La base giapponese suscita increspature regionali/ L’inversione di rotta sulla base USA scatena l’ira a Okinawa
Giappone – le promesse non mantenute di Hatoyama/ Il nuovo primo ministro del Giappone – Naoto Kan: realista con un debole per l’Europa
● Il negoziato sulla ricollocazione della base americana di Futenma, Okinawa, è una questione marginale nella questione ben più rilevante di cosa significherà la crescente influenza regionale della Cina per la presenza militare navale americana in Est Asia.
o Per Stephen Walt, Relazioni Internazionali, Harvard, l’ascesa regionale della Cina non rappresenta una minaccia immediata o un cambiamento fondamentale della geo-politica est-asiatica;
o la crescita economica cinese rallenterà con l’invecchiamento della popolazione, e benché la sua potenza militare sia in crescita, è ancora lungi dall’essere un vero “concorrente alla pari” degli USA.
● Le tensioni dello scorso mese di aprile a Okinawa (90 000 manifestanti) sullo spostamento fuori dall’isola della base aerea della marina USA di Futenma hanno fatto temere a Washington
o che il nuovo governo giapponese guidato dal DPJ (Partito democratico del Giappone) di YukioHatoyama mettesse in discussione l’alleanza con gli USA –
o con gravi conseguenze per la capacità degli USA di controbilanciare la potenza navale della Cina in Est Asia.
o Le conseguenti forti pressioni dell’Amministrazione Obama hanno “reso schizofrenici i giapponesi” (John Feffer, dell’Institute for Policy Studies).
– Joseph Nye, Harvard, esperto sull’Asia sul NYT (07.01.2010): stiamo permettendo che una questione di secondaria importanza (come la base di Futenma, 4000 marines sui 50 000 di Okinawa) metta a rischio la strategia di lungo termine americana per l’Est Asia.
o Oltre alla questione di Futenma, il nuovo governo giapponese chiede:
o un’alleanza più alla pari con gli USA,
o migliori relazioni con la Cina,
o la creazione di una comunità est-asiatica (anche se non è chiaro cosa in concreto ciò significhi).
– Yukio Hatoyama e il DPJ hanno centrato la battaglia elettorale sulla rivendicazione di relazioni alla pari nell’alleanza con gli USA (in particolare la presenza dei 50 000 militari americani in Giappone),
– e saliti al governo hanno organizzato incontri diplomatici di alto rango con la Cina.
o A dimostrazione che la questione centrale è la relazione con la Cina, l’attenzione negli Usa, NYT e WP in particolare, si è rivolta al rapido rafforzamento della potenza navale cinese, e allo spostamento delle forze geopolitiche in Est Asia, in qualche modo fatto emergere dalla disputa sulla base di Okinawa.
– La crescente influenza della potenza navale cinese è apparsa nello scorso marzo quando due navi da guerra cinesi sono entrate nel porto di Abu Dhabi (EAU), la prima volta per la marina cinese in MO.
● Il rafforzamento della potenza navale della Cina è una conseguenza inevitabile della sua crescente potenza economica,
● mentre è sfidata per la prima volta dalla fine della Seconda Guerra Mondiale l’influenza USA in Est Asia e MO.
o La novità dell’ascesa cinese a potenza militare regionale rispetto alla precedente strategia di risposta ad un attacco sulla sua costa o di guerra a Taiwan è la nuova strategia di “difesa d’alto mare” della sua marina militare,
o strategia che, assegnando alla marina il controllo delle rotte e la difesa delle navi commerciali lungo la costa cinese, lo stretto di Malacca e il Golfo Persico,
o secondo alcuni osservatori, porta la Cina ad un confronto più stretto con gli USA:
o Cina, potenza economica regionale, che allarga la prospettiva dei propri interessi economici e di sicurezza nel Sud-Est Asia.
● Altri osservatori ritengono invece che, né la disputa suFutenma, né l’ascesa della Cina a potenza regionale indicano uno spostamento sismico nella geopolitica dell’Asia-Pacifico,
– Entrato in carica nel settembre 2009, Hatoyama ha tentato di mantenere il consenso popolare all’interno (la popolazione di Okinawa è l’1% del totale, e secondo i calcoli politici del DPJ era indispensabile in vista delle elezioni per la Camera alta dell’11 luglio prossimo) e di negoziare al contempo un compromesso accettabile ad entrambi le parti sulla questione della base americana.
– Sotto pressione interna ed esterna, Hatoyama ha infine ammesso di aver raggiunto un accordo con gli USA sulla ricollocazione di Futenma, sempre all’interno dell’isola,
o dalla città di Ginowan, nel Sud che offre facile accesso allo stretto di Taiwan, all’area di Henoko, nel Nord meno popolato (la popolazione aveva sollevato anche questioni di impatto ambientale. La chiusura di Futenma è stata discussa per 15 anni da Giappone e Usa.
● Il governo Hatoyama ha giustificato la riconferma dell’alleanza con gli USA con preoccupazioni per la sicurezza nel N-E Asia a seguito dell’affondamento della nave da guerra sudcoreana, Cheonan.
o L’accordo sulla base, componente importante della sua piattaforma di politica estera con cui è giunto al governo, ha minato la credibilità politica di Hatoyama.
– Faz: L’ex primo ministro giapponese Hatoyama se l’è cercata con le sue promesse precipitose (spostamento della base militare americana di Futenma fuori dall’isola di Okinawa, o se possibile anche fuori dal Giappone), la sua condotta non professionale, le dichiarazioni contraddittorie e infine il voltafaccia sulla base di Futenma, che rivela una valutazione ingenua delle questioni di sicurezza nazionale e delle relazioni con gli USA. L’opposizione ha utilizzato la questione per attaccarlo; sono infine stati i suoi stessi compagni di partito a costringerlo a dimettersi a soli 8 mesi dall’incarico.
– È da vedere se il nuovo primo ministro Naoto Kan saprà recuperare alle elezioni di luglio il consenso politico per il DPJ, sceso dal 70 al 19%.
– Il Partito socialdemocratico ha abbandonato la coalizione di governo per protesta contro la scelta su Futenma, e ci tornerà se verrà ricusata tale decisione. Senza i socialdemocratici il DPJ sarà più flessibile sulla politica estera e di sicurezza.
o Quando lo scorso anno, scalzò i lib-dem al governo da 4 decenni, il DPJ si era impegnato ad attuare riforme: ridurre il potere della burocrazia e aumentare la spesa sociale.
o Il sistema politico giapponese è resistente alle riforme e ha accolto con scetticismo anche la proposta DPJ di aumento degli assegni famigliari; preoccupazioni per il crescente debito statale, dato che il DPJ rifiuta di aumentare le imposte.
o Non risolta neppure la questione Futenma dalla decisione di Hatoyama di tornare agli accordi 2006, trasferendo la base nel Nord, a Henoko, respinta dalla popolazione dell’isola e dai rappresentanti politici locali.
– Faz: il nuovo primo ministro giapponese Naoto Kan un realista, succede al sognatore Hatoyama; in un panorama politico giapponese caratterizzato da frazioni e gruppi è considerato un solitario,
o ed uno dei pochi politici giapponesi non orientato USA o Cina, ma verso l’Europa, dove ha più volte viaggiato e dove intrattiene rapporti con rappresentanti politici europei.
o Nel discorso di insediamento ha annunciato che perseguirà l’obiettivo posto da Hatoyama di creare una Associazione est-asiatica su modello UE.
– Naoto Kan, il nuovo 5° Primo ministro giapponese in 4 anni, succede a Yukio Hatoyama che si è dimesso anche come presidente del DPJ, partito di maggioranza alla Camera bassa.
– Naoto Kan, (63) ex vice-primo ministro, è un politico di prima generazione, diversamente da molti ex primi ministri non proviene dalla elite politica giapponese; nel 1980 si definì politico non tradizionalista “senza nome, organizzazione e denaro”. Suo padre era un uomo d’affari.
o Laureato in fisica applicata nel 1970 presso l’Istituto di Tecnologia di Tokyo, è stato attivista in diversi movimenti di protesta e in movimenti civici su abitazioni, sanità, inquinamento e ambiente; aveva creato la Associazione dei cittadini (shimin no kai), per elezioni pulite, contro l’utilizzo di grandi organizzazioni, come i sindacati o gruppi economici, etc.
o Ha collaborato con la leader femminista Fusae Ichikawa.
o Viene alla ribalta nazionale e internazionale quando nel 1996 – eletto ministro della Sanità e Welfare, nel governo di coalizione a guida liberal-democratica con Hashimoto primo ministro e scoperto che la burocrazia aveva celato uno scandalo in cui il suo ministero aveva consentito al vendita di sangue contaminato all’HIV, che aveva infettato migliaia di emofiliaci – chiede pubblicamente scusa e garantisce l’indennizzo dei pazienti infettati entrando per questo in collisione con la rigida burocrazia.
– Dopo tre tentativi falliti negli anni 1970, è stato eletto nel 1980 alla Camera bassa per la piccola Federazione Democratica Socialista, rieletto dieci volte per diversi raggruppamenti partitici;
– nel 1998 (1996, secondo Faz) ha partecipato con Hatoyama ed altri alla formazione del DPJ, di cui è stato due volte presidente.
– Nel 2004 è costretto a dimettersi da presidente DPJ dopo aver dovuto ammettere di non aver pagato pienamente i contributi pensionistici, e ritenuto coinvolto in uno scandalo.
– Hatoyama l’aveva nominato suo vice, e capo di un nuovo ufficio strategia, che doveva ridurre il potere della burocrazia; nominato alle Finanze ad inizio 2010.
– Diversamente dai suoi compagni di partito ha fatto capire che intende aumentare l’IVA per finanziare la spesa sociale.
– Gode di un forte consenso in Giappone, anche se non popolare come il ministro Esteri Katsuya Okada e il ministro Agricoltura, Infrastrutture, Trasporti e Turismo, Seiji Maehara, anch’esso ex presidente DPJ.
– In vista delle elezioni per la Camera Alta dell’11 luglio deve consolidare il partito lavorando con il gruppo guidato da Ichiro Ozawa, dietro al quale stanno circa 150 deputati; Ozawa si è dimesso dalla segreteria del partito contemporaneamente alle dimissioni di Hatoyama.
– Dato che Ozawa è implicato in scandali sul finanziamento del partito, molti membri DPJ chiedono a Kan di prendere le distanze da lui.
Kan avrebbe dato indicazioni di non assegnare a Ozawa un incarico importante nel nuovo governo o nel partito.
Japan base row causes regional ripples
WASHINGTON – A protest of more than 90,000 Okinawans on Sunday over the proposed relocation of a United States Marine Corps airbase in the southern Japanese prefecture has fueled speculation in Washington that the US-Japanese alliance may be facing a serious test with the election of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ),
and that such strains might have serious implications for the US’s ability to balance Chinese naval power in East Asia.
– Prior to taking office in September 2009, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s election platform included a call for reexamining Japan’s ties with the US, with a particular focus on the 50,000 US military personnel based in Japan.
– Now Hatoyama is facing the difficult task of negotiating a mutually agreeable basing arrangement with Washington while maintaining the support of a constituency who threw their backing behind his promises to renegotiate the relocation of the base at Futenma.
– The rally, which received wide media attention in both the US and Japan, comes after the Japanese government indicated last Friday that it would accept a plan to move the marine base on Okinawa – an announcement well received by those on both sides of the Pacific who have worried about Washington and Tokyo’s protracted impasse on the issue.
– "I think that the Japanese government is in a difficult position. They want to abide by their campaign promise but they’ve received such an enormous amount of pressure from the [Barack] Obama administration. It’s made them schizophrenic," John Feffer, co-director of Foreign Policy in Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies, told Inter Press Service.
"My hope is that the Obama administration will say ‘look, this base has little strategic utility. If we can get an agreement where the Pentagon gets what it wants, which is a contingency force that can deal with the nuclear weapons in North Korea if the North Korean regime collapses, then let’s talk about that and how the contingency can be met’," he said.
– Analysts are torn over whether the recent difficulties between the DPJ government and Washington are simply an overblown disagreement over the details of the long-planned relocation of the base at Futenma or a symptom of a weakening US-Japan alliance.
"Even if Mr Hatoyama eventually gives in on the base plan, we need a more patient and strategic approach to Japan. We are allowing a second-order issue to threaten our long-term strategy for East Asia," wrote Harvard University professor and Asia expert Joseph Nye in a January 7 New York Times op-ed.
– "Futenma, it is worth noting, is not the only matter that the new government has raised. It also speaks of wanting a more equal alliance and better relations with China, and of creating an East Asian community – though it is far from clear what any of this means," Nye said.
– Indeed, Hatoyama and the DPJ ran on a platform of creating a more equal alliance in its relations with the US and have already participated in some high-profile diplomatic exchanges with China.
Nye’s argument that Futenma, while perhaps a challenging component of the US-Japan alliance, is not the biggest issue at hand has been reflected this week by a spur of interest – most notably in articles in the New York Times and Washington Post – in China’s rapid buildup of naval power.
– While concerns over Futenma are worth addressing, much attention here in Washington has been focused on the shifting geopolitical forces in East Asia – changes which are hardly exemplified by the spat over the rebasing of the marines on Okinawa.
– The growing influence of Chinese naval power was on display last March when two Chinese warships docked in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, the first time the modern Chinese navy has made a port visit in the Middle East.
– Expansion of Chinese naval power is an inevitable component of China’s increasing economic power as the US sphere of influence in East Asia and the Middle East faces its first serious challenge since the end of World War II.
– China’s rise as a regional military power has been long predicted but the navy’s new strategy of "far sea defense" goes well beyond the previous, relatively narrow doctrine of responding to an attack on the Chinese coast or going to war over Taiwan.
– Instead, the new strategy would task the navy to patrol sea lanes and escort commercial vessels along China’s coast, the Strait of Malacca and the Persian Gulf.
– The expansion of the Chinese navy’s mission, according to some observers, brings Beijing closer to a confrontation with the US as China, the region’s economic powerhouse, begins to take a wider view of its economic and security interests in East and Southeast Asia.
– Others assert that neither the disagreement over Futenma nor the rising Chinese regional influence amount to a seismic shift in Asia-Pacific geopolitics.
– Recent reports from the Washington Post’s John Pomfret would suggest that Washington and Tokyo have come to an understanding on a broad outline of the rebasing of the Futenma base.
Hatoyama and the DPJ were quick to deny that such an agreement existed, an understandable response when facing down 90,000 of their constituents in Okinawa who object to any hint that the DPJ may back down from its position of renegotiating the basing agreement.
"[We’d] argue that on balance, the trend in recent weeks from the DPJ government has been to try to find a way to make a deal with the US, rather [than] spend its time trying to explain why it can’t make a deal," wrote Chris Nelson in the insider newsletter The Nelson Report.
– Nelson’s summary of the recent news of an agreement, of some sort, and the domestic political challenges facing Hatoyama in Okinawa are the real story beneath the surface.
– United States strategic interests are, indisputably, a component of the disagreement over Futenma but the real challenge lies in whether Hatoyama can present a plan for rebasing the Futenma airbase to his constituents without losing their support.
– Understandably, any sign that US interests in East Asia are threatened brings concern in Washington, but the challenge of negotiating a rebasing in Okinawa is a footnote in the bigger question facing Washington over what a growing Chinese regional influence will mean for the US naval presence in East Asia.
– Harvard International Relations Professor Stephen Walt argues on his blog that a rising China does not, inherently, pose an immediate threat or seismic shift in East Asian geopolitics. He predicts that Chinese economic growth will slow as its population ages and that while China’s military strength is growing, it has a long way to go before it becomes a true "peer competitor" of the US.
US base reversal draws ire on Okinawa
WASHINGTON – Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced on Monday that he would renege on his campaign promise to renegotiate the move of a controversial US airbase off the island of Okinawa.
Hatoyama’s announcement was greeted with outrage on Okinawa, as residents met his arrival on the island
on Sunday with angry protests and signs denouncing the decision to go through with the rebasing plan, which he had promised to renegotiate.
– Prior to taking office in September 2009, Hatoyama’s election platform included a call for re-examining Japan’s ties with the US, with a particular focus on the 50,000 US military personnel based in Japan.
After taking office, Hatoyama was faced with the difficult task of negotiating a mutually agreeable basing arrangement with Washington while maintaining the support of a constituency who threw their backing behind his promises to renegotiate the relocation of the Marine base.
– "I want to commend Prime Minister Hatoyama for making the difficult, but nevertheless correct, decision to relocate the Futenma facility inside Okinawa. We are working with the Japanese government to ensure that our agreement adopts Japanese proposals that will lighten the impact on the people of Okinawa," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters in Beijing on Monday.
"We are confident that the relocation plan that Japan and the United States are working to conclude will help establish the basis for future alliance cooperation," she continued.
– The disagreement over where or how to move the Marine Corps Air Station at Futenma to a less populated area had become a major point of disagreement between the Barack Obama White House and Hatoyama’s Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government.
With Monday’s announcement, Hatoyama brought a steady stream of criticism from members of his own governing coalition and an angry reception in Okinawa as residents heard reports that Hatoyama was likely to concede on the rebasing negotiations.
"[The announcement is] pretty distressing. It seems as though [Hatoyama’s] own personal feelings about the matter, reflected by the campaign pledge and after being elected, have given way to pressure from both within Japan and outside of Japan," John Feffer, co-director of Foreign Policy in Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies, told IPS.
– "He clearly felt the need to come to a decision by the end of the month with elections coming up. The Okinawans represent almost 1% of the Japanese population. Political calculations would suggest that they’re dispensable," Feffer said.
– The negotiations over Futenma had become the sticking point in relations with the Obama administration as Hatoyama sought to form a "more equal" relationship with the US while the White House pushed Hatoyama to honor the rebasing agreement from 2006.
– The plan will move the existing helicopter base from the center of Ginowan city in the south to the Henoko area in the north.
– Okinawa residents have raised concerns over the environmental impact of the rebasing and the size of the US military’s footprint on the island.
– The US military presence on Okinawa holds a strategic interest for Washington since the island’s southern location offers easy access to the Taiwan Strait.
– Recent security concerns in Northeast Asia after the sinking of the Cheonan – a South Korean warship which appears to have been sunk by a North Korean torpedo – have put new pressures on the Hatoyama government to reaffirm the Japan-US alliance.
– "I decided that it is of utmost importance that we place the Japan-US relationship on a solid relationship of mutual trust, considering the current situation in the Korean peninsula and in Asia," Hatoyama told reporters on Monday.
– Hatoyama was quick to point to the sinking of the Cheonan as a reason for patching up relations with Washington but some experts have argued that the relatively small size of the base at Futenma – it hosts 4,000 Marines out of the nearly 50,000 US military personnel based on Okinawa – should make the rebasing negotiation a less important component of the US-Japan alliance.
"I would say [concerns over stability on the Korean peninsula] are real in the sense that the Japanese government and the US government believe that the Cheonan incident suggests that the neighborhood of Northeast Asia is dangerous and requires military vigilance," said Feffer.
"The perception is real, however I think it’s unconnected to Futenma in that such a small number of Marines aren’t going to do much in a war between North and South Korea," Feffer continued.
– Hatoyama’s political future in Japan remains uncertain after his decision to concede the basing issue – one of, if not the most important, components of his foreign policy platform during last year’s election.
With Upper House elections scheduled for July 11, some observers have speculated that Hatoyama may have no choice but to step down if the DPJ performs poorly on election day.
Hatoyama’s political career may be in question but local politicians on Okinawa have vowed to prevent the construction of the new base.
"My guess is that we may see a different sort of alignment of forces after the Japanese election so this issue is far from settled. It took 15 years for [US and Japanese officials] to plan the closure of Futenma. I don’t think we’re going to see base construction any time soon," said Feffer.
(Inter Press Service)
Kan takes over the hot seat
By Purnendra Jain
ADELAIDE – Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan is the country’s fifth prime minister within four years following his selection on Friday as leader of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to succeed Yukio Hatoyama, who on Wednesday stepped down as prime minister and president of the majority party in the Lower House of parliament.
– Kan, who was later in the day confirmed as prime minister in the DPJ-dominated Lower House, moves up from the post of deputy prime minister to be the DPJ’s second prime minister. He will be looking to survive in the top job longer than his four predecessors; none lasted a full year in office.
– Kan, 63, differs from many former premiers in being a first-generation politician. He began his political career in the 1970s with three unsuccessful attempts for a parliamentary seat, in 1976, 1977 and 1979. He was finally elected to the Lower House in 1980 when he ran in a Tokyo electoral district with the small Democratic Socialist Federation. He has been re-elected since on different party tickets, before helping in 1998 to form the DPJ, for which he has twice previously served as president.
– One of Kan’s immediate tasks is to consolidate his party ahead of next month’s Upper House elections. In particular, he will have to work with the group led by Ichiro Ozawa. Some 150 Lower House DPJ parliamentarians are aligned to Ozawa, who resigned as party secretary general at the same time that Hatoyama stepped down.
– A political heavyweight and a master strategist, Ozawa has become a highly unpopular figure in recent years due to his alleged involvement in "money politics", and many within the DPJ want to see Kan distancing himself from Ozawa’s influence. Balancing the need for a political strategist while projecting a cleaner and fairer DPJ will test Kan’s leadership skills.
– Kan suggested on Thursday that he may not give Ozawa a key post in a new government or party management, the Wall St Journal reported. "Mr Ozawa should stay quiet for a while, and that would be good for him, the DPJ, and Japanese politics," the report quoted Kan as saying. "We have to value Mr Hatoyama’s feelings that the DPJ should restart as a fresh party free from money scandals."
– In policy terms, it is highly unlikely that Kan will depart significantly in the short term from those pursued by the DPJ under Hatoyama. As Kan observed at a press conference after he was elected as party president, "I hope to carry over the torch of rebuilding Japan passed on to me by Hatoyama."
– The new prime minister starts off in office with strong public popularity after a career linked closely with grassroot concerns. After graduating in 1970 in applied physics from the Tokyo Institute of Technology, where he was active in various protest movements, he became involved in organizing citizens’ movements related to the problems of housing, medical facilities, pollution and environmental protection.
– Kan also worked closely with Fusae Ichikawa – a women’s suffrage leader – and acted as her campaign manager for her election to the Upper House in 1974.
– When this author interviewed Kan in 1980 in his Tokyo office, he summed up his difficulty as a young non-traditional Japanese politician by saying na mo naku, soshiki mo kane mo naku (neither name, nor organization, nor money). No politician in Japan at that time would think of being successful without those qualifications.
– He had formed the shimin no kai (Citizen’s Association) group, which stood for clean elections, and refused to use either big organizations, such as labor unions or business groups, or "unaccounted money", and in taking an "anti-money politics" stance became a symbol of a new politics in Japan.
– Kan was thrust into the national and international spotlight after being appointed Health and Welfare Minister in 1996 in the coalition government led by the Liberal Democratic Party’s Ryutaro Hashimoto. After his appointment, he learned that his ministry had permitted the sale and use of HIV-tainted blood that infected thousands of hemophiliacs. His public apology and guarantee of compensation to infected patients contrasted with an unbending bureaucracy that had not wanted even to admit any wrong-doing.
– His record was tarnished when he was forced to step down as DPJ leader in 2004 after admitting he failed to fully pay his national pension contribution and was allegedly involved in an affair, but he enjoys strong support in Japan, although not as popular as Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada and Seiji Maehara, the present Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Minister and also a former DPJ leader.
Purnendra Jain is professor of Japanese studies in the Center for Asian Studies at Australia’s Adelaide University.
Japan – Hatoyamas gebrochene Versprechen
Yukio Hatoyama ist der vierte japanische Ministerpräsident in Folge, der sich nur ein Jahr oder weniger im Amt halten konnte. Er scheiterte an den eigenen Zielvorgaben – und macht den Weg frei für eine neue Koalition.
Von Petra Kolonko, Tokio
Als in den letzten Tagen und Wochen der Druck auf Japans Ministerpräsidenten Hatoyama stieg, sein Amt aufzugeben, hörte man aus dem Lager der Regierungspartei DPJ vor allem ein Argument gegen einen solchen Rückzug: Man wolle nicht, wie über Jahrzehnte die Liberaldemokraten, ständig die Ministerpräsidenten austauschen. Man wolle nicht wie sie auf ein Wechseln der Gesichter setzen, sondern auf einen Wandel in der Politik.
Nun aber ist es doch zur Auswechslung gekommen.
– Yukio Hatoyama ist der vierte Ministerpräsident in Folge, der sich in Japan nur ein Jahr oder weniger im Amt halten konnte. Noch am Dienstag, als seine Parteifreunde der Demokratischen Partei in den Hinterzimmern der Macht schon gegen ihn entschieden hatten, erklärte Hatoyama trotzig, er werde im Amt bleiben und weiter kämpfen.
– Am Mittwoch musste er mit Tränen in den Augen seinen Rückzug nach nur acht Monaten Amtszeit bekannt geben.
Militärflughafen Futenma: Anwohner klagen über Gefahren und Lärmbelästigung
– Man kann Yukio Hatoyama noch nicht einmal als glücklos bezeichnen. Das Futenma-Debakel, an dem er letztlich scheiterte, war sein eigenes Verschulden. Seine voreiligen Versprechungen, sein unprofessionelles Vorgehen, seine widersprüchlichen Äußerungen und seine letztliche Umkehr zeigten einen Mangel an Übersicht, Beratungsresistenz und eine fast naive Einschätzung von Fragen der nationalen Sicherheit und des japanischen Verhältnisses zu den Vereinigten Staaten.
Kritiker in den eigenen Reihen
– Im Wahlkampf des vergangenen Jahres hatte Hatoyama den Bewohnern von Okinawa versprochen, er werde sich für eine Verlegung des amerikanischen Militärflughafens Futenma außerhalb der Insel Okinawa oder besser noch außerhalb Japans einsetzen.
– Futenma liegt inmitten eines Wohngebietes und die Anwohner klagen über Gefährdung und Lärmbelästigung. Hatoyama kündigte an, er wolle eine Vereinbarung der LDP-Regierung aus dem Jahr 2006 nicht honorieren, die eine Verlegung des Flughafens ins nördliche Okinawa vorsieht. Doch nach acht Monaten ungeschickten Agierens und erfolgloser Suche nach einem Ersatz-Standort konnte Hatoyama vor einer Woche nur kleinlaut feststellen, dass es bei dem Plan von 2006 bleiben werde.
Bis dahin war der Fall Futenma durch die von Hatoyama öffentlich betriebene Umschau nach neuen Lösungen von einem Anliegen Okinawas zu einem Problem geworden, das ganz Japan bewegte.
– Sicherheitspolitiker sahen mit Sorge eine Belastung des Verhältnisses zu den Vereinigten Staaten, die an der Lösung von 2006 festhalten wollten. Die Bewohner von Okinawa forderten Wahlversprechen ein, und die Opposition nutzte das Thema für weidliche Kritik am Ministerpräsidenten.
– Es waren aber schließlich die Kritiker in den eigenen Reihen, die Hatoyama aus dem Amt zwangen. Es war nicht allein die Führungs- und Entscheidungsschwäche des Ministerpräsidenten, oder sein peinliches Scheitern in der Futenma-Frage. Hinzu kamen Parteispenden-Affären um ihn selbst und den Parteivorsitzenden Ozawa. Kurz vor der Oberhauswahl im Juli sind dadurch die Umfragewerte der DPJ- Regierung, die im vergangenen September bei 70 Prozent standen, auf 19 Prozent gesunken. Die Oberhaus-Wahlen, so fürchteten die DPJ-Parlamentarier, wären mit Hatoyama als Ministerpräsident und Parteivorsitzendem nicht zu gewinnen gewesen.
Das System zeigt sich resistent
Keineswegs sicher ist, ob Hatoyamas Nachfolger, den die Parlamentarier der Demokratischen Partei an diesem Freitag küren wollen, das Ruder herumreißen und die DPJ bis zum 11. Juli, dem wahrscheinlichen Datum der Oberhaus-Wahlen, aus dem Tief der Wählergunst führen kann. Denn die DPJ-Regierung hat nicht nur in der Futenma-Frage bis lang die Wähler enttäuscht.
– Von Reformen, ja sogar einer „Revolution“ im politischen System Japans hatte die DPJ gesprochen, als sie im vergangenen Jahr die vier Jahrzehnte währende Herrschaft der Liberaldemokraten beendete. Sie schickte sich an, die Macht der Bürokratie zu begrenzen und die Sozialausgaben zu erhöhen. Bislang stießen ihre Maßnahmen aber nicht auf Begeisterung. Das japanische System zeigt sich resistent und selbst eine von der DPJ verfügte Erhöhung des Kindergeldes wird mit Skepsis aufgenommen. Viele sehen auch mit Sorge die anwachsende Staatsverschuldung, da die DPJ sich auch Steuererhöhungen verweigert.
– Auch die Futenma-Frage ist mit der Entscheidung Hatoyamas, zu der Vereinbarung von 2006 zurückzukehren, nicht gelöst, nicht einmal mit seinem Rücktritt. Zwar hat Hatoyama die Schuld am Bruch eines Wahlversprechens auf sich genommen. Doch gibt es auf der Insel Okinawa großen Widerstand gegen die neue alte Lösung. Nicht nur die Mehrheit der Bevölkerung, sondern auch Lokalpolitiker sind gegen die Verlegung des Militär-Flughafens nach Henoko in den Norden der Insel. Mit Widerstand bei der Umsetzung des Plans ist zu rechnen.
Flexibler in der Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik
– Die Enttäuschung mit der Demokratischen Partei ist groß. Die DPJ kann nur darauf hoffen, dass die Wähler noch keine Rückkehr der alten, noch viel weniger reformfreudigen LDP wollen, die sie im letzten Jahr von der Macht vertrieben haben. Immerhin konnte die DPJ mit dem Rücktritt von Hatoyama und seines Parteivorsitzenden Ozawa jetzt auch einen Partei-Spendenskandal hinter sich lassen.
Der Wechsel an der Spitze der DPJ, die im Unterhaus über eine komfortable Mehrheit verfügt, macht auch den Weg frei für eine neue Koalition, vielleicht nach der Oberhauswahl. Die Sozialdemokratische Partei hatte in der vergangenen Woche die Regierungskoalition aus Protest gegen die Futenma-Entscheidung des Ministerpräsidenten verlassen. Sie will nur dann zurückkehren, wenn die Futenma-Entscheidung rückgängig gemacht wird. Ohne die Sozialdemokratische Partei ist die DPJ in Zukunft in der Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik flexibler. Die DPJ könnte sich mit einer oder mehreren der neuen Parteien verbünden, die mehr in der Mitte des politischen Spektrums liegen.
Japans neuer Ministerpräsident – Naoto Kan: Realist mit Faible für Europa
Nach dem überraschenden Rücktritt Hatoyamas hat das japanische Parlament mit Naoto Kan einen Politiker an die Spitze des Landes gewählt, der mit manchen Traditionen bricht. Er kommt nicht aus der politischen Elite Japans und ist statt nach Amerika oder China nach Europa orientiert.
Von Petra Kolonko, Tokio
– Auf den Träumer folgt ein Realist. Nach dem überraschenden Rücktritt von Yukio Hatoyama hat Japans Parlament den bisherigen stellvertretenden Ministerpräsidenten Naoto Kan zum neuen Regierungschef gewählt. Kan ist der erste Ministerpräsident in Japan seit vierzehn Jahren, der nicht aus der politischen Elite Japans kommt. Sein Vater war ein Geschäftsmann, der den Sohn Ingenieurwesen studieren ließ. Kans berufliche Karriere begann als Patent-Berater.
– In die Politik kam er über das Engagement in Bürgerinitiativen, 1980 gewann er einen ersten Sitz im Parlament als Vertreter einer kleinen Partei, die sich für Umweltbelange engagierte und Junior-Koalitionspartner der damals regierenden Liberaldemokraten war.
– Große Popularität erlangte Kan, als er im Jahr 1996 als Gesundheitsminister aufdeckte, dass die Bürokratie einen Skandal um mit HIV kontaminierte Blutspenden vertuscht hatte. Im Jahr 1996 gründete Kan gemeinsam mit dem jetzt zurückgetretenen Yukio Hatoyama und anderen die Demokratische Partei, die ihn nun zum dritten Mal zu ihrem Vorsitzenden gewählt hat.
– Kan ist erfahrener Parlamentarier und bereits zehn Mal in das Parlament gewählt worden. Als die Demokratische Partei unter Yukio Hatoyama im vergangenen Jahr die vier Jahrzehnte lange Herrschaft der Liberaldemokratischen Partei beendete, ernannte Hatoyama seinen Mitstreiter Kan zu seinem Stellvertreter im Amt des Ministerpräsidenten und zum Leiter eines neuen Strategie-Büros, das die Macht der Bürokratie beschneiden sollte. Da die DPJ nur wenige regierungserfahrene Politiker hatte, galt Kan von Anfang an als eine der wichtigen Säulen der neuen Regierung. Zu Beginn dieses Jahres übernahm er das Amt des Finanzministers.
Kan will das Vertrauen in seine Partei wiederherstellen
– Im Gegensatz zu seinen Parteifreunden ließ er in seiner Amtszeit durchblicken, dass er eine Erhöhung der Mehrwertsteuer zur Finanzierung der steigenden Sozialausgaben für nötig hält. Kans Priorität ist, das Vertrauen der Bevölkerung in die Demokratische Partei wieder herzustellen, das durch das gebrochene Wahlversprechen Hatoyamas aber auch durch die Parteispenden-Affären beschädigt ist. Kan will die Wahlkampffinanzierung strenger beobachten.
In puncto Korrektheit hat Kan schon ein gutes Beispiel gegeben. Als während seiner Amtszeit als Gesundheitsminister bekannt wurde, dass er seine Beiträge zur Rentenkasse nicht bezahlt hatte, trat er von seinem Ministeramt zurück und machte sich zur Buße auf eine Pilgerreise durch 88 buddhistische Tempel. Der neue Ministerpräsident gilt als Einzelgänger in der durch Fraktionen und Gruppen geprägten japanischen Politik.
Er ist ein guter Redner und kann in Auseinandersetzungen heißblütig werden. Seine gelegentlichen Wutausbrüche haben ihm den Spitznamen Ira-Kan eingetragen.
Der 63 Jahre alte Kan gehört zu den wenigen japanischen Politikern, die nach Europa und nicht nach Amerika oder China orientiert sind. Kan schätzt italienisches Essen und ist Fußballfan. Er hat viele europäische Staaten bereist und pflegt Kontakt mit europäischen Politikern. In seiner Antrittsrede hat er angekündigt, dass er Hatoyamas Ziel von der Bildung einer Ostasiatischen Gemeinschaft nach dem Vorbild der EU weiterverfolgen wird.