L’economia europea migliora ma incontra ostacoli nella competizione globale

Valutazioni in vista del World Economic Forum:
ciclo europeo caratterizzato da dicotomia tra imprese
che vanno bene, con alti profitti, ma consumi che restano bassi causa stagnazione
salari e occupazione.

• Ken Wattret, capo economista BNP Paribas a Londra:
  ciclo differente dagli altri: “grandi notizie per il settore imprese, non per
  le famiglie”.
• USA sono riusciti ad aggirare l’ostacolo con i consumi a
  credito, basato su ipoteche sulla casa: acquisti di auto e TV grande schermo.
• In EU profitti elevati, alimentati da export verso USA, Asia
  e paesi petroliferi, alimentano ottimismo imprese, che (Germania) hanno ripreso
  ad investire in macchinari.
• Ma consumi (57% del PIL nella zona euro) restano stagnanti,
  perché salari ristagnano.
• Michael Dicks, capo economista Lehman Bros per l’EU:
  “Potendo minacciare i loro dipendenti di aprire stabilimenti in Est EU o
  Cina, le imprese stanno dettando gli accordi sui salari come mai avevano potuto
  fare nei passati cicli economici.
• Ciò non è diverso dagli USA, ma diversamente da USA e GB gli
  europei continentali sono restii ad indebitarsi e più inclini al risparmio.
• Per l’area euro si prevede PIL +2 – +2,2% nel 2006, in aumento
  sul +1,5% del 2005, anche se molti prevedono ricada sotto il 2% dal 2007.
• In genere in EU al boom dell’export segue una ripresa dei
  consumi, ma questa volta la risposta è più lenta.
• Molto dipende dalla GER che rappresenta il 30% del
  PIL zona euro. Qui la disoccupazione è in lenta riduzione, dal 12 all’11%, ma
  in buona parte è dovuta a posti di lavoro a basso salario, sostenuti dallo
  Stato.
• I consumi in GER sono diminuiti in ciascuno degli ultimi tre
  trimestri, il calo più continuativo mai registrato.
• Società tedesche vedono i più elevati aumenti dei profitti,
  in seguito a diversi anni di tagli dei costi e dell’imposizione di maggiore
  flessibilità alla forza lavoro. In Francia e Italia la ristrutturazione
  delle imprese non si è spinta tanto avanti.
• Mentre IRLANDA e SPAGNA hanno ancora una buona crescita,
  anche GB rallenta, al 2% quest’anno secondo previsioni. Il suo
  rallentamento si ripercuote sulla zona euro.

By MARCUS WALKER

Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

January 23, 2006; Page A2

BERLIN — As the world’s business elite
gathers in Switzerland this week for the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum, optimism about Europe’s laggard economy hasn’t been so high since
before the tech bubble burst. But don’t count on Europe to float the global
economy yet.

Despite a lot of good news on the
corporate front, cheap global competition has kept wages and job creation flat in most of the 12-nation euro currency zone. That is a problem,
because in the past it was the shopping spree following hiring and wage rises
that produced full-blooded economic recoveries.

"This economic cycle is different
from others," says Ken Wattret, chief euro-zone economist at BNP
Paribas in London. "It’s been great news for the corporate sector
but not for the household sector."

The U.S. managed to get around that
problem, producing surging growth in its post-2001
recovery even as wage levels and initially employment stayed flat. But that was
because U.S. consumers, encouraged by rising property and stock prices,
racked up credit-card bills and borrowed against their home equity to buy more
cars and big-screen television sets. Continental Europeans, however, won’t
or can’t do that.

The result: Many economists believe that euro-zone
growth rates will top out at about 2%, widely considered the floor for
growth in the U.S. — let alone the tiger economies of the emerging East.

There has been a lot to celebrate lately in
the core euro-zone economies. Buoyant corporate profits, fueled by exports
to the U.S., Asia and oil-producing countries are pushing business-sentiment
sky high. Germany’s Ifo business survey, for example, shows the
highest level of confidence among exporters since the survey began in 1991.
Companies are finally investing their higher profits at home, especially by buying
new equipment. The stock market has risen 28% in the past year, compared
with 3% for the Dow.

The bad news is that on its own, an
export-led recovery probably can only go so far. Domestic consumption makes up
57% of gross domestic product in the euro zone. That makes it vital for
sustained 3%-plus growth rates of the kind that Germany, France and Italy used
to enjoy in the 1980s. So far though, consumers aren’t running out to shop,
because they aren’t getting any more money in their pay packets.

Able to threaten their work forces with
the possibility of opening plants in Eastern Europe or China, companies are
dictating wage settlements in a way they never could during past economic
cycles, according to Michael Dicks, chief
European economist at Lehman Brothers.

That is no different from in the U.S., but
unlike Americans and Britons, Continental Europeans tend to be averse to taking
on debt and are more inclined to save. Meanwhile, conservative banking
rules in many core European economies don’t allow Europeans to go shopping with
money borrowed against the value of their homes.

Economists predict euro-zone GDP will grow
by about 2% to 2.2% this year, up from an expected 1.5% in 2005. But many
believe the growth rate will decline to below 2% again the year after, because
of the risk that U.S. and Asian demand for European goods will slow down, while
domestic cosumption fails to compensate.

Some analysts believe the labor market will
indeed pick up, albeit slowly. Companies enjoying rising profits are more
likely, at some point, to grant their employees higher wage rises, says Julian
Callow, chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London. That means the
classic sequence of a European recovery should still hold, with exports fueling
investment and consumption following. It’s just that this time, "the
responses are slower," he says.

Much slower. The euro-zone economy has been
expanding modestly since 2003, yet companies’ hiring intentions are still
barely positive, according to surveys such as the Purchasing Managers’
Index. Normally by this stage in the cycle, such indicators show clearly
positive scores.

A lot depends on Germany, the world’s third-biggest national economy, which makes up 30%
of GDP in the euro zone. Official figures show German unemployment
declining slowly, from more than 12% to nearer 11%, during the past year. But
much of the reduction relates to very low-paid, state-sponsored employment schemes
that do little to boost household incomes. Consumer spending in Germany
has fallen in each of the past three quarters for which data are available, the
most sustained decline on record. On Wednesday, the German government is
expected to raise its growth forecast for this year — to about 1.4% from 1.2%.

Some smaller European economies such as Spain
and Ireland are still growing well, but Germany probably has the best
outlook of the biggest euro-zone countries. German companies are seeing the
strongest gains in profits, because of several years of cost-cutting and
efforts to force workers into more flexible working practices. Corporate
restructuring in France and Italy hasn’t gone as far.Even the United Kingdom, which has thrived
outside the euro zone on a more U.S.-style, consumer-driven economy, is
seeing its growth rates fall now. Britain’s GDP could expand 2% this year,
according to Oxford Economic Forecasting, possibly giving it lower growth than
the euro zone for the first time since 1995. Given that the U.K. is one of the
euro zone’s most important export markets, that is one more headwind to hold
back a strong European recovery.