “settori
economici formali” dei PVS non sono molto diversi da quelli dei paesi
industrializzati. Ad esempio, India fabbrica di motoveicoli: in due anni produttività
X 3, con +90% di addetti.
Ratan Tata, capo del gruppo indiano Tata: il 20% del miliardo di indiani
è sotto i 20 anni; nel 2040 l’India avrà la maggiore popolazione in età
lavorativa del mondo, sorpassando anche la Cina.
Wsws 06-05-09
Asian
growth rates rise but employment problems deepen
By Nick Beams
Despite relatively high levels of
growth, Asia is heading for an employment
crisis with far-reaching social and political consequences. That is the
conclusion which emerges from a
new book on the region’s labour markets published by the Asian Development Bank
(ADB) last month.
“The outlines of an Asian employment
crisis are already taking shape,” the ADB’s chief economist Ifzal Ali said at
the book launch. “Strong economic growth alone will not solve the problem. Even
in countries that have achieved relatively high growth rates of output,
employment growth has been disappointing.”
The ADB study notes that, although the region has made some advances in the reduction
of poverty over the past two decades, some 1.9 billion people still live on less than $2 a day,
either unable to find work or earning too little from the employment they do
obtain.
– The bank pointed to a
“huge global oversupply of labour” resulting from the integration of China, India
and Russia
into the world economy.
– “Asia’s success will sooner or
later be eclipsed by the pressures
of a huge ‘reserve army’ of unemployed and underemployed workers who are
constantly driven to seek out
employment at sub-standard wages in order to survive,” Ali said.
“The potential of developing Asian
economies is widely recognised. But unless Asian governments make job creation
a central national objective backed by time-bound, feasible, credible and
measurable policies, the region may well remain plagued by huge unemployment,
underemployment and poverty—and all the challenges they create.”
One of the most significant findings of
the ADB study is that the percentage increase in employment
during the 1990s for every percentage point growth in
the gross domestic product (GDP) was lower
than in the previous decade.
– The largest fall was in China—the world’s fastest growing
economy—where growth of 3 percent
in the 1980s produced a 1 percent increase in employment, while a growth rate of almost 8 percent was needed to achieve the
same result in the 1990s.
The problem appears to be worsening.
– In 2006, it is estimated
that about 25 million new urban jobs need to be created in China to accommodate new entrants to the labour market, rural migrants
and workers laid off from state enterprises. But according to the latest estimates, only 11
million new jobs will be generated.
The ADB has found what it calls “disappointing” results so far as income inequality is concerned.
– In China,
the Gini index, which provides a
statistical measure of inequality, rose by 13 percentage points between 1981 and 2000.
– Inequality has also
increased in India, both between urban and rural areas and within urban areas.
The ADB study also found that employment in the so-called
“informal” sector, where productivity is very low and little capital is
employed, is “either on the rise or remains persistent.
– In India, where per capita
GDP growth was close to 5 percent between 1993 and 1999, the share of the informal sector in non-agricultural employment
increased from 80.5 percent to
83.2 percent.
– Informal employment was
also on the increase in China and
Vietnam as a result of layoffs in state-owned enterprises and an
increase in rural-urban migration.
– The study also found a “dramatic” rise in informal employment in Indonesia
following the Asian financial
crisis of 1997-98, with increases also recorded in the Philippines
and Thailand.
Moreover, the nature of employment is
also changing. “While previously formal sector employment was synonymous with
‘regular’ contracts, which among other things offered considerable job
security, this is increasingly not the case.
– A survey of formal sector establishments in the Philippines
shows that the proportion of nonregular workers in total employment increased
from about 20 percent in 1991 to about 28 percent in 1997.”
– In examining the causes of these phenomena, the study noted that the increase in the effective size
of the global labour force had not been
accompanied by a surge in capital for investment.
– At the same time, while
the relative labour abundance of developing countries would suggest the use of
more labour-intensive methods in the formal industry and service sectors, this was
not the case and the “formal sectors of developing countries are not very
different from those of industrial countries in terms of capital intensity.”
– A study conducted at an Indian motorbike and scooter factory, for example, found that
while 810 workers produced 244,000 units two years ago, after the introduction of greater
automation and changes on the shop floor, the factory is turning out nearly
three times as many motorbikes with just 90 more workers. “As executives at leading
manufacturing plants explain, the introduction of labour-saving techniques is
deemed essential for achieving ‘international competitiveness’.”
The ADB study called for “significant
increases” in the demand for labour in the formal sector. Not only did
aggregate production have to increase but this expansion had to be labour
intensive. But policy prescriptions to make this happen are another question.
After calling for policies to “promote diversification of production activities
into new areas, facilitate restructuring of existing activities, and foster
coordination between public and private entities”, it acknowledged that, while
such measures might alleviate some of the problems associated with the adoption
of new technologies and the intense competition between firms, they would not
eliminate them.
– “In other words, it is
quite likely that unemployment driven by the adoption of new technologies and
heightened competition among firms will continue to be serious problems.”
Just how serious was underlined in a
recent speech by the head of one of India’s leading industrial and
engineering firms. Delivering the Hatfield lecture at Cornell University
last month,
–
Ratan Tata, the head of the Tata Group, pointed out that of
India’s
billion plus population 20 percent are under the age of 20. By the year 2040 the country would have
the world’s largest working-age population, surpassing even that of China.
“These young Indians want a place in the
sun, an education, a job, the kind of life they know exists from television,”
he said. “Will there be jobs for them?” If not, he warned, the country may see
“the makings of a revolution.”