L’India cerca di ritagliarsi un ruolo strategico nell’Asia Centrale tramite la costruzione di armamenti, anche per contrastare la presenza del Pakistan
- La prima base militare indiana all’estero diventerà presto operativa in Tajikistan
- L’India ha offerto di riabilitare la centrale idrica Varzob-1 in Tajikistan e di fornire il Tajikistan di addestramento contro il terrorismo
- Meno in vista e più significativo l’accordo tra i due paesi di cooperazione nella Base Aerea di Ayni, che diventerà operativa entro la fine dell’anno. L’India sta costruendo tre hangar ad Ayni, due dei quali saranno usati dagli aerei indiani. L’India collocherà qui circa 12 MIG-29 bombardieri. Il terzo hangar sarà usato dalla forza aerea del Tajikistan.
- Dehli sostiene che si tratta solo di un rinnovamento della base.
- L’India e il Tajikistan erano entrambi contro il regime talebano. L’India si impegnò come "consigliere" della afgana Alleanza del Nord sulle strategie da adottare ma anche come finanziatore (rifornì l’Alleanza con 8millioni di dollari). Si operò inoltre fornendo tecnici dal Centro di Ricerca dell’Aviazione per riparare i sovietici Mi-17 e Mi-35, elicotteri d’attacco utilizzati dall’Alleanza; è dal Tajikistan che l’India incanalò questi aiuti.
- Il significato della regione del Tajikistan è soprattutto connesso alla sicurezza essendo in prossimità di aree dove sono presenti gruppi terroristi anti India e jihadisti, ma anche in prossimità del territorio dove Pakistan e Cina sono impegnate in cooperazioni militari di grande portata. La regione rappresenta quindi un punto di monitoraggio per l’India. Il Tajikistan rappresenta anche una posizione (Asia Centrale) di forte interesse per la sua ricchezza di gas.
- Dopo la caduta del regime talebano l’India era decisa a non perdere questo punto strategico e a non permettere l’influenza del Pakistan in Afghanistan; questo è il motivo per cui è rimasta ad Ayni dopo la caduta del regime. Dal Tajikistan l’India potrà attaccare il Pakistan.
- Questa presenza indiana in Tajikistan le ha permesso di giocare un ruolo importante nella ricostruzione dell’Afghanistan dal 2002.
- Una base ad Ayni permette all’India di proiettare la sua influenza nell’Asia Centrale.
- Il Pakistan si sente "circondato" a causa di questa base aerea indiana. Anche la cooperazione tra Tajikistan e Cina sta crescendo, forse motivata dall’aumento della presenza degli Usa nella regione. Nel caso del coinvolgimento dell’India non c’è dubbio che sia un fattore che pesa sulla Cina. La forte pressione della Russia ha forzato la decisione di mantenere unite Russia e India nel controllo della base aerea di Ayni.
- Gli Usa non sono molto preoccupati dell’ingresso in Asia Centrale dell’India, in quanto la sua crescita di influenza qui è strumento di controllo su quella russa e cinese nella regione.
India’s foray into Central Asia
By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE – Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov’s five-day visit to
India that ended on Thursday might not have grabbed much media
attention in New Delhi, but it is in Tajikistan that India is taking
quiet strides toward furthering its ambition of becoming a global
player: India’s first military base abroad will become operational
in Tajikistan soon.
During Rakhmonov’s visit, the two countries signed pacts on
strengthening cooperation in the fields of energy, science and
technology, foreign-office consultation, and cultural exchange.
India also offered to rehabilitate the Varzob-1 hydropower plant in
Tajikistan.
Two days before the Tajik president’s visit, the India-Tajikistan
joint working group (JWG) on counter-terrorism met in Delhi. At the
JWG meeting, the two sides agreed on bilateral mechanisms
to exchange information on various aspects of terrorism, including
the financing of terrorism, that affect their two countries. India
also offered to provide Tajikistan with counter-terrorism training.
This cooperation is, however, just the tip of the iceberg. Less
visible and more significant is the India-Tajik cooperation at Ayni
Air Base, near the Tajik capital Dushanbe. Work on the base is
expected to be completed next month, and the base will become
operational by the year’s end.
India is constructing three hangars at Ayni, two of which will be
used by Indian aircraft. India will station about 12 MiG-29 bombers
there. The third hangar will be used by the Tajik air force. The
Indian Air Force (IAF) is also stationing trainer aircraft under a
2002 defense-cooperation agreement whereby India has been training
the Tajik air force.
Neither New Delhi nor Dushanbe officially admits to an Indian air
base at Ayni. Delhi maintains that it is only renovating this base.
The first reports of India’s intentions surfaced in 2002, and
speculation gathered momentum in 2003 and into April this year when
reports indicated that India’s base at Ayni would become operational
by end-2006.
India and Tajikistan were on the same side during the Afghan civil
war in the 1990s. Both opposed the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and
backed the Northern Alliance. In the late 1990s, India set up a
25-bed hospital at Farkhor, near Afghanistan’s northern border,
where injured Northern Alliance fighters battling the Taliban were
treated.
According to Rahul Bedi, Jane’s Defense Weekly’s correspondent in
Delhi, India supplied the Northern Alliance with
high-altitude-warfare equipment worth US$8 million. The Northern
Alliance also received input on strategy from Indian "advisers".
Technicians from the Aviation Research Center of the Research and
Analysis Wing (India’s external intelligence agency) repaired the
Northern Alliance’s Soviet-made Mi-17 and Mi-35 attack helicopters.
It was out of Tajikistan that India channeled this help to the
Northern Alliance.
It is Tajikistan’s geographic location that has drawn India to this
former Soviet republic. Tajikistan shares borders with China,
Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. A narrow stretch of Afghan
territory separates Tajikistan from Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
The significance of this region for India’s security is immense. It
is close to areas where scores of camps for jihadist and anti-India
terrorist groups are based, and it is in the proximity of territory
where Pakistan and China are engaged in massive military
cooperation. Besides, Tajikistan is in Central Asia, a gas-rich
region in which India has growing interests.
There are several reasons underpinning India’s interest in a base at
Tajikistan, one being the Pakistan factor. The Pakistani incursion
at Kargil in 1999 laid bare the failure of Indian intelligence and
opened India’s eyes to the need for a military presence outside its
borders, Phunchok Stobdan, research fellow at the Institute for
Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, told Asia Times Online.
Such a presence in Tajikistan, India realized, would enable it to
monitor anti-India activities in the region.
After the fall of the Taliban regime, India was determined not to
lose the foothold it had gained in Afghanistan thanks to its ties
with the Northern Alliance in the late 1990s. Delhi was anxious not
to allow Pakistani influence to grow again in Afghanistan. This was
behind India’s decision to remain at Ayni/Farkhor after the fall of
the Taliban, say Indian intelligence sources. A military base in
Tajikistan is attractive as it also enhances India’s options in the
event of war with Pakistan. From Tajikistan, India would be able to
strike Pakistan’s rear.
It is its presence at Ayni that has enabled India to play a
significant role in Afghanistan’s reconstruction and stability since
2002. Since Pakistan does not allow India overland access to
Afghanistan, India has had to channel its economic and relief
assistance to Afghanistan through Farkhor. The IAF airlifts supplies
to Ayni, which are then transported to Farkhor and onward to
Afghanistan by road.
India’s growing military profile in the region might have been
prompted by the need to counter Pakistan’s influence, but there is
more to Ayni Air Base than India-Pakistan rivalry. A base at Ayni
enables India to project power in Central Asia. It is testimony to
the fact that India is no longer content with a geostrategic role in
South Asia; its ambitions extend outside the region as well.
India’s foray into Central Asia is also fueled by its interests in
the region’s vast gas reserves. India is among the actors in the
"New Great Game" – the scramble for Central Asia’s resources. Bedi
points out that "though India remains powerless to engineer or
overtly influence the ‘New Game’, its size, military and nuclear
capability make it a not altogether insignificant part of the
complex jigsaw puzzle".
Not surprisingly, India’s "forward policy" in Central Asia has
generated unease in Islamabad and Beijing. Pakistan has perceived
India’s air base at Ayni as part of the Indian attempt to "encircle
Pakistan".
As for China, steps are afoot to counterbalance India’s rising
profile in Tajikistan. Stobdan points out that Chinese-Tajik
cooperation is growing. Visits by senior Chinese leaders to
Tajikistan have been followed up with generous military assistance
to that country. While growing Chinese engagement with the Tajiks is
perhaps motivated more by the increasing US presence in the region,
India is no doubt a factor weighing on Chinese minds.
India has come under pressure over Ayni Air Base from an unexpected
quarter – Russia, its friend of several decades during the Cold War
years. Russian arm-twisting seems to have resulted in India agreeing
to joint maintenance with Russia of Ayni Air Base. While economic
consideration might have played a role in India considering joint
maintenance of the base, arm-twisting seems to have forced the
decision.
India’s new friend the United States, however, is not very worried
about Delhi’s foray into Central Asia, as it sees India’s growing
profile there as a check on Russian and Chinese influence in the
region.
India has become the fourth power after Russia, the US and Germany
to have a base in Central Asia. As a small but not insignificant
player in the "New Great Game" in Central Asia, India announced that
it had interests beyond its immediate neighborhood. With the air
base at Ayni, India has signaled that it is a keen contestant in
Central Asia’s "great base race" as well.
Sudha Ramachandran is an independent journalist/researcher based in
Bangalore.