Cina, Giappone, Usa, rel. int.li Nyt 05-09-11La rivalità del Giappone con la Cina sta agitando un mare affollato
Norimitsu Onishi e Howard w. French
Due
giorni prima delle elezioni giapponesi, il cui esito potrebbe
fortemente influenzare le relazioni tra i due paesi, e due settimane
prima del progettato avvio della produzione di gas cinese nell’area, la
Cina ha mostrato i muscoli a prova della sua crescente potenza militare
ed economica schierando cinque navi da guerra nel Mar cinese orientale,
nei pressi del giacimento di gas di Chunxiao disputato tra Cina e
Giappone.
La disputa potenzialmente esplosiva tra Cina e Giappone riguarda ampie riserve di gas naturale e potenziali riserve petrolifere sotto il Mar Cinese orientale. I due paesi non concordano sulla linea di confine.
Si
ripresenterebbe secondo l’Ammiraglio Lang Nig-li, taiwanese, una
situazione simile a quella degli anni 1930 nel Pacifico centrale, di
interesse vitale sia per gli Usa che per il Giappone che
stava rafforzando la propria marina. L’attacco giapponese a Pearl
Harbor avvenne dopo l’embargo petrolifero americano contro il Giappone.
Cina:
- La Cina ha proposto di sfruttare assieme le risorse energetiche dell’area, il Giappone ha rifiutato. Ha anzi concesso alla società giapponese Teikoku Oil i diritti di test di prospezione nelle acque disputate. La Cina, che ha progetti per il gas per un’area vicina a quella del petrolio, ha immediatamente protestato.
-
ha finora cercato di prendere tempo nelle relazioni con gli Usa su
Taiwan, mentre la propria economia cresce e ammoderna le forze armate
con l’acquisizione di sottomarini russi e lo sviluppo di propri
sottomarini nucleari sempre più sofisticati. Si calcola che la Cina
abbia già dispiegato 40-60 sottomarini nel Mar Cinese orientale. - Ora la Cina ha iniziato ad avvisare il Giappone che in caso di interferenze su Taiwan passerà all’uso della forza.
-
Anche Taiwan
ha in corso dispute territoriali marittime con il Giappone, ma coopera
con Giappone e Usa per il pattugliamento della regione.
Usa:
- Le tensioni cino-giapponesi hanno importanti implicazioni per gli Usa, che storicamente hanno cercato di mantenere un equilibrio nella regione, uno dei più seri focolai di crisi.
- Gli Usa contano sull’appoggio giapponese per difendere Taiwan da un eventuale attacco cinese.
-
Durante la guerra fredda gli Usa preferirono che il Giappone fosse
militarmente passivo, finché rimaneva un fedele alleato, acquistava
armi americane e permetteva lo stanziamento di decine di migliaia di
truppe americane sul suo territorio. -
L’amministrazione
Bush ha spinto il Giappone ad assumere un atteggiamento più deciso, a
stringere i legami tra forze armate e industria della difesa dei due
paesi e incoraggiato i politici conservatori giapponesi a trasformare
le proprie forze armate da auto-difesa a forze armate a pieno titolo e
a rivedere la Costituzione, per poter inviare le truppe in Irak,
esportare armamenti e aderire allo scudo di difesa missilistica
congiunta degli Usa.
Giappone:
- In
caso che la Cina acquisisca il controllo di Taiwan, il Giappone teme
che venga messo a rischio gran parte del proprio rifornimento di
petrolio, che avviene tramite due rotte: una appena più a sud
di Taiwan e l’altra più costosa molto più a sud dell’isola, che
richiede due giorni aggiuntivi di viaggio. -
Nel 2004
il Giappone ha modificato il dispiegamento delle proprie forze navali,
spostandole dal Nord – per il contenimento della Russia durante la
guerra fredda -, e rafforzando Okinawa, per il contenimento della Cina
nel Mar cinese orientale.
Assieme agli Usa, il Giappone ha
sollecitato con forza la Ue a non revocare l’embargo sulle armi contro
la Cina; il segnale più forte l’ha inviato con difendendo Taiwan contro
la Cina, posizione presa pubblicamente.Nyt 05-09-11
Japan’s Rivalry With China Is Stirring a Crowded Sea
By NORIMITSU ONISHI and HOWARD W. FRENCH
TOKYO, Sept. 10 – In
a muscular display of its rising military and economic might, China
deployed a fleet of five warships on Friday near a gas field in the
East China Sea, a potentially resource-rich area that is disputed by
China and Japan.
The ships, including a guided-missile destroyer, were spotted by a Japanese military patrol plane near the Chunxiao gas field, according to the Maritime Self-Defense Forces. It is believed to be the first time that Chinese warships have been seen in that area.
Although the
fleet’s mission was unclear, its timing suggested that it was no
coincidence. The warships appeared two days before a general election
in Japan, whose results could greatly influence relations between
Asia’s two great powers, and weeks before China is scheduled to start
producing gas in the area, against strong Japanese protests.
In
Japan, where the 12-day election campaign was exclusively focused on
domestic issues and on what the media described as Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi’s theatrical politics, the warships were a sudden
reminder of its most pressing outside challenge: China.
Until Mr. Koizumi diverted voters’ attention from Japan’s rapidly deteriorating relationship with China, the
focus for several months had been trained on the increasing diplomatic,
military and economic rivalry with China – much of it taking place in
the waters between the countries, filled with potentially explosive
issues like oil and gas and Taiwan.
Both
Japan and China are determined to wield a strong hand in the oil-rich
seas and strategic shipping lanes that lie between them.
is like the 1930’s again, when the central Pacific became a vital
concern to both the United States and Japan, whose navy was expanding,"
said Adm. Lang Ning-li, who until his recent retirement was Taiwan’s
director of naval intelligence. "That means there could be conflict between China and Japan, which both see these seas as vital, and can’t share this space."
experts from China, Japan, Taiwan and the United States say all the
elements are in place for a showdown over Taiwan between Beijing and
Tokyo. No one is predicting war, but Taiwan poses a
permanent and unpredictable potential crisis. Washington has a close
alliance with Japan, security commitments with Taiwan and a complex
relationship with China that mixes rivalry with extensive economic ties.
America, whose support of either Japan or China has historically tipped
the balance in the region, the implications are enormous. The recent
comments by a Chinese general that his country would use nuclear
weapons against the United States if the American military intervened
in a conflict over Taiwan were a sharp reminder that Taiwan’s fate
remains one of the region’s biggest flash points.
Many analysts argue that such confrontation, verbal or otherwise, could
lead to a regional arms race culminating in a nuclear Japan.
its survival is dependent on keeping those seas stable. Chinese control
of Taiwan could hurt Japan’s access to oil, Japan fears. And the United States, which has pledged to defend Taiwan if it is attacked by China, would like to count on Japan’s help. During the cold war, Japan conducted joint operations with the United States to keep Soviet submarines out of the Sea of Japan. The submarines are now Chinese, but the policy toward them is pure containment.
can come out as much as you want, unless you do something wrong," said
Adm. Koichi Furusho, who served as chief of staff of Japan’s Maritime
Self-Defense Force until January.
cold-war view of China emerged recently in Japan, but Japan’s embrace
of it is one of the reasons behind the worsening relations between the
countries.
States was willing to let Japan remain militarily passive as long as it
remained a loyal ally, continued to buy American arms and allowed tens
of thousands of American troops to be stationed on Japanese soil.
The
Bush administration, more suspicious of China than its predecessor, has
pushed Japan to take a more assertive stance. It has called for closer
ties between the countries’ militaries and defense industries and has
encouraged conservative Japanese politicians who have long wanted to
change the Self-Defense Forces into a full-fledged military and revise
the Constitution.
Japanese government reinterpreted the Constitution to allow it to
dispatch troops to Iraq and effectively abandoned the decades-old ban
against arms exports by joining the American missile defense shield.
a major readjustment of its defense policy late last year, Japan
redeployed its forces away from northern Japan where they were involved
in the cold-war containment of Russia and reinforced Okinawa,
considered crucial in the containment of China in the East China Sea. Saying
that "China, which has significant influence on the region’s security,
is pushing forward its nuclear and missile capabilities and
modernization of its navy and air force," Japan’s Defense Agency
labeled China a "concern."
has joined the United States in aggressively lobbying the European
Union not to lift its arms embargo on China. But the strongest signal
yet was Japan’s tougher public stance on defending Taiwan against China.
and how Japan and the United States feel a threat from China," said
David Huang, Taiwan’s vice chairman of mainland affairs. He added, "The
joint statement is a signal to China: ‘Don’t push too far.’ "
United States may see its future rivalry with China as playing out on a
global stage. But for Japan, the stage is Asia and the epicenter is
around Taiwan.
Japan, which has always
seen its lack of natural resources as its Achilles’ heel, attacked
Pearl Harbor after the United States imposed an oil embargo on Japan.
Most
of Japan’s oil is shipped through two sea lanes: one directly south of
Taiwan and another farther south, which increases the shipping length
by a costly two days.
conditions are balanced now," said Mr. Furusho, the former chief of
staff of Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Forces, "they would collapse as soon as Taiwan unifies with China. The sea lanes would turn all red."
a generation, asserting control over Taiwan has been the most deeply
cherished dream of Beijing’s politicians. The separation of China into
two parts, in this view, is an unbearable insult to the very idea of
being Chinese. Because so few Chinese still feel ideologically bound to
the Communist Party, reuniting Taiwan with mainland China is one of the
most important ways to bind the government to its public. Standing up
to Japan is another, and the two thoughts are increasingly intertwined.
leaders have always felt the need to tread carefully in challenging
Washington over its security commitments to Taiwan, preferring to bide
their time as the economy grows and the military, particularly its air force and navy, develop into world-class fighting forces. Already,
by some estimates, the country has deployed 40 to 60 submarines in the
East China Sea, and China is rapidly modernizing this force, acquiring
quieter models from Russia and developing increasingly sophisticated
nuclear submarines of its own.
"I would like to say calmly to Japan, the Taiwan issue is a domestic
affair and a matter of life or death to us," China’s foreign minister,
Li Zhaoxing, told his Japanese counterpart recently. "It is dangerous
to touch China’s matter of life or death."
a potentially explosive tussle is already being played out over large
natural gas reserves and potentially important oil reserves beneath the
East China Sea. The two rivals disagree over how to draw the maritime
dividing line between them in those waters. China has offered to
jointly exploit the energy resources in the area, but Japan has refused.
Tokyo, meanwhile, has asked China to share seismic data and other
information, and more recently has unsuccessfully urged Beijing to
freeze its plans to begin pumping gas.
officials refused several requests for comment on the issue, but
Chinese legal experts say they worry that the situation could get out
of hand. "China has given out warnings many times, using tough words,
telling Japan not to take any dangerous actions that could disturb
stability in the region," said Xiu Bin, an expert in international
maritime law at Ocean University in Qingdao.
Tokyo
recently upped the ante by granting a Japanese company, Teikoku Oil,
the rights to test-drill in disputed waters. China, which has gas
projects near the test-drilling areas, immediately protested.
which also has maritime territorial disputes with Japan, but cooperates
with Japan and the United States in policing the region’s waters.
are going to be colliding for the foreseeable future, and I don’t see
how you can avoid that," said Andrew Nien-Dzu Yang, director of the
Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, in Taipei.
Copyright 2005 The New York Times